Ladsous (FDLR founding father) at it again

[mchambawima1]

The UN is woefully unprepared to tackle the possibility of worsening bloodshed in Burundi, according to a confidential memo written by the organization's peacekeeping office and obtained by VICE News.

The document is part of contingency planning underway at both the United Nations and the African Union (AU) for future operations in Burundi, and was sent to Security Council members earlier this week. Signed by Herve Ladsous, head of the UN's Department of Peacekeeping (DPKO), the memo envisions various scenarios in Burundi, ranging from continued sporadic violence to genocide-type situations, as well as possible UN deployments in the country.

None of deployment options appear capable of protecting most Burundians in the event of open war or more widespread killings. "Most importantly," DPKO wrote, "United Nation's peacekeeping is limited in its ability to address significant violence against civilians, even violence amounting to genocide, where it lacks a political framework and the strategic consent of the host nation and/or the main parties to the conflict."

Just a decade removed from civil war, fears of such violence in Burundi have increased in the past year, reaching a bloody crescendo last month when more than 80 people — and possibly many more — were killed in the span of several days. On the morning of December 11, gunmen attacked three military bases in and around the capital Bujumbura. In the aftermath, security forces stormed neighborhoods associated with the opposition. According to investigators at the International Federation for Human Rights, more than 150 civilians were killed, and almost as many disappeared.

The following day, US ambassador to the UN Samantha Power wrote a grim email to British and French diplomats, saying that the country was "going to hell." In the short note, obtained by VICE News, Power expressed frustration with an emergency Security Council session the day before. "No contingency planning, no UN presence, no dialogue…" she wrote. As the DPKO assessment makes clear, a month later, the UN's contingency planning remains hamstrung by a lack of resources and, even if deployed, peacekeepers that are largely untested in preventing mass atrocities.

On December 17, the AU approved its own peacekeeping force of up to 5,000 personnel for Burundi. Citing a clause in its charter that had never been used before, the organization's Peace and Security Council said it was willing to send the force — dubbed MAPROBU — with or without the consent of Burundi's government. Pierre Nkurunziza, Burundi's embattled president, brushed aside a four-day deadline to accept MAPROBU, and said any intervention would be met with force.

It was Nkurunziza's decision last April to run for a contentious third term that set off the current turmoil. Opposition politicians and activists, citing Burundi's constitution, declared that the president was limited to two terms, and took to the streets. Nkrunziza, formerly the leader of the country's largest Hutu rebel force during the civil war that ended in 2005, said his first term, which began that year, didn't count against the term limit because he was technically appointed. Amid great controversy, the country's courts agreed, and he was re-elected in July.

Watch the VICE News dispatch Election Results and Post-Poll Violence: Burundi on the Brink:

Since April, the UN estimates that at least 400 people have been killed — nearly half of them in just the last two months. In its assessment, DPKO said the members of the ruling CNDD-FDD party's notorious youth wing, known as the Imbonerakure, "continue to target actual or perceived members of the political opposition and civil society." Meanwhile, at least two formal rebel groups have emerged. On December 23, former army Colonel Edward Nshirimirana told media that a new group, the Republican Forces of Burundi, had been established with the explicit intent of overthrowing Nkurunziza. The second rebel force, according to DPKO, is know as Resistance pour l'Etat de droit, or, Resistance for the Rule of Law.

In a region beset in the past half century by ethnic-based killings — both Burundi and neighboring Rwanda experienced genocides in the 1990s — analysts have taken pains to characterize the current turmoil as primarily political. Indeed, many of Nkurunziza's most ardent opponents, both politicians and members of civil society, are part of the country's Hutu majority.

However, in the past month, several UN officials have publicly stated their concern over increasing ethnic divisions. On December 17, UN human rights chief Zeid Ra'ad al Hussein warned that "a frightened, uninformed population, fed a diet of hate speech and paranoia, is one that may be recruited to the path of violence by either side." The consequences of such a mobilization, he said, "would be catastrophic — especially given the ethnic elements already being stoked — given the country's terrible history in this regard." Burundi, he added, was "on the very cusp of a civil war."

Nkurunziza's repeated accusations that Rwanda is playing a role in the arming and training of rebels have added to the tensions. A report released in December by Refugees International documented recruitment efforts involving Rwandan officials, among refugee camps inside Rwanda, where some 75,000 Burundians have fled. The report also cited witnesses who said recruits were brought to the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo en route back to Burundi.

Several diplomats and sources close to the UN confirmed to VICE News that UN investigators have documented such activity, but have not yet made the finding public. Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who came to power after leading a predominantly Tutsi rebel force in the 1990s, has denied any role in fomenting an insurgency in Burundi.

The political framework that DPKO says would be necessary to keep the peace, or to accommodate a UN or AU deployment, remains absent in Burundi. This week, the government said it would not take part in proposed negotiations in Tanzania, claiming that the individuals involved in the talks were responsible for arming rebels.

In light of the uncertainty in the country, the UN continues to support planning efforts for the deployment of MAPROBU, the African Union's peacekeeping force. In the letter obtained by VICE News, DPKO said the AU envisioned the mission as a "phased deployment," starting with the arrival of more military and civilian observers, along with a "small force protection presence." Only later, again with the consent of Burundi's government, would infantry and police units arrive. A third phase would begins "once political dialogue reaches an agreement, at which point the force would be configured to support implementation of the agreement."

