Shilling value down 43pc, says bureau

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Shilling value down 43pc, says bureau Monday, 02 August 2010 23:34
By The Citizen Reporter

The value of Sh100 declined to Sh57.31 in June 2010 from June 2002, the National Bureau of Statistics has reported.

That meant consumers were forced to dig deeper into their pockets.

But the situation does not seem to improve as the shilling is continuing to depreciate against currencies of Tanzania’s major trading partners, making imports increasingly expensive.

At bureaux de change, Sh1,514.66 was exchanged for a dollar last week, down from Sh1,502.81 the preceding week at bureaux de change.
An average of Sh2,318.12 was exchanged for a pound last week compared with Sh2,263.2 the previous week. An average of Sh1,926.35 was exchange for a euro last week versus Sh1,911.49 a week before.

It lost ground against the rand, exchanging at an average of Sh186.89 a rand from Sh184.55.

However, it strengthened against the Kenya shilling, exchanging at an average of Sh18.24 a Ksh last week, slightly higher than Sh18.26 the previous week.

At commercial banks, an average of Sh1,499.57 was exchanged for a dollar last week, from with Sh1,487.72 a week earlier.

An average of Sh2,340.37 was exchanged for a pound last week from Sh2,293.27 a week earlier. It also lost versus the euro, exchanging at an average of Sh1,949.03 a euro last week down compared with Sh1,919.07 the preceding week.

An average of Sh197.83 was exchanged for a rand slightly down from Sh195.08 over the period. But it strengthened against the Kenyan currency, exchanging at an average of Sh18.02 a Ksh last week similar to a week earlier in commercial banks, the review shows.

Economists say low foreign exchange earnings from mainly agricultural exports, donor support and tourism receipts are exerting enormous pressures on the shilling.
Since imports are expensive, prices of domestic industrial products are rising.

The shilling has been depreciating for monthly and the Bank of Tanzania intervention only temporarily halted.

Trading $3 million in the Inter-bank Foreign Exchange Market was $3 million last week compared with $6 million the previous week.
 
Mkuu habari kama hizi inafaa ziwafikie watanzania wengi. Kama uchumi unaporomoka kila kukicha watu wanwaweza kujua waht kind of administration team we have.

Najua kuna watu wanasema thamani ya shilingi si kigezo pekee cha kuonesha hali ya uchumi, lakini ni lazima tutambue pia kuwa ni kigezo muhimu. we are ruining our country, this has to stop. A shiling must appreciate and eventually become stable.
 

..acha hizo wewe kama huelewi kaa kimya, kushuka kwa thamani ya shillings sio kushuka kwa uchumi, hope iendelee kuporomoka ili uchumi wetu uendelee kuwa imara.
 
Koba said:
..acha zako wewe kama huelewi kaa kimya, kushuka kwa thamani ya shillings sio kushuka kwa uchumi, hope iendelee kuporomoka ili uchumi wetu uendelee kuwa imara.
Click to expand...

Mkuu, with all due respect, if you have read my post well you would have understood me much better than that. I know that devaluation of madafu is not the only indicator that we are doing bad, there are many more factors, so they say and so we see. There has been complaints about dollarization of the economy, am sure those who are smart know where this comes from. Do you believe that uchumi wetu ni imara?

Kama kushusha thamani ya shilingi ingekuwa ni mbinu ya kuinua uchumi, kwa hiyo tungeweza kusema kuanzia june 2002 hadi june 2010 kipindi ambacho thamani ya dafu imeshuka wa asilima 43, uchumi wetu ungekua kwa asilima 43, if it was that cheap every one would have campaigned for devaluation of dafu.

Mugabe was in same line of thinking like yours, he devalued Zim Dollar to the extent that he created milions of poor milionaires, and eventually Zimbabwe opted to use a basket of foreign currencies(Rand, USD and GBP) . So where is upuuzi and who is mpuuzi here, me or Mugabe?
 
