Abdalah Abdulrahman
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 29, 2019
- 222
- 201
Since the re-introduction of multiparty political system in Tanzania at the year 1992, Political parties have undergone fair share of ups and downs. This article will try to highlight few factors that have led to the current status of opposition parties, their strength and weaknesses so as the incumbent Government can have the incumbency advantage come 2020.
With reference to 1995 General election which was the first Multiparty General election held in October 1995.The following parties contested for Presidency and National Assembly. Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), National Convention for Constitution Reforms – Mageuzi (NCCR-Mageuzi), Civic United Front (CUF), United Democratic Party (UDP), Tanzania Labor Party (TLP),Nation Reconstruction Alliance (NRA), Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA) and many more.
In February 1995, Hon Augustine Lyatonga Mrema who was then Minister for Labor and Youth Affairs defected to NCCR-Mageuzi outfit which took no time to name him as the new chairman, and their candidate for 1995 General election. Mrema had a cult like following, which included many of Youth, low skilled people, unemployed and people who were dissatisfied by the leadership of former President Ret Hon Ali Hassan Mwinyi. Mrema was a populist who rode on the wave of indigenization (uzawa), he somehow succeeded in putting blame of one’s failure to state, thus making him a temporary stay in nation media. After a hotly contested General Election the vote distribution for Presidency and National Assembly are as shown below in table.
PRESIDENCY VOTES
S/No. CANDIDATE POLITICAL PARTY VOTES %
1 BENJAMIN MKAPA CCM 4,026,422 61.82
2 AUGUSTINE MREMA NCCR-MAGEUZI 1,808,616 27.77
3 IBRAHIM LIPUMBA C.U.F 418,973 6.43
4 JOHN CHEYO U.D.P 258,734 3.97
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
S/No. PARTY VOTES % SEATS SPECIAL WOMEN SEATS
1 CCM 3,814,206 59.22 186 28
2 NCCR-MAGEUZI 1,406,343 21.83 16 3
3 CHADEMA 396,825 6.16 3 1
4 CUF 323,432 5.02 24 4
5 UDP 213,547 3.32 3 1
As it can be seen in the above tables, the opposition did fare average in 1995 election, they could have build on that to make a sustained challenge on ruling party on the other coming election. But as I would show in later paragraphs, the sustained challenge can never be made by opposition in Tanzania due to the following factors.
1. Lack of Vision/Ideology
Any political party must have a clear vision, policy and ideology which it must hold dear. Most opposition parties have ideologies that are enshrined in their constitution but that hardly follow them, they rely on party hopping for members of rulling party who feels aggrieved by decision to cut their names on list of candidates to vie for different position which are contested in General Election. As I have previous shown the Mrema factor, the same can be said about the former premier Hon Edward Lowassa who also has a cult like following in Youth, some members of CCM, Unemployed and low skilled people.
2. Defection of Influential Members
Lately there has been insurgency of defection of opposition members to join the Magufuli bandwagon; many have given different reasons for doing so. But it all has the same tone in “kuunga mkono juhudi za Raisi Magufuli” some they have gone a bit far by claiming that had their candidate won, he wouldn’t have the same energy and guts like President Magufuli. This clearly shows that the opposition was not ready to form the Government. As its been witnessed now two of the former presidential candidates in 2015 election have joined CCM. Though a lot has been said on such moves but it doesn’t take away the fact that opposition is disorganized and clearly lack of vision is hurting them.
3. Nepotism/favoritism
This fact is usually put under the rags by the opposition. There is credible evidence on the said matter. Some party leaders prefer their spouses or girlfriends to be elected as members of national assembly on special seats. This demoralizes the grassroots activist who is working day and night to popularize the party. Women special seats are to be awarded in accordance to where the party garnered most votes, and there should be transparent method which the nominees are selected instead of being done in shrewd of mystery which leaves a lot of questions and very little answers.
4. Lack of grass root structure
Another important feature that lacks in opposition is lack of grass root party structure. If you want to win en mass, you should have a credible grassroots structure that works in tandem with the ward, district, regional, zonal and national party leadership. This will enable party to preach its policy in grass root level; this will help a lot in recruiting of new members. The ruling party has been taking advantage of such system for years, though lately they were some lapses in concentration in that area. Am sure that leaders have taken into account of that thus will rectify any shortcoming?
