My thoughts as the 3rd GERD anniversary is celebrated

[Geza Ulole]

[h=3]My thoughts as the 3rd GERD anniversary is celebrated - Part one[/h][h=3]Let me start by congratulating the Ethiopian people in general and the heroes of the GERD at the sight who, undeterred by the heat and cold, are struggling day and night with resolve and determination to make the dam a reality. Rest assured, my compatriots, when all this is over, your good sacrifice (the Ethiopian good) will have won over the Egyptian evil. That day will be the day the world will rejoice and start to flock to Ethiopia to witness the good and the victory. I have been following the Ethiopian news with mixed feelings. There is a lot to be proud of the diligent and hard working Ethiopians that are determined to change the ugly face of poverty from the country once and for all. I am very happy to see the development taking place in all sectors and throughout the country. Most importantly, there is no village left behind in present Ethiopia. While these are good news for Ethiopia and Ethiopians, they have also become the envy to others. Envy can be both positive and negative. It should not be a problem seen from a positive angle. The negative aspect of envy can be that of jealousy. There are those who are jealous that do not want to see anything positive in Ethiopia. Jealousy can't be a good thing. Friends can envy us but enemies would be jealous. Someone who is jealous can't be predictable and often times can come up with destructive ideas. So it is absolutely essential not to be destructed, and to stay stead fast and focused. As we celebrate the 3rd Anniversary of the GERD, I would like to share my thoughts on few selected areas not directly related to the dam.

Construction progress of the GERD on the 3rd year Anniversary
Construction progress of the GERD on the 3rd year Anniversary - march 2014
Egypt, Ethiopia and Abbay

Egypt is not poor in water resources as it customarily portrays itself to be. It is only using the Nile water to fulfill its grand design of being seen as the richest and most affluent in the region at the cost of Ethiopia and other upper riparian countries. It very well knows that once Ethiopia is on the right development path there will not be any return. Perhaps, its fear emanates from three angles namely business, politics and history. From the business point of view, it would mean that Ethiopia would be a serious competitor in the market where Egypt operates. With material wealth also comes political influence. Egypt now claims to be the dominant tourist destination in Africa. It offers one of the oldest history and world civilization that is supported by its pyramids and tombs of the pharaohs. Egypt benefitted tremendously from its tourist sector, while Ethiopia's benefit was negligible. With the accelerated economic development, Ethiopia has started to develop its tourist destinations. It has all of a sudden discovered that it has a wealth of destinations that it can show to the world that can't be matched by Egypt.

As I mentioned earlier, Egypt offers its tourists the pyramids, the sphinx, the tombs of its pharaohs and its diving attraction on the Red Sea. But Ethiopia has much more to offer including the obelisks and tombs of its kings in Axum, the unique rock hewn church of Lalibela, the castles of Gondar, the old churches and monasteries including the floating church, the oldest mosque after Mecca, the safaris, the bird watching, the picturesque wonders of the Semien mountains, the plains, the Afar smoking mountains, the Stonehenge of the south, the Harar Wall, the sanctuary caves of the South East, the rivers, the lakes, the endemic animals and birds, the diverse and rich flora and fauna, the intangible heritages, not to mention the pleasant 13 months of sunshine. Moreover, Egypt wants to keep the status quo that it has the oldest civilisation in Africa. Well, this myth has to change because soon Ethiopia will show to the world that the Ethiopian civilisation precedes that of Egypt and history will be rewritten. All the credit given to Egypt as the source of civilisation is simply racially loaded on the part of European historians that preferred to undermine black people, black civilisation and black history. But those historians' cardinal mistake was that they forgot the fact that whatever civilisation recorded in Egypt was made by the indigenous black Africans (the Nubians and Ethiopians) and was never attributed to the Arab (Balkan and Middle East) settlers. Obviously, tourists equipped with the right information, would certainly prefer to spend their time in Ethiopia as it would give them value for their money. These are perhaps the issues that Egypt fears and not that it would get less water from Abbay. So it must be told that it needs to look to alternative water resources. In fact Egypt has the largest ground water (aquifer) in the region that would last for over 100 years. It is time for Egypt to use this resource instead of moaning and shading crocodile tears.

Egypt is also surrounded by the Red Sea in the east and the Mediterranean Sea in the North. It should use its financial resources from its oil, gas, tourism, chemical, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, etc. sectors to erect a couple of sea water desalination projects. The cost of desalination is not prohibitive these days, as it has significantly become cheaper compared to what it was 20 years ago. The technology is within its reach as well. If Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states that don’t have rivers and that use sea water cab happily exist as they do, why is it difficult for Egypt not to do so? So, Egypt must be told in no simple terms to "live and let live" and think responsibly. Most importantly, it needs to understand that the "age of innocence" is gone forever not to return back, at lease for Ethiopia. It should also be told that using Egypt's population growth as a pretext to flex its muscles and harass others is futile. In fact according to CIA World Fact book, Egypt's 2013 population growth stood at 1.88% while that for Ethiopia was 2.9%. Similarly, the 2050 population forecast for Ethiopia is 143 million while it is 123 million for Egypt. So why is Egypt claiming its own population growth to justify its injustice?

Egypt has been utilising Ethiopia's and Sudan's rightful share of Abbay water for thousands of years and should have been very grateful for the higher material wealth it has achieved. Instead, it is ranting and threatening the upper riparian Nile Basin countries in general and Ethiopia in particular. Now, it is time for Ethiopia to claim compensation from Egypt for all the years until present.

