vasco da gamma
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 2, 2014
- 409
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rocket rises from the Gaza Strip during the July 2014 conflict between Israel and Hamas
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A war that caused as many as 2,000 Palestinian casualties and the leveling in some cases of whole neighborhoods as the kind of experience that would lead a terrorist group to think twice before striking Israel again.[FONT=Georgia, Times, serif][/FONT]
Hamas deliberately launched its rockets from densely populated neighborhoods and dug its tunnels underneath mosques and schools as a tactic of maximizing Palestinian deaths it could blame on Israel. While Israel sought to protect its citizens, Hamas sought to use the misery of its people as a way to demonize Israel in the court of international opinion.
You cant have the two arguments. Either Hamas tactics work and the war does not deter them, or Hamas is not deliberately trying to maximize casualties on their own side.
Hamas cannot point to any real tangible benefit from the current war. Its true that Hamas has nothing to show for this politically. Its also true Hamas has not paid a particularly heavy price, except for dead Palestinians, which they are willing to sacrifice.
In 2006, Hezbollah a Shiite fundamentalist political party and militia in southern Lebanon went to war with Israel . In that conflict, Israel bombed the airport in Beirut, the citys southern suburbsm, and Hezbollah positions throughout the south. That war left Hezbollah more hesitant to strike Israel again,
Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which gained ground across the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring, but which is now fighting for its life in Egypt and elsewhere after the military unseated Egypts elected Muslim Brotherhood president, Mohammed Morsi, last year.
Exploiting the regions distaste for Hamas has allowed perhaps Israels greatest political triumph: It has maneuvered Egypt into negotiating Israels side in the peace negotiations. Battling Merkava tanks will likely seem easier than wringing concessions from Egypt, which is obsessed with destroying the Brotherhood and its offshoot, Hamas.
For this reason, Israel prefers Egypts interlocutions to Americas.
Two weeks ago, Secretary of State John Kerry flew to Cairo and Paris in a bid to end the war. Kerry proposed that Qatar and Turkey help with the reconstruction of Gaza and the payment of Hamas civil servants in Gaza in exchange for a ceasefire.
Israel and Egypt instead pressed Hamas to begin disarming in exchange for more reconstruction, dismissing Kerry.
Egypt, most Arab states and even the United States share this basic goal for Hamas, and Washington now seems largely content to consult from the sidelines rather than play a central role. The real negotiations are between the Palestinians and the Egyptians,.
In many ways the war has paused as inconclusively as the one in 2006 did.
The Egyptians and other diplomats in the region, have pressed Hamas to end the construction of tunnels, particularly the tunnels into Israel, which could be used for terrorist attacks later on. In exchange, the Israelis have offered to hold off on what it calls interception missions inside Gaza, or the targeted killing of top Hamas leaders.
But if Hamas were to continue to construct tunnels, Israel is likely to send in ground forces to destroy them. Once they have any intelligence about a tunnel dug into Israel, Israel will use whatever tactic we can to stop it.
In other words, if Hamas does not agree to a peace that Israel believes it needs to keep its people safe, Israel reserves the right to take matters again into its own hands. But at least, Hamas is unlikely to start a new war again like that for several years.