EAC is not yet ready for common currency

Geza Ulole said:

so what makes u prosperous if u have a GDP of US$ 31 bio. and 45.9% of ur people (WB data) living under a poverty line over a country that has US$ 23 bio. and having 37% of its people under a poverty line? going out of ur mind or bragging is at work? :lol:

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I am not braging FYI, but please would you understand what I am trying to say. Kenya may be struggling to reach 8% growth for the economy as shown by the rwandan model but that does not make The Rwandan ecomomy bigger than kenya. Yes, There are poor people in kenya I agree but still you have to know what makes an economy. I will give you a case in point Angola has a great GDP and GNI than most countries surrounding it and oil wealth, but there is a great divide of the rich and the poor making it have many poor people. that still live under abject poverty. The differnce comes when it comes to matters of wealth distribution

Guys, let's stop this nonsense of attacking the messenger. The truth of the matter is Prof Collier has been able to narrate eloquently, what many of us in here, forsee from the get go as a problem in the making. Let's not attack him solely because he is a muzungu, instead let's dwell on the merits of what he asserted. Mind you, this guy is a renoknown economist from a world class institution. Unlike other EAC's economists, prof Collier bring a first hand experience, he has witnessed the economic quagmire that has engulfed his continent. What is trying to do is to tell our politicians to slow down and start analyzing issues on three dimensions, what is wrong with that? The problem with many of us in here, we are close minded, we want to hear what we want to hear, and not what we are supposed to hear.

I couldn't agree with Prof Collier more that if a country if is not confident with the structure of enforcing national budget then it is not ready for monetary union. Using the same theory, one can also deducts that all five countries that make up EAC bloc are not ready because they don't have a structure in place to enforce their national budget. Thanks prof, for having the audacity to call it as you see it. In addition, if have a model we are trying to imitate has turned out to be failure, what makes us think that our fate will be different? ....This is what Americans call it insanity, doing the same thing and expects different results.

EAC is too serious to be left to the politicians!
Mwisho wake wanasiasa watafanya maamuzi ambayo baadae tutajayatjutia!
Tanzania tukiwa na the right viongozi on track uchumi wetu hauwezi fanana ata kwa karibu na majirani zetu.

kshaka said:

http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploa... of the Pyramid_The Middle of the Pyramid.pdf

Proportion of people living under $1.25 per day in East Africa in 2010

Tanzania - 82.4%
Burundi - 81.32%
Rwanda - 74.43%
Uganda - 51.53%
Kenya - 19.72%

:A S-coffee:

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so btn Afdb and World Bank data which one do u trust most? I strong believe there is something wrong with Afdb report considering their difference between their data and that of IFM, WB and CIA factbooks! That is a 3 contra 1 report

Geza Ulole said:

so btn Afdb and World Bank data which one do u trust most? I strong believe there is something wrong with Afdb report considering their difference between their data and that of IFM, WB and CIA factbooks! That is a 3 contra 1 report

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You're being dishonest and you know it. The World Bank data that you cited is from 2005 (7 years ago) which is probably why you didn't link it as you are usually wont to do. That's the most current data that the WB has. Here, I'll do it for you;

Kenya | Data

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population)
2005 45.9%
1997 52.3%
1994 40.3%
1992 44.8%

The most current data cited by the CIA factbook is from 2000 and is just an estimate;

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ke.html

Population below poverty line:

[TABLE="width: 638, align: left"]
[TR="class: afr_light"]
[TD="align: right"]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"] 50% (2000 est.)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]





The AfDB data, on the other hand is from 2010...and I have no reason to doubt it and you also haven't shown any reason why we should not take it as face value. If you have any substantive reason why we should dismiss the AfDB data, put it on the table.

On another note, how typically "African" of you. Instead of being happy for your fellow African that they are getting out of poverty, you just snipe enviously from the sideline...hoping to see them fail and suffer. Oh Africans!