It is important to note that there is confusion over the use of names with respect to the rivers that the three countries refer to. There are three segments of the river Nile. Egypt is talking in terms of the river Nile. This is the segment that stretches from Khartoum to the Mediterranean Sea. Sudan's concern is the one segment that stretches from Ghalabat/Metema to Khartoum and is known as Blue Nile. So Nile and Blue Nile should not be the concern of Ethiopia in its negotiations. I am of the opinion that Ethiopia should at all times use the proper name "Abbay" and nothing else in all discussions relating to the river starting from its source until it reaches Metema. It seems to me that the discussion as it pertains Ethiopia is the amount of water leaving Nile when it reaches Metema before it becomes Blue Nile in Sudan. It may be 30%, 40% or 50% of the flow but it is to be decided within the CFA. Ethiopia should secure its maximum share that it can sell to Egypt (if it wants) until the time the former finds it necessary to utilise it domestically.

I was surprised to read Egypt's increase in its water demand from the current 55.5m3 billion to 83m3 billion. I can say with confidence that I know how it thinks because I have studied with Egyptians, was taught by them and have worked with them. As I know them, they happen to be the most cunning, boot leaking and selfish people on earth. God has given them exceptional gift of the tongue. They are masters in talking sweet. Even an Egyptian peasant that has never been to a school for a day can be a good orator. It can be said that almost all Egyptians are humorous and good to be with, not for a serious matter though. So I am rather uncomfortable over their recent ranting. So far, Government of Ethiopia has done just fine in handling the Egypt and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) though.

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Speaking of the GERD, I don't think the point of discussion at this time should be about equitable use of the water. It seems to me the discussion should revolve around whether the Dam affects the flow of the water to Sudan and Egypt or not. As long as the technical report by the commission that included Egyptian experts has asserted that it doesn't have significant effect, then that is it. The question of water sharing, equitable use, etc. is a matter that will be decided under the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) of the Nile Basin countries. In so far, Ethiopia has gone the extra mile to clear imagined ambiguities and uncertainties about the GERD. So Egypt should praise Ethiopia rather than blame it over imagined and unfounded allegations. But enough is enough. Firstly Ethiopia does not have any legal or moral obligation to open its project to whatever enquiries Egypt may put for they are many and never ending. Secondly, Egypt does not have right what so ever to press Ethiopia to abide by the 1929 and/or 1959 treaties for the simple reason that Ethiopia can't be held responsible to honour treaties that it has never been part of as a signatory.

It is absolutely imperative for Ethiopia to watch the movement of Egypt as Egypt does on Ethiopia directly and through other Arab and non-Arab countries. For instance, Egypt's current shift to Russian war machinery should be of significant concern and an imminent one. According to IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, vol.51 of 26/02/2014, its recent arms deal includes 24 Mig 29 fighters, Tor-M1 short range air defence systems, M24 helicopter gunships, anti-ship missiles, etc. They have requested S-300 long-range air defence systems as well. Certainly, these arsenals are not to be used against Libya, Saudi Arabia, Sudan or Israel. They also have a deal with Germany for the purchase of two submarines armed with Harpoon Block II missiles one of which may have already been delivered or will be delivered soon. Using the submarines from the Red Sea could be one of the most probable measures that the Egyptian Water and Irrigation Ministers had in mind when he ranted and threatened that the venue of negotiation with Ethiopia was over.

Relations with the Gulf

The Arab governments are evil minded. This is no more evident than the revolutions in Libya and Syria. The worst of them is Saudi Arabia (Arabia). In the aftermath of the first huge oil revenue surplus following the 1973 OPEC price hike, Arabia started spending massively to destabilise the Horn of Africa (in essence, it is Ethiopia they destabilised). It is estimated that it has spent over US$50 billion in the last 40 years in its scheme of destabilisation. On another account, Ethiopia and Ethiopians will never forget how King Faisal humiliated Emperor Haileselassie in 1973 as we read from historian Dr George Hagar's writing. We also remember the ranting of a Saudi prince in 2013 from Cairo. Although the House of Saud wisely responded in diplomatic language to Ethiopia's request for clarification, it is hard to comprehend how a member of a royal family, a deputy minister of defence, a policy maker and a chief of staff of the armed forces of the country does not have a knowledge of his government's position. So, whatever the prince uttered must be taken as an official stand of the Kingdom and not treated as an isolated personal reflection of the individual.

Furthermore, when the colour revolution and the Arab-spring-like revolution in Ethiopia failed miserably, Arabia had to devise a scheme on a more effective way of destabilising Ethiopia. Again, the Arabian government anticipated that repatriating a massive number of workers to a struggling economy would cause turmoil in the country and would galvanise people at home to revolt, etc. But what they forgot is that the country they are dealing with is Ethiopia and not just a banana republic. They forgot that Ethiopia's over 7,000 year old institutions are still intact. The institutions can be modernised but they can't be shaken even by the most powerful tsunamis ever. Since Arabia will never ever rest even for a second before it puts Ethiopia under its control, it would be difficult to know what Arabia's next move will be. So, Ethiopia should stop saying "they told us so.., they assured us this ...., we believe them..., we trust them..., etc." rhetoric because the day you trust the Arabs in general and the House of Saud in particular will be the day they bury you alive. Therefore, Ethiopia should always have four plans in its interaction with the Gulf region, i.e. if plan a works, fine; else, plan B, or plan C or else plan D.

