The Worst Case Scenario - iliyogeuka kweli uchaguzi mkuu

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Let us do some brainstorming on the worst case scenario given certain possible situations in Tanzania:

CASE 1:

- CCM loses in Zanzibar to CUF. CUF decide to change the name of the government and remove any reference to "Revolution". Decide to take some initiatives to expand the autonomy of Zanzibar. What is the reaction of the United Government?


CASE 2:

- CCM retains za Zanzibar's Presidency but loses the House of Representatives to CUF which gets the majority. HoR now passes laws which leads to more autonomy of Zanzibar. How does the President (Zanzibar's) reacts?

CASE 3:

- Kikwete decide NOT to run for second term in 2010. What happens to CCM?

CASE 4:

- Kikwete still RUNS but a contender emerges from CCM. He/She is more popular and promise extensive reform in the Party and the govt. He/she acknowledges the failure of the party to lead the country and promises real change. He gets followers and a backing from within and without. How DOES JK reacts to the challenge?

CASE 5:

- The elections results are delayed; initial results shows the main opposition candidate has done unexpectedly well. The outcome is almost midway divided. In fact, it points to a suprise win by an opposition. NEC hurry to declare Kikwete the winner; in the middle of the night he hurried to be sworn in. HOW does the opposition reacts?


CASE 6:

- Following the disputed elections, violence erupts. Manzese is burning so is Mabatini, Magomeni, Mwanjelwa, Makorola, Moshi Mjini, Mwanza mjini, and Zanzibar in the third day 70 people are dead, 200 wounded and rising. Violence seems not to be ending. The international community is shocked, the opposition leader is not surrendering. Big demonstrations are called towards Magogoni. How does the the just sworn in President reacts? How do we resolve the situation? Especially when the President applies Emergency Powers ( as per 1984 Laws). The media is curbed, journalists detained, marshal laws declared but not obeyed.

How do we resolve the impasse?

Pick any, some or all the cases and give me ur worst case scenario.

 

[Jasusi]

Mwanakijiji,
Ile scenario ya kwanza jibu lake rahisi. Zanzibar hawana jeshi.

 

[Pascal Mayalla]

Confucius, Socrates na Plato wote walianzia kwenye Utopia wakaweka maandishi leo wanaheshimika na maandiko yao ni heshima mbele. MMKJJ keep imagining the scenario, yatakapotokea ndipo heshima mbele itafuatia, mambo mengine ni pre-amonition- pre-cognition au just imagination.
Thanks for 'food for thought'

 

[Zing]

hahhahaha why dont you call them the best case scenario. Are they worse to you?No 4 is the best case scenario or whatever you may refer it. and that is what the so called father of the nation predicted.

 

[Rev. Kishoka]

Mwanakijiji,

All the scenarios have same answer: CCM will win by crooks and crooks!

 

[Game Theory]

Mwanakijiji,

All the scenarios have same answer: CCM will win by crooks and crooks!

END THREAD
case closed!

atakayeendelea kutaka kuleta mjadala kwenye hili atakuwa anafuta sifa tuu

 

[SMU]

CASE 5:

- The elections results are delayed; initial results shows the main opposition candidate has done unexpectedly well. The outcome is almost midway divided. In fact, it points to a suprise win by an opposition. NEC hurry to declare Kikwete the winner; in the middle of the night he hurried to be sworn in. HOW does the opposition reacts?

Kikwete and the opposition (say Mbowe!) reluctantly agree to form a coalition government and then......
.........Ban Ki Moon anampelekea bahasha Okampo yenye orodha ya majina ya 'wahalifu'. Kikwete na wenzie wanahangaika kujaribu kuform Truth and Reconcilliation Commission!

 

[Game Theory]

ohoooo

 

[MwanaFalsafa1]

CASE 1:

- CCM loses in Zanzibar to CUF. CUF decide to change the name of the government and remove any reference to "Revolution". Decide to take some initiatives to expand the autonomy of Zanzibar. What is the reaction of the United Government?

The Union government will still hold an upper hand. Most of the resources, authority and bureaucracy lies within the Union government. Labda hiyo serikali ya Z'bar itake kuexpand autonomy kinguvu ila kwa kufuata legal procedures it means the Union gov'nment must be involved.

