Arusha Times
This first week of February, may see average prices of maize shooting up to Tsh. 60,000 per bag or more. This will be the highest grain price in decades.
Farmers in grain producing areas of Manyara, where most maize come from sell a bag of 100 kilograms at Tsh. 35,000 which used to be the value of such maize bag in Arusha town. The 35,000 shilings per bag is now cited as on-farm price instead of market price.
The market prices on the other hand are ticking towards Tsh. 60,000 and that, as far as observers here are concerned, should be the good news part of the story to producers.
The bad news is that, maize is scarce at the moment and could totally disappear before mid-February in case it doesnt rain enough to wet the land.
If rains dont fall within the first two weeks of February then it will be a bad story to the whole region if not the entire country, warns a farmer here.
Drought is hitting the northern zone harder than before, a few drizzles experienced last week according to local peasants, only helped to cool down the temperatures but were no good as far as crop production is concerned.
Up to December last year prices of maize in Arusha were between Tsh. 20,000 and Tsh. 23,000 per bag of 100 kilograms. The price has doubled with increased demand but badly supplemented with diminishing grain reserves.
Yusuf Ismail a local trader in Arusha said only a few bags of maize are delivered in Arusha and the amount of available grain lessen with each passing day. We have come to learn that if there is one thing that farmers fear more is hunger, most are refusing to sell what they have in store until they are assured of future harvest, he explained.
Michael Delay, a farmer from Galapo Babati, said most farmers rushed to sell their grains in December to raise money for their childrens school fees as well as for the preparation of their land for new cultivation, by mid-January most had drained their reserves away, Delay maintained.
Maize is what makes the meal on local dining tables here, being a major component of the local staple dishes of Ugali (flour based maize meal) Uji (porridge) Makande or Githeri (maize mixed with beans). Now the grain may soon become rare and as expensive as a gem with their prices taking on to new heights.
A visit to local outlets indicates that a bag of maize in Arusha now retails at between Tsh. 42,000 and Tsh. 45,000 and counting. Traders are accusing farmers refusal to sell produce but farmers on the other hand, are lamenting drought.
Other sources suspect that the little maize grain reserves could also be vacuuming to Southern Sudan via Kenya, where a bag of maize retails at Kenyan shillings 7000 which is more than Tsh. 120,000 an amount which no farmer can refuse despite looming famine.
Kenyan and Tanzanian traders were recently reported to be buying large consignments of maize from the farmers, taking the consignment via Panya-routes to Kenya where they get transported to Sudan where maize is the new gold.
Weather reports indicate that cooler ocean temperatures over the Indian Ocean may lead to prolonged dry spells in most parts of the East Africa.
Meanwhile, The Citizen reports that Tanzania has 121,769 tonnes of a grain stock which are projected to last for six months when the next harvest season starts. The Government is required to have a stock of 150,000 tonne of cereals annually.
This is causing concerns taking into consideration reports of food shortages in various parts of the country.
The minister for State in the Prime Minister's Office (Policy, Coordination and Parliamentary Affairs), Mr Philip Marmo, told journalists recently that 20 districts in Dodoma, Shinyanga, Kilimanjaro, Coast, Morogoro, Arusha, Mwanza, Singida, Mara, Tabora, Lindi, Mtwara and Manyara regions needed 7,782 tonnes of food relief.
Tanzania has banned cereals exports amid fears of a food shortage.
The Eastern Africa Grain Council has reported that Zambia, Malawi and Kenya are short of food. They expect food supplies from Tanzania to cushion the deficit while Sudan, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya will rely on Uganda.
Kenya's food production fell last year following post-election violence. Farmers fled during the crisis. Together with an unavailability of inputs, crop output fell significantly.
The country produced about 2.43 million tonnes against the national consumption of 3.15 million tonnes last production season. Normally, Kenya imports 250,000 tonnes (2.7 million 90-kilo bags) from Uganda and Tanzania during one production year, but the figure is projected to be lower this year due to the demand for maize in Eastern, Central and Southern Africa is high.
The Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network reported that Kenya had imported 110,000 tonnes of maize (1.2 million 90-kilo bags) from Uganda and Tanzania since July 2008. Last year, it imported 81,730 tonnes of maize, 4,045 of beans and 12,073 tonnes of rice compared with 121,153 tonnes of maize, 8,401 tonnes of beans and 14,110 tonnes of rice in 2007. It imported 60,430 tonnes of maize, 122,152 tonnes of beans from Uganda, last year.
It imported 98,029 tonnes of maize and 65,134 tonnes of beans the previous year. It is projected that not more than 50,000 tonnes of maize will be imported between January and June 2009.
As a short-term measure, the Government has approved the importation of 900,000 tonnes (10 million 90-kilo bags) of grain duty free. Both the Government and the private sector would do this. It will import seven million bags for its strategic grain reserves while millers and traders will import three million bags.
The country has banned grain and flour exports. Two months ago, due to the rising price of maize flour, the Government announced that it would make maize flour available at a subsidised price.
Meanwhile, a tonne of maize was sold for $311 last Friday in Dar es Salaam. Average prices were $307 in Dar es Salaam, $309 in Nairobi, $368 in Kigali, $245 in Kampala and $490 in Lilongwe last week.