Cannabis
JF-Expert Member
- Jan 20, 2014
- 8,943
- 25,284
Sweden imekuwa ikisemwa vibaya kwa kujaribu kufuata kinga ya kundi "Herd Immunity" katika mapamabano dhidi ya COVID-19 na kulipa gharama ya vifo vingi zaidi. Uingereza ilijaribu kufuata mlengo huu kwa kipindi kifupi na kuuacha baada ya ongezeko kubwa la idadi za vifo vilivyotegemewa pamoja na vile viliyvokwisha jitokeza.
Inaonekana sisi tunafuata mlengo huu wa kinga ya kundi "herd immunity" lakini tunaifanya gizani. Njia ambayo Tanzania imeichukua ni ya kitofauti, baadala ya kuweka watu kwenye lockdown tumeweka takwimu kwenye lockdown. Watu wapo huru, na wanahimizwa kuzunguka huku wakichukua maamuzi yao wenyewe ya kujikinga kama kuvaa barakoa, kuosha mikono na kutochangamana katika mikusanyiko. Lakini takwimu zimenyimwa uhuru na kubanwa kwa kiwango cha juu kuliko awali.
Hakuna takwimu rasmi zilizotolewa kuhusiana na wagonjwa ama vifo vilivyosababishwa na COVID-19 tangu tarehe 29 April 2020. Mpaka tarehe 5 June, 2020 namba ya vipimo vilivyoripotiwa kufanywa na Tanzania ni 652, ukilinganisha na zaidi ya 100.000 kwa Uganda, 95,000 Kenya, 75,000 Rwanda.
Rais wa Tanzania Dr. John Pombe Magufuli ameongelea jinsi takwimu zinavyoweza kuleta hofu kwa wananchi na athari inayoweza kuletwa na takwimu hizo, pia ameonyesha kutoamini ufanisi wa vipimo vilivyokuwa vikifanywa na maabara ya taifa. Maziko ya usiku yameacha (au kuachishwa) na vituo vilivyotengwa kuhudumia wagonjwa vimekuwa wazi (au vimelazimika kuwa wazi).
Tarehe 27 May, Chama cha Madaktari Tanzania (MAT) kimesema kuwa na upungufu mkubwa wa namba za visa vya wagonjwa wa COVID-19, lakini hawakutoa takwimu zozote kutetea hoja yao. Data zikiwa lockdown, matamko kama hayo hayawezi kuhakikiwa ama kupingwa.
Inaonekana tunafuata kinga ya kundi tukiwa gizani.
Mategemeo na Uzoefu
Serikali haina udhibiti juu ya usambaaji wa virusi katika mamlaka yake lakini inaweza kudhibiti jinsi taarifa za usambaaji zinavyowasilishwa kwa wananchi na jinsi wananchi wanavyoweza kutambua hali halisi. Serikali inaweza kubadili sura ya mitazamo ya ukweli kuliko kubadili ukweli wenyewe, na hii imefanyika Tanzania kwa kudidimiza takwimu.
Uelewa wa raia juu ya virusi huunda matarajio yao na vitendo. Ikiwa taswira ya ukweli waliotengenezewa na serikali ni bora kuliko ilivyotarajiwa, watu watapoteza hofu ya Covid-19, imani katika hadithi tamu na rasmi huimarishwa na watabadilisha tabia zao ipasavyo: wacha twende kwenye fukwe za bahari na tukasherekee!
Lakini ikiwa raia wataona usambaaji wa virusi ni mbaya zaidi kuliko inavyotarajiwa -( idadi ya maambukizi inayoongezeka, vifo zaidi) - watu watapoteza imani katika taarifa rasmi. Mmomonyoko wa uaminifu ni hatari kubwa kwa serikali inayotafuta kuchaguliwa tena mnamo Oktoba, kama ilivyo kwa utawala wa Rais Magufuli.
Kuvuja kwa TakwimuTakwimu kutoka nchi jirani zinasaidia kutoa mwanga juu ya kiwango cha Covid-19 nchini Tanzania. Mamlaka ya Uganda yanaonyesha kuwa, karibu madereva wa malori 45 wa Kitanzania walijaribu kupimwa nchini Uganda na kurudishwa kati ya Aprili 23 na Mei 25. Taarifa kama hizo kutoka kwa mipaka na Kenya na Zambia zimeripotiwa.
