The Rise of the Anti-Establishment

GadoTz

JF-Expert Member
Nov 20, 2014
350
569
With the US election campaign season in full swing since the beginning of the year, a topic often discussed has been the “Establishment” and the rise of candidates who are outside the Establishment on both sides – Donald Trump on the Republican side and Bernie Sanders on the Democrats’ side. Both men were not members of their respective parties until recently when they decided to run. But what is the Establishment? I am no political analyst and will not attempt to find the official definition; instead I will give my understanding of it with a Tanzanian link. Establishment can be viewed as all that links into the ecosystem that is in charge of the political and economic functions of a nation. In the US, it is those sitting in the branches of government and civil service including the legislative (regardless of political parties), executive branch, the judiciary and so on. It also extends to the heads of large businesses (dubbed ‘Wall Street’ in the US) who are at the helm of the economy of a nation. In Tanzania we often refer to this as the “system”and we can add into this mix the 4th pillar i.e. media and the civil society as well.



The anti-Establishment sentiment is clearly on the rise in the US but it is also in many ways on the rise in Tanzania. The so-called Establishment in Tanzania is strongly linked to the ruling party CCM which has been in power since independence first in the form of TANU and ASP and later united into CCM. Clearly one cannot speak about the Establishment in Tanzania without taking into account CCM which ruled singularly until the 90’s and still remains heavily linked with the government including the fact that the President of the United Republic is the Chair of the Party. Given rising anti-establishment sentiments, it is not surprising that in the past election, CCM saw its share of votes decline. However this is where the narrative took a new twist in Tanzania.



The candidates for presidency from the two major parties at first glance would have been categorized as follows: CCM – the Establishment candidate VS CDM / UKAWA – the anti-Establishment candidate. Yet this is not what happened. In the internal primaries of CCM, the most favored candidate of the establishment – Edward Lowassa – was jostled out by a small group of the top leadership. In turn the presumed favorite of the top leadership and rival of Lowassa – Bernard Membe – was voted out by Lowassa loyalists and instead a lesser known, inconspicuous John Magufuli was elected. And when I say – lesser known Magufuli, let it be clear that all foreign media and governments as well as many in the private sector were running around to find any information about him. And information in the public domain had been extremely sparse. This is because despite his previous popularity when he had headed various ministries, little was known about Magufuli outside his job. He was not known to hold long stump speeches, be accessible to the media or meet with various interests groups and lobbyists etc. He was an outsider despite being part of the Establishment (and arguably remains one in many ways).



Then came the twist of Edward Lowassa moving to the opposition and becoming their candidate. The opposition ‘sold’ this radical swap as being advantageous because Lowassa was expected to bring the Establishment with himself – the money and business interests backing him, high level officials in government who were on his side and even CCM heavyweights who all had backed him openly during the primaries. And this is where the anti-Establishment attribute shifted from the opposition to Magufuli; who maintained and strengthened it by distancing himself from CCM as much as possible throughout the campaign. To the extent of emphasizing that the ‘Magufuli government’ will do A,B,C; not the CCM government. On the other hand, the opposition was busy lining up any CCM heavyweight switching over including Kingunge Ng’ombale Mwiru a figurehead of CCM, and another former Prime Minister Fredrick Sumaye; thus strengthening its pro-establishment credentials. There was also a show of money and power during the rallies of the opposition, with constant use of helicopters, big crowds and entertainment. Of course, CCM matched each show of force, but this was not really new to the voters. What had been different was Magufuli personally not using helicopters during the campaign and travelling by car; an earmark of a low key, low budget campaign.



After election, one would have expected Magufuli “to drop the act” and get comfortable with the Establishment as many within the party, government and the business community had expected. Much to everyone’s surprise, the newly sworn in Magufuli continued the anti-Establishment narrative, being ‘unpresidential’ by cleaning the streets of Dar-es-Salaam, curbing foreign trips, directing money from MPs cocktail to buying hospital beds. This anti-Establishment behavior has earned him respect and praise in Tanzania as well as in Africa and around the world as everyone is asking: who is this new president who doesn’t seem to have any regard for formalities and procedures and is rather focused on pragmatic solutions and results?