Above points narrate the weaknesses in opposition parties that could derail their challenge in 2020. Other factors as I will be discussing them in the next paragraphs have to do with the excellent performance of the fifth phase government of Chama Cha Mapinduzi led by Hon John Magufuli. Fifth phase government has outdone the expectations of most Tanzanians, it has put emphasis in ensuring that we become mid income economy by 2025 by putting necessary infrastructure to achieve that. In doing that President Magufuli has done the following;
• Fight against graft and corruption
Corruption is a vice that robs millions of Tanzania much needed progress; through corruption few individuals have enriched themselves and their cronies thus leaving the country in bad shape. Monies lost in corruption through inflation of tender, provision of sub standard service to the nation, tax avoidance and evasion and many more. All these have been reduced to the minimal since fifth phase has come into power. This has enabled the country to implement pledges made by President Magufuli when he asked to be voted in during 2015 campaigns. Numbers of suspects in grand corruption have been taken to court. This has increased the accountability in public sector thus making it easier for any aspiring entrepreneur to seek for business opportunity in the country.
• Strategic Investment in ATCL
Government has invested in ATCL which is national carrier, So far President Magufuli has purchased six airplanes on behest of the government. ATCL will help in bringing revenue and tourist to our country. Cynics were first to downplay the significance of aviation industry in Tanzania. With time they will be shamed for the time they took to ridicule the significance of having a working national carrier. Once direct flights from Tanzania to China, India and Middle East Countries start we will be able to attract tourist to visit Tanzania thus boost our economy.
• Construction of Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and Stiggler’s Gorge Hydro-Electric Power Dam
Fifth phase Government led by Hon JP Magufuli started construction of Standard Gauge Railway from Dar es Salaam to Mwanza which will branch to Kigoma too and construction of Hydroelectric power Dam at Stigler Gorge in Rufiji basin. All these are huge investments and vital to our economy, they and number of employment in formal and informal sector which are associated by the projects. Upon completion these projects will propel the country towards mid level income; the country will be more industrialized and reduce cost of doing business in Tanzania. This will attract Foreign direct investment to our country which will help elevate status of people in our country.
• Rehabilitation of Central Railway Line
Government has also embarked on a task of rehabilitating the central railway line which starts at Dar es salaam and goes all the way to Kigoma and Mwanza and has tributaries branching out to Tanga and Arusha. Central Line is still vital to our economy, if revitalized can help in reduction of cargo transported via road thus the roads we build can last linger without needing maintenance. If we can afford to unload and dispatch the cargos from Dar es salaam port to the destinations such as Uganda, Rwanda , Burundi, DRC and Zambia. Our port will be the preferred choice for businesses based in land locked countries which borders us.
• War against drugs
Fifth phase Government has continued the fight against drugs, Tanzania was used as a corridor in transporting the drugs coming from Asia all the way to Europe. We had porous borders in oceans and international airports. Many Tanzanians were caught peddling drugs in Hong Kong, Macau and Mainland China. All these drugs came from Tanzania. Since President Magufuli came into power, he has fight this vice with renewed vigor which has resulted to historic bust of drugs baron and disrupt the flow of drugs in local market too. Some drug lords have moved from the country and make Tanzania safe country with zero tolerance on drugs.
Those are the few but a concrete point that makes a strong case for reelection of incumbent president Hon John Pombe Magufuli. Through his leadership the country has excelled in all fronts. His style of leadership is what Tanzania was missing for a while, he is walking the walk and talking the talk. Our economy is steadily improving and value of currency keeps gaining against US dollar which shows good signs for economy recovery.
Now, the current state of opposition parties is not good, this is mainly attributed to defections of key figures from one party to the other. Since last General election the opposition has suffered loss of key personnel who propelled them to garner about 6,000,000 votes. One of them being former premier Hon Edward Lowassa, It’s factual that Hon Lowassa is among experienced and one of the most influential politician in Tanzania, he has a cult like following from people of all walks of life. His candidature helped to propel the opposition to have 114 seats in a National Assembly. His contribution to the strong showing of opposition under wing of UKAWA can not be taken lightly. Now that he has defected to CCM, the opposition will have insurmountable mountain to climb for them to pose a credible challenge to the rulling party.
Just few days ago another hotshot in opposition politics namely Maalim Seif Hamad has jumped from the party he helped found and joined ACT-Wazalendo which is led by Hon Zitto Kabwe. This trend of party hopping confuses the voters and sometime they get tired of seeing their beloved politicians hopping from one party to the other. Also ACT-wazalendo was established by former members of CHADEMA who were accused of betrayal and hence expelled from the party. For Maalim Seif to join the party that CHADEMA, which are main opposition associates it as another wing of CCM is a miscalculated step which will result to his political obvillion before election date in 2020.
As for opposition all is not lost, they have to clean their house first, have a clear view on what sort of politics they want to conduct, as it has clearly shown that activist type of politics is not what Tanzanians are expecting. So far only Hon Tundu Lissu has given an early indication that he will run for presidency on opposition platform. Tundu Lissu is a very able orator, he’s full of rhetoric’s that don’t gain traction with most Tanzania. Numerous times he’s been advocating for imperialist companies that have been milking our National wealth through inequitable distribution. They also should stop spreading fear and advocate for values which are against our esteemed norms and culture such as homosexuality.
