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Tafsiri na uchambuzi wa matokeo ya udiwani

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Kitila Mkumbo, Oct 28, 2012.

  1. Kitila Mkumbo

    Kitila Mkumbo Verified User

    #1
    Oct 28, 2012
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    Hadi dakika hii matokeo yanaonyesha kwamba katika Kata 29, CHADEMA wameshinda katika kata 5 and TLP (1) na CCM kushinda katika kata zilizobaki.

    Kwa muono wa karibu unaweza ukadhani kwamba CHADEMA wamepoteza sana katika uchaguzi huu. Hata hivyo ukiyachunguza matokeo haya kwa ukaribu utaona kwamba CHADEMA wamepata mafanikio makubwa na CCM wametelemka.

    Tukumbuke kwamba CHADEMA walikuwa na kata mbili za kuzilinda katika uchaguzi huu ambazo ni Rombo na Mvomero. Kata hizi wamefanikiwa kuzilinda na kuongeza zingine tatu, ambazo ni Mlangila (Ludewa), Ipole na Daraja Mbili (zote hizi zilikuwa za CCM). Kwa hiyo wamelinda kata zao na kuzipokonya zingine tatu kutoka mikononi mwa CCM.

    Na yote hii ni ndani ya miezi 24 tu tangu uchaguzi mkuu ufanyike. Kwa hiyo kimehesabu CCM wameshuka kwa 11.1% na CHADEMA wamepanda kwa 60%! So, CDM keep up the momentum!
     
  2. S

    Skillionare JF-Expert Member

    #2
    Oct 28, 2012
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    Word..!
     
  3. Kigarama

    Kigarama JF-Expert Member

    #3
    Oct 28, 2012
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    Huko kupanda au kushuka kwa asilimia ukokotozi wake unaegemea kwenye msingi upi?

    Asilimia 60 za CHADEMA zinatokana na nini na hizi aslimia 11.1 za CCM nazo pia zinatokana na nini?

    Je, kata hizi 29 ndizo kata zote za Tanzania?
     
  4. Invisible

    Invisible Admin Staff Member

    #4
    Oct 28, 2012
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    Ok, kuna udhaifu gani unauona upande wa upinzani ndugu Kitila Mkumbo? Umeridhika na matokeo haya? Unadhani kuna sehemu mlikosea na panahitaji marekebisho?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  5. Kurunzi

    Kurunzi JF-Expert Member

    #5
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Maswali mazuri sana bila kusahau rasimali fedha na muda muda unalingana na matokeo hayo? ni vema mkakaa na kufanya tadhimini.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  6. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

    #6
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Namna nyingine ya kuangalia ni kuwa labda ujumbe wa CDM bado haujaeleweka sana, haujakubalika, au haujafikika vizuri kwa wananchi.

    Kama watu wangekuwa wanapima hamasa, na mikutano ya watu na jinsi ambavyo CDM jina lake limekuwa saturated kwenye jamii ya Watanzania ni wazi kuwa matokeo haya yalitakiwa yawe CCM viti 5 na CDM viti hivyo vingine. Matokeo haya yanaakisi yale ya Uchaguzi Mkuu ambapo pamoja na mengi sana CDM haikuweza hata kushinda viti 50 vya ubunge licha ya jina lake kutangaa sana mwaka 2010.

    Jambo ambalo ni la hatari (kwa chama cha siasa) ni kuangalia "nje" yake kama sababu ya kutofanya vizuri zaidi. Kama CCM ikiwa dhaifu namna hii bado inaweza kushinda, itakuwaje ikija kupata nguvu?
     
  7. Chilisosi

    Chilisosi JF-Expert Member

    #7
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Chadema wamefanya vizuri
     
  8. Kitila Mkumbo

    Kitila Mkumbo Verified User

    #8
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Tunaendelea kufanya uchambuzi kwa kila kata na idadi ya kura tulizopata na kulinganisha na zile za 2010. Kwa vyovyote vile tumepiga hatua ukilinganisha na 2010. Lakini tulipaswa kufanya vizuri zaidi.

    Kumbuka pia kwamba chaguzi za kata na serikali za mitaa siku zote zimekuwa ngumu kwa upinzani ukilinganisha na ubunge na hata urais. Ndio maana katika wabunge wetu wengi tulionao wengi walishinda bila kushinda madiwani. More work is needed katika haya maeneo.

