Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election

TEKNOLOJIA · Apr 1, 2015

Independent-Mind said:
Kutokana na maelezo yako nimeshapata jibu wewe ni Pro-Chadema,kwani ni kawaida yenu kukimbilia udini,ukabila etc No wonder ndio mana watu wanahusisha Chadema na ukristo kwa sababu ya watu kama nyinyi.Zitto na kura za waislam?? kweli?? is this the best you can come up with??

Tatizo mnajiingiza ktk mijadala kuhusu masuala msiyokuwa na uelewa nayo vyakutosha na matokeo ndio haya ya kukimbia hoja kwa kuleta wrong conclusions zako kuhusu mimi binafsi.

Mlileta hoja ya kumlinganisha Zitto na Ruto eti ni kingmakers, nikawapinga kwamba siasa za Kenya zipo tofauti kabisa kabisa na za Tanzania. Nikaongeza kwamba labda Zitto atumie turufu ya kura za Waislamu,Mbona Rais mpya wa Nigeria amebebwa na kura za Waislamu wa Kaskazini?Sasa hapo udini wangu uko wapi?Mbona wachambuzi wa Kimarekani walikuwa wanaeleza dhahiri kwamba Wamarekani weusi ni wapiga kura tegemeo wa Rais Barack Obama kama ambavyo wanawazungumzia wapiga kura wanawake kwa upande wa Hillary Clinton? Kwa mantiki hiyo nao ni wabaguzi.It didn't cross my mind that you could have such a poor reasoning man!

KALINZI NYUMBANI · Apr 1, 2015

Independent-Mind said:
Kutokana na maelezo yako nimeshapata jibu wewe ni Pro-Chadema,kwani ni kawaida yenu kukimbilia udini,ukabila etc No wonder ndio mana watu wanahusisha Chadema na ukristo kwa sababu ya watu kama nyinyi.Zitto na kura za waislam?? kweli?? is this the best you can come up with??

Uchaguzi wa mwaka huu kura yeyote ile ni muhimu sana hata kama ni moja.Hata kama ACT itapata kura laki tatu kura hizo ni muhimu sana kwa ukawa.Siasa za mkoa wa kigoma kwa kiasi kikubwa kwa mbunge yeyote aliepita hasa wa NCCR Mageuzi kwa namna moja au nyingine alisaaidiwa na Zitto.Na hasa wabunge wa NCCR wanawakati mgumu sana kama watagombea kupiria UKAWA.Wakae wakijua watakumbana na nguvu ya ACT kupitia zitto pia nguvu ya ccm.Jambo la msingi kwa Ukawa nikuangalia hatima ya wagombea wake wa ubunge kutoka mkoa wa kigoma kabla ya suala la uraisi.Mimi naamini kabisa Wagombea ubunge wa NCCR Wa mkoa wa Kigoma ndio wanawakati mgumu sana kuliko hata 2010.

Bigirita · Apr 2, 2015

Simple said:
acha ulevi; hakuna sheria duniani inayoweza kumkataza mtu kifikiri na kuandika mitazamo(hesabu zake); ninapatikana muda wowote ule kusimamia nilichoandika

Wewe ndio mbulula kweli wewe, hujui hata kinachoendelea kwenye nchi yako. Umelishwa kasa na Kiongozi wa Chama.
Endelea kupigia debe kenge wenzako.

Sophist · Apr 2, 2015

Simple said:
Vyama vya upinzania vimeshawahi kuungana before in Tanzania,,nothing is new there: Walivunjika sababu ya tamaa za viongozi wa vyama vya upinzani:
UKAWA was formed in order to oppose the new proposed katiba,,and not kwa ajili ya uchaguzi mkuu: They have to sit down and draw new strategy: Jinsi ya kuchagua mgombea uraisi; Wabunge: rasilimali za kampeni: It will be tough:

ZZK ana uwezo wa kujieleza na kueleweka na mwananchi wa kawaida: Now Chadema has to fight both, CCM and Zitto.

Yes I said, Chadema is Mbowe and Mbowe is Chadema..same kama ACT is Zitto and Zitto is ACT. bythe way,,Zitto only learnt this from his tutor(Mbowe).

Itseems you are not updated about UKAWA undercurrents;neither are you a political analyst but a sort of political fanatic to eitherCCM or ACT if not an agent provoctua executing specific assignment of UWT.

