Bomba la Gesi Mtwara:A "20 -Year Grace Period" ya Mkopo wa Exim Bank-China ni "Changa la Macho?!".

[Pascal Mayalla]

Wanabodi, kwa hisani ya mwana jf mwenzetu,

Pasco kama unavyofahamu ukiachilia mikopo inayotolewa na Benki chini ya dirisha la Sharia (ambapo akaunti ya akina haipati riba, na mikopo inayotolewa haitozwi riba), mikopo mingine yote hutozwa riba. Viwango vya riba huwa determined na factors nyingi ikiwa ni pamoja na maelewano baina ya mkopaji na mkopeshaji.

Mara nyingi riba kwa miradi mikubwa ya maendeleo hutozwa riba ya kuanzia asilimia 2.5 hadi asilimia 7. Asilimia 80 ya Consessional loan iliyotolewa na China riba yake ni below hizo standard rate, yaani asilmia moja tu. kwa tafsiri nyingine ni kwamba mkopo wa aina hiyo ni almost kama msaada. Malipo yake yataanza kifanyika miaka 20 ijayo. Kwa maneno mengine deni litaanza kulipwa mwaka 2032.

Maelezo kamili ya tafsiri ya consessional loan angalia hapo chini:

Chinese Government Concessional Loan (hereafter referred as Concessional Loan) refers to the medium
long-term, low interest rate credit extended by China Eximbank under the designation of the Chinese
Government with the nature of official assistance.

For more details nenda: 报错页面

Nimefanikiwa kutembelea huko na kuiona sura ya masharti ya kukopa kutoka Exim Bank ya Uchina, japo mimi sio mtaalam wa uchumi, ila there is something fishy!.

Unapewa mkopo mkubwa mnene wa masharti nafuu ya ajabu with grace period ya miaka 20 ndipo uanze kulipa tena kwa riba ndogo ajabu ya asilimia 1% tuu kwa mwaka ili ushindwe kulipa, waichukue gesi yako na kulitaifisha bomba lao, waliendeshe mpaka watakapo recover fedha zao.

Niliposoma masharti ya awali, nikakuta mfano huu mkopo wetu wa Dola bilioni 1.2 utaanza kulipwa mwaka 2032!, ila katika hii miaka 20 ya grace period, kila mwaka tunatakiwa kulipa ile interest ya 1% ya dola bilioni 1.2 ni dola milioni 1.2 kwa mwaka!. Kwa ile miaka 20 tuu ya grace period, tutakuwa tumelipa riba ya dola milioni 24!. Hapo ndio kwanza bado hatujaanza kulipa ile principal ya mkopo huo!.

Wachumi na wana mahesabu hebu angalieni hii kitu na mtusaidie kutufafanulia siye tusio wachumi and correct me if I'm wrong!, kumbe hicho kinachodaiwa kuitwa ni grace period ya miaka 20 huku tukilipa interest, sio grace period lolote, sii chochote kwa sababu tunailipia interest kila mwaka!.

My Take:
Lengo sio kuibeza serikali tena mimi ni miongoni mwa wale ma supporter gesi ije Dar!, bali tunahitaji tuu uwazi Jee this time kwenye mkataba wa bomba la gesi, tumeingia mkataba wa aina gani?. Tutaulipa kwa miaka mingapi?, Ukipiga thamani ya mkopo ambao ni dola bilioni 1.2, kwa interest ya asilimia 1% kuanzia mwaka 2032, jee tutalipa deni kwa miaka mingapi?. Jee jumla tutakuwa tumelipa kiasi gani?!.

Tunaelezwa uchumi wa gesi ni uchumi mkubwa, kama ni uchumi mkubwa then tunaweza kulipa deni lote la US $ 1.2 ndani ya miaka 5 tuu ya uchumi wa gesi, hivyo interest itakuwa low, kwa Wachina hawa watulazimishe tusubiri hadi miaka 20 ipite, lakini katika miaka 20 hiyo wanatulipisha interest ya 1% kila mwaka?. Kwenye hiyo miaka 20 ya grace period na hadi deni lao lilipwe, hilo bomba, wana control wao!. Kwa uchumi mkubwa wa gesi, hii 20 years grace period ya nini?.