'A truly worst-case scenario will result in a scale of violence beyond the United Nations' capacity to protect against without significant additional capabilities.'
But in its contingency planning, DPKO also envisions scenarios that far surpass the instability that MAPROBU or a UN force could withstand, and ones that appear increasingly possible. The first scenario described in the memo is more or less the current state of affairs, "a continuation of relatively low-intensity, sporadic violence." The second is much worse: "an escalation of organized violence, bringing the country into a situation of civil war." The third and worst-case possibility is described as an environment of "widespread and systematic human rights violations, potentially amounting to genocide."

In the second two scenarios, the UN predicts a spread of fighting throughout Burundi, and spillover into Rwanda and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), affecting millions. The third predicts ethnic tensions also spilling over. In both scenarios, peacekeepers "would need to be deployed urgently to protect civilians, prevent widespread and systematic human rights violations, secure key roads," guard Bujumbura's airport, and safeguard humanitarian assistance.

In the first scenario, DPKO envisions the deployment of MAPROBU as still being viable, saying the UN could potentially offer a "support package" with Security Council authorization. If the Security Council were to vote for a full-fledged UN force in the country, DPKO would consider "re-hatting" members the AU force, meaning they would become UN peacekeepers, which are known as Blue Helmets. But any UN mission, as the memo notes, would require three elements: a Security Council mandate under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, a supply of sufficiently vetted and willing troops, and the consent of Burundi's government. None of those things are guaranteed.

According to the letter, DPKO has formed two plans for UN intervention in Burundi. The first would involve a brigade of up to 4,000 troops drawn from MONUSCO, the UN's mission in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo. The mission would consist of "up to four infantry battalions, Special Forces, attack and utility helicopters, an engineering unit, and up to two formed police units and 50 individual officers along with a small civilian capacity, including a civilian Head of Mission." DPKO estimates it would need 28 days to have its troops and assets readied for deployment across the border for a stay of up to 120 days.

Among the possible complications of such a maneuver are cajoling troop contributing countries with Blue Helmets in the Congo to agree to their possible redeployment in Burundi. According to the note, the UN has reached out to countries with troops in the Congo, and two, it said, "had responded positively."

But even if that goes well, DPKO is concerned that drawing troops away from the Congo could lead to dangerous gaps in security there, especially as the country approaches contentious elections in November. As the temporary mission in Burundi would be linked to MONUSCO for supply purposes, it would also require consent of the Congolese government in Kinshasa.

"Combined with the continued threat of armed groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, removing a brigade and two formed police units from the Mission [MONUSCO] during this period will threaten the Mission's ability to protect civilians and provide security and stability in the country," DPKO cautioned in its assessment.

In all three scenarios, DPKO only envisions a UN force as "a measure of last resort where political dialogue and preventative deployments have failed to avert widespread conflict and where no first-responder-nation or coalition-of-the-willing has stepped forward."

DPKO's second option foresees as many as 10,000 troops being sent to Burundi, which would require four to six months of preparations. "Even with advanced planning, the timeline for such a deployment is unlikely to meet the rapid deployment needs in an evolving situation such as Burundi," wrote DPKO.

After outlining the scenarios in Burundi and possible UN responses, DPKO worryingly cautioned that all the peacekeeping possibilities it presented to the Security Council "offer limited scope" to prevent atrocities because of logistical complications. In any scenario, "these options also highlight strategic gaps that the United Nations in unsuited to fill," said the document, adding that despite being charged with civilian protection, the UN would be unprepared to handle a genocide-type environment.

Such a development would be deeply embarrassing for the Security Council, whose darkest hour is widely viewed as its effective abandonment of the peacekeeping force in Rwanda during the country's 1994 genocide. But, as DPKO's assessment makes clear, there is currently no sufficient plan should such violence — or even a lesser form — emerge in Burundi.

"The last-resort deployment outlined here will seek to save as many lives as possible, but a truly worst-case scenario will result in a scale of violence beyond the United Nations' capacity to protect against without significant additional capabilities," said DPKO.

In concluding the note, DPKO said that the Security Council should go ahead with a tentatively planned trip to Burundi as part of a larger effort to reach a political solution to the crisis.

"The growing number of targeted human rights violations and increasing protection concerns in Burundi, coupled with its history of violence and instability, require further and comprehensive planning leading to effective protection of civilians as a core priority for the for the deployment of uniformed United Nations personnel," wrote DPKO.

Source: news.vice.com

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Ndugu yangu Mchambawima hujalala tu bado?
Yote hii ni Nkhurunzinza anaye kunyima usingizi?
Afya yako itadorora na mimi sipendi ufike huko.
Please live Healthy bro.

Ahsante kwa Tag, nimeona hapo.
But this neither proves nor disputes anything. It is simply vague my friend.
Very unprofessional and the nexus being to vindicate the Hutus and placing an Iron wedge to a peaceful compromise in a war torn state.

Legally speaking,
Sporadic violence does not meet the required threshold to say that Burundi is experiencing a Non-International Armed Conflict or A Civil War as you may term it.
The best professional term compatible for the Burundi situation is Protracted Violence.
So i don't buy this argument.

