If Current Growth Rate Remains Constant, Tanzania Will Overtake Kenya GDP in 2038

[kennedy0000]

We have heard many times that Tanzania is on the verge of overtaking Kenya to become the largest economy in East Africa.
Some of the numbers thrown around are 2 years, 5 years, soon etc. However, all of these are made up.

If both countries maintain their current growth rates, it will take at least 21 years for Tanzania to overtake Kenya.

This calculation is based on Tanzania's 7% annual growth rate and Kenya's 5%.
(Note that Kenya's actual growth rate is usually higher than that, around 5.6%. If Kenya grows at a constant 5.6%, the 21 years increase to 30 years.).

For the 21 year estimate to hold, these figures must remain consistent. i.e. if Tanzania grows at below 7% or Kenya grows at higher than 5%, the number of years Tanzania requires to close the gap can shoot up considerably.

How did I arrive at these figures?

Using a savings interest calculator, using the 2017 IMF GDP figures.
i.e.
Kenya - $75 billion
Tanzania - $51.1 billion

If both countries maintain the growth rates, this is how the GDPs will look like in 2038 (the year Tanzania overtakes Kenya).

Tanzania - $211.58 billion
Kenya - $208.95 billion

Assuming we work with the 2015 figures, where Tanzania's GDP was $44.9 billion and Kenya's was $63.4 billion, (maintaining % growth at 5% of KE and 7% for TZ) it will take 19 years for Tanzania to overtake Kenya.

However, the reality is that to grow at a constant % every year is impossible for any country. There will be ups and downs. Therefore, while we can use mathematics to predict that TZ will most likely not overtake Kenya before 2038, it is likely it will not even happen in most of our lifetimes.

Savings interest calculator by CNN

 

[Jay456watt]

hahahaha...hakuna kitu kama constant...GDP growth has variability and flexibility. Kumbuka Kenya itaanza ku export mafuta yake hivi karibuni...this will alter the GDP growth...so there is nothing like 'remain constant' ...sometimes GDP shrinks sometimes it grows....lol! kusema 'remain constant' is like predicting the future...there are practically millions of variables that can alter GDP growth...Elections, (Natural disasters like Drought), inflation, Insecurity like Alshabaab threats...just to name a few...therefore, it might be 2038 or it might be 2088...it might even be in a few years time (NB: there is a possibility)...it all depends...Kenya has to be really messed up for it to happen in those years....civil war, drought, violence etc

 

[Mtengwa II]

arithmetical error!!

 

[kennedy0000]

hahahaha...hakuna kitu kama constant...GDP growth has variability and flexibility. Kumbuka Kenya itaanza ku export mafuta yake hivi karibuni...this will alter the GDP growth...so there is nothing like 'remain constant' ...sometimes GDP shrinks sometimes it grows....lol! kusema 'remain constant' is like predicting the future...there are practically millions of variables that can alter GDP growth...Elections, (Natural disasters like Drought), inflation, Insecurity like Alshabaab threats...etc...it might be 2038 or it might be 2088...it might even be in a few years time...it all depends...

There's a drought in Kenya, growth rate still being predicted at above 5%. Al shabaab has never slowed it down to under 5.6%. Unlike Nigeria, Kenya does not depend on a single mineral, so prices cannot drastically affect. Election slows it down for 1 year.
Therefore, realistically it will never go to below certain numbers. 2038 is the minimum.. But Tanzania can't overtake Kenya before then.

 

[MK254]

Oh boy, here we go again, haya njooni na mahasebau yenu uchwara Cicero nawaita mapema tu.

 

[kennedy0000]

arithmetical error!!

Hahaha.. Wapi?
Link ya calculator iko hapo chini.

 

[Jay456watt]

There's a drought in Kenya, growth rate still being predicted at above 5%. Al shabaab has never slowed it down to under 5.6%. Unlike Nigeria, Kenya does not depend on a single mineral, so prices cannot drastically affect. Election slows it down for 1 year.
Therefore, realistically it will never go to below certain numbers. 2038 is the minimum.. But Tanzania can't overtake Kenya before then.

ur right na nakuelewa sana ila hii ni calculator mtu yeyote anaweza tumia...kwa hiyo, if it "remains constant" which is "almost impossible' then 2038 is the minimum...najua hii itawapa watanzania wenzetu wasiwasi na kuwafanya wakose usingizi...hehe...tanzania ni kama Cain aliye msikilia ndugu yake Abel wivu na kutaka kumwibia baraka na hatimaye kumuua...hehe leteni povu sasa...the laziest people in the world....sijawahi kuona mtu anayetamani title ya mwenzake kama hawa wana darisslum......