Koba said:
..acha zako wewe kama huelewi kaa kimya, kushuka kwa thamani ya shillings sio kushuka kwa uchumi, hope iendelee kuporomoka ili uchumi wetu uendelee kuwa imara.
Click to expand...
Naombeni ofafanuzi angalau kiduchu hapo kwenye red.

Wengine hatukubahatika kusoma Uchumi na darasa letu kwa sasa ndio hili.

Thanks in Advance
 
Koba said:
..acha zako wewe kama huelewi kaa kimya, kushuka kwa thamani ya shillings sio kushuka kwa uchumi, hope iendelee kuporomoka ili uchumi wetu uendelee kuwa imara.
Click to expand...

Unajua haya ndio madhara ya kutumia terminologies kihasara hasara. Labda nikuulize swali ndugu Koba, je wewe unatumia kigezo au kiashiria gani kutambua hali ya uchumi? Pato la taifa? Uzalishaji wa taifa? Mgawanyo wa pato la taifa?

Kwa kuongezea na pengine kuboresha yale ya ndugu Geza Ulole, ni kweli kwamba pato la taifa limekuwa likikuwa mwaka hadi mwaka ila ukuaji wa pato hili ukililinganisha na kasi pevu ya ukuaji wa idadi ya watu na pia mfumuko wa bei, unaonekana si maridhawa kama vile wanasiasa wetu wanavyopenda kuwaambia wananchi na wale wasio na ufahamu mzuri wa misamiati ya Uchumi.

Uporomokaji huu wa nguvu ya manunuzi ya shilingi nimeshauandika hapa jamvini si chini ya mara moja.

Mkubwa Koba kuna kitu kinaitwa "fallacy of composition" na hii ni bora ukaizingatia katika mada hii. Kwa kifupi kudhania ya kwamba kama hali ya mtu mmoja ni nzuri inamaanisha hali za watu wote ni nzuri si sahihi hata kidogo.

Kwa bahati mbaya natambua ya kwamba kuna baadhi ambao kipato chao hakijakuwa vya kutosha ili kuweza kumudu maongezeko ya bei na hivyo kudumisha thamani ya manunuzi ya shilingi wanayoichuma na hawa ndio ambao wana kila haki ya kusema ya kwamba kwao wao mambo si mazuri.
 
Koba said:
..acha zako wewe kama huelewi kaa kimya, kushuka kwa thamani ya shillings sio kushuka kwa uchumi, hope iendelee kuporomoka ili uchumi wetu uendelee kuwa imara.
Click to expand...

hii shiling imeshuka kwa hiyo ni kuporomoka kwa uchumi kama shilingi ingekuwa imeshushwa na BOT kusaidia export then ungesema unavyotaka, by the way TZ ni net importers we are not china or japan ambao wana-export sana

sio kila kushuka kwa sarafu ni kuzuri inategemeana na uchumi wa nchi yako una base na nini......

acha lugha ya matusi kama vitabu vyako viko mbali jaribu hata ku google utapata uelewa zaidi
 

Mkuu nadhani umemaliza kila kitu. Sina la kuongeza
 

Mfano hai Semilong na Bongolander ni US dollar ambayo kwa miaka michache iliyopita tangu Kichaka akiwa madarakani imekuwa ikishuka thamani karibu kila mwaka na hata mwaka huu kutokana na US kuwa na uchumi ulioanguka vibaya sana kuliko katika wakati wowote ule tangu ipate uhuru ukiondoa the big depression.

Hali hii ilisababisha nchi nyingi duniani ikiwemo China kutishia kuacha kuitumia US dollar katika manunuzi na mauzo yao katika soko la dunia.
 

Mkuu toka juhudi za uzazi wa mpango zikwame na kuwekwa kapuni, sasa hivi kuna population explosion na serikali haijali kabisa. Ndio maana tunaona economic growth hai-match uchumi, tragedly hakuna anayejali.

Umeongea point nzuri sana kuhusu role ya mafisadi kwenye kupuuza kuporomoka kwa thamani ya shiling. Tunaoumia ni sisi tusio na pesa nyingi, kwa fisadi nauli ya daladala hata ikpanda mara mbili hapungukiwi kitu. hata bei ya petrol na dizel ikipanda hana neno kwa kuwa ana bilions, ni sisi hohehahe ndio tunahangaika.