Hereinafter the Article speaks of Genocide without proof of Genocidal Intent.
Its very hard to prove that there is a genocidal intent. Even international Tribunals/Courts are succumbed by troubles when proving genocidal intent.
The vagueness comes when the Article speaks of Genocide in a Civil war between the two major Burundian tribes. If there is a war how can there be genocide??
Very Paradoxical and incoherent.

Therefore the Author speaks of likelihood of genocide without actual materialization.
I understand his concern but, preemptive judgement and inert speculation doomed Iraq and Afghanistan.
Lets treat the Burundi facts different from those of Rwanda; the only similarity is Tribal issues.

Now see how funny you are my friend.
When we speak of Systematic or widespread attacks against a Civilian property and population; we simply prove mutatis mutandis of Crimes Against Humanity as stipulated Under the Rome Statute.
Genocide doesn't fit here.

Remember the concept of State Sovereignty as The Monte Video Convention of 1933 speaks about.
No sovereign state is to be interfered in her domestic affairs. There is a Legitimate government in Burundi unless you tell me otherwise.

 

[mchambawima1]

Ndugu yangu Mchambawima bado tu hujalala bado?
Yote hii ni Nkhurunzinza anye kunyima usingizi?
Afya yako itadorora na mimi sipendi ufike huko.
Please live Healthy bro.

Ahsante kwa Tag, nimeona hapo.
But this does neither proves nor disputes anything. It is simply vague my friend.
Very unprofessional and the nexus being to vindicate the Hutus and placing an Iron wedge to a peaceful compromise in a war torn state.

Legally speaking,
Sporadic violence does not meet the required threshold to say that Burundi is a Non-International Armed Conflict or A Civil War as you may term it.
The best professional term compatible for the Burundi situation is Protracted Violence.
So i don't buy this argument.

Hereinafter the Article speaks of Genocide without proof of Genocidal Intent.
Its very hard to prove that there is a genocidal intent. Even international Tribunals/Courts are succumbed by troubles when proving genocidal intent.
The vagueness comes when the Article speaks of Genocide in a Civil war between the two major Burundian tribes. If there is a war how can there be genocide??
Very Paradoxical and incoherent.

Therefore the Author speaks of likelihood of genocide without actual materialization.
I understand his concern but, preemptive judgement and inert speculation doomed Iraq and Afghanistan.
Lets treat the Burundi facts different from those of Rwanda; the only similarity is Tribal issues.

Now see how funny you are my friend.
When we speak of Systematic or widespread attacks against a Civilian property and population; we simply prove mutatis mutandis of Crimes Against Humanity as stipulated Under the Rome Statute.
Genocide doesn't fit here.

Remember the concept of State Sovereignty as The Monte Video Convention of 1933 speak about.
No sovereign state is to be interfered in her domestic affairs. There is a Legitimate government in Burundi unless you tell me otherwise.

hahaha, you are welcome MALCOM LUMUMBA ...vp? tuliachana unaenda kujenga taifa, sasa umefikia wapi kwenye msingi au paa? Burundians need the same my friend! unfortunately for 2day my time is very limited, I am still busy compiling a project's milestone report... I know this article is a bit vague but I thought it is wise if we can share.
take a look here and I will come back to you

 

[kibarango]

Hili swala la Burundi linakuzwa sana na propaganda za anti Hutu. Jamani tangu ile attack ya rebel katika maeneo ya majeshi ile dec 11,2015 hadi leo sijaona wala kusikia mauaji huko Burundi.

Sasa ni mwezi mzima umeisha Burundi ikiwa na AMANI.

vuva Burundi

 

[vyuma]

The UN is woefully unprepared to tackle the possibility of worsening bloodshed in Burundi, according to a confidential memo written by the organization's peacekeeping office and obtained by VICE News.

The document is part of contingency planning underway at both the United Nations and the African Union (AU) for future operations in Burundi, and was sent to Security Council members earlier this week. Signed by Herve Ladsous, head of the UN's Department of Peacekeeping (DPKO), the memo envisions various scenarios in Burundi, ranging from continued sporadic violence to genocide-type situations, as well as possible UN deployments in the country.

None of deployment options appear capable of protecting most Burundians in the event of open war or more widespread killings. "Most importantly," DPKO wrote, "United Nation's peacekeeping is limited in its ability to address significant violence against civilians, even violence amounting to genocide, where it lacks a political framework and the strategic consent of the host nation and/or the main parties to the conflict."

Just a decade removed from civil war, fears of such violence in Burundi have increased in the past year, reaching a bloody crescendo last month when more than 80 people — and possibly many more — were killed in the span of several days. On the morning of December 11, gunmen attacked three military bases in and around the capital Bujumbura. In the aftermath, security forces stormed neighborhoods associated with the opposition. According to investigators at the International Federation for Human Rights, more than 150 civilians were killed, and almost as many disappeared.

The following day, US ambassador to the UN Samantha Power wrote a grim email to British and French diplomats, saying that the country was "going to hell." In the short note, obtained by VICE News, Power expressed frustration with an emergency Security Council session the day before. "No contingency planning, no UN presence, no dialogue…" she wrote. As the DPKO assessment makes clear, a month later, the UN's contingency planning remains hamstrung by a lack of resources and, even if deployed, peacekeepers that are largely untested in preventing mass atrocities.

