MadameX
JF-Expert Member
- Dec 27, 2009
- 7,792
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The Arab League has offered President Bashar as-Assad of Syria an exit strategy. He and his family will be given safe haven in a friendly country if he agrees to peacefully step down. That wouldnt solve much: The rebellion consuming Syria isnt about how much people dislike Assad personally, but about being fed up of being ruled by the broader regime. Assad is an Alawite, a sect that makes up a small percentage of Syrias total population, but wields a huge amount of power in the government and military officer corps. It is doubtful that anything less than full-on regime change will truly bring an end to the fighting in Syria, nor is this the first offer of asylum Assad has received.
Still, it was worth a shot. After a bomber killed four senior members of his government last week, it would have been understandable if Assad had perhaps decided it was time to start packing.
No such luck. Instead of agreeing to step down, Assad instead had one of his officials go out and boast that Syria has weapons of mass destruction, and are ready to use them.
Syria has long been a suspected chemical weapons state. The U.S. and Israel have even been reported to be closely monitoring the location of Syrias stockpile of chemical weapons, and the ballistic missiles that could carry them, in case Syria suddenly collapses. In that scenario, rather than risk these weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups such as Iran-proxy Hezbollah or end up on the black market, it might be necessary to go in and take them out.
But Syria itself had never acknowledged possessing the weapons, a policy that mirrors Israels deliberately ambiguous stance on its own all-but-established possession of a nuclear strike force. That is no longer the case.
On Monday, a spokesman for the Syrian foreign ministry confirmed that Syria is not only a chemical weapons state, but claimed that it also possesses biological weapons of an unknown nature. All of these types of weapons are in storage and under security and the direct supervision of the Syrian armed forces and will never be used unless Syria is exposed to external aggression, he said, stressing, repeatedly, that they will not be used against the rebels, but could be used if Syria is attacked by foreign forces.
Such a statement can be interpreted two ways. It would not be surprising, in the hypothetical (and unlikely) circumstance of NATO mounting a ground invasion of Syria, for the Syrian military to hit the invading troops with chemical weapons. Given that such an invasion would be backed by the full might of the Wests air power, it would only be by using unconventional tactics and weapons that Syria could hope to hold off the attack. In a conventional war, a Western armoured brigade goes wherever the hell it wants to. Syria would have to go unconventional to win.
But there is a far more realistic scenario in which Syria could potentially use its weapons of mass destruction. The foreign ministry official did not say that Syria would fire off its gases and its germs if it was invaded, only if it faced aggression. Aggression could mean many things, including the kind of limited air campaign that NATO successfully waged over Libya last year. In that conflict, NATO gave an existing rebellion air cover, smashing Col. Muammar Gaddafis conventional military forces so thoroughly that rag-tag rebels could capture the country. Syria would be a more formidable opponent than Libya, but is certainly vulnerable to the same sort of concentrated air campaign.
And it has now put the world on notice NATO and Israel, specifically that it has weapons of mass destruction, and is willing to use them if provoked. It has done so knowing that both the U.S. and Israel possess nuclear weapons. Its a huge risk, but it sends a strong message to the West: Stay out. Any country that tangles with Syria risks having a ballistic missile loaded with nerve gas lobbed at their cities.
Assads military seems to be rolling back the rebels, especially in the capital of Damascus. The rebels may have overextended themselves. The noose around Assads neck might feel a bit looser than it did last week. But hes still staked out his last line. Hell fight the rebels the old fashioned way, and he doesnt care how many of his own people die in the process. But if anyone else gets involved, watch out. Hes just very publicly declared his willingness to go all the way.
For more Syria: Assad, offered chance to flee, instead threatens to use chemical weapons | Full Comment | National Post
Reading from above, I just feel this came too late. He doens't deserve it now, this only applies to avoid more deaths, his days are now counting down finally he will have to surrender as already lost control of major cities in Syria.
Offering him refuge won't do a justice to Syrian people. I just say let him face consequences!
Still, it was worth a shot. After a bomber killed four senior members of his government last week, it would have been understandable if Assad had perhaps decided it was time to start packing.
No such luck. Instead of agreeing to step down, Assad instead had one of his officials go out and boast that Syria has weapons of mass destruction, and are ready to use them.
Syria has long been a suspected chemical weapons state. The U.S. and Israel have even been reported to be closely monitoring the location of Syrias stockpile of chemical weapons, and the ballistic missiles that could carry them, in case Syria suddenly collapses. In that scenario, rather than risk these weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups such as Iran-proxy Hezbollah or end up on the black market, it might be necessary to go in and take them out.
But Syria itself had never acknowledged possessing the weapons, a policy that mirrors Israels deliberately ambiguous stance on its own all-but-established possession of a nuclear strike force. That is no longer the case.
On Monday, a spokesman for the Syrian foreign ministry confirmed that Syria is not only a chemical weapons state, but claimed that it also possesses biological weapons of an unknown nature. All of these types of weapons are in storage and under security and the direct supervision of the Syrian armed forces and will never be used unless Syria is exposed to external aggression, he said, stressing, repeatedly, that they will not be used against the rebels, but could be used if Syria is attacked by foreign forces.
Such a statement can be interpreted two ways. It would not be surprising, in the hypothetical (and unlikely) circumstance of NATO mounting a ground invasion of Syria, for the Syrian military to hit the invading troops with chemical weapons. Given that such an invasion would be backed by the full might of the Wests air power, it would only be by using unconventional tactics and weapons that Syria could hope to hold off the attack. In a conventional war, a Western armoured brigade goes wherever the hell it wants to. Syria would have to go unconventional to win.
But there is a far more realistic scenario in which Syria could potentially use its weapons of mass destruction. The foreign ministry official did not say that Syria would fire off its gases and its germs if it was invaded, only if it faced aggression. Aggression could mean many things, including the kind of limited air campaign that NATO successfully waged over Libya last year. In that conflict, NATO gave an existing rebellion air cover, smashing Col. Muammar Gaddafis conventional military forces so thoroughly that rag-tag rebels could capture the country. Syria would be a more formidable opponent than Libya, but is certainly vulnerable to the same sort of concentrated air campaign.
And it has now put the world on notice NATO and Israel, specifically that it has weapons of mass destruction, and is willing to use them if provoked. It has done so knowing that both the U.S. and Israel possess nuclear weapons. Its a huge risk, but it sends a strong message to the West: Stay out. Any country that tangles with Syria risks having a ballistic missile loaded with nerve gas lobbed at their cities.
Assads military seems to be rolling back the rebels, especially in the capital of Damascus. The rebels may have overextended themselves. The noose around Assads neck might feel a bit looser than it did last week. But hes still staked out his last line. Hell fight the rebels the old fashioned way, and he doesnt care how many of his own people die in the process. But if anyone else gets involved, watch out. Hes just very publicly declared his willingness to go all the way.
For more Syria: Assad, offered chance to flee, instead threatens to use chemical weapons | Full Comment | National Post
Reading from above, I just feel this came too late. He doens't deserve it now, this only applies to avoid more deaths, his days are now counting down finally he will have to surrender as already lost control of major cities in Syria.
Offering him refuge won't do a justice to Syrian people. I just say let him face consequences!
