Horseshoe Arch
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 10, 2009
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Ivory Coast is still living with the consequences of its last civil conflict in 2002 which saw the country divided between the government-held south and the rebel-held north. Since then, the U.N. peacekeeping force has policed tensions in the country.
Both sides are being careful about escalating the situation for fear of shouldering the blame and losing what they perceive as the moral high-ground. Neither candidate appears ready to spark a new war.
But as long as the military supports Gbagbo it remains a viable and dangerous option. The concern is a civil war in Ivory Coast will drag in other very vulnerable states in the region -- especially Liberia, whose warlords will likely be courted by Gbagbo to counter official opposition by the Liberian government.
Journalist Francois-Xavier Menage told CNN the loyalty of some in the army appeared to be wavering: "For a few weeks the head of the army has supported Gbagbo. But now if you take the army in general it is more difficult to understand what is happening . What we know from many observers is that the army is still supporting Gbagbo but we hear some of them are now approaching Ouattara to tell him that it's ok for them to support him."
The only way Ouattara's can respond with force is from his support base in the north (the country was effectively split in the 2002 civil war). But they will likely be of limited capability and unable to 'march' on Abidjan unless supported by a foreign power. A civil war in Ivory Coast could tip the whole region back into chaos.