On December 17, the AU approved its own peacekeeping force of up to 5,000 personnel for Burundi. Citing a clause in its charter that had never been used before, the organization's Peace and Security Council said it was willing to send the force — dubbed MAPROBU — with or without the consent of Burundi's government. Pierre Nkurunziza, Burundi's embattled president, brushed aside a four-day deadline to accept MAPROBU, and said any intervention would be met with force.

It was Nkurunziza's decision last April to run for a contentious third term that set off the current turmoil. Opposition politicians and activists, citing Burundi's constitution, declared that the president was limited to two terms, and took to the streets. Nkrunziza, formerly the leader of the country's largest Hutu rebel force during the civil war that ended in 2005, said his first term, which began that year, didn't count against the term limit because he was technically appointed. Amid great controversy, the country's courts agreed, and he was re-elected in July.

Watch the VICE News dispatch Election Results and Post-Poll Violence: Burundi on the Brink:

Since April, the UN estimates that at least 400 people have been killed — nearly half of them in just the last two months. In its assessment, DPKO said the members of the ruling CNDD-FDD party's notorious youth wing, known as the Imbonerakure, "continue to target actual or perceived members of the political opposition and civil society." Meanwhile, at least two formal rebel groups have emerged. On December 23, former army Colonel Edward Nshirimirana told media that a new group, the Republican Forces of Burundi, had been established with the explicit intent of overthrowing Nkurunziza. The second rebel force, according to DPKO, is know as Resistance pour l'Etat de droit, or, Resistance for the Rule of Law.

In a region beset in the past half century by ethnic-based killings — both Burundi and neighboring Rwanda experienced genocides in the 1990s — analysts have taken pains to characterize the current turmoil as primarily political. Indeed, many of Nkurunziza's most ardent opponents, both politicians and members of civil society, are part of the country's Hutu majority.

However, in the past month, several UN officials have publicly stated their concern over increasing ethnic divisions. On December 17, UN human rights chief Zeid Ra'ad al Hussein warned that "a frightened, uninformed population, fed a diet of hate speech and paranoia, is one that may be recruited to the path of violence by either side." The consequences of such a mobilization, he said, "would be catastrophic — especially given the ethnic elements already being stoked — given the country's terrible history in this regard." Burundi, he added, was "on the very cusp of a civil war."

Nkurunziza's repeated accusations that Rwanda is playing a role in the arming and training of rebels have added to the tensions. A report released in December by Refugees International documented recruitment efforts involving Rwandan officials, among refugee camps inside Rwanda, where some 75,000 Burundians have fled. The report also cited witnesses who said recruits were brought to the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo en route back to Burundi.

Several diplomats and sources close to the UN confirmed to VICE News that UN investigators have documented such activity, but have not yet made the finding public. Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who came to power after leading a predominantly Tutsi rebel force in the 1990s, has denied any role in fomenting an insurgency in Burundi.

The political framework that DPKO says would be necessary to keep the peace, or to accommodate a UN or AU deployment, remains absent in Burundi. This week, the government said it would not take part in proposed negotiations in Tanzania, claiming that the individuals involved in the talks were responsible for arming rebels.

In light of the uncertainty in the country, the UN continues to support planning efforts for the deployment of MAPROBU, the African Union's peacekeeping force. In the letter obtained by VICE News, DPKO said the AU envisioned the mission as a "phased deployment," starting with the arrival of more military and civilian observers, along with a "small force protection presence." Only later, again with the consent of Burundi's government, would infantry and police units arrive. A third phase would begins "once political dialogue reaches an agreement, at which point the force would be configured to support implementation of the agreement."

'A truly worst-case scenario will result in a scale of violence beyond the United Nations' capacity to protect against without significant additional capabilities.'
But in its contingency planning, DPKO also envisions scenarios that far surpass the instability that MAPROBU or a UN force could withstand, and ones that appear increasingly possible. The first scenario described in the memo is more or less the current state of affairs, "a continuation of relatively low-intensity, sporadic violence." The second is much worse: "an escalation of organized violence, bringing the country into a situation of civil war." The third and worst-case possibility is described as an environment of "widespread and systematic human rights violations, potentially amounting to genocide."

In the second two scenarios, the UN predicts a spread of fighting throughout Burundi, and spillover into Rwanda and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), affecting millions. The third predicts ethnic tensions also spilling over. In both scenarios, peacekeepers "would need to be deployed urgently to protect civilians, prevent widespread and systematic human rights violations, secure key roads," guard Bujumbura's airport, and safeguard humanitarian assistance.

In the first scenario, DPKO envisions the deployment of MAPROBU as still being viable, saying the UN could potentially offer a "support package" with Security Council authorization. If the Security Council were to vote for a full-fledged UN force in the country, DPKO would consider "re-hatting" members the AU force, meaning they would become UN peacekeepers, which are known as Blue Helmets. But any UN mission, as the memo notes, would require three elements: a Security Council mandate under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, a supply of sufficiently vetted and willing troops, and the consent of Burundi's government. None of those things are guaranteed.