Paskali
Update.
Nimepata majibu ya baadhi ya maswali yangu na kujiridhisha hizi concession loans toka Exim Bank of China are the best

Kama unalipa interest ya 1% kwa principle ya miaka 30 nyuma ni sawa na kupewa pesa bure! kwa sababu miaka 30 ijayo $1.2B itakuwa na thamani kubwa sana kuliko sasa hivi.,

As far as interest is concerned this is a very good deal. very good. Hakuna commercial bank itakupa pesa kwa terms hizo duniani., hiyo interest ya 1% tena bila grace period wanalipa Tripple A credit rated countries, sio sie masikini kunuka.
Hapa ni sawa na tunatumia pesa za watu BURE.


nadhani rationale ni kuwa in 20 years bomba litakuwa fully utilised hence, justifying kuanza kulipa principle amount.

50% discounted by inflation and depreciation is no longer 50% ni kazi sana kuelewa kama huelewi depreciation inavyofanya kazi. as long as your interest is below inflation, YOU are not PAYING anything.., financially YOU are being paid.,

ngoja nikupe mfano rahisi.

kama ulikuwa na 100 interest ni 1% ina maana unadaiwa 101.
lakini kama inflation ni 5% ina maana kuwa in real terms unalipa 101-5% kwa hiyo unadaiwa 96 tu. sasa badala ya deni kuongezeka limepungua.

Hapo bado hujaweka depreciation ya USD. Ndio maana mabenki ya kitanzania rate yao huwa Rate of BOT+Inflation+depreciation+ Their costs= >15%. benki ya kitanzania ikikukupoesha chini ya Inflation+Depreciatio+BOT rate wanaingia hasara.., ndio maana rate ya mikopo ya ndani haiwezi kamwe kupungua asilimia 10 kwa hali ya kawaida. na ndio maana serikali haishauriwi kukopa ndani. rate kubwa mno. rahisi kukopa nje ambako rate ya inflation+depreciation iko chini zaidi.

Nadhani TUMEELEWANA.

nadhani grace period inaonesha jinsi gani uhalisia wa uchumi wa gesi ni wa muda mrefu. na sio kitu cha upesi upesi. Mfano LNG plant plan ni kuanza kujenga 2023(earliest), tayari ni miaka 10+ toka siku tumekuwa na bomba, Ukiweka miaka mingine 5 ya ujenzi na operations tayari ni 15 years toka tumejenga.

Projects za infrastructure ni za muda mrefu sana. TUENDELEE kuomba mungu CHINA ipo, inatusaidi kwa financing za aina hii. kwani hazitakuwa wazi milele.

Biashara yoyote inatakiwa ilipe mkopo kutokana na kipato cha uzalishaji, sasa hivi bomba liko utilized 6% tu(kutoka ripoti ya CAG). hivyo basi naamini kabisa hawajafika Break Even.

Sijui Break Even analysis yao ni baada ya muda gani na ni subject to utilization ya asilimia ngapi, lakini if i were to put conservative estimates it should be no less than 15 years and no less than 70% utilization. Hapo ndio bomba litaweza kulipa mkopo wa benki bila kutumia pesa za kodi.

Obviously kama uchumi ungekuwa unapaa, na bomba likawa full utilized mapema ingekuwa poa zaidi.,

Looking back miaka 20 tuliyokubaliana na wachina umekuwa uamuzi sahihi na sio miaka 5 kwa sababu ingekuwa inaexpire mwakani na bado bomba liko 6% utilized. Ingekuwa disaster kubwa financially kama tusingekuwa na grace period ya 20 years.

 

[Bavaria]

Kwahiyo inamaana kwamba baada ya hiyo miaka 20 tutaendelea kulipa hiyo riba?

 

[Return Of Undertaker]

Kwahiyo inamaana kwamba baada ya hiyo miaka 20 tutaendelea kulipa hiyo riba?

