President John P. Magufuli's next 1,600days: From Bulldozer to Mastercraftsman?

[Informer]

By Aidan Eyakuze

President John Pombe Magufuli has surprised and delighted many people in Tanzania and beyond, by some of the actions he has taken in his first few months as president. Together with his Prime Minister, Kassim Majaliwa, the President swept through the port and tax authorities, uncovering widespread corruption and unpaid taxes, leaving a trail of more than 60 sacked and suspended senior officials behind them.

The president has clamped down hard on unnecessary public expenditure, dramatically reducing foreign travel, out-of-office workshops and meetings. The Tsh 4.0 billion saved from cancelling official national Independence Day celebrations on December 9, 2015 was spent widening a Dar road from Morocco to Mwenge that I now thoroughly enjoy every day. His “bulldozer” nickname resonates very well. Getting to grips with corruption and tax evasion is central to the good governance agenda. So does holding public servants accountable for their performance and demanding efficient use of public funds.

Allow me to digress. As a foresight practitioner, I spend many of my waking hours imagining the future of society in Tanzania and beyond. I devour books on metaphysics and monetary policy, consume all manner of broadcast media, explore, with the help of my daughters, a variety of new gadgets, and join many on- and off-line conversations with maverick thought-leaders. I constantly scan the horizon for powerful trends, tiny clues and early signs of deep change. My instinct for self-preservation leads me to monitor any new risks that we collectively face as Tanzanians. I then imagine a variety of plausible futures and use them to mentally rehearse a range of possible responses and outcomes.

The Picture of Now

I have been doing some trend monitoring and horizon scanning since November 5, 2015 when President Magufuli took the oath of office. As the first seven months of his government come to a close, I am detecting some early warning indicators about his administration’s approach to governing and its apparent nervousness about openness, transparency and citizen participation – all of which are pillars of the strong, vibrant people-centred and prosperous democracy that Tanzanians want by 2025.

The most visible early warning indicator is the administration’s engagement with the media. One previously suspended newspaper, The EastAfrican, was allowed to start publishing again in the country, but another, Mawio, has been permanently banned, using legislation that did not give the paper a chance to defend itself in court. Secondly, government has stopped the live radio and television broadcasts from parliament, effectively shielding the people’s representatives from public scrutiny as they debate their voters’ issues. Third, a long-awaited genuine public consultation on new laws to regulate the media seems to have stalled. These moves militate against citizens participating in their own government. They risk pivoting public servants’ accountability away from citizens and towards their bosses, and stifling official transparency. How do I reconcile President Magufuli’s work against corruption and for efficiency with an apparent suspicion of a more open civic space? What might the next 1,600 days bring? I see three possibilities.

1. “Father knows best”

First, it could be that the President and the Prime Minister are confident that they can personally storm through government uncovering and dealing decisively with problems. This kind of action has already proven effective at getting people’s attention, and indeed at solving some long-entrenched problems. But taken at face value, it might undermine the longer term vision of a Tanzania whose future ought to be anchored by strong institutions instead of charismatic personalities. It also hints at a level of sensitivity to criticism that may lead to anti-democratic restrictions on the space for public debate. Such a paternalistic “Father Knows Best” posture may produce an initially popular benevolent authoritarianism in the short term. But without a deep sense of self-awareness and a healthy dose of moderation on the part of the President, it can turn into bitter despotism.

2. “It is us against them”

Second, it could be that President Magufuli and Prime Minister Majaliwa want to engage the public in a joint effort to combat corruption, incompetence and mismanagement in the civil service. They display a lack of trust in the machinery of government that they inherited, perhaps justifiably so given their own personal experience at its highest levels. They are eager to combine top-down authority with bottom-up citizen pressure to make public officials more accountable. This “it is us against them” approach has captured the imagination and early support of ordinary Tanzanians. But, the risk is that civil servants – the ‘them’- take serious offence at being scapegoated as lazy, dishonest and incompetent. There are hundreds of thousands of dedicated, hardworking, long-suffering teachers, nurses and administrators across government. If they start to feel that their own government is not treating them fairly, they could deploy that uniquely Tanzanian mgomo baridi (go-slow) and quietly strangle all efforts at deeper, lasting reform.

3. “We are on this journey together”

Third, it could be that President Magufuli has detected a rare opportunity to create a unifying
“We are on this journey together” ethos, by nurturing a powerful sense of national pride and purpose. If so, he should invite both citizens and civil servants to join him in a collective effort to provide honest feedback on how things are going and to bring fresh ideas for what should be done, and how it should be done. This would be a joint endeavour that does not tolerate corruption or wasteful expenditure, but one that is open to new ideas and robust public debate, even when that debate involves criticism of government itself.

Conclusion: Time to open up…

It is still early in the 1,825 days of his first term but President Magufuli can start to embed an open and inclusive approach to his administration. One place to start would be the media and information. That means welcoming the live TV cameras back into Parliament. It means reaching out to a wide group of stakeholders to turn the Media Services Bill into a law that that empowers and liberates rather than restricts. It means passing a strong Access to Information Bill that opens up the workings of government to all citizens.

