A good analytical piece by Anyang Nyong'o.
Recent events involving the building of the trans Eastern Africa railway and pipe lines have led some to comment that Kenya may soon lose out to Tanzania and Rwanda as the epicenter of the economies of Eastern Africa. That may be true only if Kenya does nothing to re-engineer her geo-economic strategy. If she does re-engineer, coming back as a top player in the region is Kenya’s for the taking, notwithstanding Uganda’s preference to align her access to the Indian Ocean through a railway link with Tanzanian ports.
Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia are relatively stable political systems in the region; but the stability of Ethiopia depends on how long the authoritarian state will remain developmental with the people foregoing democratic freedoms in exchange for economic dividends. Otherwise all the other states in the region are volatile politically. The extreme case of volatility is Somalia which has been “a failed state” ever since the collapse of the government of Siad Barre. That leaves only Kenya and Tanzania as long term havens of peace and political stability in the region. But Kenya may lose her head-start against Tanzania if she fails to re-engineer rapid economic growth with equity, a necessary pre-condition for peace and stability.
Notwithstanding her own internal political and economic problems, Kenya is still a relatively much stronger state within the region. Although Afrobarometer may put Kenya lower on democratic governance than Tanzania, the dynamism of civil society in Kenya is a better guarantee for building democratic institutions than Tanzania. The other member states within the region still look up to Kenya for leadership, a role she has not played very well since the Jubilee government came to power. To maintain her political leadership, Kenya should pay keen attention to the following.
First, Operation Linda Nchi, Kenya’s military entry into Somalia, should have long been abandoned. Although now part of EMISOM, the military presence should be re-evaluated, taking into account the ignominy of the sugar/charcoal trade, the losses to Al Shabaab, the implications to
our economy and the need for a reconstructed EMISOM. In this regard we should engage with a small group of experts who should give us a more informed perspective and data regarding the issues at hand. We need to make public the UN Report on the charcoal and sugar smuggling and its implication on our military relationships (if any) with Al Shabaab. A policy of withdrawal cannot be advanced without this well researched narrative, openly interrogated so as to avoid any future misadventure.
Second, our close relationship with our partners in the East African Community needs to be re-engineered notwithstanding the recent goofs on the railway and pipeline collapsed “deals”. Our approach was presumptuous and poorly researched, making wrong assumptions regarding Museveni’s regional options after succeeding to get back to power with the acquiescence of the West. Uganda is our biggest trading partner in the region. We also have much deeper cultural and historical ties with Uganda than any other East African Community country. Tanzania and Southern Sudan follow very closely. Uganda is currently in a political transition. Museveni’s government is on its way out after the next five years when NRM is bound to implode more successfully. We must position ourselves strategically to be on the right side of history as Uganda changes. Let us invest much more into the change process in Uganda by providing leadership in the region and linking up with external powers to craft a new democratic alternative to the botched elections meant to keep Museveni in power. Let us keep our friendship with Tanzania and reach out to Ethiopia and Southern Sudan with much less benign neglect that is apparent in our regional politics.