Hizi takwimu za BoT siziamini hata kidogo

[BAK]

Tanzania economy up 7.5 pct last year - BoT

2009-02-10 10:22:59
By Guardian Reporter​

Tanzania`s economy probably grew by some 7.5 per cent last year, below a previous forecast of 7.7 per cent, the central bank said on Monday.

``Real economic growth of 7.5 per cent is likely to be achieved in line with a good performance in agriculture, as well as the strong performance ... in manufacturing, construction, and communication,`` the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) said in a Monetary Policy Statement for February.

The economy had earlier been projected to grow by 7.7 per cent in 2008, before the onset of the global credit crunch that forced a downward revision at the end of last year.

But the bank said the country had still weathered the financial crisis in the first half of its current (July 2008-June 2009) fiscal year relatively well.

``Despite the turbulent global environment, the Tanzanian economy continued to maintain solid growth during the first half of 2008/09,`` noted the bank.

Tanzania, a nation of an estimated 40 million people that is reputed for its relative stability in a volatile region, saw its economy grow by 7.1 per cent in 2007.

A June 2008 projection was that this would accelerate to 9.2 per cent in 2011.

Tanzania`s economy depends largely on mining, agriculture and tourists visiting its wildlife parks and beach resorts, which combine to make the country one of the more appealing frontier markets.

BoT said its biggest task for the rest of the fiscal year would be controlling any speculation on the fate of the country`s currency due to the prevailing global market turmoil.

The exchange rate of the national currency, the shilling, is market-driven but the central bank says it is ready to intervene to stop speculation.

It adds that, so far, no commercial banks in Tanzania had suffered a direct loss due to the global credit crunch.

According to BoT, food-driven inflation would pose a problem: Food inflation stood at 18.6 per cent in December compared with 13.6 per cent the previous month.

Food accounts for 55.9 per cent of the basket of goods used to measure annual inflation.

Overall inflation stood at 13.5 per cent in December compared with November`s 12.3 per cent, while the government targets inflation of 6.8 per cent by June this year.

SOURCE: Guardian

 

[BAK]

Mwaka jana kulikuwa na ongezeko kubwa la bei ya mafuta duniani ambalo liliathiri hata nchi tajiri. Pia ongezeko hilo lilisababisha kupanda sana kwa bei ya vyakula duniani ikiwemo nchi yetu. Kutokana na dalili za kuyumba kwa uchumi wa dunia idadi ya watalii wanaokuja nchini kwetu ilipungua sana 2008 ukilinganisha na 2007. Bado tuna mikataba ya uchimbaji dhahabu ambayo haina maslahi kwa Watanzania.

Pamoja na matatizo yote hayo lakini uchumi wetu bado ulikuwa kwa 7.5%!!!!!! Mimi naanza kuingia na wasiwasi kwamba kuna walakini mkubwa katika vigezo vinavyotumiwa na BoT kupima ukuaji wa uchumi, ama wanatumia vigezo vyenye walakini au vina kasoro kubwa katika ukusanyaji wake na hatimaye kupata matokeo ambayo hayaonyeshi hali halisi ya uchumi wetu. Itakuwa vizuri kama BoT wakiweka wazi vigezo wanavyotumia na jinsi wanavyovikusanya na computation wanazozifanya ili kufikia conclusion yao kwamba uchumi katika mwaka 2008 umekuwa kwa 7.5%, vinginevyo hizi namba za kutoka BoT ni wizi mtupu!!!!! ambao hauisaidii hata kidogo nchi yetu lazima kuwepo na transparency ili kuhakikisha hizi namba toka BoT zina ukweli wowote

 

[bm21]

Mwaka jana kulikuwa na ongezeko kubwa la bei ya mafuta duniani ambalo liliathiri hata nchi tajiri. Pia ongezeko hilo lilisababisha kupanda sana kwa bei ya vyakula duniani ikiwemo nchi yetu. Kutokana na dalili za kuyumba kwa uchumi wa dunia idadi ya watalii wanaokuja nchini kwetu ilipungua sana 2008 ukilinganisha na 2007. Bado tuna mikataba ya uchimbaji dhahabu ambayo haina maslahi kwa Watanzania.