    In any case there is nothing to celebrate from these results for CCM lovers.
     
  9. sifongo

    sifongo JF-Expert Member

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    Oct 29, 2012
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    Binafsi nawapongeza CHADEMA kwa kulinda majimbo yao pia kuongeza hayo matatu, japo sijaridhishwa na hayo matokeo ukilinganisha na tunavyoamini kuwa sasa Wananchi wamezinduka na wanataka mabadiliko, safari bado ni ndefu.

    Tunaweza kusema pengine CCM wametoa hongo na kununua shahada za kupigia kura kama tunavyoamini siku zote lakini kama kweli elimu ya uraia ingekuwa imewaingia Wananchi kisawa sawa basi matokeo yangekuwa tofauti leo.

    Maoni yangu kwa CHADEMA ni kuongeza nguvu zaidi huko vijijini, tutaimba CCM ni mafisadi lakini tunaojua na kuhoji ni watu wa mjini, tukiona Nyumba ya Daniel Yona tunaipiga picha na kuiweka humu jf na kutiana hasira basi, lakini huko vijijini hawaoni tofauti ya kipindi cha Nyerere na sasa, kama ni nyumba za udongo ndizo walizokuwa wakitumia tangu miaka hiyo, kama CCM imebadilika au haijabadilika wao hawajui la msingi kwao ni amani na matumbo yashibe.

    M4C ONGEZENI JUHUDI NA HONGERENI KWA KUONGEZA MAJIMBO.
     
  10. n

    ni_mtazamo_tu Senior Member

    #10
    Oct 29, 2012
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    washindwa na walegee hahahaha.. By the way sina chama cha siasa na hata kitambulisho cha kupiga kura sijachukua na sitochukua mpaka kije chama cha sheria za kiislam coz ni hicho pekee kinachoweza kuleta haki na usawa kwa wananchi wote mbali na hapo hapana, raisi aliyepita alikuwa mwizi na mkewe kaiba sana, huyu wa sasa watu wanasema mdini ila hana udini wowote ule ni brazameni tu na mshamba ndio maana kila siku anatembea duniani, mbowe brazameni pia akajenge madisco tu, silaha ana udini nd atatumikia mno kanisa, lipumba msomi mzuri bt ndio wale wale so sioni wa kumchagua
     
  11. S

    Salary Slip JF-Expert Member

    #11
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Ni bora tusubiri matokeo yote yatangazwe kabla ya kufanya tathimini ya jumla.

    Tusisahau kuwa kuna mamilioni ya watanzania ambao hawafuatilii namna nchi inavyoendeshwa.Wao wanajihusisha na ufuatiliaji wa mambo ya siasa kama kuna uchaguzi tu na uchaguzi ukipita kwa wao ndio habari zote zinazohusiana na mambo ya siasa,wanasiasa na vyama vya siasa ndio zimepita.

    Sio watanzania wato wanaelewa kama kuna kitu kilikuwa kinaitwa m4c na sababu kubwa wao siasa sio muhimu ila muhimu ni kupiga kura na zaidi kiupigia ccm tu.Hili ndio tatizo kubwa la watanzania wengi.

    Watanzania wengi wanachagua ccm kwa mazoea tu na wala si kwa kupima mwenendo wa chama na wanachama wake.
     
  12. Kitila Mkumbo

    Kitila Mkumbo Verified User

    #12
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Kuna haja ya kuangalia upya matumizi ya mikutano ya hadhara. They are good, but not enough by themselves in the context of TZ politics.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  13. Mbelwa Germano

    Mbelwa Germano JF-Expert Member

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    Oct 29, 2012
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    CCM ina mtaji mkubwa wa wanachama/wafuasi ambao hawako tayari kuona mabadiliko na wako well committed katika kupiga kura tofauti na CDM.Bado tupo kwenye siasa za ufuasi/uchama nje ya misingi ya hoja.
     
  14. zenmoster

    zenmoster JF-Expert Member

    #14
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    mpaka kieleweke doctor.. non stop...
     
  15. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #15
    Oct 29, 2012
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    CDM wamepanda kwa 60% .. ?
    Hapo kidoooogo hauko sawa, ungeyaacha hayo kwanza.
    Labda uangalie Arumeru na Shinyanga kama ni viti mlivyopoteza unnecessarily na nawapa pongezi sana kwa kunyakua Mlangila .
    Rombo na mvomero ..... yeeah but no.
     