Ndo manaake

 

[omujubi]

asante Pasco kwa kuja kihivi

 

[JUST]

Ndugu Pasco hiyo ni sahihi kabisa na ni kawaida ya mikopo yenye kupewa Grace period. katika kipindi hicho hauitajiki kurudisha makato ya mwezi bali ile riba ambayo ungepaswa kurudisha pamoja na rejesho la mwezi. hali hiyo husaidia benki kuendesha gharama za kudeal na mkopo mpaka utakapoanza kurejesha mkopo husika na riba iliyobaki. na dhiada ni kwamba aina hii ya mikopo hutolewa mahususi pale mkopeshwaji hawezi kuanza rejesho mapema kutokana na investiment ya kusudi la kukopa amabayo return yake ni baada ya kukamilika kwa investiment husika.

 

[Bujibuji Simba Nyamaume]

Nchi hiii huliwa na wageni, mafisadi wanagawa bure rasilimali zetu

 

[Money Stunna]

The Cost Of Being A Beggar,A Beggars Has No Choice


Beggars are greatly subjected to humiliation. They have to bear the taunts of people. People call them names. They do not feel small in extending their bowl. Once the habit of begging is formed, it becomes their psyche. Some beggars, even sustaining their economic condition, do not give up their habit of begging. Thus begging becomes their second nature.

Nations that develop the habit of begging in the form of foreign aid to raise developmental level are always at the mercy of their donor. Such nations do not achieve glory. They, however, have pledged their self-esteem for availing the foreign aid. The donor starts taking hold of his affairs. The donor eventually becomes a self appointed adviser for that nation. The intrusions and interferences of the donor in his personal matters irk the recipient at many times. Thus this process procreates new master-slave relationship in which there is no dignity for the slave. It evinces that no nation can climb up the stairs of progress and prosperity unless it undergoes the phenomenal uplift of self esteem and self reliance.

 

[Lambardi]

Hivi hao Bank hawana hata huruma na kutuma wataalam neutral wapitie hiyo cost?maana wame inflate na mzigo utakuja kwa wananchi walalhoi na walipa kodi wachache....wao mafisadi wameneemeka na familia zao na kututambia mitaani kwa utajiri uliokithiri!

 

[Chimbuvu]

Figure zako haziko sawa mkuu.kama unatumia tarakimu tumia tarakimu,kama unatumia maneno tumia maneno.
1% ya dola bill 1.2 ni usd 12mill kwa mwaka, na kwa miaka 24 ni dola million 240 kama interest.
Hiyo ni sawa kama mmekopa kwa uzalishaji na hata bank zipo hivyo kama ukichukua mkopo mfano real estate wa millioni 200 kwa miaka 20 at the end unakuja lipa total zaidi ya 380mill na kadri muda ukiongeza na return inaongezeka.
Dawa ya hii ni kufanya deni liwe la muda mfupi ndio mtalipia interest kidogo lakini hatuwezi fanya hivyo kwa sababu hatujajua biashara ya gas itaendaje.
Kwa hiyo hii ni sawa mkuu kwa sababu hata hapo mlipokopa hizo ela zina kazi na ukichukua lazima urudishe interest.

 

[SMU]

..Niliposoma masharti ya awali, nikakuta mfano huu mkopo wetu wa Dola bilioni 1.2 utaanza kulipwa mwaka 2032!, ila katika hii miaka 20 ya grace period, kila mwaka tunatakiwa kulipa ile interest ya 01% ya dola bilioni 1.2 ni dola milioni 1,200 kwa mwaka!. Kwa ile miaka 20 tuu ya grace period, tutakuwa tumelipa riba ya dola milioni 24,000,000 hapo ndio bado hatujaanza kulipa deni!..

Mkuu, hebu tuwekee hizo namba vizuri ili tuweze kuchangia mjadala huu kwa ufasaha zaidi.

 

[Idimi]

Kuna document moja ya msingi sana kuhusu maslahi ya China katika Afrika. Ina somo zuri sana la namna ya kuichukulia kwa tahadhari misaada ya China kwa Afrika. Mwenye nafasi na aisome ni nzuri sana, naiweka hapa kama attachment

 

[Mkeshaji]

Pasco bana, kigeugeu kweli!