A wise judge once noted that ‘sunlight is the best disinfectant.’ President Magufuli should not shy away from opening up government in order to permanently cauterize the rot he has found within it.

One thousand six hundred days is plenty of time for President Magufuli to show that, in addition to being an effective bulldozer, he is also an imaginative architect, an adept designer and a master-craftsman who inspires citizens to reach for a higher prize. Tanzanians know that he can build roads. They are eager for him to show that he can also forge a new, energizing and inclusive sense of national purpose.

 

[mkupuo]

Seen and read.

 

[Fofader]

Hapa comment ni chache sijui kwa nini?

 

[Mawembasa1979]

Hapa comment ni chache sijui kwa nini?

Lugha iliyotumika kwenye huu uzi ililetwa na meli mkuu!

 

[mwana wa mtemi]

A SENSE OF PATRIOTISM AND NATIONALITY THOUGH OPENNESS OF PREVIOUS REGIME LEFT NOTHING TO COPY

 

[chinchilla coat]

nitarudi kuisoma nikiwa na muda, mkuu Informer thanks

 

[ngozimbili]

Ni kweli kabisa mapambano dhidi ya ufisadi ni yetu sote, na yanatakiwa yajengwe kwenye taasisi imara, ili yawe endelevu sababu ufisadi na makandokando yake ni mambo endelevu hayana mwisho na vita yake ni hivyo hivyo haina mwisho.

Kuifanya vita hii yenye mamia ya miaka kuwa ya serikali moja itakayokaa madarakani miaka mitano au kumi ni kufanya mzaha wenye kuchukiza.

 

[Msambichaka Mkinga]

Great thoughts. We need to work towards strong instutions building rather than leaders seeking for public attention.

 

[Ndyali]

Ni kweli kabisa mapambano dhidi ya ufisadi ni yetu sote, na yanatakiwa yajengwe kwenye taasisi imara, ili yawe endelevu sababu ufisadi na makandokando yake ni mambo endelevu hayana mwisho na vita yake ni hivyo hivyo haina mwisho, kuifanya vita hii yenye mamia ya miaka kuwa ya serikali moja itakayokaa madarakani miaka mitano au kumi ni kufanya mzaha wenye kuchukiza.

Ninachohisi, chini ya uongozo wa mheshimiwa Mgufuli ambaye kwa mamlaka yake ameamua kutufumba midomo kwa kisingizio cha kila anaekosoa uovu na uonevu ni "UCHOCHEZI".Tanzania imetumbukizwa kwenye ukandamizaji kuliko wa Makaburu wa Afrika Kusini ya zamamni.

 

[mwengeso]

What I can contribute, which the post overlooked is "persitent lack of 'political will' amongst our leaders". Now we have a leader in Dr Magufuli, amassed with "management by objectives" skills that he is sharing with his carefully selected surbonates.

However, we are also witnessing the 'OPPOSITION' through clandestine operations/acts, trying to undermine people's hope of a new prosperous Tanzania, callously.

PLAY YOUR PART, THIS IS THE TIME.

 

[chinchilla coat]

sunlight is the best disinfectant.. i love this,
but i don't expect this administration to open up, what they're afraid of is welcoming live debates would give the opposition a chance to expose them and hence downing their popularity.. they won't allow such a thing,
i think now you can see the trend in Africa where the governments shutdown social medias to silence the public and Tanzania is not an exception, one day they may do this

 

[Sophist]

The author, Aidan Eyakuze, may have done a good piece in its own right. Nevertheless, the analysis is superficial, populist in itself, and well informed by the buzz complaining media, sympathetic to the inept linear and static opposition.

One would expect Aidan to have gone down deep to analyse the designs, architecture and outcomes of the 20 years plus largely donor bankrolled governance software and hardware that failed elsewhere, Tanzania inclusive. We expected that candid analysis of Tanzania political anthropology to justify or defy the course JPM has so far taken to get the government structures, policy, institutions and systems rightly corrected. The comprehensive governance analysis should have compared the power analysis amongst actors and drivers in the country and, for example, how the less than 5% middle class population can be taken for granted as representative of 95% downtrodden population as far as media content that matters is concerned. Most Tanzanians do not depend on knowledge and information but land to make living.

Actually, JPM is assuming powers of the eked poor, wrecked of the earth Tanzanians to elevate the voices of the 95% population. For over 20 years ago, the donors christened development partners, have been at the top of actors influencing as well as driving governance policy of our lovely nation. Aidan knows this well because he has and still works for donors to make living. Our natural resources (mining, natural gas, fisheries, forestry, and wildlife) policy were largely advised and enforced by World Bank, International Monetary Fund, European Union, World Trade Organisation, Paris Club, G7, the United States of America, to mention only a few global economic machination conspiracies, together with affiliate countries in the North. The country was forced to implement such foreign ploys Policies as Structural Adjustment Programmes, Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility, Highly Indebted Poor Countries' Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, World Bank Strategy for African Mining (1992) and the like. The donors trapped Tanzania in the centre of global economic jargons cobweb, brainwashed the nation's human capital (think tank) as they seized the opportunity of the largely ignorant Tanzanian population to hatch conspiracy that would easing donors soaking their long barbed hands into our country's pocket.