Ethiopia innocently thinks that Arabia is a friendly nation, la, bla, bla. But the latter's actions show the contrary. First and foremost, Egypt through "The Buotros Document" has abundantly made it clear that it had no enemy in the East and, therefore, no war with Israel. Mr Buotros Ghali, in his capacity as the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs at the time, vehemently declared that Egypt's next war would be in the south, 'the war for water' and that would be with none other than Ethiopia. Knowing this, Arabia together with Qatar has shown willingness to finance Egypt's US$3 billion arms deal with Russia and is a clear indication that they are on the side of Egypt. Second, the recent ranting and threat made against Ethiopia by the then Saudi Arabian Deputy Minister of Defence who also happened to be a Royal Prince close to the throne and an army general as well. Third, according to IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, Arabia has concluded wider economic and military co-operation agreement with Pakistan. So according to the above mentioned Defence Weekly, Arabia has requested Pakistan to deploy significant number of its troops in Arabia on its border with Yemen and the Persian Gulf region. If so, where will the Saudi troops be deployed? That is a million-dollar question.

It is often mentioned that Arabia is the largest investor in Ethiopia. If this investment excludes Sheikh Al Amoudi's business interests in the country, then we can encourage Arabia's investments. But if it does, then it is evident that Arabia is not interested to invest in Ethiopia. I for one believe that their only interest in Ethiopia is to build Wahabist mosques, Wahabist training centres and to invest on Wahabist militants that would incite conflict similar to the ones in Iraq, Libya and Syria. So, I strongly have the opinion that Arabia should not be granted any agricultural land in Ethiopia. They haven't produced anything so far any way. If they are granted, it should be strictly conditional that they start work within two months if not it should be denied of its privileges.

The Sudanese connection

The current good relationship with the brotherly Sudanese people is appreciated. But Ethiopia should always be cautious in its dealings with that country because it can willingly or unwillingly breech agreements and treaties any time. Trade and commerce between Ethiopia and Sudan should be enhanced. But it shouldn't be forgotten that Sudan calls itself Arab and is a member of the Arab League as well. Sooner or later, Sudan may not be able to go against the will of the Arabs and the Arab League. It has to be known as well that the Arab League that was founded by President Gamal Abdel Nasser to advance Egypt's economic and geopolitical interests in the region is headquartered in Cairo and run by an Egyptian. As such, it would be suicidal for Ethiopia to trust Sudan's verbal promises and compromise Ethiopia's vital interests. Since Sudan says it agrees to equitable use of the Nile water, then the first thing it should do is to sign and ratify the Nile Basin Initiative CFA document. I can't see any reason why it should verbally accept at the same time it keeps the document on hold unless it is trying to get the maximum out of Ethiopia before it positions itself with its long time allay, Egypt. Plans A, B, C and D is, therefore, absolutely necessary for all Ethio-Sudanese relationships.

Ethio-Somalia relations

Somalia has now become a stable government thanks to the heroic sacrifices of the Ethiopian and AMISOM Armed Forces. The relative peace in Somalia has attracted the attention of many countries to the region due to the abundance of resources and its geopolitical strategic importance. But, foreign interest groups may derail the peace and encourage Somalia to start another round of instability to itself and mostly to its neighbour Ethiopia. It should also be noted that Somalia is a member of the Arab League and could be used by the League to continue destabilising the region. The recent Egyptian arms shipment destined to Al-Shabab and intercepted by Yemen is evidence that Egypt will never slow its sinister activities against Ethiopia. Somalia's soft approach to Egypt, not being able to tell Egypt not to meddle in its affairs should be a reason to be watchful as well.

The Eritrean case

Egypt profoundly believes that Eritrea is one of its strongest cards in the evil design it has for Ethiopia. It is well known fact that Egypt was advising, financing, mentoring and arming Eritrea all the way from the beginning of the struggle up to now. However, all its attempts on that front have miserably failed. Eritrea's president Isaias has finally got it that it would be suicidal to start another blunder. From my point of view, Ethiopia shouldn't be bothered to normalise relations with Eritrea at all as long as Shaibia is in power. I have no problem with Eritreans though. They are our brothers and sisters. I also believe that they are good people and proud of their Ethiopian past. They were only hugely deceived by Shaibia cadres with empty promises. They were also intoxicated by the fake and fictitious Eritrean history authored in Baghdad and Kuwait cities by some of their cadres and Arabs, mainly to make them feel have worth. They are so timid that they unconditionally believe tons and tons of lies told to them by their authorities. Their crime is to worship their President even when he lied to them all the time and dictatorially imprisoned and killed their leaders. But, Eritrea is independent now. So if the government of this neighbouring country shows a tendency of being used by Egypt again, then, Ethiopia with no mercy, should decisively respond not proportionally, but exponentially. To borrow a phrase from President Isaias has time and again told us during the 1998/2000 Ethio-Eritrean war that "might is right" and there is no reason why Ethiopia shouldn't play his game to root-out Shaibia if it continues to b a nuisance.