Kisayansi, zaidi mahesabu yaliyofanywa na Kituo cha MRC cha Uchambuzi wa Magonjwa ya Kuambukiza Ulimwenguni katika Chuo cha Imperial London yaliyochapishwa mnamo Mei 26, 2020. Kutumia data rasmi za kifo - kutoka wakati Tanzania ilikuwa bado inaripoti takwimu rasmi - kama mwanzo, mfano ulikadiri ukweli idadi ya maambukizo nchini Tanzania wakati wa wiki 4 kati ya Aprili 29 na Mei 26, 2020 kuwa 24,869. Ikiwa ni kweli, Tanzania ingebadilisha Afrika Kusini (na kesi 23,615) kama kitovu cha Coronavirus ya Afrika.
Makadirio ya kihesabu ya vifo vya kila siku hupunguza hofu kwa msomaji, makadirio hayo yali pendekeza kwamba "ikiwa viwango vya sasa vya juhudi za upambanaji dhidi ya virusi hivi utaenedelea", mnamo Juni 8, vifo vinavyohusiana na coronavirus vingeanguka mahali fulani kati ya vifo vinne na 27 kwa siku. Hiyo ni sehemu ndogo ya idadi ya wastani ya vifo vya kila siku vilivyopatikana nchini kabla ya uwepo wa Covid19 Tanzania ambavyo ni 1,011.
Au kuiweka tofauti zaidi, vifo vichache vya ziada - vilivyoripotiwa kama "pneumonia", kwa mfano - vinaweza kuelezewa kwa urahisi na serikali, na kueleweka pia na raia, kama vifo vya kawaida. Ikiwa, (na hii ikiwa ina inauwezekano usio mkubwa wa kutokea) , maambukizi yakishika kasi kwa Tanzania , mahesabu yanakadiria watu 200,000 wanaweza kupoteza maisha kutokana mlipuko ambao haujachukuliwa hatua dhidi ya kupambana nao. Hiyo itakuwa ngumu sana kuficha.
Juu ya uaminifu na uwazi
Kuna uwezekano takwimu zikawa chini zaidi na mimi binafsi kwa kweli matumaini iwe hivyo - na serikali inaweza kudhibiti wa taarifa inayotolewa. Lakini ikiwa mahesabu na makadirio hayo yatakuwa karibu na ukweli, basi gharama itakuwa kubwa. Watu watakufa bila lazima. Na imani ya umma itakuwa imeharibiwa vibaya mno.
Kuuficha ukweli kunaweza kuwa ushindi wa muda mfupi kwa serikali, lakini inaweza kuwa na athari mbaya katika siku zijazo. Uwazi - hata wakati habari ni mbaya - inaweza kujenga imani kuwa angalau serikali ina nia ya dhati ya kusaidia raia na inafanya bidii kulinda maisha ya kila mmoja.
Ya kesho hayajulikani. Kila mtu anatumaini kwamba utabiri mbaya kutoka kwa wataalamu wa magonjwa ya milipuko utaepukwa. Lakini kufunga takwimu wakati unawahimiza watu kuzunguka kama kawaida haitafanya hii iwe rahisi.
===
Sweden is being vilified for pursuing herd immunity against Covid-19 at the relatively high cost of lives. The UK tried it for a while until the rising number of deaths – both real and projected – forced the government to introduce a lockdown.
No data has been released on the numbers of Covid-19 cases or deaths since April 29, 2020. The number of tests reported as having been carried out is just 652, compared to over 100,000 in neighbouring Uganda, 95,000 in Kenya and 75,000 in Rwanda by June 5, 2020.
Tanzania’s president Magufuli has spoken of the fear-inducing effects of data and the harm that this can do, and has cast doubt on the reliability of testing done at the national laboratory. Night burials have stopped (or been stopped) and quarantine locations and hospitals are empty (or have been emptied).
On May 27, the Medical Association of Tanzania noted a significant reduction in Covid-19 cases, but did not provide any data to support their assertion. When the data is on lockdown, such statements can be neither verified nor contradicted.
We seem to be pursuing a strategy of herd immunity. And we are doing it in data darkness.
Expectations and experience
Government has little control over the virulence of Covid-19 in its jurisdiction. But it can control how that virulence is communicated to the public and how citizens perceive the situation. Government can shape perceptions of reality much more than they can influence the facts. In Tanzania’s case it has done so by suppressing the data.
Citizens’ understanding of the virus shapes their expectations and actions. If their perceived reality is better than expected, people lose their fear of Covid-19, faith and trust in the official story is strengthened and they change their behaviour accordingly: let us go to the beach and have a party!
However if citizens’ experience of the outbreak is worse than expected – growing infection numbers, more deaths – people will lose faith in the official story. An erosion of trust is a serious risk for a government looking for re-election in October, as is the case for president Magufuli’s administration.