CASE 2:

- CCM retains za Zanzibar's Presidency but loses the House of Representatives to CUF which gets the majority. HoR now passes laws which leads to more autonomy of Zanzibar. How does the President (Zanzibar's) reacts?

Katika mfumo wa nchi hii it is very hard for one party to control the government and the other to control the presidency. Katiba requires that the majority party form the gov'ment so hata CCM wakishinda uraisi in this case CUF still gets the ministerial posts which means basically ni serikali ya CUF.

CASE 3:

- Kikwete decide NOT to run for second term in 2010. What happens to CCM?

Kikwete needs CCM more than CCM needs him. CCM can easily find a replacement to run for presidency. Tukumbuke pia Tanzania wengi wana piga kura kwa kuangalia chama na si mgombea. As long as CCM stills holds the advantage it has today they can sell any candidate.

CASE 4:

- Kikwete still RUNS but a contender emerges from CCM. He/She is more popular and promise extensive reform in the Party and the govt. He/she acknowledges the failure of the party to lead the country and promises real change. He gets followers and a backing from within and without. How DOES JK reacts to the challenge?

This will be good for Tanzanian democracy and a really embarrassing defeat for Kikwete. Maybe he could form another party and run for president but as it stands Kikwete is not very popular and it would be hard for a none CCM Kikwete to win. Kikwete might try to pull upa fight but yata mkuta kama yaliyo mkuta Mbeki.

CASE 5:

- The elections results are delayed; initial results shows the main opposition candidate has done unexpectedly well. The outcome is almost midway divided. In fact, it points to a suprise win by an opposition. NEC hurry to declare Kikwete the winner; in the middle of the night he hurried to be sworn in. HOW does the opposition reacts?

The opposition having held no major gov'ment post before they would probably give in when Kikwete offers them the prime minister post. Yale yale ya Kenya. I doubt if any of our opposition leaders would refuse the chance to at least be prime minister and they would probably say to themselves that they have a good chance of winning the next election where there would be no incumbent.

CASE 6:

- Following the disputed elections, violence erupts. Manzese is burning so is Mabatini, Magomeni, Mwanjelwa, Makorola, Moshi Mjini, Mwanza mjini, and Zanzibar in the third day 70 people are dead, 200 wounded and rising. Violence seems not to be ending. The international community is shocked, the opposition leader is not surrendering. Big demonstrations are called towards Magogoni. How does the the just sworn in President reacts? How do we resolve the situation? Especially when the President applies Emergency Powers ( as per 1984 Laws). The media is curbed, journalists detained, marshal laws declared but not obeyed.

I doubt it would reach to this point. Sana sana ita end up at scenerio number 5. But if it does happen then I think that would signal the begining of the end for CCM. This situation would be tough to handle & the best I can say is that tuombe Mungu tusifike hatua hii.


I guess natafuta "sifa" kama GT anavyo dai. I just couldn't resist replying to the post......ooh well!

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

The Union government will still hold an upper hand. Most of the resources, authority and bureaucracy lies within the Union government. Labda hiyo serikali ya Z'bar itake kuexpand autonomy kinguvu ila kwa kufuata legal procedures it means the Union gov'nment must be involved.




Katika mfumo wa nchi hii it is very hard for one party to control the government and the other to control the presidency. Katiba requires that the majority party form the gov'ment so hata CCM wakishinda uraisi in this case CUF still gets the ministerial posts which means basically ni serikali ya CUF.



Kikwete needs CCM more than CCM needs him. CCM can easily find a replacement to run for presidency. Tukumbuke pia Tanzania wengi wana piga kura kwa kuangalia chama na si mgombea. As long as CCM stills holds the advantage it has today they can sell any candidate.



This will be good for Tanzanian democracy and a really embarrassing defeat for Kikwete. Maybe he could form another party and run for president but as it stands Kikwete is not very popular and it would be hard for a none CCM Kikwete to win. Kikwete might try to pull upa fight but yata mkuta kama yaliyo mkuta Mbeki.