 

[LangatKipro]

Kenyans and Tanzanians are different people culturally and ideologically while Tanzanians are generally lazy like the coastal Kenyans and depend so much and have faith in the goverment, Kenyans on the other hand are very aggressive where it comes to business and every issue...they do not depend in the goverment nor have faith in goverment and that is why they exert pressure in the goverment for change to occur through NGOs, Private sector and other organizations such as COTU and well learned that is why Magufuli or Museveni leadership cannot succeed in Kenya because people know their constitutional rights. kenya has a devolved governance compared to Tanzania centralized regime and everyone knows the positive development that devolution has led in Kenya with cities springing up in every county and every county being opened up to development hence doing away with marginilization..this factors among others is what will make it difficult for Tanzania to surpass Kenya in the near future

 

[Mtengwa II]

Kenyans and Tanzanians are different people culturally and ideologically while Tanzanians are generally lazy like the coastal Kenyans and depend so much and have faith in the goverment, Kenyans on the other hand are very aggressive where it comes to business and every issue...they do not depend in the goverment nor have faith in goverment and that is why they exert pressure in the goverment for change to occur through NGOs, Private sector and other organizations such as COTU and well learned that is why Magufuli or Museveni leadership cannot succeed in Kenya because people know their constitutional rights. kenya has a devolved governance compared to Tanzania centralized regime and everyone knows the positive development that devolution has led in Kenya with cities springing up in every county and every county being opened up to development hence doing away with marginilization..this factors among others is what will make it difficult for Tanzania to surpass Kenya in the near future

Too long to determine the intended point! But, what kind of aggressive are you talking about? Tribalism or regionalism!!?

 

[Cicero]

Oh boy, here we go again, haya njooni na mahasebau yenu uchwara Cicero nawaita mapema tu.

Mleta mada (kennedy0000 ) hajui kwamba GDP PPP tumeshawapita.
Hiyo nominal walishasema it will take time lakini still tutawapita tu.
Being larger than you on GDP PPP terms is fine by me!

 

[Mwanzi1]

There's a drought in Kenya, growth rate still being predicted at above 5%. Al shabaab has never slowed it down to under 5.6%. Unlike Nigeria, Kenya does not depend on a single mineral, so prices cannot drastically affect. Election slows it down for 1 year.
Therefore, realistically it will never go to below certain numbers. 2038 is the minimum.. But Tanzania can't overtake Kenya before then.

But Kenya relies heavily on rain falls, without enough rain, forget about tea, coffee, long beans, flower export. And that will have "knock on effect" to the GDP.

 

[Sammuel999]

kennedy0000 hapo kwa Zero additional deposit U never know Tunaweza pata mafuta ama tunaeza develop a great technology this may shift many things sana

 

[tuusan]

2038,me kuna wtz nawafahamu wamelala usingizi hao wakiamka tu tutawah yani wakiendelea kulala kazi ipo

 

[Sammuel999]

Mleta mada (kennedy0000 ) hajui kwamba GDP PPP tumeshawapita.
Hiyo nominal walishasema it will take time lakini still tutawapita tu.
Being larger than you on GDP PPP terms is fine by me!

Yeah Juu China also has a larger ppp than USA

but USA nominal gdp is 7trn bigger than China ....next point?

 

[ZEE LA HEKIMA]

Why compare ourselves to Kenya? We want money in our pockets, food on our tables, fees for our children. GDP figures dont help anybody because all the growth is concentrated in the hands of just a few industries, a few bilionaires. Thats why the GDP is rising while poverty is rising amongst the poor

 

[kennedy0000]

Why compare ourselves to Kenya? We want money in our pockets, food on our tables, fees for our children. GDP figures dont help anybody because all the growth is concentrated in the hands of just a few industries, a few bilionaires. Thats why the GDP is rising while poverty is rising amongst the poor

Well, you've been comparing yourselves to Kenya for a while now.
GDP is like the nation's revenue per year. If it rises, there's more to go around. You can twist the narrative, but can't ignore that. As it rises, more people will continue being lifted from poverty.

 

[kennedy0000]

kennedy0000 hapo kwa Zero additional deposit U never know Tunaweza pata mafuta ama tunaeza develop a great technology this may shift many things sana

Too many ifs. But the same can also happen to Kenya. But even the fastest growing countries don't increase their GDPs by over 10% a year.

 

[MK254]

Mleta mada (kennedy0000 ) hajui kwamba GDP PPP tumeshawapita.
Hiyo nominal walishasema it will take time lakini still tutawapita tu.
Being larger than you on GDP PPP terms is fine by me!

Umeombwa mara nyngi ulete ushahidi wa kwamba mumetupta unaishia kuleta data za 2018 ambapo sio fact.

 

[kennedy0000]

But Kenya relies heavily on rain falls, without enough rain, forget about tea, coffee, long beans, flower export. And that will have "knock on effect" to the GDP.

Flower not so much. Production is still increasing even with the drought.
But even with the drought, projections are still at over 5%. It may go down 2 years, and then rise for 5 years.
If Kenya manages to do like 7% for 5 years, we'll now be looking at 2060s for Tanzania to overtake. This is assuming everything remains smooth in TZ.

 

[Depay]

Hehehee..... Done with Tz... How about Central Africa Republic??