Kwa taarifa yako hayo ni mojawapo ya mambo ambayo watu wa Mtwara wanahoji na kuyapigania. Bahati mbaya ulishindwa kuwaelewa kwa sababu wao hawana uwezo wa kuyaweka kitaalamu namna hiyo.

Siku nyingine kabla hujampinga mtu jaribu kuweka madai yake katika lugha yako ili ujue mtu huyo anataka nini badala ya kumbeza kwa sababu tu ameongea katika lugha ambayo "si ya kitaalamu".

Hapo kwenye mahela hebu jaribu kufafanua kidogo:
....dola milioni 1,200 kwa mwaka...
....tutakuwa tumelipa riba ya dola milioni 24,000,000.....

Hebu fafanua kidogo hapo umemaanisha nini.

 

[Sangarara]

Interest ni ndogo sana, lakini kwa nini tuanze kulipa mkopo baada ya 20 years? inamaana payback period ya hiyo investment ni twenty years or more? Sidhani kama investment za kwenye energy industry zina payback period ndefu namna hiyo, wataalamu wa fedha walioshiriki kwenye kukubaliana terms of payment wanapaswa kutujuza relevance ya hizo terms?

 

[Patriote]

Ndugu Pasco hiyo ni sahihi kabisa na ni kawaida ya mikopo yenye kupewa Grace period. katika kipindi hicho hauitajiki kurudisha makato ya mwezi bali ile riba ambayo ungepaswa kurudisha pamoja na rejesho la mwezi. hali hiyo husaidia benki kuendesha gharama za kudeal na mkopo mpaka utakapoanza kurejesha mkopo husika na riba iliyobaki. na dhiada ni kwamba aina hii ya mikopo hutolewa mahususi pale mkopeshwaji hawezi kuanza rejesho mapema kutokana na investiment ya kusudi la kukopa amabayo return yake ni baada ya kukamilika kwa investiment husika.

Ina maana katika investment ya bomba tunategemea mradi huo utengemae lini na return on investment ianze kuonekana lini??after 20 years??? Huoni hapa ndo tunapojiumiza wenyewe??Why should it take such a long time?? Kama hela inakuja then yote inakuwa directed kwenye mradi husika, kwann tukae miaka 20?? Tatizo letu ni kukopa kwa ajili ya bomba la gesi, then hela ikifika, tunaanza kuitumia kwenye safari za Rais na kulipana mishahara na kufacilitate vikao.


After all is it worth kujenga bomba tu kwa mihela yote hiyo?? Trilion 1.8? Is it really worth?? Hiyo hela ingeshindwa kunnua mtambo wa kufua umeme na kujenga grid mpya ya taifa na kusambaza umeme huko kusin? No wonder tunaburuzwa hivi kwenye ujenzi wa hilo bomba, kumbe kuna hela ndefu hivi???Ujenzi wa hili bomba inabidi tuutazame kwa microscopic eyes. Tutalizwa tu mana tunaelekea kwenye uchaguzi wa 2015.

 

[Ndahani]

Deni la Taifa linaendelea kukua kwa nguvu, kasi na ari mpya.I hope we get the actual value for money in these projects going on around.

 

[Zero One Two]

Unategeme Mchina awekeze Tanzania ili ainufaishe Tanzania? Lah! Hasha anacho vuna huku anapeleka kwao ili akainufaishe china na watu wake na sio Tanzania. Sie si tunajidai wajinga

 

[Manyi]

Figure zako haziko sawa mkuu.kama unatumia tarakimu tumia tarakimu,kama unatumia maneno tumia maneno.
1% ya dola bill 1.2 ni usd 12mill kwa mwaka, na kwa miaka 24 ni dola million 240 kama interest.
Hiyo ni sawa kama mmekopa kwa uzalishaji na hata bank zipo hivyo kama ukichukua mkopo mfano real estate wa millioni 200 kwa miaka 20 at the end unakuja lipa total zaidi ya 380mill na kadri muda ukiongeza na return inaongezeka.
Dawa ya hii ni kufanya deni liwe la muda mfupi ndio mtalipia interest kidogo lakini hatuwezi fanya hivyo kwa sababu hatujajua biashara ya gas itaendaje.
Kwa hiyo hii ni sawa mkuu kwa sababu hata hapo mlipokopa hizo ela zina kazi na ukichukua lazima urudishe interest.

