Geza Ulole
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 31, 2009
- 59,487
- 80,214
Looking at the turn of events; I strongly believe the SGR project in Kenya was executed in a rush and bad faith to just fulfill one's ego and prestige to kickstart the project first no matter what the consequences.
To me no good plans were put in place well ahead as far as having skillfull team at the negotiation table to push for a decent deal i.e. a good loan and a chance to procure a contracor with reasonable charges. Aside that, the inexperienced team failed to woo the neighbors especially Uganda to be onboard from the project's initiation stage as they were not involved.
As a result, the project has ended up being a laughing stock from the mess we are witnessing today. Kenya is suffocating with no room to manoeuvre by conditional loans and binding agreement extended to them being cornered by the Chinese to accept a package with strings attached.
For Uhuru Kenyatta's government, the mission was to build the rail as fast as possible and fulfill his greedy "coalition of the willing" ambitions to isolate Tanzania economically at any cost.
Championed by GoK and orchestrated by her biased media, this toxic and divisive exploit to the regional cohesiveness aimed at discrediting and painting a dully and farce picture on Tanzania as uncooperative and that member that drags the rest from reaching collective agreements within the union.
This however happened contrary to the stipulated objectives of the envisaged common market protocols as enshrined in the EA charter and overseen by the Treaty that established the block and signed for and by all the member states. Surprisingly after the collapse of the first block in 1977.
Spearheaded by Kenya and blindly supported by Uganda and Rwanda after well executed media campaigns; the coined COW had a sole agenda to discriminate and lock out Tanzania from the economics of the EA regional block believing Tanzania will not have a muscle of her own to vie for this lucrative chance to serve and offer transport services to the her hinterlands and landlocked countries in the region.
Unfortunately that turned out to be a bad miscalculation on Tanzania, being first both mining and agricultural country and second having a population evenly distributed across her landmass.
The GoT under JPM saw an opportunity it couldn't afford to miss i.e. a golden chance to serve her ever growing agricultural and mining hinterlands and also economical ever growing Great Lakes countries by chosing to stay with that inefficient old colonial ricketted narrow gauge forever. The country needed to act!
And spotting the immense prospects as well imminent competition from the Northern corridor that construction was way ahead, Tanzania was left with no other option rather than exploiting weaknesses and take a lesson to not repeat those mistakes of her rival kin up North.
Eventually having her act together and pulling everyone on board, the GoT took bold decision to enter the murky dirty water with both feet. On the eve of his swearing in and on his first official State Address, H.E. Magufuli promtly terminated a Chinese contract that the cost were inflated and similar to that of Kenya's.
In a swift recommendable move, Dr. JPM chose to come with a more superior fast electrical SGR instead of Kenya's diesel SGR. And to appreciation of many in the region, a procurement of that fast electrical SGR had to be via an afresh new competitive bidding process that was later won by Yapi Merkezi, a Turkish company, an underdog among Titans but with a profile of experience to show off.
What impressed me most and struck me to the core was that smart noble decision to allocate funds from own Government budget that is $10 bln lower than a kin up North. For every budget year since 2015/2016 at least a a bln US$ has been set aside for SGR and to date nearly 700 km of both phases I & II are under construction.
Though at some point the GoT will have to take a loan be via Eurobond or World Bank, i'm strongly convinced the loan will be of longterm and lowest interest rate the market can offer having secured a B1 Moody's rating. Magufuli's precise decisions and workdone charm-offensive has already wooed the governments of several landlocked countries in the region with Rwanda under the no nonsense leadership of H.E. Paul Kagame already committed to link up with central corridor from October this year.
I hear in Grapeville, one more East African leader already in dilemma and frustrations as far as Northern corridor is faring, is enticed. He is now contemplating to throw a towel and join hands with a more cost effective project, architected by none other than JPM himself.
It's pretty obvious the best approach by JPM with no sinister motives has won the hearts of those landlocked countries who unexpectedly found themselves going south an economic coup d' etat for that "coalition of the willing" goast though this time on merit. Well let's "give dues where most deserving" as an idiom from Kenya's most worshipped colonial master emphasises them to do.
As for now Magufuli as an occupant at Ikulu residence in Magogoni is milking that "cow", unfortunately fattened by Uhuru's bad deeds aside failure to deliver on his promises to the region. Let's not shoot the messenger!