According to the letter, DPKO has formed two plans for UN intervention in Burundi. The first would involve a brigade of up to 4,000 troops drawn from MONUSCO, the UN's mission in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo. The mission would consist of "up to four infantry battalions, Special Forces, attack and utility helicopters, an engineering unit, and up to two formed police units and 50 individual officers along with a small civilian capacity, including a civilian Head of Mission." DPKO estimates it would need 28 days to have its troops and assets readied for deployment across the border for a stay of up to 120 days.

Among the possible complications of such a maneuver are cajoling troop contributing countries with Blue Helmets in the Congo to agree to their possible redeployment in Burundi. According to the note, the UN has reached out to countries with troops in the Congo, and two, it said, "had responded positively."

But even if that goes well, DPKO is concerned that drawing troops away from the Congo could lead to dangerous gaps in security there, especially as the country approaches contentious elections in November. As the temporary mission in Burundi would be linked to MONUSCO for supply purposes, it would also require consent of the Congolese government in Kinshasa.

"Combined with the continued threat of armed groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, removing a brigade and two formed police units from the Mission [MONUSCO] during this period will threaten the Mission's ability to protect civilians and provide security and stability in the country," DPKO cautioned in its assessment.

In all three scenarios, DPKO only envisions a UN force as "a measure of last resort where political dialogue and preventative deployments have failed to avert widespread conflict and where no first-responder-nation or coalition-of-the-willing has stepped forward."

DPKO's second option foresees as many as 10,000 troops being sent to Burundi, which would require four to six months of preparations. "Even with advanced planning, the timeline for such a deployment is unlikely to meet the rapid deployment needs in an evolving situation such as Burundi," wrote DPKO.

After outlining the scenarios in Burundi and possible UN responses, DPKO worryingly cautioned that all the peacekeeping possibilities it presented to the Security Council "offer limited scope" to prevent atrocities because of logistical complications. In any scenario, "these options also highlight strategic gaps that the United Nations in unsuited to fill," said the document, adding that despite being charged with civilian protection, the UN would be unprepared to handle a genocide-type environment.

Such a development would be deeply embarrassing for the Security Council, whose darkest hour is widely viewed as its effective abandonment of the peacekeeping force in Rwanda during the country's 1994 genocide. But, as DPKO's assessment makes clear, there is currently no sufficient plan should such violence — or even a lesser form — emerge in Burundi.

"The last-resort deployment outlined here will seek to save as many lives as possible, but a truly worst-case scenario will result in a scale of violence beyond the United Nations' capacity to protect against without significant additional capabilities," said DPKO.

In concluding the note, DPKO said that the Security Council should go ahead with a tentatively planned trip to Burundi as part of a larger effort to reach a political solution to the crisis.

"The growing number of targeted human rights violations and increasing protection concerns in Burundi, coupled with its history of violence and instability, require further and comprehensive planning leading to effective protection of civilians as a core priority for the for the deployment of uniformed United Nations personnel," wrote DPKO.

Source: news.vice.com

Mchambawima, nimekushauri mara nyingi sana, achana na warundi watayamaliza wenyewe. Nkurunziza anakunyima raha, hupati usingizi kwa ajili yake, una chuki kubwa sana juu yake, lakini huna la kumfanya!Si wewe wala rais wako mwenye ubavu wa kumtikisa Nkurunziza, mwishowe mtakufa kwa kihoro. Burundi ni nchi huru, hayo majeshi yako ya AU hayana nafasi Burundi.Na hizo propaganda zenu za genocide, zitaishia hukohuko Rwanda.

 

[mchambawima1]

Ndugu yangu Mchambawima bado tu hujalala bado?
Yote hii ni Nkhurunzinza anye kunyima usingizi?
Afya yako itadorora na mimi sipendi ufike huko.
Please live Healthy bro.

Ahsante kwa Tag, nimeona hapo.
But this does neither proves nor disputes anything. It is simply vague my friend.
Very unprofessional and the nexus being to vindicate the Hutus and placing an Iron wedge to a peaceful compromise in a war torn state.

Legally speaking,
Sporadic violence does not meet the required threshold to say that Burundi is a Non-International Armed Conflict or A Civil War as you may term it.
The best professional term compatible for the Burundi situation is Protracted Violence.
So i don't buy this argument.

Hereinafter the Article speaks of Genocide without proof of Genocidal Intent.
Its very hard to prove that there is a genocidal intent. Even international Tribunals/Courts are succumbed by troubles when proving genocidal intent.
The vagueness comes when the Article speaks of Genocide in a Civil war between the two major Burundian tribes. If there is a war how can there be genocide??
Very Paradoxical and incoherent.

Therefore the Author speaks of likelihood of genocide without actual materialization.
I understand his concern but, preemptive judgement and inert speculation doomed Iraq and Afghanistan.
Lets treat the Burundi facts different from those of Rwanda; the only similarity is Tribal issues.

Now see how funny you are my friend.
When we speak of Systematic or widespread attacks against a Civilian property and population; we simply prove mutatis mutandis of Crimes Against Humanity as stipulated Under the Rome Statute.
Genocide doesn't fit here.