President Magufuli remains little known. Gaining access to him has proven difficult even to those members of the Establishment who had been used to coursing the corridors of the State House. So the only glimpse we can get of Magufuli’s thinking process, vision or approach is via the rare speeches he has given since taking office. On these occasions, like the recent one he gave during Law Day on February 5th 2016, we get unrehearsed speeches, which are arguably controversial. Like this recent speech, where some critics have said is un-presidential, un-statesman-like and even down right impeachable. This may be considered a fair assessment from the perspective of conventional presidential speeches, but these and such, in fact all, criticisms do not seem to have much effect on the citizenry who continue to support and defend, aggressively, the President.



President Magufuli has also very cleverly addressed his critics in this speech saying explicitly “I am neither mad, nor am I dictator, but it gets to a stage that you need to close your eyes and make tough decisions due to the extent to which government officials have ruined this country. [own emphasis]. My sacrifice in serving Tanzanians is to serve them so well that when I get to Heaven I can be made leader of Angels”. Many may skim past this statement in a 46 minutes long speech, but this is crucial: it gives a rare glimpse into two things. One, Magufuli remains firmly anti-Establishment despite being the head of Government. Second, Magufuli seems to be convinced that he is on a mission entrusted to him by God.



It is too early to judge whether this is only a tactical ploy or the true self of President Magufuli. What is clear is that the Establishment (including ruling and opposition parties, the legislative, judiciary, media, civil society and part of the civil service) is clearly unhappy. Yet Magufuli remains highly popular with the public at large who seems fed up with the Establishment and its cozy self-serving alliances and entanglements. Magufuli’s anti-Establishment attitude and actions for now remain his biggest strength. However in the long run, can he run the country as an outsider without finding common ground with the Establishment? Difficult to imagine. Unless he is planning to take on the extraordinary task of entirely revamping the Establishment, a first in our history since the introduction of democracy and free market economy.


Credit : Maria Sarungi


cc Pasco Kiranga chige Nguruvi3 The Boss Mzee Mwanakijiji EMT Kichuguu Mkandara
 
Magufuli will fail miserably....
you can never be an activist ...with certain cause and at the same time trying to lead...
You cant fight the same establishment that promotes you..
look at Obama....He was an anti establishment once...
 
Your conceptualisation of "establishment vs anti a establishment is too narrow and single minded. Gorging the terms "establishment and anti-establishment" from Western democracy and applying to Tanzania politics without putting them into context is the grave mistake. In Western democracy all government institutions are free from party influence. So the person/candidate is anti-establishment not because his or she is the "new" but he is outside or periphery figure in government and party hierarchy.

In Tanzania politics there is no such distinction. The ruling party is a supreme. Its policy and not national policy which is implemented. The party has final say, the member had to follow. While in USA we talk about person in African we talk about party. The " establishment party there fore can not give birth to its antithesis (the anti-establishment) since the former had direct control over the latter. While all progressive circles appreciate the efforts made by our leaders we should be very keen when we try to make academic analysis.
 
1. I like the argument - shifting of establishment to opposition.

2. The e establishment needed to put in an "unestablishment" candidate for it to survive. It's 'creative destruction'.

3. JPM is sending strong message to the 'establishment' that he is in charge. It's a brave move considering he's an outsider.