Data leakages
Data from neighbouring countries help to shed some light on the extent of Covid-19 in Tanzania. Ugandan authorities show that at least 45 Tanzanian truck drivers having tested positive in Uganda and repatriated between April 23 and May 25. Similar stories from the borders with Kenya and Zambia have been reported.
More scientifically, modelling done by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London was published on May 26, 2020. Using official death data – from when Tanzania was still reporting such data – as a starting point, the model estimated the true number of infections in Tanzania during the 4 weeks between April 29 and May 26, 2020 to be 24,869. If true, Tanzania would have replaced South Africa (with 23,615 cases) as Africa’s coronavirus epicentre.
The model’s estimates of daily deaths make for less alarming reading, suggesting that “if current levels of interventions are maintained”, by June 8, coronavirus related deaths would fall somewhere between four and 27 fatalities per day. That is a small fraction of the average number of daily deaths experienced in pre-Covid19 Tanzania of 1,011.
Or to put it differently, a few extra deaths – reported as “pneumonia”, for example – can easily be shrugged off by government, and then also by citizens, as nothing unusual.
If, and it is a big if, the outbreak in Tanzania really takes hold, however, similar models estimate as many as 200,000 fatalities from an unmitigated outbreak. That would be much harder to hide.
On trust and transparency
The numbers may well turn out lower – I really hope so – and the government may retain control of the narrative. But if the models prove to be anything close to accurate, the cost will be huge. People will die unnecessarily. And public trust will be seriously damaged.
Hiding the truth may be a short-term win for the government, but one that could have devastating consequences in future. Transparency – even when the news is bad – would build trust that at least the government has the common interest at heart and is doing its best to protect lives.
The future is unknown. Everyone hopes that the worst outcomes suggested by epidemiologists are avoided. But locking down data while encouraging people to move around as normal won’t make this easy.
Source: Pursuing herd immunity in Tanzania with data on lockdown
Inaonekana sisi tunafuata mlengo huu wa kinga ya kundi "herd immunity" lakini tunaifanya gizani. Njia ambayo Tanzania imeichukua ni ya kitofauti, baadala ya kuweka watu kwenye lockdown tumeweka takwimu kwenye lockdown. Watu wapo huru, na wanahimizwa kuzunguka huku wakichukua maamuzi yao wenyewe ya kujikinga kama kuvaa barakoa, kuosha mikono na kutochangamana katika mikusanyiko. Lakini takwimu zimenyimwa uhuru na kubanwa kwa kiwango cha juu kuliko awali.
Hakuna takwimu rasmi zilizotolewa kuhusiana na wagonjwa ama vifo vilivyosababishwa na COVID-19 tangu tarehe 29 April 2020. Mpaka tarehe 5 June, 2020 namba ya vipimo vilivyoripotiwa kufanywa na Tanzania ni 652, ukilinganisha na zaidi ya 100.000 kwa Uganda, 95,000 Kenya, 75,000 Rwanda.
Rais wa Tanzania Dr. John Pombe Magufuli ameongelea jinsi takwimu zinavyoweza kuleta hofu kwa wananchi na athari inayoweza kuletwa na takwimu hizo, pia ameonyesha kutoamini ufanisi wa vipimo vilivyokuwa vikifanywa na maabara ya taifa. Maziko ya usiku yameacha (au kuachishwa) na vituo vilivyotengwa kuhudumia wagonjwa vimekuwa wazi (au vimelazimika kuwa wazi).
Tarehe 27 May, Chama cha Madaktari Tanzania (MAT) kimesema kuwa na upungufu mkubwa wa namba za visa vya wagonjwa wa COVID-19, lakini hawakutoa takwimu zozote kutetea hoja yao. Data zikiwa lockdown, matamko kama hayo hayawezi kuhakikiwa ama kupingwa.
Inaonekana tunafuata kinga ya kundi tukiwa gizani.
Mategemeo na Uzoefu
Serikali haina udhibiti juu ya usambaaji wa virusi katika mamlaka yake lakini inaweza kudhibiti jinsi taarifa za usambaaji zinavyowasilishwa kwa wananchi na jinsi wananchi wanavyoweza kutambua hali halisi. Serikali inaweza kubadili sura ya mitazamo ya ukweli kuliko kubadili ukweli wenyewe, na hii imefanyika Tanzania kwa kudidimiza takwimu.