To me no good plans were put in place well ahead as far as having skillfull team at the negotiation table to push for a decent deal i.e. a good loan and a chance to procure a contracor with reasonable charges. Aside that, the inexperienced team failed to woo the neighbors especially Uganda to be onboard from the project's initiation stage as they were not involved.
As a result, the project has ended up being a laughing stock from the mess we are witnessing today. Kenya is suffocating with no room to manoeuvre by conditional loans and binding agreement extended to them being cornered by the Chinese to accept a package with strings attached.
For Uhuru Kenyatta's government, the mission was to build the rail as fast as possible and fulfill his greedy "coalition of the willing" ambitions to isolate Tanzania economically at any cost.
Championed by GoK and orchestrated by her biased media, this toxic and divisive exploit to the regional cohesiveness aimed at discrediting and painting a dully and farce picture on Tanzania as uncooperative and that member that drags the rest from reaching collective agreements within the union.
This however happened contrary to the stipulated objectives of the envisaged common market protocols as enshrined in the EA charter and overseen by the Treaty that established the block and signed for and by all the member states. Surprisingly after the collapse of the first block in 1977.
Spearheaded by Kenya and blindly supported by Uganda and Rwanda after well executed media campaigns; the coined COW had a sole agenda to discriminate and lock out Tanzania from the economics of the EA regional block believing Tanzania will not have a muscle of her own to vie for this lucrative chance to serve and offer transport services to the her hinterlands and landlocked countries in the region.
Unfortunately that turned out to be a bad miscalculation on Tanzania, being first both mining and agricultural country and second having a population evenly distributed across her landmass.
The GoT under JPM saw an opportunity it couldn't afford to miss i.e. a golden chance to serve her ever growing agricultural and mining hinterlands and also economical ever growing Great Lakes countries by chosing to stay with that inefficient old colonial ricketted narrow gauge forever. The country needed to act!
And spotting the immense prospects as well imminent competition from the Northern corridor that construction was way ahead, Tanzania was left with no other option rather than exploiting weaknesses and take a lesson to not repeat those mistakes of her rival kin up North.
Eventually having her act together and pulling everyone on board, the GoT took bold decision to enter the murky dirty water with both feet. On the eve of his swearing in and on his first official State Address, H.E. Magufuli promtly terminated a Chinese contract that the cost were inflated and similar to that of Kenya's.
In a swift recommendable move, Dr. JPM chose to come with a more superior fast electrical SGR instead of Kenya's diesel SGR. And to appreciation of many in the region, a procurement of that fast electrical SGR had to be via an afresh new competitive bidding process that was later won by Yapi Merkezi, a Turkish company, an underdog among Titans but with a profile of experience to show off.
What impressed me most and struck me to the core was that smart noble decision to allocate funds from own Government budget that is $10 bln lower than a kin up North. For every budget year since 2015/2016 at least a a bln US$ has been set aside for SGR and to date nearly 700 km of both phases I & II are under construction.
Though at some point the GoT will have to take a loan be via Eurobond or World Bank, i'm strongly convinced the loan will be of longterm and lowest interest rate the market can offer having secured a B1 Moody's rating. Magufuli's precise decisions and workdone charm-offensive has already wooed the governments of several landlocked countries in the region with Rwanda under the no nonsense leadership of H.E. Paul Kagame already committed to link up with central corridor from October this year.
I hear in Grapeville, one more East African leader already in dilemma and frustrations as far as Northern corridor is faring, is enticed. He is now contemplating to throw a towel and join hands with a more cost effective project, architected by none other than JPM himself.
It's pretty obvious the best approach by JPM with no sinister motives has won the hearts of those landlocked countries who unexpectedly found themselves going south an economic coup d' etat for that "coalition of the willing" goast though this time on merit. Well let's "give dues where most deserving" as an idiom from Kenya's most worshipped colonial master emphasises them to do.
As for now Magufuli as an occupant at Ikulu residence in Magogoni is milking that "cow", unfortunately fattened by Uhuru's bad deeds aside failure to deliver on his promises to the region. Let's not shoot the messenger!
You can always tell where the standard english ends and the geza english begins.