4. And this shall be the case in the subsequent elections. Those who think we will go back to Egypt, forget!
 
GadoTz,
Thanks for invitation though am not clear yet what I'd discuss. However, let me point out few things:
  • First of all, though many people do, on my side I don't believe Bernard Membe was JK's favorite but Membe made the public to believe it. Predicting what JK was about to do had been one of the public failure including from intellectual community. In those old days we were made to believe JK's favorite for 2015 General Election was Lowassa! After Richmond scandal the public was shifted to Asha-Rose Migiro as JK's favorite with others citing very stupid arguments. After Asharose Migiro we shifted to Membe. When Judge Lubuva assumed NEC Chairman seat some people got back again to Lowassa as JK's favorite under the ground that Lubuva is Lowassa's inlaw so JK was preparing favorable condition for his "best friend" Lowassa! In those old days, at least before CCM's 2012 internal election, for very known reasons, I believed Lowassa to be JK's favorite to run the office but I didn't believe at all about Membe or even Migiro. JK was always UNPREDICTABLE but the online world pretended to know JK inside out but we didn't know him! But looking at JK's leadership at least in the last two years, I can undoubtedly say that JK wanted Magufuli to run the office and that, nothing happened by chance or by means of good luck-- all were planed an JK was under control. JK made lots of domestic tour with Magufuli than with any other minister in the country. This's was enough to expose him in public! His ministry was the most favored ministry in terms of budget! But even during CCM's Candidate recruitment last year, everything seemed to be planned to let Magufuli to stand out of other competitors.
  • What is the position of the Establishment under Magufuli's leadership? I agree with the writer and he's no choice because that's the only way for Magufuli to lead the country peaceful. I don't believe if Magufuli is capable of leading the country while there're internal pressures from people seeking the same seat with massive and aggressive preparation for candidacy before the time. So, I am very sure Mtandao will be contained but to contain CCM; I doubt! CCM is a big "beast" which can never be overthrown, contained or controlled by one person! Only internal mob movement with strong backup can do.
  • Magufuli's Leadership as Tanzanian President: Am I okay with him? To some extent, YES but largely NO! I hate leading with the media and, in fact, I am result oriented guy. I don't care how you do it-- I NEED RESULTS, Positive Results. I like the way he acts towards failed civil and public servants leaders but I'll never blind myself to believe finally, we got the guy who'll never entertain failure! Putting his supporters' political blah blah, it's to early to conclude! Probably people hate Bernard Membe and they didn't digest his point when he said "It's easy for Magufuli to fire them because he didn't appoint them." Membe didn't mean Magufuli is firing the people only because were appointed by JK but what he meant is sometime difficult to fire someone you ever worked with. Who doesn't agree with this is either s/he had never been in a management position and see how difficult firing or s/he's just one of those who're willing to say anything! I have no doubt JK was too weak in this area but I'll also conclude Magufuli is strong when he starts to discipline people with whom they drink coffee together! You can appoint the Regional Administrative Secretary who will remain in power for 5+ years without ever met him/her face to face. You can easily fire this guy because you don't know him! But wait when your favorite minister do the same blunder-- unless for the public known blunder which you know you must act otherwise no one will understand you! When Mkapa assumed the office people used to say "the guy has no friend, and so and so...!" Everyone knows what happened when Mkapa started to get friends! Magufuli is not an exceptional! His Friends are on the way no matter how anti-social he can be!
  • Future Economy Under Magufuli: I can see better macroeconomic improvement at least in the first year but I am scared of the microeconomics side which, in fact, it's actual people's economy. Sometimes, I repeat with confidence, sometime stupid things in the system need to be ignored for the sake of microeconomics sector. Anyone who doesn't know what the economy is can abuse this fact but that's the truth. But all in all, for me it's still too early to judge Magufuli. You can only judge him and make conclusion only if you're his strong supporter so that you can conclude he's the best president ever happened in the world history as many have already done or if you're his strong antagonist so that you can conclude he'll be the worst president ever happened in the history! I am in between and I still don't see how worst he is but I don't also see if he's already the best president while he's only 3 out of possible 120 months-- 2.5%. Watoto wa mjini wanasema "pata pesa tuijue tabia yako...!" Magufuli keshapata "pesa" lakini bado ni mapema kusema "hawezi kuwa mlevi" kwa sababu bado hafahamu sawasawa wapi unapiga pombe huku totoz za ukweli zinaku-petipeti! Bado Hajafahamu sawasawa wapi kuna nyama choma classic-- bado hajafahamu sawa sawa kwamba si kila massage parlor is for massaging.
 
Magufuli is a charlatan. A country bumpkin - perhaps even a well meaning country bumpkin, but a country bumpkin nevertheless- out of his depth.
 
Magufuli is a bonafide member of the establishment, by any definition or standard

He has served three governments consecutively with no record of ‘anti-establishment’

The fact that he is not in the CCM hierarchy does not exonerate him from wrongdoing or failures

In public eyes JPM is a hero because his predecessor failed the nation miserably
Part of public adulation and excitement we see now is attributed by the fact that JK is gone !gone

The accolades by anti-establishments are nothing but a trick to pacify JP while pondering the better way to deal with him now and in the future
Unlike other crooks, the establishment are tactical and blessed with patience

We’ve every reason to believe that nothing has changed.
JP has few testimony in his 100 days in the office, unfortunate it's same old story. Think about this

1 JPM gave 14 days for tax evaders(first group) to pay their dues. Last week JP put the onus to judiciary to ‘sentence’ the second group of evaders to garner a trillion.
Why double standard on the same offense?