[/h][h=3]My thoughts as the 3rd GERD anniversary is celebrated - Part two[/h][h=3]Diplomacy

Diplomacy is another important area worth mentioning. I am quite sure that most Ethiopian diplomats are highly professional and love the job they do. My problem is not in their political capacity and professionalism. My concern is their willingness to challenge. When I say willingness, I am not using it in a negative way. I am using the word in conjunction with our culture. The Ethiopian cultural attributes of "yilugnta ", decency and politeness have by all means no place in diplomacy. Ethiopian diplomats should have "yilugnta", be decent and polite, if and only if others can understand decency and politeness in a positive way. But the latter are absolutely not, especially those of the West, and there is no reason why Ethiopian diplomats should exercise their national attributes as it would only be talking to the wind. Diplomacy is a cut throat business where everybody is out there to maximise its take (even if it means taking 100%) for his/her country disregarding others. Time and again, we are told that Ethiopia has a “give and take policy” in its dealings with others. I completely agree. Even the west has the same policy. The West would take 99% and give away 1%; it would have given something any way. So, Ethiopian diplomats should play by their own (the West’s) games such that they should always be willing to go for the absolute maximum so that they reach at a favourable level in the process of “give and take”. As I see it, a 50/50 give and take settlement is certainly not a good one for Ethiopia and certainly from others’ point of view as well.

Some of the Ethiopian diplomats seem to lack presentation and interview techniques. This is a very important issue because these people should be able to give a confident, strong and assuring impression about their country, government, its policies and directions. They should be able to command and lead the situation including the media. Unlike the Ethiopian media, the international media would have done a lot of research before they set out for interviews. So the diplomats should be able to take the upper hand at all times. They are not supposed to answer in English if they have no fluency in it. In fact, it is much better to use the national language and communicate through an interpreter rather than messing up. Some have the habit of talking much. There is no point of dwelling six to eight minutes over an issue that can be answered in two or three sentences. Often times, lengthy talks open new unforeseen issues that can detract or even put the speaker in a defensive position. Further point to mention is that it is absolutely not necessary to give undue smiles and giggles. These should be saved to the cocktail and dinner times. As I understand it, it is the substance and the knowledge that comes with it that wins diplomacy and not continuously smiling and giggling while the counterpart is a hard cracker.

Another issue is the diplomacy done around the GERD. Egypt is now threatening to take the Nile issue to the UNSC. They know that Ethiopia and the rest of upper Nile riparian countries have legal right to get a fair share of the water and Egypt have no way of stopping them. However, they must have done their homework in doing the ground work for a diplomatic warfare. If Egypt is not confident that they would have support of the big powers and others in the Security Council, they would never have taken this path at all. What they are up to, it seems to me, is to put diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia so that the latter stops, delays or reduces the GERD construction. But Ethiopia can also flip over the claim to be a continuation of Egypt's historical behaviour of holding the former in perpetual poverty and is a clear security risk and threat to Ethiopia, the sub region and the world at large. So, it is absolutely necessary for Ethiopia to put a lot of effort in bringing the world at large on its side. This should be done continuously and should not stop at all until Ethiopia reaches its right place in the world.
It is time for Ethiopia to take responsibility

I understand that sooner or later, there will be an African representation at the UN Security Council with full rights of a permanent member. I also understand that Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa are contesting for that place and argue that all the three should not be candidates at all. First, I can never imagine even for a second that Egypt would be the right one for the position at least for four reasons.

Egypt's past is tainted by a systematic displacement of the Christian Egyptians and the indigenous Egyptians that are the right owners of the Egyptian proud civilisation and history.

It has no track record of involving in African cause. The only time they turn their face to Africa is when they need the support of African voices.

It is known for its arrogance, bullying, contempt and racial attitude against the Sub-Saharan African countries. Its stance in the Nile Basin countries is an example of such attitude.

Egyptians are big headed and have colonial master mentality when they themselves were victims of colonialism.
Second, Nigeria calls itself 'the Giant of Africa' not only in population but practically in everything that comes to its mind. In spite of the oil wealth, 80% of Nigerians are still poor. Nigeria, while it is the largest oil producer in Sub-Sahara Africa and despite the eight refineries in the country, it still imports refined petrol from neighbouring countries because its refineries don't work efficiently. Its peace keeping forces in Africa did not produce impressive and visible results either. It is to be remembered that Nigeria had accepted the invitation of the AU to send troops to join the AMISOM (African Mission in Somalia) Peace Keeping Force in Somalia only to shamefully withdraw its promise. Where is Nigeria's commitment to African peace then? All this boils down to top-down corruption. The recent raw between the President and the ex Governor of the Bank of Nigeria over a missing US$20 billion is a case in point. But Nigerians are even talking about US$80 billion missing. They are seen with suspicion where ever they go. Nigeria was an alternate member of the UN Security Council prior to the Libyan Arab spring. It voted for a negotiated settlement of the Libyan crisis at the AU Security Council resolution. At the same time, it voted for bombing of Libya at the UN Security Council resolution. It should have voted to either one rather than voting for both opposing resolutions and have clearly shown indecisiveness. It was similar in the case of Libya. It seems Nigeria would easily be swayed to using force. And force is what the world doesn't need this time around. So it lacks consistency, credibility and can easily be subservient thus compromising the vital interests of Africa, Africans and the world at large. I, therefore, believe that Nigeria won't be the right candidate to represent Africa for the UN Security Council permanent seat.
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Third, South Africa is a great nation and enjoys a relatively higher material wealth in the continent seen grossly. The majority of its citizens are still poor. The party that replaced the apartheid government failed to bring economic justice in SA. It seems to me that there was cosmetic face lifting upfront in the manner of creating some black elites, otherwise the second tier bureaucracy is the same old story we know. The country has the highest level of criminality in Africa. Corruption is also rampant. It is true that SA has gone through difficult times during the apartheid period. I hardly believe that SA understands the problem and psychic of Africa in general and that of the sub-Saharan Africa in particular, though. Similar to Nigeria, SA also broke its promise to the AU with respect to committing its forces to join the AMISOM Peace Keeping Force in Somalia. Again similar to Nigeria, SA was an alternate member of the UN Security Council. It voted for the UNSC resolution that allowed the bombing of a sovereign African state, thus, contradicting the AU resolution that supported a negotiated peaceful settlement to which they were also a party. The worst and mind boggling as such is when President Zuma side-lined both the AU and UN resolutions and travelled to Libya to make a deal of his own, God knows what, without consulting AU and other African countries. At that time, I considered the move as contempt to the AU. So when all these and other possible reasons are weighted, having a bigger economy can't be a necessary and sufficient condition to suggest SA as a candidate for the UN Security Council seat.