Remember the concept of State Sovereignty as The Monte Video Convention of 1933 speak about.
No sovereign state is to be interfered in her domestic affairs. There is a Legitimate government in Burundi unless you tell me otherwise.

Lol… huku bwana tunaenda mwendo wa Kagame, yani kulala ni 4hrs maximally! We know we are lagging behind in many things… unlike you guys living in a fantasy world… some of your comrades Bukyanagandi , Maziku Masunga Jr. and many others go even far by suggesting Tanzania is a "super power" I always get difficulties to understand these lunatics, simply because; they never come with any fact to support their 'dreams'! What we can all agree is how blessed that country is; in terms of natural resources which you never sweat to get!
back to the point! My friend most of the time, "if you have already noted", I bring so many provocative articles here to see who will touch it and start debating on the issues… to calm your temper, and for you to understand me better, just consider me as your fellow Tanzanian! if Tanzania allowed dual citizenship, right now I would be proudly calling myself a Rwandan-Tanzanian "Naturalization by nature & by birth!" You see?
tatizo la some of you guys mnajifanya mnawajuwa warundi kumbe la! mambo ya warundi hayaitaji kufikiria saaaana kama unavyotaka iwe! Yalimuumiza sana kichwa mzee wetu Mchonga, tena kipindi hicho viongozi wao washenzi waliokwenda pale Arusha walitia haibu hadi Nyerere(RIP) akaona noma mbele za watu kama kina Mandela(RIP) na Clinton… ilifika kipindi ikawa kero, Buyoya na wahuni wenzake wakaanza propaganda kule Burundi eti amani ya kweli haiwezi kupatikana kwa sababu eti msuluhishi ni MHUTU(Nyerere) unaona? kipindi kile walikuwa wamejawa na ukabila yani mpaka basi… najuwa Arusha haikuwa perfect lakini iliwapa amani kwa miaka Zaidi ya kumi, kwa warundi wenyewe ni kama vile kitabu kinachofwatia Bible!
You must be a politician to come up with such distasteful comments, to put it simple, I am a technician and I detest the behavior exposed by some of you politicians, for example instead of coming up with your ideas on how to solve the Burundi crisis, you are busy attacking the writer, while you pretend to know better… believe me, it won’t help my friend! innocent people continue to be killed as I am writing...
I posted that video earlier just to show you how legitimate Nkurunziza government is and how it all started in Burundi! As you have seen it by yourself, those opposition members are actually FNL members (former FDRL allies in jungles of DRC) jMali that can tell you how events in Burundi are evolving very fast and we don’t know what will happen next morning… if Nkurunziza will succeed to ethnicize his third term craziness then another Rwanda is on the way… why? let me again challenge you with the facts… militias IMBONERAKURE vyuma just like INTERAHAMWE are trained and armed, MPs are telling their constituents to work (gukora) the same word used in Rwanda… again, just last week, another senior advisor to Nkurunziza was criticizing those who call Gen-Maj Ndayirukiye a hero, asking where was he when Hutu were massacred in the 70s… these gibberish and arming thugs lead to Genocide MALCOM LUMUMBA Genocide is possible even in the times of war… when leaders are demonizing one group and calling others to "work" against others, then... A Murder at Number 48, From Our Own Correspondent Podcast - BBC Radio 4

 

[mchambawima1]

Mchambawima, nimekushauri mara nyingi sana, achana na warundi watayamaliza wenyewe. Nkurunziza anakunyima raha, hupati usingizi kwa ajili yake, una chuki kubwa sana juu yake, lakini huna la kumfanya!Si wewe wala rais wako mwenye ubavu wa kumtikisa Nkurunziza, mwishowe mtakufa kwa kihoro. Burundi ni nchi huru, hayo majeshi yako ya AU hayana nafasi Burundi.Na hizo propaganda zenu za genocide, zitaishia hukohuko Rwanda.

ni muhimu sana kutoa mchango kusudi msiloge watanzania wasiojuwa kinachoendelea kama kina MALCOM LUMUMBA wakija kuwasuruhisha tena kule Arusha, waje wanajuwa fika ushenzi wa baadhi ya wanasiasa wenu, wanao weka ukabila mbele na kutojali maslahi ya nchi na wananchi wao Bukyanagandi

 

[mchambawima1]

haya jamani! chuki pembeni... kila siku ooh mchambawima1 anajifanya mambo ya Burundi yanamuuma sana, mara sijuwi ni mnafiki mara nini mara nini... OK! samahani, nawaonya wenye roho nyepesi wasitazame hii video... imepitishwa jana kwenye TV ya wafaransa France3TV MALCOM LUMUMBA , Bukyanagandi , vyuma

 

[mchambawima1]

this is what Burundians witness in the morning when their loved ones are taken for interrogation by "their own police officers" MALCOM LUMUMBA , while Bukyanagandi is high fiving with his IMBONERAKURE friends vyuma

 

[vyuma]

haya jamani! chuki pembeni... kila siku ooh mchambawima1 anajifanya mambo ya Burundi yanamuuma sana, mara sijuwi ni mnafiki mara nini mara nini... OK! samahani, nawaonya wenye roho nyepesi wasitazame hii video... imepitishwa jana kwenye TV ya wafaransa France3TV MALCOM LUMUMBA , Bukyanagandi , vyuma

Brother you don't have to bring here Nigerian vudeos! Man,, can't you even hear their intonation? Why are you always spoiling the image of Burundi as well as her leaders? What exactly do you need from burundians?