The first group belong to the establishment and associates, JP wouldn't take a chance to chastise or touch the nerve. In the street, bamboozled Tz are out and about with tumbua majipu lyrics! Poor tz

2 Failure to resolve the political impasse in Island is another testimony that JPM is reading the CCM play book with passion, and that, he is incapacitated to confront the the Big wheel inside the party

3 JP has 'confiscate' the power of August house by 'encroaching' his people and now assume the responsibility of allocating fund .
Lately, Magu is ' trading with judiciary' i.e the legal rights vs tax collection

With Hapakazi mantra synonymous to 'kukurupuka' he will hit the snag soon
 
GadoTz,
Thanks for invitation though am not clear yet what I'd discuss. However, let me point out few things:
  • First of all, though many people do, on my side I don't believe Bernard Membe was JK's favorite but Membe made the public to believe it. Predicting what JK was about to do had been one of the public failure including from intellectual community. In those old days we were made to believe JK's favorite for 2015 General Election was Lowassa! After Richmond scandal the public was shifted to Asha-Rose Migiro as JK's favorite with others citing very stupid arguments. After Asharose Migiro we shifted to Membe. When Judge Lubuva assumed NEC Chairman seat some people got back again to Lowassa as JK's favorite under the ground that Lubuva is Lowassa's inlaw so JK was preparing favorable condition for his "best friend" Lowassa! In those old days, at least before CCM's 2012 internal election, for very known reasons, I believed Lowassa to be JK's favorite to run the office but I didn't believe at all about Membe or even Migiro. JK was always UNPREDICTABLE but the online world pretended to know JK inside out but we didn't know him! But looking at JK's leadership at least in the last two years, I can undoubtedly say that JK wanted Magufuli to run the office and that, nothing happened by chance or by means of good luck-- all were planed an JK was under control. JK made lots of domestic tour with Magufuli than with any other minister in the country. This's was enough to expose him in public! His ministry was the most favored ministry in terms of budget! But even during CCM's Candidate recruitment last year, everything seemed to be planned to let Magufuli to stand out of other competitors.
  • What is the position of the Establishment under Magufuli's leadership? I agree with the writer and he's no choice because that's the only way for Magufuli to lead the country peaceful. I don't believe if Magufuli is capable of leading the country while there're internal pressures from people seeking the same seat with massive and aggressive preparation for candidacy before the time. So, I am very sure Mtandao will be contained but to contain CCM; I doubt! CCM is a big "beast" which can never be overthrown, contained or controlled by one person! Only internal mob movement with strong backup can do.
  • Magufuli's Leadership as Tanzanian President: Am I okay with him? To some extent, YES but largely NO! I hate leading with the media and, in fact, I am result oriented guy. I don't care how you do it-- I NEED RESULTS, Positive Results. I like the way he acts towards failed civil and public servants leaders but I'll never blind myself to believe finally, we got the guy who'll never entertain failure! Putting his supporters' political blah blah, it's to early to conclude! Probably people hate Bernard Membe and they didn't digest his point when he said "It's easy for Magufuli to fire them because he didn't appoint them." Membe didn't mean Magufuli is firing the people only because were appointed by JK but what he meant is sometime difficult to fire someone you ever worked with. Who doesn't agree with this is either s/he had never been in a management position and see how difficult firing or s/he's just one of those who're willing to say anything! I have no doubt JK was too weak in this area but I'll also conclude Magufuli is strong when he starts to discipline people with whom they drink coffee together! You can appoint the Regional Administrative Secretary who will remain in power for 5+ years without ever met him/her face to face. You can easily fire this guy because you don't know him! But wait when your favorite minister do the same blunder-- unless for the public known blunder which you know you must act otherwise no one will understand you! When Mkapa assumed the office people used to say "the guy has no friend, and so and so...!" Everyone knows what happened when Mkapa started to get friends! Magufuli is not an exceptional! His Friends are on the way no matter how anti-social he can be!
  • Future Economy Under Magufuli: I can see better macroeconomic improvement at least in the first year but I am scared of the microeconomics side which, in fact, it's actual people's economy. Sometimes, I repeat with confidence, sometime stupid things in the system need to be ignored for the sake of microeconomics sector. Anyone who doesn't know what the economy is can abuse this fact but that's the truth. But all in all, for me it's still too early to judge Magufuli. You can only judge him and make conclusion only if you're his strong supporter so that you can conclude he's the best president ever happened in the world history as many have already done or if you're his strong antagonist so that you can conclude he'll be the worst president ever happened in the history! I am in between and I still don't see how worst he is but I don't also see if he's already the best president while he's only 3 out of possible 120 months-- 2.5%. Watoto wa mjini wanasema "pata pesa tuijue tabia yako...!" Magufuli keshapata "pesa" lakini bado ni mapema kusema "hawezi kuwa mlevi" kwa sababu bado hafahamu sawasawa wapi unapiga pombe huku totoz za ukweli zinaku-petipeti! Bado Hajafahamu sawasawa wapi kuna nyama choma classic-- bado hajafahamu sawa sawa kwamba si kila massage parlor is for massaging.