The opposition having held no major gov'ment post before they would probably give in when Kikwete offers them the prime minister post. Yale yale ya Kenya. I doubt if any of our opposition leaders would refuse the chance to at least be prime minister and they would probably say to themselves that they have a good chance of winning the next election where there would be no incumbent.



I doubt it would reach to this point. Sana sana ita end up at scenerio number 5. But if it does happen then I think that would signal the begining of the end for CCM. This situation would be tough to handle & the best I can say is that tuombe Mungu tusifike hatua hii.


I guess natafuta "sifa" kama GT anavyo dai. I just couldn't resist replying to the post......ooh well!

very good.. I like your take.

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Kikwete and the opposition (say Mbowe!) reluctantly agree to form a coalition government and then......
.........Ban Ki Moon anampelekea bahasha Okampo yenye orodha ya majina ya 'wahalifu'. Kikwete na wenzie wanahangaika kujaribu kuform Truth and Reconcilliation Commission!

mmh.. I like this possibility.

 

[Teamo]

CASE 1:

- CCM loses in Zanzibar to CUF. CUF decide to change the name of the government and remove any reference to "Revolution". Decide to take some initiatives to expand the autonomy of Zanzibar. What is the reaction of the United Government?.

ccm will not accept to loose in zanzibar!practically hawatakubali,na wakikubali basi 'the muungano stori' will mark its ends for nowi still insist ccm will never allow it to happen kama wao tayari wameshinda main land.otherwise,wangekuwa watu wa kukubali hiyo hali,they should have done it in 1995,and 2000

CASE 2:

- CCM retains za Zanzibar's Presidency but loses the House of Representatives to CUF which gets the majority. HoR now passes laws which leads to more autonomy of Zanzibar. How does the President (Zanzibar's) reacts? .

-Hapa ccm wameshapaangalia,ndio maana wamejizatiti at any cost washinde viti mjengoni,IF NOT RAIS ATAPIGIWA 'VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE' and then kila kitu kitakuwa in mess,na cuf watapata wanachodhulumiwa miaka yote

CASE 3:

- Kikwete decide NOT to run for second term in 2010. What happens to CCM? .

hana huo ujasiri huyu mkwere!kitendo cha kuwadhalilisha aliokula nao kabla hajawa rais kwa kuwaburuza kortini, NI KAMPENI TOSHA!wajanja tunajua ni kiini-macho.haiwezi tokea sababu there is no point in that!ikitokea itakuwa mpya na jakaya atajijengea heshima kubwa sana,INGAWA HAWEZI AMUA HIVYO!madaraka mazuri bwana

CASE 4:

- Kikwete still RUNS but a contender emerges from CCM. He/She is more popular and promise extensive reform in the Party and the govt. He/she acknowledges the failure of the party to lead the country and promises real change. He gets followers and a backing from within and without. How DOES JK reacts to the challenge?.

*_________CENSORED____________*

CASE 5:

- The elections results are delayed; initial results shows the main opposition candidate has done unexpectedly well. The outcome is almost midway divided. In fact, it points to a suprise win by an opposition. NEC hurry to declare Kikwete the winner; in the middle of the night he hurried to be sworn in. HOW does the opposition reacts? .

limetokea sana kwenye chaguzi ndogo,lakini kwa akili finyu za watanzania they will not support any complaints from opposition leaders!na wakiambiwa waingie msituni 'watagoma' na dhana yao 'nchi ya amani'!as usual wapinzani watapiga kelele tu yataisha

CASE 6:

- Following the disputed elections, violence erupts. Manzese is burning so is Mabatini, Magomeni, Mwanjelwa, Makorola, Moshi Mjini, Mwanza mjini, and Zanzibar in the third day 70 people are dead, 200 wounded and rising. Violence seems not to be ending. The international community is shocked, the opposition leader is not surrendering. Big demonstrations are called towards Magogoni. How does the the just sworn in President reacts? How do we resolve the situation? Especially when the President applies Emergency Powers ( as per 1984 Laws). The media is curbed, journalists detained, marshal laws declared but not obeyed. .

ikifika hapa basi democrasia itakuwa imekuwa sana tanzania!and what they will do ni 'cut and paste' ya dispute resolution ya kenya!nasisitiza lakini HAITAKAA ITOKEE!

