Optimism is not a strategy, arithmetic is. Read that yesterday and got immediately fixed in my brain

Optimism is not a strategy, arithmetic is. Read that yesterday and got immediately fixed in my brain

britanicca

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Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. It is amazing to see how many capable businessmen try to operate in Wall Street with complete disregard of all the sound principles through which they have gained success in their own undertak-ings. Yet every corporate security may best be viewed, in the first instance, as an ownership interest in, or a claim against, a specific business enterprise. And if a person sets out to make profits from security purchases and sales, he is embarking on a business venture of his own, which must be run in accordance with accepted business principles if it is to have a chance of success.

The first and most obvious of these principles is, "Know what you are doing—know your business." For the investor this means:

Do not try to make "business profits" out of securities— that is, returns in excess of normal interest and dividend income unless you know as much about security values as you would need to know about the value of merchandise that you proposed to manufacture or deal in.

A second business principle: "Do not let anyone else run your business, unless (1) you can supervise his performance with adequate care and comprehension or (2) you have unusually strong reasons for placing implicit confidence in his integrity and ability." For the investor this rule should determine the conditions under which he will permit someone else to decide what is done with his money.

A third business principle: "Do not enter upon an operation— that is, manufacturing or trading in an item—unless a reliable calculation shows that it has a fair chance to yield a reasonable profit.

In particular, keep away from ventures in which you have little to gain and much to lose." For the enterprising investor this means that his operations for profit should be based not on optimism but on arithmetic. For every investor it means that when he limits his return to a small figure as formerly, at least, in a conventional bond or preferred stock—he must demand convincing evidence that he is not risking a substantial part of his principal.

Britanicca
 
"Do not let anyone else run your business".


Mr. Mia Tisa itapendeza hapa naona alishapigwa chini ama ndiyo "Integrity" yake bado inaaminika!
 
Success in investments is 80% luck, 10% timing and the rest is what people will try to understand it, looking back to someone who bought bitcoin when it started then we can say he got lucky
 
Kwa sisi tulio nanjilinji, ina someka hivi.

Uwekezaji ni wa akili zaidi wakati ni kama biashara zaidi. Inashangaza kuona jinsi wafanyabiashara wengi wenye uwezo wanajaribu kufanya kazi katika Wall Street bila kuzingatia kabisa kanuni zote nzuri ambazo kupitia hizo wamepata mafanikio katika shughuli zao wenyewe.
Bado kila usalama wa shirika unaweza kutazamwa vyema, mara ya kwanza, kama maslahi ya umiliki, au madai dhidi ya, biashara mahususi. Na ikiwa mtu anajitolea kupata faida kutokana na ununuzi na mauzo ya usalama, anaanzisha biashara yake mwenyewe, ambayo lazima iendeshwe kwa kanuni zinazokubalika za biashara ili kupata nafasi ya kufaulu.

Kanuni ya kwanza na iliyo dhahiri zaidi ya kanuni hizi ni, "Jua unachofanya - jua biashara yako." Kwa mwekezaji hii inamaanisha:
Usijaribu kutengeneza "faida ya biashara" kutokana na dhamana— yaani, mapato yanayozidi faida ya kawaida na mapato ya mgao isipokuwa kama unajua mengi kuhusu maadili ya usalama kama vile ungehitaji kujua kuhusu thamani ya bidhaa uliyopendekeza kutengeneza au kushughulikia.

Kanuni ya pili ya biashara: "Usiruhusu mtu mwingine yeyote aendeshe biashara yako, isipokuwa (1) unaweza kusimamia utendaji wake kwa uangalifu na ufahamu wa kutosha au (2) una sababu kubwa zisizo za kawaida za kuweka imani kamili katika uadilifu na uwezo wake." Kwa mwekezaji sheria hii inapaswa kuamua masharti ambayo atamruhusu mtu mwingine kuamua nini kifanyike kwa pesa zake.

