Tathmin ya uchaguzi UZINI - Mathematical calculation

[TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"] [TABLE="class: outer_border, width: 500, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]YEAR
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 2010
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]% drop
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CCM
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6651
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: center"]5377
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-23.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAHADEMA
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]617
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: center"]281
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, align: center"]-119.6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CUF
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]524
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]223
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, align: center"]-135.0
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Nwaomba mnisamehe sana wana JF najua hesabati ni janga la kitaifa lakini nimejitahidi kurahisisha, Kwa matokeo haya inaonyesha kati ya CUF na CDM kuna higher percentage drop ya support ya wapiga kura CUF kuliko CDM.
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

aha uko sawa nilikuwa na-prove kidogo................ni kweli kuna higher drop CUF kuliko CHADEMA

kakakuona40 said:

[TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][TABLE="class: outer_border, width: 500, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]YEAR
[/TD]
[TD]2010
[/TD]
[TD]2012
[/TD]
[TD]% drop
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CCM
[/TD]
[TD]6651
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]5377
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD]-23.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAHADEMA
[/TD]
[TD]617
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]281
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]-119.6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CUF
[/TD]
[TD]524
[/TD]
[TD]223
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]-135.0
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Nwaomba mnisamehe sana wana JF najua hesabati ni janga la kitaifa lakini nimejitahidi kurahisisha, Kwa matokeo haya inaonyesha kati ya CUF na CDM kuna higher percentage drop ya support ya wapiga kura CUF kuliko CDM. [/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Click to expand...

Masahihisho madogo: Hayo matokeo yamechanyika kwa maana ya UWAKILISHI NA UBUNGE. Kumbuka kwa Zanzibar kila jimbo linakuwa na mwakilishi kwa ajili ya Baraza la Uwakishi Zanzibar na Mbunge ambaye anakuja bungeni Dodoma. Mwaka 2010 CHADEMA hawakusimamisha mwakilishi jimbo la Uzini hivyo unaweza kuweka 0. Hii ni mara ya kwanza kwa CHADEMA kusimamisha mgombea wa nafasi ya Uwakilishi (sio ubunge) kwenye jimbo la Uzini.

fjm said:

masahihisho madogo: Hayo matokeo yamechanyika kwa maana ya uwakilishi na ubunge. Kumbuka kwa zanzibar kila jimbo linakuwa na mwakilishi kwa ajili ya baraza la uwakishi zanzibar na mbunge ambaye anakuja bungeni dodoma. Mwaka 2010 chadema hawakusimamisha mwakilishi jimbo la uzini hivyo unaweza kuweka 0. Hii ni mara ya kwanza kwa chadema kusimamisha mgombea wa nafasi ya uwakilishi (sio ubunge) kwenye jimbo la uzini.

Click to expand...

naomba ufafanuzi kidogo hapo kaka, cdm 2010 ilisimamisha mbunge na sasa mwakilishi ? Inamaana hawa wanapigiwa kura tofauti au?

Msibadili mambo si kila jimbo la uakilishi lina ubunge.uzin ni uwakilishi tu

thinka said:

Msibadili mambo si kila jimbo la uakilishi lina ubunge.uzin ni uwakilishi tu

Click to expand...

lakini siku ya kupiga kura ilikuwa ni moja. Mpiga kura alikuwa anapiga kura ya uwakilishi, ubunge, Rais znz na Rais Muungano. kama vile huko bara mnavyopiga za Diwani, Mbunge na Rais kwa wakati mmoja.

Nilivyomuelewa mlalamikaji kwenye post #3 ni kuwa uchaguzi wa 2010 CDM haikusimamisha mgombe uwakilishi eneo la uzini lakini ilisimamisha mgombea ubunge wa jimbo ambalo uzini ni sehemu yake. swali je namba alizotumia mtoa uchambuzi ni za kura alizopata mgombea ubunge jimbo hilo ambalo uzini is part of. au ni kura alizopata mgombea ubunge huyo katika eneo la uzini pekee?

Kumbuka huwezi kutumia kuza alizopata mbunge kama kilelezo cha takwimu kwa uwakilishi, maana yaewezana sana kuwa Mbunge alikuwa hakubaliki lakini mgombea uwakilishi akawa anakubalika.

