A.Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
21. The stance of monetary policy is consistent with the authorities' objective to keep inflation at around 5 percent in the medium term. The authorities indicated that they would aim at entrenching actual and expected inflation at their medium-term objective. To that end, the authorities envisage reserve money growth around that of nominal GDP. This, in turn, is projected to result in a moderate increase in broad money (M3), given the expectation that financial development and inclusion would be mirrored in a gradual reduction in the velocity of M3. At the same time, they saw financial deepening, with greater availability of credit to the private sector, as an important factor to support economic growth (see section C below).
22. The BoT intends to gradually modernize its monetary policy framework. Although the authorities believe that the existing reserve money targeting framework has served the country well, they are contemplating a gradual transition to a more forward-looking monetary policy with more flexible operational targets and greater reliance on interest rates. The authorities consider that an interest rate-based monetary framework may be better aligned with a deeper financial system with greater private sector involvement, and may convey the stance of monetary policy more clearly.
The BoT is reviewing the functioning of key financial markets, including the interbank market, and exploring ways to strengthen the transmission mechanism from policy interest rates to the real economy. Among its initial steps, the BoT is analyzing the existing links between market interest rates and key monetary aggregates.
23. The BoT reiterated its commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime. The authorities pointed to the enhanced flexibility observed over the past year. In view of the large amounts of official aid and capital inflows being channeled through the BoT and the ensuing necessary FX sales to sterilize them, the discussions focused on the relative merits of the existing system, where the BoT announces the price at which it will transact on the existing interbank foreign exchange market (IFEM) platform, and an auction mechanism (if feasible, building on the IFEM infrastructure). There was agreement that interventions should be for liquidity management purposes and to smooth out short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. The authorities also noted that the relative importance of the organized market should not be overestimated, in view of the even larger volume of foreign exchange transactions that occur outside of the market, including sizeable banks' dealings with their customers. The BoT indicated its intention to
gradually increase reserves as a share of imports.
43. The frameworks for monetary policy and financial supervision will need to keep pace with the economy's modernization and its growing international integration.
Initial steps toward a monetary policy framework centered on a greater role for interest rates appropriately include the analysis of the relationship between interest rates and the monetary aggregates, and enhanced focus on developments in interest rates as an indication of the current stance of monetary policy. The authorities are also encouraged to review the functioning of the foreign exchange market and to consider moving to a more modern auction system. In the financial sector, technological innovations and international integration are creating new opportunities for financial deepening and inclusion, but also call for speedy implementation of reforms of the financial supervision framework to reduce or manage any ensuing vulnerabilities. A priority is to ensure effective collaboration among regulators, both domestically and with international counterparts
Source: STAFF REPORT ON THE 2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION, THE THIRD REVIEW UNDER THE STANDBY CREDIT FACILTY ARRANGEMENT, REQUEST FOR A WAIVER FOR NONOBSERVANCE OF A PERFORMANCE CRITERION, AND FINANCING ASSURANCES REVIEW