:A S-coffee:

The most important and most ignored thing is POLITICAL WILL.
I know Tanzanians do not posess the political will for EAC. I might be wrong, but from the look of things most Tanzanians do not want the EAC.
We should start discussing this issue first, before anything.

kshaka said:

You're being dishonest and you know it. The World Bank data that you cited is from 2005 (7 years ago) which is probably why you didn't link it as you are usually wont to do. That's the most current data that the WB has. Here, I'll do it for you;

Kenya | Data

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population)
2005 45.9%
1997 52.3%
1994 40.3%
1992 44.8%

The most current data cited by the CIA factbook is from 2000 and is just an estimate;

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ke.html

Population below poverty line:

[TABLE="width: 638, align: left"]
[TR="class: afr_light"]
[TD="align: right"]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"] 50% (2000 est.)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]





The AfDB data, on the other hand is from 2010...and I have no reason to doubt it and you also haven't shown any reason why we should not take it as face value. If you have any substantive reason why we should dismiss the AfDB data, put it on the table.

On another note, how typically "African" of you. Instead of being happy for your fellow African that they are getting out of poverty, you just snipe enviously from the sideline...hoping to see them fail and suffer. Oh Africans!

:A S-coffee:

Click to expand...

if i am being dishonest ask urself has ur economy grown that much to make u think the numbers have gone down significantly? In 2005, how much did ur economy grow and in 2011 how much did ur economy grow to give a different view considering the fact that PEV disrupted ur economy and u have over 250,000 IDPs (without house to live and do economic activities) and u just had 13 mio. in hunger last year! Those data in Afdb are not to be reliable to a country that grew over 6 percent even during recession and had bumper harvest to give food to neighbors to eat during hunger!

I dont know why we the people should accept to be pulled into a deal which would never benefit all of us?

EAC was working well in the past until the wazungu conned us just because TZ was for following UJAMAA.

If we want to unite, then dont watch how the wazungus are doing it. Why cant we Africans be Unique? After all we belong to this rich, diverse and dark continent.

Geza Ulole said:

if i am being dishonest ask urself has ur economy grown that much to make u think the numbers have gone down significantly? In 2005, how much did ur economy grow and in 2011 how much did ur economy grow to give a different view considering the fact that PEV disrupted ur economy and u have over 250,000 IDPs (without house to live and do economic activities) and u just had 13 mio. in hunger last year! Those data in Afdb are not to be reliable to a country that grew over 6 percent even during recession and had bumper harvest to give food to neighbors to eat during hunger!

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As I said, i'm not going to dismiss research data just because you don't like the outcome or it's implications. If you feel they are inaccurate, give us the evidence for your stance...just because you think so is not good enough!

I concur with this Oxford Prof though i'm dis appointed with our East African Economists. They are sense less!, thoughts less, Ley people, Unschooled proffesionals. THis is because though im not an economist if somebody could ask me i could have given a straight answer that were not ready for common currency. Even Politically were not ready!!! Fun enough our leaders want us to rush into dustibin. WE CANT ACCEPT THIS!

Hardwood said:

Just a mundane idea!!! It is sad to immagine that the Oxford Professor could give comments aimed at*splitting EAC into slices instead of emphasizing unification of EAC states.

There are so many loopholes in his comments. He has failed to comment as to why Kenya and Rwanda(Agricultural and service based economies) are the most prosperous economies in EAC while resource rich economies like Tanzania and Uganda are not as prosperous!*

Besides, EAC states are not highly divergent in terms of economic development compared to states comprising European Union. Why was it possible to unite Europe, despite the existing economic disparity between*European*nations, but it is difficult to unite EAC states, despite low level of economic disparity between EAC states?

It is hard to believe that the Oxford Professor came with a clean mind to advise EAC states. There must be a hidden agenda.*

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YUO are the one with hidden agenda! "Why was it possible to unite Eurozone countries" you ask! Is it not a fact that EEC is going through a crisis and its citizens are beginning to question how and why the went in in the first place. Do you want us to cry over spilt milk ten years from now?