Kanuni ya tatu ya biashara: "Usiingie kwenye shughuli - yaani, kutengeneza au kufanya biashara ya bidhaa - isipokuwa hesabu inayoaminika inaonyesha kuwa ina nafasi nzuri ya kutoa faida inayofaa.
Hasa, jiepushe na ubia ambao huna faida kidogo na mengi ya kupoteza." Kwa mwekezaji anayejishughulisha hii ina maana kwamba shughuli zake za kupata faida hazipaswi kutegemea matumaini bali hesabu. Kwa kila mwekezaji ina maana kwamba anapoweka kikomo cha kurudi kwake kwa kiasi kidogo kama hapo awali, angalau, katika bondi ya kawaida au hisa anayopendelea-lazima adai uthibitisho wa kuthibitisha kwamba yeye ni mhusika mkuu wa hatari.

Intelli fuvkin world.
 
Kwa sisi tulio nanjilinji, ina someka hivi.

Uwekezaji ni wa akili zaidi wakati ni kama biashara zaidi. Inashangaza kuona jinsi wafanyabiashara wengi wenye uwezo wanajaribu kufanya kazi katika Wall Street bila kuzingatia kabisa kanuni zote nzuri ambazo kupitia hizo wamepata mafanikio katika shughuli zao wenyewe.
Bado kila usalama wa shirika unaweza kutazamwa vyema, mara ya kwanza, kama maslahi ya umiliki, au madai dhidi ya, biashara mahususi. Na ikiwa mtu anajitolea kupata faida kutokana na ununuzi na mauzo ya usalama, anaanzisha biashara yake mwenyewe, ambayo lazima iendeshwe kwa kanuni zinazokubalika za biashara ili kupata nafasi ya kufaulu.

Kanuni ya kwanza na iliyo dhahiri zaidi ya kanuni hizi ni, "Jua unachofanya - jua biashara yako." Kwa mwekezaji hii inamaanisha:
Usijaribu kutengeneza "faida ya biashara" kutokana na dhamana— yaani, mapato yanayozidi faida ya kawaida na mapato ya mgao isipokuwa kama unajua mengi kuhusu maadili ya usalama kama vile ungehitaji kujua kuhusu thamani ya bidhaa uliyopendekeza kutengeneza au kushughulikia.

Kanuni ya pili ya biashara: "Usiruhusu mtu mwingine yeyote aendeshe biashara yako, isipokuwa (1) unaweza kusimamia utendaji wake kwa uangalifu na ufahamu wa kutosha au (2) una sababu kubwa zisizo za kawaida za kuweka imani kamili katika uadilifu na uwezo wake." Kwa mwekezaji sheria hii inapaswa kuamua masharti ambayo atamruhusu mtu mwingine kuamua nini kifanyike kwa pesa zake.

Kanuni ya tatu ya biashara: "Usiingie kwenye shughuli - yaani, kutengeneza au kufanya biashara ya bidhaa - isipokuwa hesabu inayoaminika inaonyesha kuwa ina nafasi nzuri ya kutoa faida inayofaa.
Hasa, jiepushe na ubia ambao huna faida kidogo na mengi ya kupoteza." Kwa mwekezaji anayejishughulisha hii ina maana kwamba shughuli zake za kupata faida hazipaswi kutegemea matumaini bali hesabu. Kwa kila mwekezaji ina maana kwamba anapoweka kikomo cha kurudi kwake kwa kiasi kidogo kama hapo awali, angalau, katika bondi ya kawaida au hisa anayopendelea-lazima adai uthibitisho wa kuthibitisha kwamba yeye ni mhusika mkuu wa hatari.

Intelli fuvkin world.
Hakika kabsiaaa
 
success in investments is 80% luck, 10% timing and the rest is what people will try to understand it, looking back to someone who bought bitcoin when it started then we can say he got lucky
Define luck
 
I see it's been a while since you've posted, but I just want to ask—has anyone here actually used strict budgeting based on real income vs projections? I’m curious how sticking to the numbers affected your mindset, especially during rough months. I used to “hope” things would work out, but tracking the actual math changed how I make decisions. Anyone else experienced that shift from hope to hard numbers?
 
Sometimes I rely on numbers to stay grounded, but there are days when everything still feels too heavy. I found some calm by talking through stuff with someone, and a friend pointed me to mentalhealthhotline.org. It’s not flashy, just a place to start if you’re feeling stuck or unsure. Help doesn’t need to come with big steps — even a quiet chat can change how the day feels.
 
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