So I'm watching Donald Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention and I'll be damned this guy is the next President of the US. Before you all jump on me, I was one of those thinking he had no chance in hell. And by all means I hope he does not win but its not looking good for Hillary Clinton.
My main thinking was that he is too much of a buffoon and that Americans will see right through his act. And to be fair throughout his campaign he largely lived up to that image. However what I'm seeing tonight is a more polished version of Trump, I'm seeing bullshit dressed up and delivered well enough that if he keeps this up he is going to not only appeal to the crazies but to the uninformed moderates as well.
I always thought that for Clinton to win this election sanity and cooler heads needed to prevail. The moderates were the firewall to end his run, at some point the sane everyday American will wake up and put an end to it all. I'm getting the sense that the Democrats might have overestimated that sanity while also underestimating Trump's ability to pivot to the center-right once the primary was over. I fear this pivot job from Trump and his kids might just be enough to swing it his way. His camp just has to make sure he keeps acting as refined as he seemed today.
His daughter was great and might have just gotten him a few more points with the women, if I were him I would make her as much a focal point of the campaign as any policy idea. She talked about the wage gap and college dept and all these social issues she honestly almost sounded like a Sanders surrogate. His wife was great too barring that plagiarism debacle which is not the worst thing that has come out of his camp so far. He is got the white male vote down by a long way all he needs now is some of that white woman love and boom there it is.
As far as the speech itself it was empty per usual, no specifics on any of the issues he raised, but that's where his kids and his running mate can balance him out. Plus I'm sure he will eventually get more specific, but then again its Trump and with him bravado might be all we get.
The other side of this equation is Clinton and how terrible she is looking right now. The emails thing has been a godsend for Republicans and I'm struggling to see how she can fight it off. Yeah she is not getting charged but the damage has been done, that aside the bigger problem she is suffering is the lack of appeal or charisma. Positive or negative Trump is got a shit ton of appeal and charisma and to the uninformed voter enough pseudo-intellect and bravado might be enough to get them to overlook Clinton. Hoping that Trump will come across as a monster enough for people to vote for you is not a winning strategy
You have a populist on one hand and an uninspiring establishment candidate with a ton of baggage to boot, add to that lower voter turnout on the Democrat side compared to record turnout on the Republican side I would say Hillary is in trouble. Btw Trump has baggage too but his great talent has been to deflect it and make sure nothing sticks to him.
***********************************************************************
According to Google Translator 😉;
Jana usiku nilibahatika kuangalia hotuba ya mgombea uraisi wa marekani Donald Trump kwa wajumbe wa chama cha Republicans. Kwa mtazamo wangu na uelewa wangu mdogo wa siasa za Marekani jamaa anaelekea kushinda uraisi.
Tangu mwanzo sikudhani ana nafasi ya kushinda na bado natumaini hatashinda lakini kwa muonekano wa jana Hillary ana wakati mgumu.
Trump allijitahidi kwa kiasi kikubwa jana kuonyesha utulivu na busara flani kwenye hotuba yake. Tegemeo langu ilikuwa kuwa ujinga wake na kukurupuka kwakwe kungesaidia wamerakani wakawaida kuona kuwa jamaa hafai lakini nina wasi wasi kuwa jamaa ana uwezo mkubwa wa kubadilika kama kinyonga kiasi kwamba hata wapiga kura wenye uelewa wa kawaida watamkubali badala ya wale vilaza tuu.
Wanae na mke wake wameleta busara flani hivi kwenye kampeni zake itamsaidia kupoza hofu za watu waliomuona kama mcharuko hapo mwanzo.
Jambo lingine litakalo msaidia ni udhaifu wa Hillary Clinton, Huyu mama hana mvuto wowote na maskendo juu anayo. Mara email, mara hela za Wall Street, mara Benghazi, vitu vyote hivyo vinamuumiza hata kama vingine ni vya kusingizia. Trump kuwa mbovu siyo sababu ya kutosha tena kwa watu kumpigia kura Hillary inabidi ajipange upya.