  16. M

    Mboko JF-Expert Member

    #16
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    Ndugu mwanakijiji nguvu unayosemea wewe itoke wapi kwa ccm au naweza sema nguvu hiyo itatokea pale tu ambapo wataongeza dau kwa wananchi Wapumbavu ambao wako tayari kupata viongozi watakaowanyanyasa baada ya kushinda kwa kuwahonga 10,000 hadi Laki 1 sasa huu ni uwendawazimu wa chama hiki kwani hata wewe Mzee Mwanakijiji unafahamu fika nini mtaji wa hawa watu.

    Ni kwamba umaskini wa watu ambao hata uwaambie nini hawawezi kusikia mtu anauza kadi yake kwa chupa ya mataptap au kilo ya chumvi Lol.

    Mie nilishuhudia watu wakipewa kilo za chumvi machozi yalinitoka nikasema hii sasa ni dharau na wale watu nikawapa ukweli lakini hawakusikia so tuko na kazi kubwa ya kuwatoa hawa wezi Ccm nawe pia umo Mzee mwanakijiji do something let us change tutatoka tu.
     
  17. F

    FJM JF-Expert Member

    #17
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Kitila Mkumbo

    Ukiangalia figures toka baadhi ya kata ni wazi kuna huge swing, nadhani nyingi ni between 40-60%. Hata hivyo kwa ngazi ya Kata itakuwa ngumu zaidi - kwa sasa. Inabidi kuanzia kwenye ubunge then take a 'reverse' gear. Hii approach inaweza kuwa more effective.
     
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  18. Nduka

    Nduka JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Mkuu Invisible kwa wataalamu wa lugha hii tunaiita kejeli. Yaan umeauliza swali ambalo lenyewe ndio jibu. Kifupi mhadhiri mwenzangu alipaswa afanye hayo uliyomuuliza na si kuja na visingizio vya Chama chake kushindwa.
     
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  19. Mwana Mtoka Pabaya

    Mwana Mtoka Pabaya JF-Expert Member

    #19
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Shule ya kata haikukufundisha hesabu au wewe ni wa Visiwa vya Zimbabwe?

    Kutoka viti viwili mpaka vitano ni ongezeko la asilimia 60.

    3/5 x 100 = 60%

    CCM, walikuwa na viti 27 wamenyang'anywa vitatu na hilo ni anguko kwa asilimia 11.1

    3/27 x 100 = 11.1%

    Bado huelewi?
     
  20. Z

    Zinjathropus JF-Expert Member

    #20
    Oct 29, 2012
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    Inaeleweka vita vya mitaani ni vigumu sana sijui ni wape ongera au pole, lakini strategy lazima zibadilike mapema wapambe nuksi ni cost kubwa sana kwa CDM in terms of recruiting wapiganaji wengine.

    Hivi wewe unadhani mtu anaetumia mtandao wa JF na yupo 2000miles huyo atakuwa anajua lolote la halisi lilipo Tanznania wengi ni wabangaizaji tu na kubahatisha kwenye ubishi wao na wakitegemea JF hii hii as a source to inform them and formulate arguments.

    Halafu anakuja mtu anajiita sijui Nicholas. Yeye ni kutetea kwa ujinga hata panapo hitaji elezewa huo muda hana. Ukizingatia wengine wanatumia/rely kwenye JF for much of what is going on huko makwao these sort of characters are a put off, hapa uongei na watu kama unavyoenda vijijini most know the score what next.

    CDM lazima ielewe siasa za mtaani ziwe za mtaani lakini JF lazima ikitumie kama chombo cha kutoa habari halisi na mwasali yatakuwepo mengine yenye malengo ya kutoa kasoro za chama, au uongozi kwa njia za democracy wanazozifahamu wao hupo walipo. Watu wanaokipenda chama wakitetee kwa hoja na si kwa design za matusi na kejeli au kuja na mi-Id mia moja ya kejeli.

    Hivi ni vita vya Taifa lakini si vita ya CDM tu, wanaweza kuwa viongozi wetu wa mbele lakini sote we are against the status quo, it is enough.

    Well you gained some'n Hongereni.
     
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