Pamoja na matatizo yote hayo lakini uchumi wetu bado ulikuwa kwa 7.5%!!!!!! Mimi naanza kuingia na wasiwasi kwamba kuna walakini mkubwa katika vigezo vinavyotumiwa na BoT kupima ukuaji wa uchumi, ama wanatumia vigezo vyenye walakini au vina kasoro kubwa katika ukusanyaji wake na hatimaye kupata matokeo ambayo hayaonyeshi hali halisi ya uchumi wetu. Itakuwa vizuri kama BoT wakiweka wazi vigezo wanavyotumia na jinsi wanavyovikusanya na computation wanazozifanya ili kufikia conclusion yao kwamba uchumi katika mwaka 2008 umekuwa kwa 7.5%, vinginevyo hizi namba za kutoka BoT ni wizi mtupu!!!!! ambao hauisaidii hata kidogo nchi yetu lazima kuwepo na transparency ili kuhakikisha hizi namba toka BoT zina ukweli wowote

Mkuu Bubu, Tanzania sasa imekuwa ni nchi ya kisanii, riport zetu nyingi tunazipolish ziwe na mvuto pasipo kujali ukweli. Nilishawahi andika siku za nyuma hata mawizara sasa hivi yanakuwa na riport kama tatu za kitu kimoja kama mambo yanayofanywa na wahendi kwaajiri ya kukwepa kodi. Sasa nashangaa tukipolish document na ukweli watanzania wanauona kupitia hali halisi ya maisha ni kwa manufaa ya nani.

 

[BAK]

Mkuu Bubu, Tanzania sasa imekuwa ni nchi ya kisanii, riport zetu nyingi tunazipolish ziwe na mvuto pasipo kujali ukweli. Nilishawahi andika siku za nyuma hata mawizara sasa hivi yanakuwa na riport kama tatu za kitu kimoja kama mambo yanayofanywa na wahendi kwaajiri ya kukwepa kodi. Sasa nashangaa tukipolish document na ukweli watanzania wanauona kupitia hali halisi ya maisha ni kwa manufaa ya nani.

Kwa kweli inasikitisha. Tanzania si kisiwa hivyo uchumi wa dunia unapotetereka ni lazima na sisi tuathiriwe, lakini cha kushangaza uchumi wa dunia ukiwa unafanya vizuri uchumi wetu unakuwa kwa asilimia kati ya 5 na nane na uchumi wa dunia ukiwa unafanya vibaya bado uchumi wetu unakuwa kwa asilimia ile ile!!! Pamoja na kuwa tumeathirika kwa idadi ya watalii kupungua, kwa kupanda sana kwa bei ya mafuta na vyakula lakini uchumi wetu haukuathirika hata kidogo!!!! Wakati huo huo pamoja na uchumi wtu kuendelea kukuwa kwa miaka zaidi ya miaka 10 sasa kwa kati ya asilimia 5 na 8 Watanzania walio wengi hawaoni ahueni yoyote ile ya kukuwa kwa uchumi wetu!!! Hapa kuna mazingaombwe ya hali ya juu yanayofanywa na BoT.

 

[BAK]

Experts: Economic squeeze is real

2009-02-13 13:53:04
By Guardian Team

Experts in the financial sector have raised eyebrows over high-profile suggestions that the global financial crisis has no impact on the Tanzanian economy.

The experts were emphatic in separate interviews to The Guardian over the last week, that the impact on the economy is real and serious measures should be taken to address it.

They also said that Tanzania needs an open debate on the effects of the financial crisis and the way it was preparing to face it.

Just recently, the Governor of the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) and Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Mustafa Mkulo were quoted, as saying that Tanzania would feel the pinch as a result of the on-going financial turmoil in the developed nations.

Chief Executive Officer of the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) Jonathan Njau said that there was need for Tanzania, as a nation, to have open discussions on the measures it was taking to handle the crisis.

Njau was responding to a question on whether the on-going financial crisis would have a negative impact on the DSE as well as its transactions.

