Sammuel999
JF-Expert Member
- Jun 1, 2016
- 3,481
- 2,346
To determine if SGR debt is unsustainable I try
to figure out how much has to be payed
annually.
Semi concessional loan: $1.6 billion
Interest rate: 2% or $32 million (total $640
million)
Grace period: 2014-2021
Maturity: 2034
Annual payments 2014-2021: $32 million
(total $224 millions)
Annual payments 2022-2034: $155 million
(total $2.015 billions)
Commercial loan: $ 1.633 billions
Interest rate: 6 month-LIBOR+3.6%: $73.5
million (in total $1.1 billion)
Grace period: 2014-2019
Maturity: 2029
Annual payments at current 6 month LIBOR
(0.9%) 2014-2019: $73.5 million ($367.5
million)
Annual payments at current 6 month LIBOR
(0.9%) 2020-2029: $236.8 million ($2.368
billion in total)
Insurance for commercial loan: 6.93% -
Maturity 2017 - Annual payments 2014-2017:
$37.72 million (in total 113.17 million)
Total annual payments:
2014-2017 - $143.0 million (total: $429.66
million)
2018-2019 - $105.5 million (total: $211
million)
2020-2021 - $268.8 million (total: $537.6
million)
2022-2029 - $391.8 million (total: $3,134.4
million)
2030-2034 - $155.0 million (total: $775
million)
Total repayable sum 2014-2034: $5.1 billion.
Tax revenue 2014/2015: $10 billion
Annual payments as percentage of low-case
tax revenues:
2014-2017 - 1.43%
2018-2019 - 1.055%
2020-2021 - 2.688%
2022-2029 - 3.918%
2030-2034 - 1.55%
Conclusion: Even if growth of tax revenues
remains flat throughout the payment period
Kenya would never have to pay more then 4%
of its annual revenues to settle its outstanding
debt with China Eximbank. To me this looks
quite sustainable especially taken into
consideration that tax revenue grew 15%
annually between 2005 and 2015 .
KRA collects 18bn$ annually figure that could reach 25bn$ by 2023-2025
And 40bn$ annually by 2030 assuming ZERO MINERAL DISCOVERED ZERO TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT AND ZERO INCREASE IN POPULATION GROWTH
to figure out how much has to be payed
annually.
Semi concessional loan: $1.6 billion
Interest rate: 2% or $32 million (total $640
million)
Grace period: 2014-2021
Maturity: 2034
Annual payments 2014-2021: $32 million
(total $224 millions)
Annual payments 2022-2034: $155 million
(total $2.015 billions)
Commercial loan: $ 1.633 billions
Interest rate: 6 month-LIBOR+3.6%: $73.5
million (in total $1.1 billion)
Grace period: 2014-2019
Maturity: 2029
Annual payments at current 6 month LIBOR
(0.9%) 2014-2019: $73.5 million ($367.5
million)
Annual payments at current 6 month LIBOR
(0.9%) 2020-2029: $236.8 million ($2.368
billion in total)
Insurance for commercial loan: 6.93% -
Maturity 2017 - Annual payments 2014-2017:
$37.72 million (in total 113.17 million)
Total annual payments:
2014-2017 - $143.0 million (total: $429.66
million)
2018-2019 - $105.5 million (total: $211
million)
2020-2021 - $268.8 million (total: $537.6
million)
2022-2029 - $391.8 million (total: $3,134.4
million)
2030-2034 - $155.0 million (total: $775
million)
Total repayable sum 2014-2034: $5.1 billion.
Tax revenue 2014/2015: $10 billion
Annual payments as percentage of low-case
tax revenues:
2014-2017 - 1.43%
2018-2019 - 1.055%
2020-2021 - 2.688%
2022-2029 - 3.918%
2030-2034 - 1.55%
Conclusion: Even if growth of tax revenues
remains flat throughout the payment period
Kenya would never have to pay more then 4%
of its annual revenues to settle its outstanding
debt with China Eximbank. To me this looks
quite sustainable especially taken into
consideration that tax revenue grew 15%
annually between 2005 and 2015 .
KRA collects 18bn$ annually figure that could reach 25bn$ by 2023-2025
And 40bn$ annually by 2030 assuming ZERO MINERAL DISCOVERED ZERO TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT AND ZERO INCREASE IN POPULATION GROWTH