Sophist · Apr 2, 2015

KALINZI NYUMBANI said:
Uchaguzi wa mwaka huu kura yeyote ile ni muhimu sana hata kama ni moja.Hata kama ACT itapata kura laki tatu kura hizo ni muhimu sana kwa ukawa.Siasa za mkoa wa kigoma kwa kiasi kikubwa kwa mbunge yeyote aliepita hasa wa NCCR Mageuzi kwa namna moja au nyingine alisaaidiwa na Zitto.Na hasa wabunge wa NCCR wanawakati mgumu sana kama watagombea kupiria UKAWA.Wakae wakijua watakumbana na nguvu ya ACT kupitia zitto pia nguvu ya ccm.Jambo la msingi kwa Ukawa nikuangalia hatima ya wagombea wake wa ubunge kutoka mkoa wa kigoma kabla ya suala la uraisi.Mimi naamini kabisa Wagombea ubunge wa NCCR Wa mkoa wa Kigoma ndio wanawakati mgumu sana kuliko hata 2010.

The political anthropology of Waha ethnic is clearly known; it has nothing to do with Zitto neither CCM. NCCR MPs may lose elections because of regular changing dynamics of Waha ethnic political anthropology. Waha will always trust nobody and are never trustable. Please consider this factor in your analysis.

Mtimbo · Apr 2, 2015

Chidudule said:
2010,kura za Slaa hazikutokana na Zitto kuwepo Kigoma au umaarufu wake. Dr Slaa alikuwa na umaarufu kuliko Zitto,na kura za Kigoma hazikutoka jimbo la Zitto pekee ila hata majimbo mengine. Dr Slaa alikuwa maarufu kuliko Zitto na ndiyo maana watu walipata hamasa kuongeza wabunge ni kwasababu ya Slaa. Ni mwaka ambao jeshi kwa mara ya kwanza lilitoa tamko kuhusu uchaguzi Mnadhimu akiwa Lt Jenerali Shimbo. Hii yote ni kwa ajili ya Slaa. Watu wa Kigoma walimpa Slaa kura kwa mapenzi yao kwa Slaa na Zitto. Huyo Zitto mwenyewe kama ccm wangempigia mgombea wao kampeni asingepita kwani ukiangalia kura zake hakushinda kwa kishindo ingawa ccm walimwachia. Ndiyo baada ya matokeo alikiri kuwa udini ulipunguza kura zake na ndiyo maana anakimbia jimbo mapema aende mjini kwenye waislamu wengi. Kama ni maarufu mshauri agombee tena Kigoma kaskazini uonr atakachoambulia.

Kama sikosei Dr slaa alianza kuingia bungeni mwaka 1995 hakua wa moto hadi kwenye bunge la 9, 2005-2010 alipo ungana na zzk so huwezi kuignore mchngo wa zitto kwenye umaarufu wa Dr slaa wala chadema yenyewe.

salimkabora · Apr 2, 2015

Simple said:
I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

Gemu ya Rutto na Uhuru ni gemu ya makabila;hapa kwetu hayo hayapo hapa ni shoo kati ya walionacho na wasionacho(hasa vijana- chungulia chaguzi za seriakali za mitaa) na sana sana uchaguzi unaweza ukachukua sura ya kidini na hapo zzk atakuwa garasa tupu. Huyo zzk ndio anaishia hivyo zama zake ni zingine kabisa ingefaa aingie gizani kwa muda aje aibuke kivingine akiwa amejirekebisha na kuacha kuendekeza njaa. Ni mwanasiasa bora sana ila njaa itamuuwa

Mtimbo · Apr 2, 2015

salimkabora said:
Gemu ya Rutto na Uhuru ni gemu ya makabila;hapa kwetu hayo hayapo hapa ni shoo kati ya walionacho na wasionacho(hasa vijana- chungulia chaguzi za seriakali za mitaa) na sana sana uchaguzi unaweza ukachukua sura ya kidini na hapo zzk atakuwa garasa tupu. Huyo zzk ndio anaishia hivyo zama zake ni zingine kabisa ingefaa aingie gizani kwa muda aje aibuke kivingine akiwa amejirekebisha na kuacha kuendekeza njaa. Ni mwanasiasa bora sana ila njaa itamuuwa

Pole! naona ushasnza kuandika tanzia za kisiasa. Ushauri wangu wa bure weka akiba ya maneno ni swala la mda tu.

salimkabora · Apr 2, 2015

Mtimbo said:
Pole! naona ushasnza kuandika tanzia za kisiasa. Ushauri wangu wa bure weka akiba ya maneno ni swala la mda tu.

Mark my words; time will tell......

Ngoromiko · Oct 29, 2015

Am back in this just to see what they predicted some times back.

MWANDENDEULE · Oct 29, 2015

Simple said:
I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

Are you unable to differentiate LOOSE from LOSE?

Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election

TEKNOLOJIA

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KALINZI NYUMBANI

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Bigirita

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Sophist

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Sophist

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Mtimbo

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salimkabora

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Mtimbo

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salimkabora

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Ngoromiko

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MWANDENDEULE

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