Ukweli unabaki kuwa hilo eneo CCM bado iko juu.

chadema wametumia milioni 60
CUF wametumia milioni 7
kwa mwenye akili anaweza elewa namaanisha nini katika suala zima la investiment.

cuf kusema ukweli wanadrop lakini wenyewe wanajifanya eti hawadrop, nafikiri sio mbaya sana kwa chadema.

kakakuona40 said:

[TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][TABLE="class: outer_border, width: 500, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]YEAR
[/TD]
[TD]2010
[/TD]
[TD]2012
[/TD]
[TD]% drop
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CCM
[/TD]
[TD]6651
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]5377
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD]-23.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAHADEMA
[/TD]
[TD]617
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]281
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]-119.6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CUF
[/TD]
[TD]524
[/TD]
[TD]223
[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]-135.0
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Nwaomba mnisamehe sana wana JF najua hesabati ni janga la kitaifa lakini nimejitahidi kurahisisha, Kwa matokeo haya inaonyesha kati ya CUF na CDM kuna higher percentage drop ya support ya wapiga kura CUF kuliko CDM.[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Click to expand...

Hizi ni hesabu za kiburicheka.. Huwezi kuweka asilimia ya mwaka 2010 ukalinganisha na ya mwaka 2012 waklati idai ya wapiga kura ni tofauti baina ya miaka. Kumbuka tu kwamba 1/3 ya wapiga kura hawakupiga kura mwaka huu.. Sasa hizo hesabu zake mbona umezitupa nje wakati ndio sababu kubwa.
Hata chukua 6651+617+524=7792 Halafu ukachukua 6651 ya CCM kupata asilimia ya ushindi itakuwa 85.4 bila kuchukua idadi ya vyama vinginevyo ama zilizoharibika..halafu ukija mwaka 2012, chukua 5377+281+223=5881, halafu chukua 5377 kupata asilimia itaonekana kubwa kwa sababu kuna tofauti kubwa baina ya idai ya 7792 ukilinganisha na 6651..Hii ndio tofauti iliyokula kwa Chadema na CUF, hivyo la kujiuliza imekuwaje 1/3 hawakupiga kura. Kuna mahesabu wataalam husema kuna uwezekano mkubwa kwa chama kufanya vizuri ukiweka wapiga kura 100 kuliko ukiweka 10..Hii ikiwa na maana ktk 10 unaweza kutopata hata kura moja lakini ukiweka 100 unaweza kupata tisa - Probability

Mi kwenye calculation sipo, nimezoea calculus (sio calculation)zenye integration na dy/dx, sio hizo hesabu simple namna hiyo.
Concern yangu ni hilo jina la hilo Jimbo, hawakuona jina lingine la kuwaita instead?
Maana naona hata maamuzi waliyoyachukua hao wana-jimbo yana-reflect hilo jina.

kwa matokeo hayo, ninawapa hongera chadema! Zanzibar siku nyingi imekuwa ya ccm na cuf kwa hivyo kwa chadema kuchukua nafasi ya pili inaonesha wanazidi kukubalika siku hadi siku.
Hata hivyo zanzibar ni sehemu ndogo sana ya eneo la Tanzania. Maeneo mengine ya tanzania yaliyo baki chadema wanaushindani mkubwa.

Mkandara said:

Hizi ni hesabu za kiburicheka.. Huwezi kuweka asilimia ya mwaka 2010 ukalinganisha na ya mwaka 2012 waklati idai ya wapiga kura ni tofauti baina ya miaka. Kumbuka tu kwamba 1/3 ya wapiga kura hawakupiga kura mwaka huu.. Sasa hizo hesabu zake mbona umezitupa nje wakati ndio sababu kubwa.
Hata chukua 6651+617+524=7792 Halafu ukachukua 6651 ya CCM kupata asilimia ya ushindi itakuwa 85.4 bila kuchukua idadi ya vyama vinginevyo ama zilizoharibika..halafu ukija mwaka 2012, chukua 5377+281+223=5881, halafu chukua 5377 kupata asilimia itaonekana kubwa kwa sababu kuna tofauti kubwa baina ya idai ya 7792 ukilinganisha na 6651..Hii ndio tofauti iliyokula kwa Chadema na CUF, hivyo la kujiuliza imekuwaje 1/3 hawakupiga kura. Kuna mahesabu wataalam husema kuna uwezekano mkubwa kwa chama kufanya vizuri ukiweka wapiga kura 100 kuliko ukiweka 10..Hii ikiwa na maana ktk 10 unaweza kutopata hata kura moja lakini ukiweka 100 unaweza kupata tisa - Probability

Click to expand...

Wameanza kuingiza siasa hadi kwenye kanuni za hisabati!!!!! Oooh!!!!!