Uwezo wa kudhibiti, inflation ni moja kati ya mambo yanayotofautisha serikali ya Ben na JK
 

Mkuu tafadhali tofautisha upunguaji wa kasi ya ukuaji na kuanguka kwa uchumi. Hata katika kipindi cha misukosuko ya mfumo wa fedha na kupanda kwa bei ya mafuta, uchumi wa Marekani ulianguka mwaka 2009 tofauti na ambavyo wengi wamekuwa wakidhani kuhusiana na mzee Bush, pata grafu hiyo hapo chini kwa hisani ya data toka Report for Selected Countries and Subjects.

Kwa uchumi uliokomaa kama wa Marekani zile akaunti za fedha na bidhaa zinazotengeneza salio la malipo ya nchi (Balance of Payments) huwa zinapokezana katika uchangiaji pale mmoja anapopatwa na tatizo.



Na pia mataifa kama China yalikuwa yanatishia nyau tu katika kuacha kutumia dola kama sarafu ya akiba maana kwa taifa linalofanya biashara kubwa na "lililokopesha" Marekani fedha nyingi kama China uamuzi huo ungekula kwao. Hiyo ilikuwa ni mwendelezo mwingine wa vita baridi hasa ukichukulia jinsi gani Marekani wanavyowapa joto wachina kuhusiana na thamani ya Yuan yao. Sababu nyingine ni kwamba kihistoria dola imekuwa ni sarafu dhabiti (stable) sasa kule kuyumbayumba kwa sana kulileta hali ya wasiwasi kidogo


Mkuu kuna sababu nyingi za kuelezea kasi hii kubwa, kuanzia kwenye ukosefu wa ajira, elimu na maboresho ya afya ya uzazi pamoja na huduma zingine za jamii mpaka kwenye ukuwaji na upunguaji wa vipato. Ni jambo la kushangaza kwamba miaka nane baada ya sensa ya watu iliyorekodi watanzania milioni 33/34 leo hii tumefikia milioni 43 kwa makisio na hakuna mtu anayeligusia suala hili.

Kikubwa na kibaya zaidi ni kwamba katika watu hawa milioni 43, zaidi ya nusu ni aidha watoto au si wazalishaji.
 

....2007 under Bush Economy was one of the best na stock index zilikuwa all time high na American dollar was almost all time low,lakini within a yr kutokana na housing bubble Economy iliporomoka na ikawa the worst economy since depression then gold,stock,chinese composite,oil ,housing na takataka zote zikawa almost useless kama unakumbuka oil within months ilianguka from 100$-35$,then cha ajabu hao hao Chinese ,waarabu na dunia nzima with the worst American Economy since 1940s wakaanza scramble ya kununua American dollar and dump everything,hao kina Ahmednajad na Chinese ni politics tuu lakini wanajua better American economy is for their best interest and when America get worse nao ndio kifo chao maana American dollar will dominate na mafuta na toys zao sijui watamuuzia nani?
 

....yaliyotokea kwa Mugabe (Hyperinflation) ni kwa sababu aliwafukuza wale white farmers ambao ndio walikuwa wanajaza treasury yake, na sio kweli Mugabe aliamua to devalue their money to grow the Economy,anyway still sioni sababu ya nchi kama TZ kuwa na strong currency kutokana na hali mbaya ya uchumi,kwa economy yetu we need to export more na weak currency encourage that,Chinese wanagombana kila siku na washington kwa sababu wanaiweka currency yao sooo weak ili wapate advantage in doing business,lakini mambo ya weak/strong currency ni 2 way street kwa hiyo weak/strong is not necessary good or bad
 
Koba kwa kiasi kikubwa yuko sahihi ila ameshindwa kutoa ufafanuzi wa kile alichokisema.

