Geza Ulole
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 31, 2009
- 63,449
- 88,775
Amina's loss follows script of Kenya's waning influence
Saturday February 4 2017
email print
Amina Mohamed, the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Trade, at her luncheon at InterContinental Nairobi Hotel on February 1, 2017. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP
In Summary
By VINCENT ACHUKA
More by this Author
As debate continues on whether Uganda stood with Kenya in the race for African Union Commission chairperson, the tenor is shifting to whether the loss was due to bad strategy or was a reality check on the influence of East Africa’s economic powerhouse.
The loss by Amina Mohamed, the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Trade, in the race to become the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) was a bitter pill to swallow after months of a highly publicised campaign, but the fear that Kenya may not have marshalled together all its neighbours has heightened speculation that the country might not be as powerful as it thinks it is.
This fear came to the open when Ms Mohamed told the Nation after her defeat on Tuesday to Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat that she wants Kenya’s neighbours re-evaluated for "abandoning" her during the election in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
“Are we seen as a friend or a threat?” she asked. “Looks can be very deceptive. I think we are very honest people, so it is difficult to deal with deceptive people. But going forward, it is a good lesson to learn.”
On Saturday, as President Uhuru Kenyatta announced the return of French car manufacturer Peugeot, he expressed Kenya’s yearning to dominate the region once again.
'MANUFACTURING SECTOR'
“The World Bank has said we are the third most improved country globally for the past two years, and the best in Africa because our manufacturing sector has grown, signalling our return to dominance,” he said at State House, Nairobi.
But although Ms Amina’s loss exposed the frailty of the East African Community (EAC), analysts say it won’t sour Kenya’s relationship with neighbouring countries. Instead, the country has to re-evaluate its foreign policy.
“It depends on how we take the loss but a question we should be asking Uganda is why they changed their minds in the fifth round of voting. It appears our competitors were more persuasive than us,” Prof Macharia Munene, who teaches international relations at the United States International University - Africa, told the Nation.
Signs of Kenya’s waning influence in the region have been popping up in the form of border disputes, diplomatic embarrassments and back stabbings over trade or infrastructure deals that would otherwise have been solved diplomatically.
On Thursday, the International Court of Justice ruled that a dispute between Kenya and Somalia over a maritime border should proceed to full trial. Kenya is also involved in another border dispute with Uganda over Migingo Island in Lake Victoria.
PREFERRED ROUTE
Last year, Kenya was left with egg on its face on two occasions after Uganda snubbed the country in favour of Tanzania as the preferred route for its oil pipeline, just days after the two nations had signed a deal.
Kenya then signed another deal with Ethiopia for a pipeline that was to be linked to the stalled Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia Transport (Lapsset) corridor. But before the ink had dried, Ethiopia announced it had signed a deal to pass its pipeline through Djibouti instead.
Soon after, Rwanda announced that its standard gauge railway (SGR) would pass through Tanzania to link it to the Indian Ocean, despite making an earlier commitment as part of the “coalition of the willing”.
Despite these developments, Prof Munene says Kenya is still the region’s super power. “Regardless of what is being said, Uganda is dependent on us for its lifeline, and Tanzania, which is trying to establish itself as an alternative centre of power, will take years for that to ever happen,” he says.
Owing to its good infrastructure, geographical position and better manufacturing industry, Kenya has since the breakup of the original EAC exercised hegemonic power over its neighbours.
OWN GOODS
But recent stagnation of its manufacturing industry and a push by its neighbours to manufacture their own goods to reduce their reliance on imports appears to be taking a toll on Kenya. Tanzania, Uganda and lately Rwanda have over the past few years been reducing their imports from Kenya.
Since 2011, the value of Kenya’s exports to the EAC has declined by nine per cent, from Sh137 billion to Sh126 billion in 2015, according to numbers from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
Cumulative figures for last year will be out in May when the bureau releases the national economic survey. But preliminary data circulated two weeks ago for the first three quarters of last year show the downward trend is set to continue.
The data shows Kenya’s exports declined by a massive 20 per cent in the first 10 months of 2016, from Sh52 billion to 41.8 billion. Tanzania’s exports remained flat but Rwanda reduced its imports by 7.5 per cent. This is after it switched to Tanzania in line with its preferred fuel importation route due to concerns on adulteration.
But what should be worrying policy makers is the fact that over half of Kenya’s exports go to the EAC. The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) puts the figure at 54 per cent, saying that more than 250 companies export their goods to the region.
WEAK POLICIES
The association, however, blames weak regulatory policies that have allowed an influx of cheap Chinese products, some of dubious quality, making Kenyan products uncompetitive, especially in Uganda.
“We have a structure that supports imports and not local manufacturing, where finished products and raw materials attract the same VAT rates. The taxation policy should ensure that where finished products are exempt, inputs towards manufacturing similar products locally are also exempt or are at zero tax rate,” says KAM chairperson Flora Mutahi.
“Our fiscal policy and taxation regime should promote industrialisation and growth of the manufacturing sector as this impacts on competitiveness,” she says.
But Industrialisation CS Adan Mohamed says the main problem facing Kenya’s industries is the avalanche of second-hand goods.
“These used products are our industries’ single biggest threat. We must face the problem right now and in a calculated manner,” he says.
“We have to work hard to see that we are able to produce new and affordable products. Then we can forcefully deal with second-hand products,” he says.