Ethiopia, however, has a track record of being a voice for the voiceless not only in Africa but to the rest of the oppressed world. It has always voiced for world peace and justice, against apartheid, against colonialism, for humanity, against poverty, etc. There is ample evidence that various platforms including the United Nations, African Union, UNCTAD, the former ACP (African, Caribbean and Pacific) Non-Aligned Movement, World Climate Forum, etc. Ethiopia did not shy away from being more than willing to help bring/keep peace in Abyei, Algeria-Morocco, Burundi, Congo, Darfur, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Korea and South Sudan. I strongly believe that Ethiopia is the only country that understands the needs of Africa and the world at large. It has the pedigree to sit at the UN Security Council as a permanent member and it would be a lost opportunity if Ethiopia does not apply for membership.

Security and the armed forces

Intelligence is one of the integral parts in the tools that nations use to safeguard their national interests. A country that has a very strong espionage unit is most likely to have formidable armed forces. Ethiopia's strength should also be measured by the strength of its security forces. In view of the fact that it is encircled by the Arab League (Eritrea being an observer member), it is absolutely necessary for Ethiopia to have a detailed knowledge of what is going on in these countries. It should at all times have up to date and detailed information about everything, classified or not, even including what is in their minds. Ethiopia can't afford to wait preaching peace until the enemies throw few bombs inside its territory and inflict damage. So far, it has given priority to peace and was always the victim, never ever the aggressor. It is different times now. The enemies are vicious more than ever and the weapons are lethal. Besides, we understand very well that Ethiopia does not have any friend. The Ethio-Eritrea war of 1998-2000 is a recent reminder of this fact. The world knew that Ethiopia was the victim, and yet it was biased in favour of Eritrea going all the way to appease it, breaking international laws and norms. The former has failed it repeatedly before and it will definitely do so again. So Ethiopia must adopt a principle of deterrent rather than defence. In the event that peace seems not to work, the next move, as a matter of priority, should be to quickly contain the danger from happening in its own territory. The 2006 mission against the then CIC in Somalia was a welcome move and a successful as such. But containment should be very quick, efficient and effective so as to minimise the cost in all its forms.

The fact that Ethiopia is land locked makes it exposed to the most highly scrutinised military hardware imports. In other words, all its imports are scrutinised. Historical and potential enemies know before it even enters the country. So there is no option for Ethiopia other than being self sufficient in its military hard ware. It took China 30 years only to reach where it is now and is self sufficient in all sectors including space sciences. They did all that parallel. Same must be done in Ethiopia. It can do it even faster. Besides, it should not be limited to defence only. It should, instead, build formidable mighty armed forces. The Ethiopian Air Force has always been at the frontier at least in using its equipments professionally. But when the technology gets more advanced, it has to prepare itself for electronic warfare system. This means it needs to have escort jamming aircrafts that provide adequate protection to its attack squadrons. The armed forces must be equipped with a very advanced research unit that absorbs the most able and talented young minds. Besides being self sufficient, successful defence industry can have lucrative and sustainable market potential as well.

IT vulnerability

Ethiopia is very weak and vulnerable when it comes to IT. At present, it can't even compete with countries such as Kenya, Rwanda and Sudan leave alone with other powerful IT nations. Cyber warfare is imminent and such activities will be intensified. If the Arabs in general and Egypt in particular decide to attack, the starting point would be neutralising all systems through cyber attack. We are currently witnessing frequent power cuts in Ethiopia. How do we know that the central grid is not attacked? For instance, it is possible to do all sorts of harm on the grid from anywhere remotely through cyber attack. So it is of paramount urgency that Ethiopia heavily invests in IT. For that matter, the late PM Meles mentioned of erecting an IT hub but it seems it has been shelved similar to other projects such as the huge refinery near Diredawa that he talked about.

The legal system

I have noticed recently that the Ethiopian legal system is unduly lenient. For instance, a court recently passed a 15 years or less prison sentence to a premeditated murder. There was even a case where the perpetrator got seven years prison sentence only. Another case was a criminal that was sentenced to 15 years only for brutally murdering his aunt and fatally injuring her daughter. It is mind boggling really. About six month ago, the US courts faced a case where a man kidnapped three women, kept them for about ten years and raped them. The court sentenced the criminal to a life time plus 1000 years in prison. It was never a murder case and yet the judge had to give him harsh sentence. It is not that the US judges are cruel and mean. It is because harsh sentences can definitely deter future crimes of this nature. So I am of the opinion that the Ethiopian courts must give a much harder prison sentences specially to murder, treason and high profile corruption cases. There are cases where financial officers of big US companies were sentenced up to 500 years in prison for committing financial irregularities that are worth mentioning. The same is true with drug traffickers. Drug traffickers should be seen in light of mass murdering the youth that is the future of every nation, and need to get the harshest sentences. Remember, some South East Asian countries such as Singapore pass death sentences to those caught with drugs. Ethiopia should even ban and criminalise the use of Shisha and Kat leave alone other drugs.

