Kessy Wa Kilimanjaro
JF-Expert Member
- Jan 23, 2016
- 327
- 209
Serikali ya Magufuli ilivyoanza ilionekana haieleweki. Lakini sasa hivi nimeifikiria na kufika kwenye ufafanuzi. Naomba kama wewe hutakubaliana na mimi uisome hii hoja vizuri na unijibu kwa kutumia hekima na utafiti.
Hitimisho nililolifikia baada ya kuchunguza serikali ya awamu hii na mwenendo wake ni kwamba wanaiga au wanapata ushawishi mkubwa kutoka kwa Serikali ya China. Hili siyo swala jipya kwasababu China ilikuwa inajihusisha na Tanzania tangia miaka ya 1970. Lakini tatizo linatokana na Nia zao, mbinu zao, sera zao za kiuchumi na matokeo na madhara yake.
Ili Kuelewa sera za kiuchumi za China tunatakiwa kuelewa kwamba China inaendeshwa na chama kimoja ambacho ni cha kikomunisti. Na ni hicho chama pekee hamna vyengine. Na unaweza kujisomea mwenyewe lakini serikali inayooendeshwa na mfumo wa kikomunisti hauruusugi uhuru mkubwa wa kiuchumi, kifikra, kielimu na hata kimaisha.
China ilivyoanza kuendelea ilitokana na kuongezwa kwa uhuru kwenye sekta binafsi na liberalization ya uchumi. Lakini watu wengi wanafikiri ni kutokana na serikali ya china kupoteza mabilioni kwenye kujenga miundombinu. Hii ndiyo sera magufuli na awamu hii wanaiga na wanafikiri ndiyo italeta maendeleo.
Sera ya kujenga miundombinu kupitia kuongeza kodi itafeli. China walijaribu kufanya hilli jambo kwa kuongeza matumizi kujenga miundombinu lakini faida walioipata haikufikia na wala haikutosha kulipia matumizi na sasa hivi wako na moja ya madeni kubwa kuliko nchi nyingi duniani. Hii fikra kwamba kuongeza matumizi ya serikali na kuongeza kodi ili kujenga miundo mbinu itaiponza Tanzania na kuongeza deni letu ambalo sasahivi ni $16 billion plus.
Hii research kutoka kwa Financial Times imefanya ufafiti mzuri sana
More than half of Chinese infrastructure investments have “destroyed, not generated” economic value as the costs have been larger than the benefits, according to researchers at Oxford university, a finding that will fuel debate over the viability of China’s infrastructure-heavy growth model.
But such investment leads to significant waste while adding to China’s worrying debt load, says the paper by Oxford professors, led by Atif Ansar, a lecturer at Oxford’s Saïd Business School.
“Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return,” the paper found.
“Poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis.”
“It is a myth that China grew thanks largely to heavy infrastructure investment. It grew due to bold economic liberalisation and institutional reforms, and this growth is now threatened by over-investment in low-grade infrastructure,” Mr Ansar said.
Hitimisho nililolifikia baada ya kuchunguza serikali ya awamu hii na mwenendo wake ni kwamba wanaiga au wanapata ushawishi mkubwa kutoka kwa Serikali ya China. Hili siyo swala jipya kwasababu China ilikuwa inajihusisha na Tanzania tangia miaka ya 1970. Lakini tatizo linatokana na Nia zao, mbinu zao, sera zao za kiuchumi na matokeo na madhara yake.
Ili Kuelewa sera za kiuchumi za China tunatakiwa kuelewa kwamba China inaendeshwa na chama kimoja ambacho ni cha kikomunisti. Na ni hicho chama pekee hamna vyengine. Na unaweza kujisomea mwenyewe lakini serikali inayooendeshwa na mfumo wa kikomunisti hauruusugi uhuru mkubwa wa kiuchumi, kifikra, kielimu na hata kimaisha.
China ilivyoanza kuendelea ilitokana na kuongezwa kwa uhuru kwenye sekta binafsi na liberalization ya uchumi. Lakini watu wengi wanafikiri ni kutokana na serikali ya china kupoteza mabilioni kwenye kujenga miundombinu. Hii ndiyo sera magufuli na awamu hii wanaiga na wanafikiri ndiyo italeta maendeleo.
Sera ya kujenga miundombinu kupitia kuongeza kodi itafeli. China walijaribu kufanya hilli jambo kwa kuongeza matumizi kujenga miundombinu lakini faida walioipata haikufikia na wala haikutosha kulipia matumizi na sasa hivi wako na moja ya madeni kubwa kuliko nchi nyingi duniani. Hii fikra kwamba kuongeza matumizi ya serikali na kuongeza kodi ili kujenga miundo mbinu itaiponza Tanzania na kuongeza deni letu ambalo sasahivi ni $16 billion plus.
Hii research kutoka kwa Financial Times imefanya ufafiti mzuri sana
More than half of Chinese infrastructure investments have “destroyed, not generated” economic value as the costs have been larger than the benefits, according to researchers at Oxford university, a finding that will fuel debate over the viability of China’s infrastructure-heavy growth model.
But such investment leads to significant waste while adding to China’s worrying debt load, says the paper by Oxford professors, led by Atif Ansar, a lecturer at Oxford’s Saïd Business School.
“Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return,” the paper found.
“Poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis.”
“It is a myth that China grew thanks largely to heavy infrastructure investment. It grew due to bold economic liberalisation and institutional reforms, and this growth is now threatened by over-investment in low-grade infrastructure,” Mr Ansar said.