Kuteremka kwa shilingi SIO KIGEZO au KIPIMO cha uchumi. Kadhalika thamani ya ela ya nchi SIO indicator ya uchumi wa nchi. Kukua kwa uchumi (sio maendeleo ya watu) kunapimwa na pato la taifa (gross domestic product: GDP). Kamwe hakupimwi kwa kuangalia thamani ya fedha ya nchi dhidi ya fedha ya nchi husika.

Wakati kipimo cha uchumi (GDP) kwa kiasi kikubwa kinakubalika miongoni mwa wachumi, wachumi hadi sasa wamekuwa wakikuna vichwa vyao juu ya faida na madhara ya kuteremka kwa thamani ya ela katika GDP kwenye nchi masikini. Wachumi wanatueleza kwamba ili uchumi (GDP) ukuwe imports zinatakiwa zipunguzwe, na shilingi yetu inaposhuka thamani (aidha kwa devaluation au depreciation) moja kwa moja inapunguza imports na kwa nadharia ya uchumi hii inachochea kukuwa kwa GDP. Hii ndio point aliyotaka kuieleza Koba.

Baadhi ya wachumi-maendeleo (development economists) wanapinga "Koba theory" wakisema kwamba (i) thamani ya shilingi ikishuka sambamba na exports GDP itapungua (ii) thamani ya shilingi ikishuka kwa muda mrefu na kiasi kikubwa (excessive devaluation) ina sabababisha contractionary effects kwasababu nchi masikini zinategemea imports kwa kiasi kikubwa, kwahiyo imports za bidhaa kama mafuta, zana za kilimo, afya na miundombinu zinapopanda bei kutokana na teremko la thamani ya shilingi zinasimamisha na kudumaza shughuli za uchumi.

Wachumi-maendeleo wanashindwa kujibu maswali kadhaa kisayansi yanayofanya "Koba theory" ikose impizani. Kwanza wanashindwa kuweka kiwango kinachokubalika cha teremko la thamani ya ela ya nchi (i.e. they fail to define excessive devaluation). Pili, wanashindwa kutueleza sababu za kiuchumi juu ya kuwapo kwa nchi masikini zenye uchumi unaokuwa na kuimarika wakati ela ya nchi husika iko chini ya thamani ya US$ au pound ya mwingereza. Tatu, wanashindwa kutueleza namna ambavyo nchi masikini kama Tz inavyoweza kukuza viwanda vyake ambavyo vitaathirika na kupungua kwa bei za imports, na jinsi nchi inavyoweza kukwepa kuwa dump la bidhaa za nje (mfano wachina wanavyotumaliza sasa hivi). Nne, kwa kipindi hiki cha uchumi wa soko huru nchi nyingi hazifanyi devaluation badala yake zinaacha soko huru kurekebisha mwenendo wa ela zao (depreciation), hivyo basi kesi ya excessive devaluation haina mshitakiwa, mshitaki wala hakimu. As such, "Koba theory" prevails.

Hitimisho: kuteremka kwa shilingi yetu sio kipimo cha kukuwa kwa uchumi, wala hakuna wachumi wanaosema hivyo. Vile vile lazima tuwe makini kutofautisha kuteremka kwa shilingi kunakotokana na nguvu ya soko (depreciation) na kuteremshwa kwa shilingi kunakofanywa na serikali(devaluation), mambo haya mawili yana effects tofauti katika uchumi.
 
Uchumi wa Tanzania unapaa according to Mtaalamu wa Political Economy Dr JK na the so called waizli wa fweza
 

sarafu ya Kenya ina nguvu zaidi kuliko sarafu ya Tanzania, lakini Kenya wana export by far kuliko Tanzania, US wana currency yenye nguvu sana kuliko Tanzania wana export by far kuliko sisi. Pointi ni kuwa value ya currency ina mchango kidogo kwenye kuhimiza exports, kwa kuwa mnunuzi atapenda kununua kitu kilichososhwa bei. Lakini kama huna cha kuuza hata ushushe vipi ni matatizo tu. Lakini kushusha value kuna mchango mkubwa kwenye kufanya maisha ya watu yawe magumu, maana kama mkifanya imprts ziwe cheap kwa kushusha thamani ya sarafu autimalically imports zitakuwa expensive hapo ndio hohehahe tunapoumia. Kwa hiyo kushusha thamani ya shilingi ni kufanya maisha ya watu sisi kina yakhe yawe magumu. Ujanja ni kuhimiza exports, let us produce more let us sell more. Serikali inatakiwa iwasaidie wananchi to that end, otherwise ujanja wa kusema tunainua uchumi kwa kupunguza thamani ya dafu tutakuwa tunajidanganya wenyewe.
 