How do we resolve the impasse?

ni ngumu sana kwa sasa mkjj!tatizo vitu vingi hapa bongo havijatokea

 

[Hauxtable]

...every scenario seems to be directly dependent on 'The Constant', the incumbent...sasa mi-nafikiri 'any day above the ground is a new day'...na kwa Tz kati ya sasa na 2010 chochote chaweza kutokea, hivyo basi kubadili/kuadhiri kila scenario kama si zote.
**Mkuu M.M,usisahau 'kijarida' tu chenyewe chaweza tumbua jipu 'usaha' ukatapakaa kila mahala...tuombe uhai tu.

 

[Mkandara]

Mzee Mwanakijiji,
Mkuu umeyapanga vizuri sana na hakika ingekuwa kitu kizito kufikiria kama sisi tungekuwa SIVYO TULIVYO..Bahati mbaya, NDIVYO TULIVYO..

CCM mshindi siku zote! hakuna cha mtu kugombea dhidi ya JK wala utumbo wake..Ukiona nchi inamchagua rais kupitia Popular vote basio ujue hakuna ushindi hata siku moja.. Mshinde bunge lote, rais bado atakuwa JK na atachagua mawaziri wake nje ya wabunge wenu..na mkibisha sana analivunja Bunge -mtamfanya nini sii sheria inamruhusu!

Kinachowezekana ktk worse scenario ni ushindi wa wabunge ktk majimbo lakini sii kiti cha rais... haiwezekani hata kidogo kwa mfumo tuliokuwa nao...CCM wanajua hilo.
Tumeyaona kwa Mugabe na Kibaki..Hivyo tutawaona hawa hawa jamaa wakirudi kwani ushindi wao wanauhitajin.. Mkibish na viongozi wote hawa wamesifiwa na viongozi wa Kiafrika including JK na Mkapa..'Cause that is what supposed to be ktk Kulindana..- Mugabeism ndio rule of law!

 

[Chuma]

Itakuwaje kama Mwanakijiji akirudi Bongo akaingia ktk Real Politics!!!!

 

[Mkandara]

Itakuwaje kama Mwanakijiji akirudi Bongo akaingia ktk Real Politics!!!!

- Lorry la Mkaa toka wapi sijui, litaligonga gari lake akitokea Airport..dereva wa lorry kakimbia, hatapatikana!
-Magazeti yataandika, ajali mbaya yampata mheshimiwa wakati akiandika nukuu za gazeti la kesho - Cheche!
- Mengine jazia!

 

[MwanaFalsafa1]

Itakuwaje kama Mwanakijiji akirudi Bongo akaingia ktk Real Politics!!!!

Hau hitaji kuwa mwanasiasa kuli saidia taifa. Mwanakijiji ana uwezo wa kusema anayo sema kwa sababu yuko nje ya siasa. Nadhani kila mmoja wetu akilitumikia taifa kwa kipaji chake na nafasi yake tutafika. With that said nadhani uamuzi huo ni wa Mwanakijiji so akiamua kugombea he personally has my support. But I feel he can best serve the nation nje ya siasa.

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Itakuwaje kama Mwanakijiji akirudi Bongo akaingia ktk Real Politics!!!!

Itakuwaje ukiacha kufikiria kuwa I'm interested in getting into Bongo's politics!?

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

- Lorry la Mkaa toka wapi sijui, litaligonga gari lake akitokea Airport..dereva wa lorry kakimbia, hatapatikana!
-Magazeti yataandika, ajali mbaya yampata mheshimiwa wakati akiandika nukuu za gazeti la kesho - Cheche!
- Mengine jazia!

now that is worst case scenario in my part.. the best case scenario in Chuma's!

 

[Bongolander]

Let us do some brainstorming on the worst case scenario given certain possible situations in Tanzania:

[
CASE 3:

- Kikwete decide NOT to run for second term in 2010. What happens to CCM?

and promise

If the so called wazee wa taifa will come back to their senses, this is a high probability. And this will give credit to JK. Bila shaka itamfanya aingie kwenye vitabu vya historia. I personally do not call it worst case scenario. I would rather call it west case scenario.