Mkuu Chimbuvu, na wewe unaweza usiwe sahihi katika hii kokoteo la riba. Kama hiyo riba imekuwa pegged at a straight line basis then itakuwa sawa! Lakini kama ni reducing balance basi ujue hiyo riba haitakuwa sawa, nenda kwa excel (spread sheet solutions, insert loan amortization schedule) then unashusha vitu uone!

 

[Manyi]

Kuna document moja ya msingi sana kuhusu maslahi ya China katika Afrika. Ina somo zuri sana la namna ya kuichukulia kwa tahadhari misaada ya China kwa Afrika. Mwenye nafasi na aisome ni nzuri sana, naiweka hapa kama attachment

Mkuu, hii inatisha, nimeona ni-copy hizi paragraphs..

"China's involvement could threaten this African renaissance. Growing Chinese loans to Africa, especially at high commercial rates, could threaten billions in recent forgiveness by the World Bank and IMF's Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, since China also loans to these nations.

If China uses aid tied to investment to win major oil and gas deals, it could convince other emerging powers in Africa, like India, to follow suit, potentially undermining governance and sparking conflict for resources. Chinese arms sales continue to fuel conflict in Africa;

China publishes no information about its arms transfers overseas, and a recent Amnesty International report found 17 percent of small arms collected by peacekeepers in the Congo were of Chinese design. "

Na hii;
"Chinese investment could contribute to unchecked environmental destruction and poor labor standards, since Chinese firms have little experience with green policies and unions at home, and some African nations have powerful union movements. In Gabon, illegal timber exports to China comprise roughly 70 percent of all timber exports.

In Zambia, workers in a Chinese-run mine have erupted in violent protest against safety standards and low wages, which they believe led to an accident last year in which 49 miners died.

In the recent Zambian election, opposition candidate Michael Sata played on this anger, accusing Chinese companies of exploiting local workers. Though Sata lost, his supporters then rioted in the Zambian capital, targeting Chinese businesses."

 

[Idimi]

Pasco bana, kigeugeu kweli!

Kwa taarifa yako hayo ni mojawapo ya mambo ambayo watu wa Mtwara wanahoji na kuyapigania. Bahati mbaya ulishindwa kuwaelewa kwa sababu wao hawana uwezo wa kuyaweka kitaalamu namna hiyo.

Siku nyingine kabla hujampinga mtu jaribu kuweka madai yake katika lugha yako ili ujue mtu huyo anataka nini badala ya kumbeza kwa sababu tu ameongea katika lugha ambayo "si ya kitaalamu".

Hapo kwenye mahela hebu jaribu kufafanua kidogo:
....dola milioni 1,200 kwa mwaka...
....tutakuwa tumelipa riba ya dola milioni 24,000,000.....

Hebu fafanua kidogo hapo umemaanisha nini.

Umeona eeh?
Jamaa mbovu sana kwenye namba

 

[Idimi]

Amavubi, usisahau hii pia!

Chinese investment could contribute to unchecked environmental destruction and poor labor standards, since Chinese firms have little experience with green policies and unions at home, and some African nations have powerful union movements. In Gabon, illegal timberexports to China comprise roughly 70 percent of all timber exports.

Kule wilayani Chunya mkoani Mbeya, Wachina walifunga mtambo wa kuchimba dhahabu kwenye mto na kuziba mtiririko wa mto. Gazeti la Raia Mwema liliandika makala kadhaa kulaani hali hii, hadi serikali ikachukua hatua kuufunga mgodi ule. Misitu ya asili kule Lindi na Mtwara pia inaishi mikononi mwa hawa hawa wanaotandaza bomba kwa sasa.