With reference to 1995 General election which was the first Multiparty General election held in October 1995.The following parties contested for Presidency and National Assembly. Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), National Convention for Constitution Reforms – Mageuzi (NCCR-Mageuzi), Civic United Front (CUF), United Democratic Party (UDP), Tanzania Labor Party (TLP),Nation Reconstruction Alliance (NRA), Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA) and many more.
In February 1995, Hon Augustine Lyatonga Mrema who was then Minister for Labor and Youth Affairs defected to NCCR-Mageuzi outfit which took no time to name him as the new chairman, and their candidate for 1995 General election. Mrema had a cult like following, which included many of Youth, low skilled people, unemployed and people who were dissatisfied by the leadership of former President Ret Hon Ali Hassan Mwinyi. Mrema was a populist who rode on the wave of indigenization (uzawa), he somehow succeeded in putting blame of one’s failure to state, thus making him a temporary stay in nation media. After a hotly contested General Election the vote distribution for Presidency and National Assembly are as shown below in table.
PRESIDENCY VOTES
S/No. CANDIDATE POLITICAL PARTY VOTES %
1 BENJAMIN MKAPA CCM 4,026,422 61.82
2 AUGUSTINE MREMA NCCR-MAGEUZI 1,808,616 27.77
3 IBRAHIM LIPUMBA C.U.F 418,973 6.43
4 JOHN CHEYO U.D.P 258,734 3.97
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
S/No. PARTY VOTES % SEATS SPECIAL WOMEN SEATS
1 CCM 3,814,206 59.22 186 28
2 NCCR-MAGEUZI 1,406,343 21.83 16 3
3 CHADEMA 396,825 6.16 3 1
4 CUF 323,432 5.02 24 4
5 UDP 213,547 3.32 3 1
As it can be seen in the above tables, the opposition did fare average in 1995 election, they could have build on that to make a sustained challenge on ruling party on the other coming election. But as I would show in later paragraphs, the sustained challenge can never be made by opposition in Tanzania due to the following factors.
1. Lack of Vision/Ideology
Any political party must have a clear vision, policy and ideology which it must hold dear. Most opposition parties have ideologies that are enshrined in their constitution but that hardly follow them, they rely on party hopping for members of rulling party who feels aggrieved by decision to cut their names on list of candidates to vie for different position which are contested in General Election. As I have previous shown the Mrema factor, the same can be said about the former premier Hon Edward Lowassa who also has a cult like following in Youth, some members of CCM, Unemployed and low skilled people.
2. Defection of Influential Members
Lately there has been insurgency of defection of opposition members to join the Magufuli bandwagon; many have given different reasons for doing so. But it all has the same tone in “kuunga mkono juhudi za Raisi Magufuli” some they have gone a bit far by claiming that had their candidate won, he wouldn’t have the same energy and guts like President Magufuli. This clearly shows that the opposition was not ready to form the Government. As its been witnessed now two of the former presidential candidates in 2015 election have joined CCM. Though a lot has been said on such moves but it doesn’t take away the fact that opposition is disorganized and clearly lack of vision is hurting them.
3. Nepotism/favoritism
This fact is usually put under the rags by the opposition. There is credible evidence on the said matter. Some party leaders prefer their spouses or girlfriends to be elected as members of national assembly on special seats. This demoralizes the grassroots activist who is working day and night to popularize the party. Women special seats are to be awarded in accordance to where the party garnered most votes, and there should be transparent method which the nominees are selected instead of being done in shrewd of mystery which leaves a lot of questions and very little answers.
4. Lack of grass root structure
Another important feature that lacks in opposition is lack of grass root party structure. If you want to win en mass, you should have a credible grassroots structure that works in tandem with the ward, district, regional, zonal and national party leadership. This will enable party to preach its policy in grass root level; this will help a lot in recruiting of new members. The ruling party has been taking advantage of such system for years, though lately they were some lapses in concentration in that area. Am sure that leaders have taken into account of that thus will rectify any shortcoming?
Above points narrate the weaknesses in opposition parties that could derail their challenge in 2020. Other factors as I will be discussing them in the next paragraphs have to do with the excellent performance of the fifth phase government of Chama Cha Mapinduzi led by Hon John Magufuli. Fifth phase government has outdone the expectations of most Tanzanians, it has put emphasis in ensuring that we become mid income economy by 2025 by putting necessary infrastructure to achieve that. In doing that President Magufuli has done the following;
• Fight against graft and corruption
Corruption is a vice that robs millions of Tanzania much needed progress; through corruption few individuals have enriched themselves and their cronies thus leaving the country in bad shape. Monies lost in corruption through inflation of tender, provision of sub standard service to the nation, tax avoidance and evasion and many more. All these have been reduced to the minimal since fifth phase has come into power. This has enabled the country to implement pledges made by President Magufuli when he asked to be voted in during 2015 campaigns. Numbers of suspects in grand corruption have been taken to court. This has increased the accountability in public sector thus making it easier for any aspiring entrepreneur to seek for business opportunity in the country.