What is wrong with our language?

It seems to me that Ethiopia needs top down Cultural Revolution, less so in Afar and Somali regions. In the first place, it is absolutely despicable to hear senior staff not able to speak in Amharic, Tigrigna, Oromigna, etc. when they communicate with their own people. They are fond of mixing English words in every sentence they throw even if it means talking to the farmers. This is shameful and disrespectful to the respective nations and nationalities that are the owners of the language. The language used by the reporters is even worse when they, in particular, are expected to be the vanguards of culture and proper usage of the language that all would aspire to learn from. I became disgusted and saddened by one of the reporters that put a series of questions to PM Hailemariam in one of his recent press conferences. All the reporters forwarded their questions in Amharic with roughly about 25% English words but one definitely showed exceptional contempt to the rich and beautiful Amharic language. It is exceptional in the sense that the Amharic content of his utterance was less than 20%. His English was not brilliant either. The Prime Minister must have struggled hard but was able to scramble the questions and give them commendable answers. Most of the English reporters are definitely misplaced never mind the wrong information they air from time to time.

[/h][h=3]My thoughts as the 3rd GERD anniversary is celebrated - Part three[/h][h=3]

The agricultural sector
Ethiopia should protect its traditional crop and cotton seeds. We all know where the world is going now. We should be aware that the few agribusiness multinationals are out to control the food and water in the world. Monsanto is the foremost among these. It has caused a lot of misery to millions where ever it puts its foot. It has become the most powerful and vicious company in the world. What it does is that it corrupts politicians and governments to allow their farmers to accept to use its Genetically Modified (GM) seeds. It also corrupts the academics so that they can indorse their illicit and unethical business model. But the use of GM seeds has become a curse than a blessing to the Canadian, American, Mexican, Brazilian, Indian, etc. farmers. Once farmers start using GM seeds, the soil will never ever grow other seeds so as to use crop variation in the traditional sense. The farmers will totally be dependent on the GM seeds only. There are plenty of litigations against Monsanto in the US, Canada, India, Brazil, Mexico, etc. But it has become real difficult to win over Monsanto due to its very sophisticated and powerful army of lawyers. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers have committed and are still committing suicides following the indebtedness to Monsanto. Certainly, Ethiopia and Ethiopian farmers don't want that. The GM seeds include edible crops as well as cotton seeds. So the only option is to keep Monsanto far away and not to think about it ever.

The much talked-about oil sector

As I see it, all resources in the ground are the properties of the Ethiopian people. It is very important to be wary when signing agreements with so called foreign investors especially in the mining sector. Often times, foreign companies are bent on deceiving governments when they inappropriate land for mineral exploration. They give empty promises saying that you will earn lots of money, etc. By the time the country realises it is not getting what it was promised, then it becomes too late to dishonour the contract due to some binding clauses. The foreign companies would also take the case to be judged in their own countries under their legal systems that give them full protection. Before awarding contracts, the Ethiopian government should make a through checking of the contracting companies. It should know its financial viability, technological knowhow, logistical capabilities, work ethics, project delivery rate, litigation history, etc. Then contracts should be formed in such a way that the companies would cover their capital expenditure, operational costs and reasonable agreed profits. It should also never ever allow disputes to be considered under the jurisdictions of the foreign companies as they happen. The Ethiopian legal system is as good as any other system and even better in some instances.

Ghana is now bleeding because it signed a contract giving away 95% of its resources in the ground. I don't know for how many years though, definitely several decades. Let us for a moment take a highly simplistic example of oil exploration and production contract with the Ghanaian scenario. If Ghana is producing 500,000 barrels a day at US$100/barrel for 365 days, its annual earning will be about US$1 billion while the foreign contractor takes home over US$17 billion per year. If the total cost up to production is US$2 billion, this cost would have been paid in full and would have already made a profit of US$15 billion in the first year alone. If the contract is signed for 30 years at which time the resource would have been exhausted, then Ghana would have surrendered over US$500 billion out of the total US$547 billion worth of its resources to foreign companies without benefitting itself. Why should it be like that? These types of business deals are definitely the sources of dissent.

Angered by the attitude of the multinational mineral and oil extractors, President Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia ordered a representative of an American oil giant expelled from his country and warned him not to come back ever. This is because he felt committing crime against The Gambian people if he accepted 5% for its oil wealth and give away unconscionable 95% for the extracting foreign company as the American representative suggested. This disproportionate formula is not limited to the oil sector only but foreign multinational companies apply it to other mineral extractions as well. What is alarming is that this disproportionate sharing of the revenue is punitively applied to Sub-Saharan African countries only.

We have noticed that foreign oil companies are not ready to do business in Ethiopia. There have been many companies that searched for oil in the Ogaden region. They all left giving flimsy and dismal reasons such as security issues. Even China that is hungry for oil, gas and other resources seems to be deterred from proceeding. There was a Canadian company who claimed that the oil that was found in Gambela was commercial quantity and that it would start production soon. But then it just left faster than anything. So how do we know that countries like Arabia are not behind all this? For instance, if Arabia does not want an economically strong neighbour Ethiopia, it has the financial might to either threaten these companies or offer them huge sums so that they shut and leave. I was given to understand by a person with knowledge of the oil sector that for companies to shut and go, the only reason must be that the quantity is so huge and would be a concern for political instability. If Arabia is concerned about this, so will US due to their strong all round treaty between them. By the way, why is the Saudi citizen Mohammed Alamoudi not interested in oil and gas exploration in Ethiopia? His Coral Petroleum Company would have been the first to get it unless constraint is put on him.