 

[jMali]

this is what Burundians witness in the morning when their loved ones are taken for interrogation by "their own police officers" MALCOM LUMUMBA , while Bukyanagandi is high fiving with his IMBONERAKURE friends vyuma

Yeah right, kwa sababu polisi wa Burundi hawana akili wanachukua watu wazi wazi halafu kesho yake wanawatupa mtaani kama hivyo, halafu wachambawima mkishapiga picha na kuziweka instagram, wanarudi tena kuziondoa maiti, ndivyo unavyotaka tuamini au? Lengo lao litakuwa nini?
Hata iddi amin pamoja na ukatili wake alikuwa akiua watu anatupa maiti ziwa victoria, unadhani Nkurunziza chizi apambe maiti barabarani? Hatudanganyiki!

Kwanza wahanga wa namna hii ni wachache kuliko wale wahanga wa mabomu ya hovyo hovyo, risasi masokoni, askari polisi waliouwawa, wanajeshi waliouawa etc. Katika watu 200 (my last statistic), zaidi ya 150 walikuwa ni wahanga wa hayo mashambulizi ya watu 'wasiojulikana'. Kwa nini picha hizo wewe huna na wala huwa hazipatikani mtandaoni? Kwa nini Nkurunzinza asiweke maiti zile za wengi lakini aweke hizi barabarani? Itakuwaje ukose picha za maiti za majority lakini uzipate hizi za hawa wawili watatu?

 

[mchambawima1]

Yeah right, kwa sababu polisi wa Burundi hawana akili wanachukua watu wazi wazi halafu kesho yake wanawatupa mtaani kama hivyo, halafu wachambawima mkishapiga picha na kuziweka instagram, wanarudi tena kuziondoa maiti, ndivyo unavyotaka tuamini au? Lengo lao litakuwa nini?
Hata iddi amin pamoja na ukatili wake alikuwa akiua watu anatupa maiti ziwa victoria, unadhani Nkurunziza chizi apambe maiti barabarani? Hatudanganyiki!

Kwanza wahanga wa namna hii ni wachache kuliko wale wahanga wa mabomu ya hovyo hovyo, risasi masokoni, askari polisi waliouwawa, wanajeshi waliouawa etc. Katika watu 200 (my last statistic), zaidi ya 150 walikuwa ni wahanga wa hayo mashambulizi ya watu 'wasiojulikana'. Kwa nini picha hizo wewe huna na wala huwa hazipatikani mtandaoni? Kwa nini Nkurunzinza asiweke maiti zile za wengi lakini aweke hizi barabarani? Itakuwaje ukose picha za maiti za majority lakini uzipate hizi za hawa wawili watatu?

intimidation tactics za Nkurumbi ni balaa! anawatoa majumbani kwao wakiwa wazima na kurudisha maiti mbele ya milango yao kama funzo kwa wote! noma...

 

[mchambawima1]

Brother you don't have to bring here Nigerian vudeos! Man,, can't you even hear their intonation? Why are you always spoiling the image of Burundi as well as her leaders? What exactly do you need from burundians?

we badala ya kuanza kuhangaikia uraia huko ulipo ndio kwanza unamtetea Nkurunziza alikufanya ukimbie... au ndio nyie mliotumwa kwenda kuuwa ndugu zenu makambini? huyo mnigeria ni comment tu lakini hao ni ndugu zako IMBONERAKURE na imepitishwa juzi na France3tv ya ufaransa... kazi kwenu

 

[vyuma]

we badala ya kuanza kuhangaikia uraia huko ulipo ndio kwanza unamtetea Nkurunziza alikufanya ukimbie... au ndio nyie mliotumwa kwenda kuuwa ndugu zenu makambini? huyo mnigeria ni comment tu lakini hao ni ndugu zako IMBONERAKURE na imepitishwa juzi na France3tv ya ufaransa... kazi kwenu

Tell your brother paka not to support the hurrigans in Burundi. Huwezi kila siku kujifanya unalalamikia kilichopo Burundi ilhali wewe na kaka yako ndio chanzo cha yote hayo.

 

[Koba]

Tell your brother paka not to support the hurrigans in Burundi. Huwezi kila siku kujifanya unalalamikia kilichopo Burundi ilhali wewe na kaka yako ndio chanzo cha yote hayo.

Typical stupid interahamwe mnavunja katiba then mnakimbilia kulaumu Kigali,ukabila na mauaji ndio mnachojua tuu....French keyboard imekuumbua bastard interahamwe

 

[Koba]

Yeah right, kwa sababu polisi wa Burundi hawana akili wanachukua watu wazi wazi halafu kesho yake wanawatupa mtaani kama hivyo, halafu wachambawima mkishapiga picha na kuziweka instagram, wanarudi tena kuziondoa maiti, ndivyo unavyotaka tuamini au? Lengo lao litakuwa nini?
Hata iddi amin pamoja na ukatili wake alikuwa akiua watu anatupa maiti ziwa victoria, unadhani Nkurunziza chizi apambe maiti barabarani? Hatudanganyiki!