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Heshima mbele mkuu ila naomba nikuweke sawa katika hayo machache niliyoyaweka katika nyeusi. Kwanza sio rahisi hivyo kwamba kwa uchumi kukua ni sharti bidhaa kutoka nje zipungue. Tafadhali rejea nadharia zinazoelezea salio la malipo ya nchi (Balance of Payments) na zile akaunti mbili za malipo, PCA na Capital, na pia kijazio ama kirekebishio cha salio hili, Official Intervention/Balancing Variable. Si kweli kwamba ili uchumi ukue ni sharti uagizaji wa bidhaa kutoka nje upungue. Mifano hai ipo mingi tu kuanzia vinara kama Marekani na Uingereza na mpaka vilaza kama Tanzania na Uganda. Na vile vile pia kama unakumbuka kipindi cha "quantitative easing" kule Japan mwishoni wa miaka ya 90 na mpaka katikati ya miaka la 2000, wao walikuwa wanauza sana nje kushinda wanavyoagiza lakini ukuaji wa pato lao la taifa bado ulikuwa legelege.
Naweza nikatoa somo refu katika hili lakini ushauri wangu ni kwamba rejea tu vitabu vyako vya Uchumi na unaweza ukaanza na kile cha ngazi ya kati cha Ben Bernanke na wenzake cha "Macroeconomics, 6th Ed."


Thamani ya shilingi haina tofauti na bei ya shilingi. Kushuka au kupanda kwake hakuna uhusiano wa moja kwa moja na hali ya uchumi. Kuna viambatanisho vingine ambavyo vinafafanua athari za kushuka au kupanda kwa shilingi. Kuna baadhi ya vitu umeanisha hapo juu vinavyoleta maana lakini ukitoka katika nadharia za vitabuni na ukaingia katika hali halisi vitu hivi si "black and white" kama vile ulivyoainisha. Kuna vitu kama vikwazo vya uwezo (capacity constraints), tija/ufanisi katika uzalishaji (productivity), na uwezo wa uchumi kumeza (absorptive capabilities) vinavyoingia hapo kati na kuleta matokeo ya mwisho uliyoyataja.


Ulichoandika hapo juu si kweli hata kidogo na kama unafikiri hivyo fanya upembuzi uyakinifu katika maandiko mengi ya Uchumi. Unajua tofauti kubwa ya sayansi za jamii kama Uchumi na sayansi kamili au hesabati ni kwamba katika sayansi za jamii hakuna jibu la sahihi la moja kwa moja. Leo hii kwa kutumia taarifa X za kipindi fulani mtu A anaweza kupata jibu B lakini mtu huyu huyu au mwingine kwa kutumia taarifa X za kipindi tofauti za kile cha mwanzo anaweza kupata jibu C.

Koba hajatoa nadharia yoyote ambayo ni ngeni. Na kwa kujibu hoja yako ya kwanza, rejea nilichosema hapo juu na kwa kuongezea ni kwamba hakuna namba au kiasi ambacho ni universal cha kuelezea kushuka kwa thamani ya fedha. Kila nchi ina cha kwake na katika mambo mengi hii pia hutegemea hali halisi ya nchi husika (viwangi vya uwekezaji, uzalishaji, teknolojia, n.k)

Sidhani kama kuna haja ya kujibu hoja yako ya pili wala ya Tatu, nadhani kile kitabu cha Bernake au chochote kile cha Intermediate Macroeconomics kitakusaidia katika hilo na pia kwenye hoja ya Tatu tafadhali rejea terms zinazokubaliwa katika trade rounds mbalimbali kama zile za Uruguay na Doha za WTO na nchi washirika.