So what Ethiopia should do is one of or a combination of the following if it wants to get significant benefit out of its oil resources.

One way is to give concessions to Western foreign multinationals often termed as "the first Seven Sisters" (BP, Chevron, Esso, Exxon, Gulf Oil, Shell and Standard Oil) on a fair deal basis similar to that in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. A deal less than a majority of the earnings is an extremely bad deal for Ethiopia. Ethiopia should have up-to-date full knowledge of what and how much is produced and the amount exported at all times.
Explore and extract on a joint venture scheme with foreign companies for a limited number of years. Over all management should be reserved to Ethiopians and the quantity produced as well as quantity exported should be transparent.
The only option that would empower Ethiopia is to start a local public company. It needs to establish an Ethiopian national oil company with full government ownership that will do the exploration, extraction and distribution. This national company will join "the second seven sisters" (Brazil's, Petrobras, China's China National Petroleum Corporation and Petrochina, Iran's The National Iranian Oil Company, Malaysia's Petronas, Russia's Gasprom, Saudi's Saudi Aramco, and Venezuela's POVSA all of which are wholly government owned) and become "the eighth sister". This would allow Ethiopia to manage its own resources and make it full beneficiary. In order to do that, Ethiopia should open an 'institute of petroleum studies' in one of the universities at MSc level. It should also identify all Ethiopians working in various oil companies all over the world who have accumulated experiences and involve them domestically. The Metal and Engineering Corporation is now capable of producing the necessary machineries for the oil industry locally. What Ethiopia needs is to employ expatriate experts and skilled workers where there is deficiency. This is the most preferred option for Ethiopia as it will have full ownership and control of its resources.
Capitalising on Ethiopia's other resources

As the late PM Meles once noted, Ethiopia should work hard to capitalise and benefit from the resources it has. First things first though. With population explosion and economic growth, world food consumption would rise. The land and the water that can produce this food are scarce in most places but abundant in Ethiopia. The other resources are the good weather and the skilled young manpower the country is endowed with. If these factors of production are combined with modern farming technology to bring the level of food production to the frontier, then Ethiopia could feed the rest of Africa. Furthermore, if Ethiopia works in union with Sudan, both countries could feed the world. Ethiopia has already shown that it can build a solid economy without the blessing of the oil.

The abundant tourism destinations that the country possesses are another marvel. It only needs to be well organised and accessible to visitors. This industry needs creating highly attractive environment including hotels, restaurants, roads, recreational centres, libraries and information centres that are up to the international standard and beyond. Accessibility of fault frees telephone (both land line and mobile) as well as fast and reliable internet at all destinations is not an option. It is absolutely a must. The availability of professional tourist guides is a prerequisite though. Then marketing it is the crux of the matter. I don't think it is a good idea to intensify on the marketing of tourism destinations when there is a lot lacking. Once this is done, intensified marketing in China only could enable Ethiopia to benefit from the over US$360 billion the Chinese spend overseas annually in tourism.

Then there are the energy and manufacturing sectors that are bearing fruit. In my opinion, Ethiopia should stop bothering on oil exploration for now. Once it has built its economy, it can take the oil by itself without surrendering its God given resources to the vultures (the seven sisters and their cousins). For that matter it wouldn't even be possible for Ethiopia to know how much is extracted because there is a lot of theft, deception, etc. in the oil sector. Also, Dr Mohamed Alamoudi would have been the first to go into the oil sector through his Coral Petroleum Company unless there is sufficient reason that he knows not to do so.

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One of the most lucrative businesses in the world at present as well as in the future is the pharmaceutical industry. Most of the medicines in the world are made from herbs, leaves, roots and trees. The flora in this country is so rich that there are only few countries elsewhere that can compare it. There are also ample evidences from the traditional medicine men to suggest that Ethiopia could significantly benefit from this gift that nature has abundantly bestowed it. It has not done in the past but it should be about time to turn this around. Now that there are so many universities in the country, all or some must be encouraged to train highly bright students in pharmacology and the like. The traditional medicines must be given scientific measurements and standards and should be patented. Foreigners should not be allowed to come and benefit from our flora and tie the hands and minds of Ethiopian future generations with their nonsensical intellectual property and patent rules. If allowed it must be conditional that Ethiopia would claim proprietary or share ownership. This way, Ethiopia could have a very strong position in the global pharmaceutical industry. Speaking of intellectual property and patents, these are the two most important ploys with which the haves control the not haves. I have no problem with both concepts though. My worry is how long should the exploitation continue. For instance, a 16 year old who is musically gifted sings a song that became a hit over night. The work may have taken a week or two yet the intellectual property law entitles him/her to claim royalties for the rest of the life of the singer (e.g. 70 years, assuming he/she dies at 86) plus additional 50 years after his/her death. Does it make sense? Not to me. But this is a ploy by Hollywood who controls and benefits from all this. So Ethiopia has golden opportunity in not signing or at least, it should give it a very hard thought and look into 300 to 500 years ahead.

