President Kikwete to get fewer votes, says report

[Selous]

By The Citizen Team

President Jakaya Kikwete's anticipate run for a second term in the October General Election, will see him garner fewer votes compared to the emphatic win in 2005, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said.

According to research conducted by EIU in February and released on Thursday, support for President Kikwete will be reduced because many Tanzanians are not happy with the performance of his government.

However, the report said Mr Kikwete will remain popular despite the expected drop in votes from the over 80 per cent garnered when he first won the seat.

"CCM still wants President Kikwete to be its sole presidential candidate for 2010 General Election, where he is expected to win with fewer votes because of lost confidence to his government by Tanzanian voters," said the report.

It continued to say that Mr Kikwete will remain popular during the remaining period of his first term despite the fact that the nation is heavily troubled by economic slow down, grand corruption and high inflation.

The report cautioned that there is a likelihood of President Kikwete not being nominated as CCM's flag bearer for the 2010 General Election if he steps up the fight against corruption where most of the suspects are the party's prominent members.

"There are limited chances for President Kikwete to be nominated as CCM flag bearer if he intensifies war against corruption and drags the party's big wigs to court," said the EIU with experience of over 60 years in research.

According to EIU, the war against corruption appears to be denounced by politicians and intellectuals that is why no one has chosen to come out in the open against it, the report hopes that someone in that group might surface after the 2010 elections.

The report attributes the fight and divisions which have marred CCM in recent days, to the fight against corruption.

The report continues to say that CCM is in election fever that has seen Mr Kikwete tour several parts of the country to convince voters that he was capable of solving their problems and fulfill his promise for better life for all.

In what has been cited as a strategy to boost his popularity, the report believes that President Kikwete will reshuffle his cabinet days before the 2010 General Election.

According to the research, the move will help him to bring new faces in government leadership whom he will cooperate with towards the election time.

The EIU has also revealed that President Kikwete has sidelined the worry of many people over the country's economic performance.

Source: The Citizen.

I do listening on these investigation or research.

 

[Herbalist Dr MziziMkavu]

Exuper Kachenje na Salim Said
TAASISI ya Economist Intelligence United imetoa taarifa ya utafiti inayoonyesha kuwa kura atakazopata Jakaya Kikwete kwenye uchaguzi wa mwaka huu zitapungua na kuonya kuwa iwapo rais ataendeleza vita dhidi ya ufisadi anaweza asiteuliwe na CCM kutetea urais.

Kikwete, ambaye alipitishwa na CCM kugombea urais katika jaribio lake la pili baada ya kutoteuliwa mwaka 1995, aliibuka na ushindi mkubwa baada ya kuzoa kura 9,123,952 ambazo ni sawa na asilimia 80 ya kura zote, lakini tafiti ambazo zimekuwa zikifanywa na taasisi mbalimbali kama Synovate na Redet zimeonyesha kuwa umaarufu wa rais huyo unazidi kuporomoka.

Na licha ya vyama vya upinzani kuonekana kujiepusha kupambana na waziri huyo wa zamani wa mambo ya nje na ushirikiano wa kimataifa, utafiti huo wa IEU unaonyesha kuwa kura kwa Rais Kikwete zitapungua kutokana na Watanzania kukatishwa tamaa na utendaji wa serikali yake.

"Idadi ya kura atakazopata zinatarajiwa kuwa chini ya asilimia 80 ya kura ambazo alipata katika uchaguzi wa mwaka 2005. Hii inatokana na wananchi kukata tamaa," imeeleza taarifa ya utafiti huo yenye kurasa 24.

Hata hivyo, utafiti umeeleza kuwa mbali na ushindi huo kiduchu, Rais Kikwete atabakia kuwa mtu maarufu kwenye utawala wake wa serikali ya awamu ya nne kama ripoti nyingine za utafiti wa Synovate na Redet zilivyoonyesha.

"CCM bado inataka Rais Kikwete awe mgombea pekee wa urais katika uchaguzi mkuu wa mwaka 2010. Kikwete anatarajiwa kushinda ingawa kwa idadi ndogo ya kura kutokana na wapiga kura kuonyesha kukata tamaa," inaeleza sehemu ya taarifa ya matokeo yab utafiti huo.

"Kikwete ataendelea kuwa maarufu katika kipindi kilichobaki cha awamu yake ya kwanza ya uongozi, licha ya taifa kukabiliwa na mdororo wa kiuchumi, matukio makubwa ya ufisadi na kukua kwa mfumuko wa bei za bidhaa."

Lakini taasisi hiyo yenye uzoefu wa miaka 60 katika masuala ya tafiti imeeleza kuwa pia kuna uwezekano wa Rais JK kutoteuliwa tena kugombea nafasi hiyo endapo ataendeleza vita ya ufisadi ambao watuhumiwa wengi ni wanachama wa CCM.

"... kuna nafasi kidogo kwa Kikwete kupitishwa kuwa mgombea urais kupitia CCM iwapo ataimarisha na kuendeleza vita dhidi ya ufisadi na kuwaburuza vigogo wa CCM mahakamani," inasema ripoti hiyo.

Kwa mujibu wa taasisi hiyo vita ya ufisadi inaonekana kususiwa na wanasiasa na wasomi ndio maana hadi sasa hakuna hata mmoja aliyejidhihirisha kupambana na ufisadi na kama kutajitokeza mtu, atafanya hivyo baada ya uchaguzi mkuu.

“Vita hiyo imesababisha mpasuko mkubwa ndani ya Chama Cha Mapinduzi CCM,” inasema ripoti hiyo ya kwanza kuliangalia suala la ufisadi kwa kuhusisha na mustakabali wa mteule wa urais wa chama hicho tawala.