``In the first place I`m not in agreement with those who have been viewing the current financial crisis as having no impact on our economy. I can tell you we're going to be affected" he said.

He cited one of the effects as a reduction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), saying since their companies came to invest resources borrowed from banks, the inescapable possibility was that such investments would decline.

The national budget might be affected if the commitments made by Tanzania's bilateral donors are not fully met, resulting in failure to execute some of essential development programmes.

Donors could find it difficult to assist foreign countries while at home thousands of workers were being retrenched.

Njau said the DSE has not yet felt the direct consequence of the financial crisis as has happended at the Nairobi Stock Exchange, because of the few foreign investors at the DSE, but underlined that negative consequence were there.

As of yesterday, different companies in the developed world were announcing cutbacks of their workforce due to the financial crisis.

In his view, Tanzania needs to develop what he called `home grown initiative` specifically aiming at curbing the financial crisis and the resulting effects.

Following the crisis, other sectors which were likely to be affected included the Civil Societies - Non-Governmental organisations, whose budgets depended on massive donation from individuals and charity organizations in the developed countries.

The combination of these factors as well as reduction of remittances from Tanzanians living and working abroad, would definitely affect the local financial trend, pushing some of such effects on the Stock Markets, he said.

The on-going financial crisis is said to have been triggered by poor corporate governance which entertained among other things what experts call ``asset created off-side the balance sheet`` under pretext of promoting innovations.

The laxity in implementing and maintaining strict supervision of corporate governance by both private and public corporations in the developed countries led to violation of a core principle of finance and management.

As many countries struggle to rescue their economies, Njau said, it was surprising to see Tanzania `mute,` while knowing for sure that it was not an island and that waves of the crisis were going to hit its economy.

However, the Tanzania Investment Center (TIC) said in getting ready to face the crunch, Tanzania is taking measures to protect existing investors and promote local investments.

The plan, according to the Executive Director of Centre, Emmanuel ole Naiko is in recognition that while the effect of the financial crunch on the Tanzanian economy cannot be of large scale, it might affect the rate of new investors coming to Tanzania.

The TIC chief points out that although Tanzania\'s economy was not fully integrated in the world economy, there was a need to guard and protect existing investors.

Most of the investors coming to Tanzania are those who have known Tanzania over a long time, such as British investors, while Americans have only recently shown keen interest in investing in Tanzania.

According to ole Naiko, protecting the existing investors would be done through two programmes, one of which would include seeking investors\' views on what they perceived as prohibitive towards their business undertakings with a view to improving investment environment for them.

``With the financial crunch, it wouldn\'t be wise to expect many new investors from abroad and hence taking care for the existing ones was essential`` he said.

The second front was undertaking in-house cleaning, in which the TIC would soon meet other stakeholders, including the Treasury, Tanzania Revenue Authority, Ministry of Labour, Employment and Youth Development; and Ministry of Home Affairs-Migration department to chart out relevant issues regarding attraction of foreign investment.

Ole Naiko said the meeting would evaluate each stakeholders\' role and address the issues that investors have been complaining about in their business transactions.

Commenting on investors` complaints about Tanzania\'s taxation system, he said sometimes TRA workers used discretion and a taxation methodology which undermined principles of predictable taxation systems thereby making investors unhappy.

He also said it is important for Tanzania to meet other government stakeholders to remove hurdles that keep out investors, especially at this time when the country is receiving many enquiries about investment opportunities from the Middle East.

Because of the severe drought in the Middle East, reduction of water in the region has forced investors to start looking for other farming areas to invest in.

He said Tanzania has already received several such inquiries and that implementation of the President\'s directive for every region to set aside survey land for incoming investors must be observed.

Robert Hanan, the First Secretary and Consul at the US Embassy in Dar es Salaam commenting on the possibility that the number of Tanzanians given visas to travel to the U.S to work would decrease because of the credit crunch, said the embassy will not restrict visa admissions to the country.

``There will not be any push to turn down any visa applications due to the current economic crisis, but what we might see is that people may be less interested in going to the United States because of the crisis,`` he said.