My main thinking was that he is too much of a buffoon and that Americans will see right through his act. And to be fair throughout his campaign he largely lived up to that image. However what I'm seeing tonight is a more polished version of Trump, I'm seeing bullshit dressed up and delivered well enough that if he keeps this up he is going to not only appeal to the crazies but to the uninformed moderates as well.
I always thought that for Clinton to win this election sanity and cooler heads needed to prevail. The moderates were the firewall to end his run, at some point the sane everyday American will wake up and put an end to it all. I'm getting the sense that the Democrats might have overestimated that sanity while also underestimating Trump's ability to pivot to the center-right once the primary was over. I fear this pivot job from Trump and his kids might just be enough to swing it his way. His camp just has to make sure he keeps acting as refined as he seemed today.
His daughter was great and might have just gotten him a few more points with the women, if I were him I would make her as much a focal point of the campaign as any policy idea. She talked about the wage gap and college dept and all these social issues she honestly almost sounded like a Sanders surrogate. His wife was great too barring that plagiarism debacle which is not the worst thing that has come out of his camp so far. He is got the white male vote down by a long way all he needs now is some of that white woman love and boom there it is.
As far as the speech itself it was empty per usual, no specifics on any of the issues he raised, but that's where his kids and his running mate can balance him out. Plus I'm sure he will eventually get more specific, but then again its Trump and with him bravado might be all we get.
The other side of this equation is Clinton and how terrible she is looking right now. The emails thing has been a godsend for Republicans and I'm struggling to see how she can fight it off. Yeah she is not getting charged but the damage has been done, that aside the bigger problem she is suffering is the lack of appeal or charisma. Positive or negative Trump is got a shit ton of appeal and charisma and to the uninformed voter enough pseudo-intellect and bravado might be enough to get them to overlook Clinton. Hoping that Trump will come across as a monster enough for people to vote for you is not a winning strategy
You have a populist on one hand and an uninspiring establishment candidate with a ton of baggage to boot, add to that lower voter turnout on the Democrat side compared to record turnout on the Republican side I would say Hillary is in trouble. Btw Trump has baggage too but his great talent has been to deflect it and make sure nothing sticks to him.
***********************************************************************
According to Google Translator 😉;
Jana usiku nilibahatika kuangalia hotuba ya mgombea uraisi wa marekani Donald Trump kwa wajumbe wa chama cha Republicans. Kwa mtazamo wangu na uelewa wangu mdogo wa siasa za Marekani jamaa anaelekea kushinda uraisi.
Tangu mwanzo sikudhani ana nafasi ya kushinda na bado natumaini hatashinda lakini kwa muonekano wa jana Hillary ana wakati mgumu.
Trump allijitahidi kwa kiasi kikubwa jana kuonyesha utulivu na busara flani kwenye hotuba yake. Tegemeo langu ilikuwa kuwa ujinga wake na kukurupuka kwakwe kungesaidia wamerakani wakawaida kuona kuwa jamaa hafai lakini nina wasi wasi kuwa jamaa ana uwezo mkubwa wa kubadilika kama kinyonga kiasi kwamba hata wapiga kura wenye uelewa wa kawaida watamkubali badala ya wale vilaza tuu.
Wanae na mke wake wameleta busara flani hivi kwenye kampeni zake itamsaidia kupoza hofu za watu waliomuona kama mcharuko hapo mwanzo.
Jambo lingine litakalo msaidia ni udhaifu wa Hillary Clinton, Huyu mama hana mvuto wowote na maskendo juu anayo. Mara email, mara hela za Wall Street, mara Benghazi, vitu vyote hivyo vinamuumiza hata kama vingine ni vya kusingizia. Trump kuwa mbovu siyo sababu ya kutosha tena kwa watu kumpigia kura Hillary inabidi ajipange upya.