• Strategic Investment in ATCL
Government has invested in ATCL which is national carrier, So far President Magufuli has purchased six airplanes on behest of the government. ATCL will help in bringing revenue and tourist to our country. Cynics were first to downplay the significance of aviation industry in Tanzania. With time they will be shamed for the time they took to ridicule the significance of having a working national carrier. Once direct flights from Tanzania to China, India and Middle East Countries start we will be able to attract tourist to visit Tanzania thus boost our economy.
• Construction of Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and Stiggler’s Gorge Hydro-Electric Power Dam
Fifth phase Government led by Hon JP Magufuli started construction of Standard Gauge Railway from Dar es Salaam to Mwanza which will branch to Kigoma too and construction of Hydroelectric power Dam at Stigler Gorge in Rufiji basin. All these are huge investments and vital to our economy, they and number of employment in formal and informal sector which are associated by the projects. Upon completion these projects will propel the country towards mid level income; the country will be more industrialized and reduce cost of doing business in Tanzania. This will attract Foreign direct investment to our country which will help elevate status of people in our country.
• Rehabilitation of Central Railway Line
Government has also embarked on a task of rehabilitating the central railway line which starts at Dar es salaam and goes all the way to Kigoma and Mwanza and has tributaries branching out to Tanga and Arusha. Central Line is still vital to our economy, if revitalized can help in reduction of cargo transported via road thus the roads we build can last linger without needing maintenance. If we can afford to unload and dispatch the cargos from Dar es salaam port to the destinations such as Uganda, Rwanda , Burundi, DRC and Zambia. Our port will be the preferred choice for businesses based in land locked countries which borders us.
• War against drugs
Fifth phase Government has continued the fight against drugs, Tanzania was used as a corridor in transporting the drugs coming from Asia all the way to Europe. We had porous borders in oceans and international airports. Many Tanzanians were caught peddling drugs in Hong Kong, Macau and Mainland China. All these drugs came from Tanzania. Since President Magufuli came into power, he has fight this vice with renewed vigor which has resulted to historic bust of drugs baron and disrupt the flow of drugs in local market too. Some drug lords have moved from the country and make Tanzania safe country with zero tolerance on drugs.
Those are the few but a concrete point that makes a strong case for reelection of incumbent president Hon John Pombe Magufuli. Through his leadership the country has excelled in all fronts. His style of leadership is what Tanzania was missing for a while, he is walking the walk and talking the talk. Our economy is steadily improving and value of currency keeps gaining against US dollar which shows good signs for economy recovery.
Now, the current state of opposition parties is not good, this is mainly attributed to defections of key figures from one party to the other. Since last General election the opposition has suffered loss of key personnel who propelled them to garner about 6,000,000 votes. One of them being former premier Hon Edward Lowassa, It’s factual that Hon Lowassa is among experienced and one of the most influential politician in Tanzania, he has a cult like following from people of all walks of life. His candidature helped to propel the opposition to have 114 seats in a National Assembly. His contribution to the strong showing of opposition under wing of UKAWA can not be taken lightly. Now that he has defected to CCM, the opposition will have insurmountable mountain to climb for them to pose a credible challenge to the rulling party.
Just few days ago another hotshot in opposition politics namely Maalim Seif Hamad has jumped from the party he helped found and joined ACT-Wazalendo which is led by Hon Zitto Kabwe. This trend of party hopping confuses the voters and sometime they get tired of seeing their beloved politicians hopping from one party to the other. Also ACT-wazalendo was established by former members of CHADEMA who were accused of betrayal and hence expelled from the party. For Maalim Seif to join the party that CHADEMA, which are main opposition associates it as another wing of CCM is a miscalculated step which will result to his political obvillion before election date in 2020.
As for opposition all is not lost, they have to clean their house first, have a clear view on what sort of politics they want to conduct, as it has clearly shown that activist type of politics is not what Tanzanians are expecting. So far only Hon Tundu Lissu has given an early indication that he will run for presidency on opposition platform. Tundu Lissu is a very able orator, he’s full of rhetoric’s that don’t gain traction with most Tanzania. Numerous times he’s been advocating for imperialist companies that have been milking our National wealth through inequitable distribution. They also should stop spreading fear and advocate for values which are against our esteemed norms and culture such as homosexuality.