Kwanza wahanga wa namna hii ni wachache kuliko wale wahanga wa mabomu ya hovyo hovyo, risasi masokoni, askari polisi waliouwawa, wanajeshi waliouawa etc. Katika watu 200 (my last statistic), zaidi ya 150 walikuwa ni wahanga wa hayo mashambulizi ya watu 'wasiojulikana'. Kwa nini picha hizo wewe huna na wala huwa hazipatikani mtandaoni? Kwa nini Nkurunzinza asiweke maiti zile za wengi lakini aweke hizi barabarani? Itakuwaje ukose picha za maiti za majority lakini uzipate hizi za hawa wawili watatu?

Video is self explanatory lakini kwa mliyofanya 94 nini cha kushangaza ulichoandika,sad thing ni mbuzi wa humu JF wanaokupa support maana we know wewe ni more than mnyama,dawa yenu ni moja tuu kuwasafisha

 

[Koba]

Ndugu yangu Mchambawima bado tu hujalala bado?
Yote hii ni Nkhurunzinza anye kunyima usingizi?
Afya yako itadorora na mimi sipendi ufike huko.
Please live Healthy bro.

Ahsante kwa Tag, nimeona hapo.
But this does neither proves nor disputes anything. It is simply vague my friend.
Very unprofessional and the nexus being to vindicate the Hutus and placing an Iron wedge to a peaceful compromise in a war torn state.

Legally speaking,
Sporadic violence does not meet the required threshold to say that Burundi is a Non-International Armed Conflict or A Civil War as you may term it.
The best professional term compatible for the Burundi situation is Protracted Violence.
So i don't buy this argument.

Hereinafter the Article speaks of Genocide without proof of Genocidal Intent.
Its very hard to prove that there is a genocidal intent. Even international Tribunals/Courts are succumbed by troubles when proving genocidal intent.
The vagueness comes when the Article speaks of Genocide in a Civil war between the two major Burundian tribes. If there is a war how can there be genocide??
Very Paradoxical and incoherent.

Therefore the Author speaks of likelihood of genocide without actual materialization.
I understand his concern but, preemptive judgement and inert speculation doomed Iraq and Afghanistan.
Lets treat the Burundi facts different from those of Rwanda; the only similarity is Tribal issues.

Now see how funny you are my friend.
When we speak of Systematic or widespread attacks against a Civilian property and population; we simply prove mutatis mutandis of Crimes Against Humanity as stipulated Under the Rome Statute.
Genocide doesn't fit here.

Remember the concept of State Sovereignty as The Monte Video Convention of 1933 speak about.
No sovereign state is to be interfered in her domestic affairs. There is a Legitimate government in Burundi unless you tell me otherwise.

Just watch the video and i cant believe kama unaweza kuwatetea hawa watu...you must be one of then

 

[Koba]

we badala ya kuanza kuhangaikia uraia huko ulipo ndio kwanza unamtetea Nkurunziza alikufanya ukimbie... au ndio nyie mliotumwa kwenda kuuwa ndugu zenu makambini? huyo mnigeria ni comment tu lakini hao ni ndugu zako IMBONERAKURE na imepitishwa juzi na France3tv ya ufaransa... kazi kwenu

Just watched the video,hawa sio binadamu and is waste of time debating these monsters

 

[vyuma]

Typical stupid interahamwe mnavunja katiba then mnakimbilia kulaumu Kigali,ukabila na mauaji ndio mnachojua tuu....French keyboard imekuumbua bastard interahamwe

Acha matusi we munyamurenge, toa hoja. Jana President Nkurunziza amewaambia wageni wake kutoka UN kuwa Burundi wanayoisikia kwenye media ni tofauti na Burundi watakayoiona wakitembea mitaani. La msingi aliwaambia wamwambie Kagame aache kuivuruga Burundi. Hakuna mrundi atakayelialia kuhusu ushiriki wa Rwanda kwenye vurugu za Burundi. Kazi ya warundi ni kuwasafisha vibaraka wa paka wote Burundi. Hakuna utakaposikia Burundi inaomba msaada wa kuwakarabati wahuni hata ikibidi kumkarabati paka kazi itafanyika.

 

[vyuma]

Typical stupid interahamwe mnavunja katiba then mnakimbilia kulaumu Kigali,ukabila na mauaji ndio mnachojua tuu....French keyboard imekuumbua bastard interahamwe

Katiba gani iliyovurugwa? Urusi, China, Venezuela na Tanzania wanathibitisha kuwa Nkurunziza ni rais halali wa Burundi, iweje wewe, mchambawima na paka ndio mnapuliza tarumbeta eti katiba ya Burundi imekiukwa. Mnamtaka mtutsi mwenzenu Alexis Sinduhije au Hussein Radjabu ndio wawe viongozi wa Burundi lakini mnashindwa kuwashauri wasikimbie uchaguzi. Burundi ya 1972 au 2003 sio ya leo. Mlizoea kupita dirishani ili muwe viongozi, sasa nafasi hiyo haipo! Mtakimbia uchaguzi, warundi watachagua, mtakimbilia propaganda mtaumbuka pia kama mnavyoumbuka leo.