He noted that there may be a decline in entry into the country due to the fact that \"companies may not invite a lot of people because they may not have the means to contract foreign workers.``

Last year some 5,474 multiple entry Visas into the US were issued to Tanzanian citizens. News reports recently revealed that unemployment in the US shot up to 7.2 percent with 524,000 jobs lost in December.

The German Embassy in Tanzania anticipates that the need for foreign workers by German companies may decline as they try to adjust to the global financial crisis.

``Most of the Tanzanians who go to Germany are on a visit compared to those who go to work. We at the embassy will continue to give Visas as long as the applicants are eligible.

Sector-wise, tourism and horticultural industry are the major victims of the global credit crunch in the country.

The multi-million-dollar horticultural industry, for instance, is currently confronting the worst market dilemma in 30 years, and experts say if something is not done immediately, some of the firms will collapse.

The infant industry earns the country more than USD 130 million annually and employs over 30,000 Tanzanians, though this is minimal when compared to Kenya which earns nearly USD 1.7 billion per year and employs more than 500,000 citizens.

But, of late the industry has been negatively impacted by among other factors, the global financial meltdown, over the last four months, pushing the demand and price of flowers and vegetables in the world market to the lowest level in 30 years.

From October 2008, prices on average have declined by 30- 50 percent, compared to previous years while flowers of certain varieties are currently attracting zero demand, according to the Tanzania Horticultural Association (Taha) Executive Director, Jacqueline Mkindi.

The market deterioration is chiefly attributed to the global financial crisis, Jacqueline says, adding that if the financial crunch escalates into recession, it will bring the industry to its knees, with flowers from Africa (Tanzania included) which are usually given a second or third priority finding themselves completely pushed out of the market.

The Fresh fruits and vegetable exporters are also hardest hit segment. Some of the major markets for Tanzanian vegetable products are supermarket chains in Europe such as Tesco, Sainsbury and ASDA.

``These supermarkets have now cut down their vegetable prices by more than 25 percent, leaving our vegetable producers counting huge losses,`` Mkindi noted.

The Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI) is today hosting in Dar es Salaam a major forum to discuss the impact of the on-going global financial crisis on the Tanzanian economy.

SOURCE: Guardian

 

[bm21]

Du sasa ndugu yangu Bubu, nimesoma report uliyo post hapo juu. Inanshangazi Njau peke ndie anaejua kuwa global recession itaiathiri na Tanzania na wengine wote wanaona Tanzania ipo na itakuwa salama, du inasikitisha sana. Hata hivyo hebu tushauriane ni nani hasa anaetakiwa kuanzaisha mjadala wa kupambana na recession Tanzania. Maana sijamuelewa Njau anaposema kunatakiwa kuwe na mjadala. Najua sector yake (DSE) ni muathilika namba 1. Nchi nyingi, tunaona wakuu wa nchi ndio wanakuwa mstari wa mbeli kutoa direction of course kwa kushauriana na washauri wao. Lakini ni nani hasa anatakiwa kusimamia swala hili. Nilisha wahishauri hapa siku moja kuwa wangempata Gavana wa BoT Nduru, Economist, toka Universities, na other Analysts including Politician kukawa na japo mahojiano kidogo kuone perpetcive zao hasa katika kile kipindi cha ''This Week in Perspective'' sijui kama bado kinaendelea nilikuwa nakipenda sana.

 

[Bowbow]

Huu uozo na upikaji wa Takwimu ndio kilichotusdukuma kuataka kuanzishwa kwa chombo huru cha wachumi Ili takwimu kama hizi tuweze kuzichambua kna kutoa mwelekeo huru wa hali ya uchimi hapa nchini.

WACHUMI wenzangu huu ndio wakati wa kutumia taaluma yetu jkwa manufaa ya taifa.

Jinadikishe sasa Wachumi Tanzania ama tuma email na details zako kwenda wachumi08@gmail.com ama info@wachumi.org. wachumi wote mnakaribishwa na ktakkuwa na kikao cha kwanza tarehe 22 March sehemu mtajulishwa baadae.