This has been the status quo since Mwinyi II, Mkapa I & II and Kikwete I & II era during which Tanzania lost to the Northern vultures.

No wonder, for example, unlike Canada, whose gold stock supplies have significant dependence ratio on Tanzania, the latter is categorised as mere 'source' of minerals, while the former is conventionally categorised as 'gold mining' country. The implication is Tanzania cannot directly negotiate gold price or trade the base metal except when it is done through the mining companies incorporate or listed in Canada, Australia, UK, US or elsewhere in the North.

These are the skewed governance policy issues Aidan should have analysed to show the extent to which JPM's policy options run the risk of failing to correct. I don't see how the president may correct these erstwhile intricacies without popular support of the masses. If JPM succeeds, and it so happens, definitely the architects of global economic machination conspiracy, together with their accomplices, will not be happy. Aidan Eyakuze may have done a good piece in its own right.

 

[TUJITEGEMEE]

The author, Aidan Eyakuze, may have done a good piece in its own right. Nevertheless, the analysis is supeeficial, populist in itself well informed by buzz complaining media simpathetic to inept linear and static opposition.

One would expect Aidan to have gone down deep to analyse the designs, archtecture and outcomes of the 20 years largely donor bankrolled governance software and hardware. We expected a candid analysis of Tanzania political anthropology to justfy or defy the course JPM has taken to get the government structures, policy, institutions and systems rightly corrected. The comprehensive governance analysis should have compared the power analysis amongst actors in the country and, for example, how the less than 5% middle class population can be taken for granted as representative of 95% downtrodden population as far as media content that matters is concerned.

Actually, is assuming powers to elevate the voices of the 95% population. For over 20 yeaes ago, the donors christined development partners, have been at the top of actors influencing and altogether driving governance policy of our lovely nation. Aidan knows this well because he has and still works for donors. Our natural resources (mining, natural gas, fisheries, forestry, and wildlife) policy were largely advised and enforced by World Bank, International Monetary Fund, European Union, United States of America togerher with affiliate countries in the North. The country was forced to implement such foreign ploys Policies as SAPs, ESAF, WBMSA and the like. The donors seized the opportunity of the largely ignorant Tanzanian population to hatch conspiracy that would easing them soaking their long barbed hands into our country's pocket. This has been the status quo since Mwinyi II, Mkapa and Kikwete eras during which Tanzanians lost to the Northern vultures.

No wonder, for example, unlike Canada, whose gold supplies have significant dependence ratio from Tanzania, the latter is categorised as source of minerals while the former is conventionally categorised as gold mining country. The implication is Tanzania cannot directly negotiate gold price or trade the base metal but through the mining companies from or listed in Canada, Australia, UK or US.

These are the skewed governance policy issues Aidan should have analysed to show the extent to which JPM's policy options run the risk of failing correct. I don't see how the president may correct these erstwhile intricacies without popular support of the masses. If so this happens, definitely the archtects together with their accomplices will not be happy. Aidan Eyakuze may be right.

I wish your post could appear in the next issue of The East African
======
I'm wondering, why this lady has not behold the enormous effort to deal with ghost workers being upheld by the current government! !

 

[TUJITEGEMEE]

sunlight is the best disinfectant.. i love this,
but i don't expect this administration to open up, what they're afraid of is welcoming live debates would give the opposition a chance to expose them and hence downing their popularity.. they won't allow such a thing,
i think now you can see the trend in Africa where the governments shutdown social medias to silence the public and Tanzania is not an exception, one day they may do this

I'm sorry, but the social media in Africa need a ball valves to regulate their throughput otherwise the government machinery will stall. Take a look on falsified output from social media in previous days. currently the government is wasting the time to clear the polluted air by social media! !! It is the same social media which has uttered that Jerry Muro has a free access in the very white and protected house around Magogoni a couple of days ago! !
Now how can you let loose this auto-robot so called social media roam freely in our 'decent Streets' without a backup control! !!

 

[mzurimie]

Nimependa

 

[jingalao]

Mr Eyakuze is trying to suggest common approach to the commonest problems.

My Stand is We have a new boss in town and it is a time for business unusual ....Your cosmetic way of handling matters will be considered probably 1600 days after.

What should YOU do now...JUST BE AS WISE AS THE SERPENT YOU HAVE ENCOUNTERED!

 

[Sophist]

I wish your post could appear in the next issue of The East African
======
I'm wondering, why this lady has not behold the enormous effort to deal with ghost workers being upheld by the current government! !

if they so wish can pick it.

 

[structuralist]

We should always try to be objective especially when it comes to issues of national importance. There those who believe that the current government is always right simply because the man at the helm has good intention of transforming this country and helping the poor.

 

[BansenBurner]

Nimependa

Pambanua zaidi

 

[Mwelewa]

Tunahitaji vyote......taasisi imara pia viongozi imara.