Hoja yako ya nne, inagusia exchange rate regimes ambazo kinadharia zipo za aina tatu, free float. partial float/Partial Peg aka Hybrid na Full Peg. Ukiwa katika free float inamaanisha unaliachia soko liamue na zaidi ya kuweka taratibu za jinsi soko litakavyojiendesha, uingiliaji wa wazi (revaluation) unakuwa unakinzana na dhana ya soko huria. Kwenye partially floating regimes mbona nchi bado zinaweza kuingilia kazi ya soko au haujafuatilia migogoro ya Yuan ya China na Marekani?
 

Mkuu, majibu mazuri na inaonyesha una idea na somo la uchumi. Kitu kimoja ambacho nadhani huna idea nacho ni kwamba kila THEORY YA UCHUMI INALINDWA na CETERIS PARIBUS. Ceteris paribus ndio funguo ya theory za uchumi, sasa huwezi kuipinga theory ya uchumi pasipo kwanza kukubali funguo. Kama unakubali Ceteris paribus majibu yako yote uliyoyatoa hayana maana, kwasababu naadharia niliyoiongelea inatokana na kukubalika kwa ceteris paribus.

Of course unaweza kubisha kila theory ya uchumi kwa kuongelea inputs ambazo hazikuwa considered, au zile ambazo zilikuwa held constant, lakini kufanya hivyo nikutoka nje ya mandhari ya theory. Daktari akikuambia meza dawa hii mara baada ya chakula, manake ceteris paribus, dawa hiyo itakuwa effective ikimezwa baada ya mlo. Sasa wewe husiseme kwamba dawa hiyo sio effective ati tu kwasababu usipomeza baada ya mlo haifanyi kazi; ilitengenezwa iwe effective kwa kumezwa baada ya mlo.

Vile vile naona unalazimisha ubishi kwa kulazimisha maneno ambayo sijayasema. Ni wapi nimesema kwamba SHARTI la kukuwa kwa uchumi ni kupunguza imports? Nisingependa niandike kitabu cha introduction to macroeconomics hapa JF chenye chapter kadhaa za inputs za GDP na kuonyesha effects za devaluations etc, na badala yake nimeandika kwa lugha inayoeleweka na mtu wakawaida. To the contrary mwenzetu umeleta lugha za vitabuni ambazo mtu wakawaida atatakiwa aende shule kwanza kabla ya kupata jibu la uhusiano wa kuteremka kwa shilingi na kukua kwa uchumi. Umeongelea balance of payment, ukaongelea terms of trade, ukaongelea aina za exchange regimes, ukaleta mambo ya productivity capacity, investment nk; haya yote ni kwania ya kuwachanganya kisonmi watu wanaotaka kujuwa uhusiano wa kuteremka kwa shilingi na kukua kwa uchumi katika lugha inayofahamika. Hata hivyo basi, hayo yote uliyoyataja hapo juu tayari yameshaingizwa kwenye "Koba theory" kwa kutumia Ceteris paribus; na ndio maana hakukuwa na haja ya kuyaongelea, kwasababu hayaongezi wala kupunguza validity ya Koba theory"

Tatizo la wasomi ni kuongea kisomi ili kuwapumbaza wasiosoma. We need to end this.
 

Mkuu kwanini tusisome wote ili tuweze kuelewa hiyo lugha wote? inabidi tuwafuate huko huko waliko ndio watashindwa kutuongopea.

Mkuu kuna mtu mmoja ametoa excuse ya kijinga sana, anasema kuporomoka kwa uchumi wa Tanzania kunatoka na mtikisiko wa uchumi na fedha, na akasema kama mambo yangekuwa kawaida basi hali ya uchumi wa Mkapa ingeendelea mpaka sasa. Lakini akasahu kuwa Kenya Rwanda na Uganda nazo pia zilielewa kwenye mtumbwi huo huo na uchumi wao hujaporomoka ki vile. Kwa hiyo "ceteris persibus" haikuwepo Tanzania tu ila kwa jirani zetu ilikuwepo.
 
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