Amina' loss follows script of Kenya's waning influence
Saturday February 4 2017
email print
Amina Mohamed, the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Trade, at her luncheon at InterContinental Nairobi Hotel on February 1, 2017. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP
In Summary
- The loss by Amina Mohamed, the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Trade, in the election to become the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) was a bitter pill to swallow after months of a highly publicised campaign, but the fear that Kenya may not have marshalled together all its neighbours has heightened speculation that the country might not be as powerful as it thinks it is.
- This fear came to the open when Ms Mohamed told the Nation after her defeat on Tuesday to Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat that she wanted Kenya’s neighbours re-evaluated for abandoning her during the election in Addis Ababa.
By VINCENT ACHUKA
More by this Author
As debate continues on whether Uganda stood with Kenya in the race for African Union Commission chairperson, the tenor is shifting to whether the loss was due to bad strategy or was a reality check on the influence of East Africa’s economic powerhouse.
The loss by Amina Mohamed, the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Trade, in the race to become the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) was a bitter pill to swallow after months of a highly publicised campaign, but the fear that Kenya may not have marshalled together all its neighbours has heightened speculation that the country might not be as powerful as it thinks it is.
This fear came to the open when Ms Mohamed told the Nation after her defeat on Tuesday to Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat that she wants Kenya’s neighbours re-evaluated for "abandoning" her during the election in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
“Are we seen as a friend or a threat?” she asked. “Looks can be very deceptive. I think we are very honest people, so it is difficult to deal with deceptive people. But going forward, it is a good lesson to learn.”
On Saturday, as President Uhuru Kenyatta announced the return of French car manufacturer Peugeot, he expressed Kenya’s yearning to dominate the region once again.
'MANUFACTURING SECTOR'
“The World Bank has said we are the third most improved country globally for the past two years, and the best in Africa because our manufacturing sector has grown, signalling our return to dominance,” he said at State House, Nairobi.
But although Ms Amina’s loss exposed the frailty of the East African Community (EAC), analysts say it won’t sour Kenya’s relationship with neighbouring countries. Instead, the country has to re-evaluate its foreign policy.
“It depends on how we take the loss but a question we should be asking Uganda is why they changed their minds in the fifth round of voting. It appears our competitors were more persuasive than us,” Prof Macharia Munene, who teaches international relations at the United States International University - Africa, told the Nation.
Signs of Kenya’s waning influence in the region have been popping up in the form of border disputes, diplomatic embarrassments and back stabbings over trade or infrastructure deals that would otherwise have been solved diplomatically.
On Thursday, the International Court of Justice ruled that a dispute between Kenya and Somalia over a maritime border should proceed to full trial. Kenya is also involved in another border dispute with Uganda over Migingo Island in Lake Victoria.
PREFERRED ROUTE
Last year, Kenya was left with egg on its face on two occasions after Uganda snubbed the country in favour of Tanzania as the preferred route for its oil pipeline, just days after the two nations had signed a deal.
Kenya then signed another deal with Ethiopia for a pipeline that was to be linked to the stalled Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia Transport (Lapsset) corridor. But before the ink had dried, Ethiopia announced it had signed a deal to pass its pipeline through Djibouti instead.
Soon after, Rwanda announced that its standard gauge railway (SGR) would pass through Tanzania to link it to the Indian Ocean, despite making an earlier commitment as part of the “coalition of the willing”.
Despite these developments, Prof Munene says Kenya is still the region’s super power. “Regardless of what is being said, Uganda is dependent on us for its lifeline, and Tanzania, which is trying to establish itself as an alternative centre of power, will take years for that to ever happen,” he says.
Owing to its good infrastructure, geographical position and better manufacturing industry, Kenya has since the breakup of the original EAC exercised hegemonic power over its neighbours.
OWN GOODS
But recent stagnation of its manufacturing industry and a push by its neighbours to manufacture their own goods to reduce their reliance on imports appears to be taking a toll on Kenya. Tanzania, Uganda and lately Rwanda have over the past few years been reducing their imports from Kenya.
Since 2011, the value of Kenya’s exports to the EAC has declined by nine per cent, from Sh137 billion to Sh126 billion in 2015, according to numbers from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
Cumulative figures for last year will be out in May when the bureau releases the national economic survey. But preliminary data circulated two weeks ago for the first three quarters of last year show the downward trend is set to continue.
The data shows Kenya’s exports declined by a massive 20 per cent in the first 10 months of 2016, from Sh52 billion to 41.8 billion. Tanzania’s exports remained flat but Rwanda reduced its imports by 7.5 per cent. This is after it switched to Tanzania in line with its preferred fuel importation route due to concerns on adulteration.
But what should be worrying policy makers is the fact that over half of Kenya’s exports go to the EAC. The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) puts the figure at 54 per cent, saying that more than 250 companies export their goods to the region.
WEAK POLICIES
The association, however, blames weak regulatory policies that have allowed an influx of cheap Chinese products, some of dubious quality, making Kenyan products uncompetitive, especially in Uganda.
“We have a structure that supports imports and not local manufacturing, where finished products and raw materials attract the same VAT rates. The taxation policy should ensure that where finished products are exempt, inputs towards manufacturing similar products locally are also exempt or are at zero tax rate,” says KAM chairperson Flora Mutahi.
“Our fiscal policy and taxation regime should promote industrialisation and growth of the manufacturing sector as this impacts on competitiveness,” she says.
But Industrialisation CS Adan Mohamed says the main problem facing Kenya’s industries is the avalanche of second-hand goods.
“These used products are our industries’ single biggest threat. We must face the problem right now and in a calculated manner,” he says.
“We have to work hard to see that we are able to produce new and affordable products. Then we can forcefully deal with second-hand products,” he says.
Amina' loss follows script of Kenya's waning influence