Very critical analysis...Kudos mkuu
 
The candidates for presidency from the two major parties at first glance would have been categorized as follows: CCM – the Establishment candidate VS CDM / UKAWA – the anti-Establishment candidate. Yet this is not what happened. In the internal primaries of CCM, the most favored candidate of the establishment – Edward Lowassa – was jostled out by a small group of the top leadership. In turn the presumed favorite of the top leadership and rival of Lowassa – Bernard Membe – was voted out by Lowassa loyalists and instead a lesser known, inconspicuous John Magufuli was elected. And when I say – lesser known Magufuli, let it be clear that all foreign media and governments as well as many in the private sector were running around to find any information about him. And information in the public domain had been extremely sparse. This is because despite his previous popularity when he had headed various ministries, little was known about Magufuli outside his job. He was not known to hold long stump speeches, be accessible to the media or meet with various interests groups and lobbyists etc. He was an outsider despite being part of the Establishment (and arguably remains one in many ways).
Despite the vagueness of the definition when you speak of establishment you are not talking about every tom, dick and harry to be part of the elite group. The red is what constitute an establishment in Tanzania politics whereby a few elites can short-list 42 candidates into remaining five for reasons known by them to fit with the party agenda and that of a nation for that matter.

There is a difference with western establishment those ones are a combination of political elites and wealthy individual (private donors or kingmakers) the importance of the latter group is to provide necessary financial backing to the candidate during the campaigns and winning over other influential party members to support their candidate.

In comparison a similar thing happened in Tanzania during the 2005 election when the establishment was outsmarted by canny politician who had invested heavily financially to ensure the victory is theirs; during the last election the lessons were learned as JK put it "safari hii tulikuwa tumejipanga na kuhakikisha mtu wetu akwami" thus the remaining five choices were based on the tactics in the end Magufuli will prevail by understanding the voting behaviours of their Caucasus.
 
What an article! The American politics borrowing from Tanzania. Nevertheless, i disgree on a notion that anti- establishment is on its rise on this era. The history has number of world class leaders who were not on the establishment lineup. Magufuli is not the first neither Trump or Sandras will be American's first President to come from outside the establishment. There had been a plenty of them.
Considering the zeal of Mr Magufuli to excel in his presidency, most of us regard it as a ray of light at the end of a tunnel. However, i share similar worries as JK 'the tax evaders shall continue with their illicitness'. The issue is can Magufuli as an individual fight them? The response is obviously Yes! And what is the future of Tanzania after Magufuli's term? No one can tell at least for now. But any reasonable man can agree with me that there is still a vacuum. I can not see any zeal to establish strong institutions to control the country. This is will lead to underground struggle among those aspiring to succeed him. Only those who will gain Magufuli's favour shall get nourished. On the other hand, the disfavoured ones will tumbuliwa. For instance, for a couple of days, social media users are divided over minister's sms. Some say it was real from Mhongo and that he should go while others claim the sms might be a scam not from Mhongo. If we had at least strong anti corruption department this issue would be probed to determine Mhongo's interest on the issue. However, everything is left up to the president. As per yesterday's speech, the President is ready to cast another vote of trying to Mhongo. So no probe. This may good for both of them but also dangerous. It dangerous cause it gives a clue on the path to hammer him, through his untachables!
 
The author compares the incomparable! While the two scenarios (US and Tz) are totally matcheless, the idea of "Anti-Establishment" is overhyped in both situations. It is more of political rhetoric than it is voters' preference and therefore it can't be considered to have any political leverage. US has never had a president who is not an army general, a senator or a governor (from the Establishment) since 1933. Voters are more interested in candidates' political affiliation/ideological leaning and leadership record. And it is easier to get such details of candidates from the Establishment than from the "anti-Establishment". As for Tanzania, both Lowassa and Magufuli are unarguably from the Establishment. But one might ask: "What is Magufuli's ideological leaning? And, what economic school of thought does he belong to?" Answers to these questions will shed light on whether his approach is in conformity with his political/social beliefs. But JPM seems neither intelligent, rational nor strategic.
 
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