Uhuru Kenyatta Faces Obama With Tough Choices

[SHERRIF ARPAIO]

NAIROBI, Kenya - He has been charged with heinous crimes, accused of using a vast fortune to bankroll death squads that slaughtered women and children. His running mate also faces charges of crimes against humanity, and as Kenya's election drew closer, the Obama administration's top official for Africa issued a thinly veiled warning during a conference call about the vote, saying that Kenyans are, of course, free to pick their own leaders but that "choices have consequences."

Soon, the Obama administration and its allies could face a tough choice, made even more complicated by the appearance of taking sides against a candidate who may very well win. Does the United States put a premium on its commitment to justice and ending impunity - as it has emphasized across the continent - and distance itself from Mr. Kenyatta should he clinch this election?
Or would that put at risk all the other strategic American interests vested in Kenya, a vital ally in a volatile region and a crucial hub for everything from billion-dollar health programs and American corporations to spying on agents of Al Qaeda?

Even the little things could be tricky. Are the American diplomats who interact with the Kenyan government on a daily basis not supposed to shake Mr. Kenyatta's hand? The British have already publicly stated that they will avoid any contact unless it is essential. But Johnnie Carson, the top administration official for Africa, was not quite so diplomatic when he repeatedly warned soon after that "choices have consequences,"

If Mr. Kenyatta wins the presidency, he would become the second African head of state after Sudan's Omar Hassan al-Bashir to face grave charges at the International Criminal Court at The Hague.

By contrast, the American-Kenyan partnership has been a particularly symbiotic one, especially recently. American intelligence agents work closely with their Kenyan counterparts, hunting down Qaeda cells in Kenya and Somalia. Kenya receives nearly $1 billion in American aid each year and has agreed to accept captured Somali pirates and hundreds of thousands of refugees, at the request of donors like the United States.
Nairobi, Kenya's capital, is home to the largest American Embassy in sub-Saharan Africa and a sprawling United Nations campus that runs programs across the world, making it especially difficult for the United States to take its resources somewhere else.

The United States has to be careful how it handles the Kenyatta issue, analysts say, because Mr. Kenyatta could easily turn to China, which has made important inroads here, building highways and even covertly financing some Kenyan military operations.
Some diplomats have also spoken of what they call a "Mugabe factor," warning that Kenya's leaders, if put under too much pressure, could become isolated and testy like President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe.

Mr. Kenyatta, the documents say, "contributed money towards the retaliatory attack" and was "aware of the widespread and systematic nature of the attack." The outlawed gang, the Mungiki, killed scores of people, including small children burned to death while huddling in their homes.

But among many Kikuyus, Mr. Kenyatta is seen as a savior. He is a confident speaker, educated at Amherst College and respected in Nairobi's business circles. During the last election crisis, several supporters said, he paid for buses to ferry Kikuyus out of danger zones and bought sacks of food for families who had been burned out of their homes.
"When we needed it, Uhuru was there," said David Wanjohi Chege, a trader.
Many Western governments would clearly prefer the second-place candidate, Mr. Odinga.