Dealing with corruption

Corruption is the worst crime for a country because it has the behaviour of embezzling public assets, halting local and foreign direct investment, retarding development, discouraging entrepreneurship, frustrating creativity of citizens, exposing citizens to migration and can further be a cause for conflicts and political destabilisation. But the worst of them is signing a contract for oil exploration concession to foreign companies for a dismal 3%, 5% or 10% royalty of the earnings, thus, handing over the rest to the foreign companies. More so, it is absolutely a crime to allow the foreign companies to keep the earnings in offshore banks instead of bringing them to the countries from where exports were made. The foreign companies would never think of offering such deals to the Middle East and Gulf States because it is the owners of the resources in the ground that get much of the benefit. So contracts over allowing concessions to foreign extracting companies of oil and mining should be highly scrutinised by the parliaments the General Auditors Offices and other relevant bodies.

The Ethiopian government shouldn't expect to attract foreign investment no matter how much it tries if there is corruption in the country. Investors don't just want to move to a country where corruption is rampant and would be a bottle neck for their business concepts. They would be attracted to countries where there are resources including skilled and cheap labour. But price competitiveness by itself is not sufficient criteria if they can't do their business fast, efficient and smooth without any sort of rent seeking whatsoever. Some local contractors in the construction industry are also involved in cutting corners by using substandard engineering materials and works. Some of them are even so greedy they take contract beyond their financial technical capacity. They also tactically procrastrate projects so as to claim price increase of materials and therefore raise the cost of the project. Some of these crimes are done in tandem by all contractors involved. So in order for the government (owner) to safeguard public money,

It should be absolutely sure of the technical and financial capacity of the contractors. It should also know that the contractor would use the best material that would strictly confirm to the material standard prescribed in the specifications.
It should demand from the contractors’ bank guarantors to be submitted together with the tender documents. What this does is that it protects the owner from loss of its resources in the event that the contractors fail to deliver. The construction contractor should also demand a bank guarantor from the material supplying contractors and other sub-contractors. Copies of these should be handed over to the owner of the project at the time of submitting the tender document. In other words, copies of guarantors should be part of the tender documents that are submitted at the closing dates. Alternatively, these documents could be submitted soon after winning the contracts and before work formally begins. This insures that the materials contractor would supply the right materials according to the specifications. The guarantor banks should also be scrutinised for their viability in cases of litigation over failure of the contractor to deliver strictly according to the specifications of the project and on time. This is a normal procedure practiced in the UK and elsewhere in the developed world.
Contract awarding body should never pay cash in advance. Payment should be made in trenches on the basis of the work progress. So first trench (e.g. 30%) should be released after the owner is satisfied that 30% of the work is accomplished. The last trench would then be paid after 100% completion and full satisfaction. There must be grace period for determining full satisfaction as well.
We have heard some projects such as roads and bridges have been broken within months after completion. Residents were evacuated from a building that was tilting couple of years after completion. University buildings leaked before they commenced work. Sub-standard hospital buildings were accepted as satisfactory only for the massive defects to show soon after commissioning. There are so many cases like these all over the country. The behaviour of these local contractors can't be accepted. One mistake is too many. So owner must see that there must be a clause whereby the contractor and its guarantor will be held responsible for failures that can emerge up to two or 3 years from completion depending on the project. Tax payer’s money should never ever be squandered in this way. That is why the owner of the projects should get its money back from the guarantors of the contractors.
Very harsh prison sentences including capital punishment should be given for those who perpetrated for capital gains rather than lack of capacity. China can't tolerate such behaviour and does not shy to execute those found guilty. So if we say we have a lot to learn from China, why not, this is the one.
Similarly, hording of consumer goods is another crime against country and people. It is an economic sabotage that has the potential to be a cause for riots and conflicts. The government should consider hording as a very serious crime that can't be taken lightly. Any citizen or groups of citizens found hording consumer goods with the intention of creating scarcity in order for them to make huge profits by raising prices should get capital punishment with immediate effect. This process has to be repeated as long as it takes until the so called Ethiopian quasi business community gets it. Some companies started hording consumer goods during the initial period of the Derg regime and were immediately executed. One of the executed executives (in connection to hording salt) was a person that I know. I don't mean to subscribe Derg's actions but this was the one and only good decision it made and there was no more hording that took place for a considerable time after.

One way of controlling crime and corruption is to control on the payment system. What I mean by payment system is that business to business cash transactions should be discouraged by all means. Payments should be made from an account of the buyer to an account of the seller through the banking system. Big quantity cash withdrawals should be discouraged. I heard recently that a holder of Commercial Bank of Ethiopian ATM card can withdraw ETB50, 000 per day (about £1600). For one of the poorest countries in the world this is really very generous unheard of anywhere in the developed world. For instance, the maximum amount an individual can withdraw in the UK is £300. One needs to go to the counter if he/she needs to withdraw more. Also, it is very important that banks know the source of the cash money if people come with huge sums to deposit in their account. This would be an effort to fight corruption and money laundering. Banks must be held responsible for involving in money laundering and financial crimes. They should, therefore, ask for the source of that money and get solid evidence. More so, they must have a forensic financial investigation unit that would facilitate information as and when suspicious transactions occur. All suspicious transactions and possession of big quantity cash money whose source can't be ascertained should immediately be reported to the police.

All salaries and wages should be paid to the bank accounts of the work force, whether private or public. So people must be encouraged to open saving accounts. If anybody is told that his/her salary/wages can only be paid to a bank account then they would be forced to open accounts. This would directly boost savings in the country.http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/gerd-march-2014orion.html
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