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Poll of polls; mjumuisho wa tafiti

Discussion in 'Uchaguzi Tanzania' started by Luteni, Oct 12, 2010.

  1. Luteni

    Luteni JF-Expert Member

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    The table below displays data from ten key polls in the run-up to the 2010 general election. You can follow the link to track the average results and select each poll to view the data in more detail

    .........................TOPS..TCIB...REDET..Synovate....JF....M/Halisi....CACT..M/nchi....DNews...UWT...AV %

    Jakaya Kikwete.....19.......41.......71..........61........23.......08.........12........23........18........48.....32.4%

    Willibrod Slaa........75......45.......12..........16.........68.......87........73.........71.......77........52.....57.6%

    Ibrahim Lipumba....03......10.......10..........05.........03.......04.........09........05........02........00.....05.1%

    Others................03......04........07.........18.........06.......01.........06........01........03........00.....04.9%


    UPDATES 15 Oct 10
     
  2. Safari_ni_Safari

    Safari_ni_Safari JF-Expert Member

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    Many Thanks Mkuu
     
  3. hashycool

    hashycool JF-Expert Member

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    "It is dangerous for a national candidate to say things that people might remember."
     
  4. Luteni

    Luteni JF-Expert Member

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    Asante SnS, nitaendelea kukusanya poll zingine ambazo sijapata data zake na kuziweka pamoja. Poll of polls hutumika kupunguza lawama za upendeleo kutoka sehemu zinazosigana.
     
  5. Njilembera

    Njilembera JF-Expert Member

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    Aisee Luteni umejiandaa sawasawa, haki ya nani utanyimwa ulinzi na mh...oh kumbe amelazwa!!! Basi!

    This is interesting, this is statistics par excellence! That we collaborate the evidnces from all sides, the likes and the dislikes and the average is certainly the most probable au siyo.

    Luteni just before seeing your workings, I was working on the figures at JF and I realized between 4th-12th October 2010, 362 votes were cast, out of these 186 went to Dr Slaa and 166 to JMKikwete (PhD) which gave them the ratings 68.62% and 21.92% respectively. I was then wondering what might have happened. I had anticipated there will be more of the JK Supporteres ( of course doing triple regs) and more votes therefore. But this was not the case, Slaa was still leading in terms of new acquisitions althought the overall seems like he is going down. But now I know what has happened. The kind of Omariyas and MS got confident in the Redet and Synovate Poll Results that they could not care the less what was happening here.

    It seems to me that a lot of support is in wait for Dr Slaa. He is the winner, and the Chadema's guess of around 50% is probably to be proven. VIVA TZ, and let me keep my hands in where they should be, I cannot trust than monster any more than I have ever done before.
     
  6. zumbemkuu

    zumbemkuu JF Bronze Member

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    thanx mkuu.

    MSIOJUA NA MJUE SASA, NA KAMA HAMTAKI KUJUA TUTAWALAZIMISHA KUJUA, WAPELEKEENI SALAM NA CCM NAO WAJUE KUWA CHADEMA NA DR.SLAA (PHd) WAPO JUU, HABARI NDO HIYO
     
  7. Augustine Moshi

    Augustine Moshi JF-Expert Member

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    Asante sana Luteni kwa mchango huu.

    Mie nashauri huu WASTANI WA KURA ZA MAONI uzungumziwe na CHADEMA kila itakapopatikana nafasi kwenye redio na TV, na uwekwe kwenye magazeti, hata ikibidi kama advertisement.
     
  8. kmp

    kmp Member

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    Many many thanks for this useful analysis mkuu!!!
     
  9. Ng'wanangwa

    Ng'wanangwa JF-Expert Member

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    REDET inaongozwa na vilaza. Hawajawahi fikiria kuhusu hili.
     
  10. Sir R

    Sir R JF-Expert Member

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    Ahsante Luteni,

    Naomba ucheki polls za gazeti la majira, mwanahalisi, redio free Africa then uwashawishi magazeti ya raia mwema na mwanahalisi watoe kwenye front page.
     
  11. Invisible

    Invisible Admin Staff Member

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    Mkuu nimekukubali
     
  12. kiraia

    kiraia JF Gold Member

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    JF mwisho wa matatizo no bias, Naomba habari leo (Gazeti la Umma) kesho watoe wastani wa kura zote za maoni.
     
  13. QUALITY

    QUALITY JF-Expert Member

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  14. Luteni

    Luteni JF-Expert Member

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    Sir R

    Web ya gazeti la Majira haifunguki kama una hard copy niwekee hapa, Mwana halisi nimeshaweka data zao (M/halisi), Redio Free Africa ndiyo nimepata data zao hizi HAPA | Radio Free Africa nitaziunganisha thanx.
     
  15. Luteni

    Luteni JF-Expert Member

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    Shukurani Invisible. Najua wengi huwa wanahoji poll fulani siyo scientific lakini mimi naamini data ambazo hazijafikishwa maofisini na kuchezewa(raw data) ndizo more scientific, ukianza kuzichezea data ili upate normal distribution unazitoa kwenye uhalisia wake zinakuwa artficial data ambazo ndizo wengi tunaziita za kisayansi.
     
  16. M

    Mkulima JF-Expert Member

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    Hata mimi nimemkubali kwa kuchakachua kura za maoni!
     
  17. Rutashubanyuma

    Rutashubanyuma JF-Expert Member

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    Thank you for telling us the truth we all along knew
     
  18. Luteni

    Luteni JF-Expert Member

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    A poll is a poll hata ifanyike kwa kunyosha mkono, mkulima akihesabu ng'ombe wake akakuambia ana majike 30 na madume 50 utakataa na kumwambia poll yake siyo scientific.
     
  19. Iza

    Iza JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu
    Natanguliza heshima kwa Avatar yako...
     
  20. sijui nini

    sijui nini JF-Expert Member

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    acahana nae KIDADADEKI huyo...roho inamuuma kupata ukweli baada ya kupewa faraja za uongo na kina REDET... Hii inaonyesha dhahiri ukweli wa mambo...Big Up kwa sana Luteni!!
     
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