Tangu mwaka 2006, vita ya ufisadi imekuwa ikifanywa ndani na nje ya Bunge la Jamhuri ya Muungano hasa baada ya kuibuka kwa sakata la utoaji zabuni ya uzalishaji umeme wa dharura kwa kampuni ya Richmond Development LLC.

Tayari mawaziri wawili wa zamani na katibu mkuu mmoja wamefikishwa mahakamani wakishtakiwa kwa makosa ya kutumia vibaya madaraka yao na kulisababishia taifa hasara,

huku mlolongo wa wafanyabiashara na watumishi wa Benki Kuu (BoT) wakishtakiwa kwa tuhuma za kula njama na kuiibia benki hiyo mabilioni ya fedha zilizowekwa kwenye Akaunti ya Malipo ya Madeni ya Nje (EPA).

Hata hivyo, hadi sasa watuhumiwa wakuu kwenye wizi huo hawajafikishwa mahakamani huku wengine wakiepuka mkono wa sheria baada ya Rais Kikwete kutoa unafuu kwa kueleza kuwa wale ambao wangerejesha fedha hizo kabla ya Novemba mosi mwaka juzi, wasingeshtakiwa.

Hata hivyo, ndani ya CCM vita hiyo inaonekana kuwa dhaifu kutokana na watuhumiwa wa ufisadi kuwa na nguvu zaidi.

Vyombo vya habari viliripoti mwaka jana kuwa spika wa Bunge, Samuel Sitta, ambaye amekuwa akionekana mmoja wa wapambanaji, alinusurika kutimuliwa kwenye chama akidaiwa kuruhusu mijadala inayokidhalilisha chama na serikali yake.

Utafiti huo poia umebaini kuwa CCM na mwenyekiti wake Jakaya Kikwete wamekumbwa na homa ya uchaguzi, hali inayowafanya wahahe kila sehemu kuwashawishi wapigakura.

“CCM imekumbwa na homa ya uchaguzi ndiyo sababu inayomfanya Kikwete kuhaha huku na kule kushawishi wapigakura kuwa yeye ndiye mgombea pekee atakayeweza kutatua kero zao na kukamilisha ahadi yake ya maisha bora (kwa kila Mtanzania),” EIU inasema katika taarifa hiyo.

Katika kile kilichoelezwa kuwa mbinu ya kuendelea kujijengea umaarufu, ripoti hiyo imeeleza kuwa Rais Kikwete anaweza kupangua safu ya baraza la mawaziri kabla ya uchaguzi mkuu kufanyika.

Kwa mujibu wa utafiti huo, hatua hiyo itamsaidia kuweka sura mpya ya uongozi ambao atakuwa nao bega kwa bega hadi wakati wa uchaguzi.

Taasisi hiyo imebainisha kuwa Rais Kikwete ameipa mgongo hofu ya wananchi kuwa uchumi wa nchi unayumba, huku akitumia muda mwingi kutafuta umaarufu wa kisiasa.

Hata hivyo, utafiti huo unaonyesha kuwa Rais Kikwete na serikali yake wamekuwa wakijitahidi kuwajibika kuwekeza katika miundombinu, kuboresha uchumi mdogo kwa lengo la kukuza uchumi wa taifa.

EIU imemsifu Rais Kikwete binafsi kwamba ni kiongozi mwajibikaji kisiasa kwa viwango vya utawala wa Tanzania, ingawa serikali yake ina kiwango kidogo cha kujiamini kipindi hiki cha kuelekea uchaguzi mkuu.

Kuhusu vyama vya upinzani, EIU imesema kuwa ufanisi mdogo wa vyama hivyo utaisaidia serikali iliyo madarakani kupata mwanya wa kushinda kwa urahisi katika uchaguzi mkuu ujao na kutoa mfano wa kuanguka kwa vyama hivyo kwenye uchaguzi wa serikali za mitaa mwaka uliopita.

Lakini EIU imeweka bayana kuwa vyama vya upinzani vinaweza kupanga kususia uchaguzi mkuu, lakini kutokana na hali ilivyo havionekani kuwa vitaweza kutumia mbinu hiyo.

Kuhusu kufikiwa kwa maridhiano ya Zanzibar, EIU imesema yatakuwa na ufanisi iwapo CCM itaweka mgombea anayekubali mabadiliko na kutokwamisha marekebisho ya katiba ya Zanzibar.
Imetabiri kwamba machafuko yatatokea visiwani humo wakati wa uchaguzi mkuu, ingawa hayatafikia kiwango cha mwaka 2000 na 2005, ikiwa ulinzi hautaimarishwa.

Kuhusu mtazamo wa uchumi wa Tanzania kisiasa, EIU imesema kwa mwaka wa 2010 uchumi utakua kwa asilimia 6 na kufikia asilimia 7 kwa mwaka 2011.
http://www.mwananchi.co.tz/newsrids.asp?id=18493

 

[Luteni]

REDET, Synovate, IEU, Shekhe Yahya na.......

 

[damn]

Doe it means wizi wa kura utadhibitiwa mwaka huu ili asishinde kwa kishindo kama 2005?

 

[Tangawizi]

Hii imekuwa namna mpya ya wasomi kula hela. Hivi kazi ya hawa wasomi wa mambo ya jamii ni kufanya survey tu ya jinsi uchaguzi utakavyofanyika? Ipo kazi. Wasomi wa nchi hii hawana msaada wowote wa maana. Nikutafuta namna ya kula na kupata umaarufu tu.
Atleast Kenya kuna mama mmoja Prof amewahi kupewa tuzo la mazingira. Huku kwetu wana mazingira, wahandisi, madaktari na wanasiasa wote wanakuwa wana siasa.