Something interesting to share: Let me from the outset say that I believe in the Steadman polls. I said it during the referendum, when Kibaki was leading and even today. Having said that, these polls don't give the whole story and the reason is simple. In the USA, as I said here a while ago, a candidate has to win a majority of the 538 electoral college votes (270) to be declared president. He doesn't need to win the popular vote as is the case with Al Gore in 2000. He won the popular vote by 500,000 but a few days ago, he won an even bigger prize. IN Kenya, you need to win 25% of 5/8 of all the provinces alongside the popular vote. What has baffled ODM according to these Steadman polls is that Kibaki had 25% in 7/8 of all the provinces with the exclusion of Nyanza of course. Back to my prediction. This election will be VERY CLOSE NO MATTER WHO WINS. To begin with, I'll make three assumptions which will set the context in which the elections will be held; 1. Kalonzo joins ODM. Kibaki's goose is cooked.....political goose that is. THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL NOT HAPPEN. 2. Kalonzo joins PNU. Whereas this is probable, it is not possible but were it to happen, Kibaki wins. 3. Things remain the way they are. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. So, what happens then? In 2002, the turnout was about 56%. There were 10 million registered voters and about 5.6 million valid votes cast.According to the ECK, there are 14.2 registered voters today. Assuming that there'll be a heavy turnout, let's say 70%, and further assuming that all votes will be valid, there'll be about 10 million votes for the three presidential candidates. Let me also say something else. Kenya's voting is tribal. IT is just true and my prediction will have some of this tribal nonsense because that is how we vote. ================================================== ======= Here we go: I'll begin by giving a prediction of each candidates base and then work outwards. Raila Odinga has the LUOs, Kalonzo has the KAMBAS and Kibaki has GEMA. Raila will get about 1.5 million Luo votes. Kalonzo will get 850,000 Kamba votes. Kibaki will get 4.0 million GEMA votes but I'll be conservative and give him 3.5 million. Out of a total of 10 million total votes, they amass 5.85 million votes from their tribesmen leaving 4.15 million votes. These are the votes that make Kibaki and Raila wear the fez and Kanzus while wooing voters. Don't get me wrong, I know there are also GEMA, Luo and Kamba Muslims too but do I say. Out of 4.15 million votes, other presidential candidates among them Muiru get 0.15 million votes leaving exactly 4 million votes to be vied for. Even before dissolving parliament, Kibaki has 25% of the total votes in the bag. 'Ain't that something?' The 4 million votes from places other than their own bases will go like this: Kalonzo will get 600,000. KALONZOs TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL VOTES WILL AMOUNT TO 1.5 MILLION VOTES or 15% of total votes cast. That leaves 3.4 million votes for Raila and Kibaki. IN other words, Raila and Kibaki are running for 3.4 million votes while at the same time; 1. maintaining their stronghold votes and 2. Turning out their kinsmen in droves to go vote. To use the latest steadman polls, I'll give Raila 53% of the total votes. Infact, I'll be generous and give him 60% of the non GEMA, non Luo and non Kamba votes. 60% of 3.4 million votes is 2.0 million. Therefore, Raila gets a total of 3.5 million total votes. Remember, Kibaki had 3.5 million votes in 2002 with that massive NARC coalition and Uhuru had about 1.6 million votes. Total valid votes cast: 10 million. Kalonzos total votes: 1.5 million Raila's total votes 3.5 million. Do the maths. Figures and facts don't lie. Kibaki gets 4.85 million votes. Five more years!!!!!!!!!! Mwai Kibaki:........................... 4.85million Raila Odinga: ..........................3.50million Kalonzo Musyoka....................1.5 million Others:......................................0.15 millon ------------- Total valid votes cast...............10 million -------------- And everyone will scream murder murder Kibaki has rigged and there's no way he was going to win.Now, I know ODM will come out screaming ati everyone is defecting to ODM but so what? Kenyans aren't fools. They know what Kibaki has done and this kitu is secret ballot. See you in 2008 January and please keep this prediction and remind me when the votes are out.