Uelewa wa raia juu ya virusi huunda matarajio yao na vitendo. Ikiwa taswira ya ukweli waliotengenezewa na serikali ni bora kuliko ilivyotarajiwa, watu watapoteza hofu ya Covid-19, imani katika hadithi tamu na rasmi huimarishwa na watabadilisha tabia zao ipasavyo: wacha twende kwenye fukwe za bahari na tukasherekee!
Lakini ikiwa raia wataona usambaaji wa virusi ni mbaya zaidi kuliko inavyotarajiwa -( idadi ya maambukizi inayoongezeka, vifo zaidi) - watu watapoteza imani katika taarifa rasmi. Mmomonyoko wa uaminifu ni hatari kubwa kwa serikali inayotafuta kuchaguliwa tena mnamo Oktoba, kama ilivyo kwa utawala wa Rais Magufuli.
Kuvuja kwa TakwimuTakwimu kutoka nchi jirani zinasaidia kutoa mwanga juu ya kiwango cha Covid-19 nchini Tanzania. Mamlaka ya Uganda yanaonyesha kuwa, karibu madereva wa malori 45 wa Kitanzania walijaribu kupimwa nchini Uganda na kurudishwa kati ya Aprili 23 na Mei 25. Taarifa kama hizo kutoka kwa mipaka na Kenya na Zambia zimeripotiwa.
Kisayansi, zaidi mahesabu yaliyofanywa na Kituo cha MRC cha Uchambuzi wa Magonjwa ya Kuambukiza Ulimwenguni katika Chuo cha Imperial London yaliyochapishwa mnamo Mei 26, 2020. Kutumia data rasmi za kifo - kutoka wakati Tanzania ilikuwa bado inaripoti takwimu rasmi - kama mwanzo, mfano ulikadiri ukweli idadi ya maambukizo nchini Tanzania wakati wa wiki 4 kati ya Aprili 29 na Mei 26, 2020 kuwa 24,869. Ikiwa ni kweli, Tanzania ingebadilisha Afrika Kusini (na kesi 23,615) kama kitovu cha Coronavirus ya Afrika.
Makadirio ya kihesabu ya vifo vya kila siku hupunguza hofu kwa msomaji, makadirio hayo yali pendekeza kwamba "ikiwa viwango vya sasa vya juhudi za upambanaji dhidi ya virusi hivi utaenedelea", mnamo Juni 8, vifo vinavyohusiana na coronavirus vingeanguka mahali fulani kati ya vifo vinne na 27 kwa siku. Hiyo ni sehemu ndogo ya idadi ya wastani ya vifo vya kila siku vilivyopatikana nchini kabla ya uwepo wa Covid19 Tanzania ambavyo ni 1,011.
Au kuiweka tofauti zaidi, vifo vichache vya ziada - vilivyoripotiwa kama "pneumonia", kwa mfano - vinaweza kuelezewa kwa urahisi na serikali, na kueleweka pia na raia, kama vifo vya kawaida. Ikiwa, (na hii ikiwa ina inauwezekano usio mkubwa wa kutokea) , maambukizi yakishika kasi kwa Tanzania , mahesabu yanakadiria watu 200,000 wanaweza kupoteza maisha kutokana mlipuko ambao haujachukuliwa hatua dhidi ya kupambana nao. Hiyo itakuwa ngumu sana kuficha.
Juu ya uaminifu na uwazi
Kuna uwezekano takwimu zikawa chini zaidi na mimi binafsi kwa kweli matumaini iwe hivyo - na serikali inaweza kudhibiti wa taarifa inayotolewa. Lakini ikiwa mahesabu na makadirio hayo yatakuwa karibu na ukweli, basi gharama itakuwa kubwa. Watu watakufa bila lazima. Na imani ya umma itakuwa imeharibiwa vibaya mno.
Kuuficha ukweli kunaweza kuwa ushindi wa muda mfupi kwa serikali, lakini inaweza kuwa na athari mbaya katika siku zijazo. Uwazi - hata wakati habari ni mbaya - inaweza kujenga imani kuwa angalau serikali ina nia ya dhati ya kusaidia raia na inafanya bidii kulinda maisha ya kila mmoja.
Ya kesho hayajulikani. Kila mtu anatumaini kwamba utabiri mbaya kutoka kwa wataalamu wa magonjwa ya milipuko utaepukwa. Lakini kufunga takwimu wakati unawahimiza watu kuzunguka kama kawaida haitafanya hii iwe rahisi.
===
Sweden is being vilified for pursuing herd immunity against Covid-19 at the relatively high cost of lives. The UK tried it for a while until the rising number of deaths – both real and projected – forced the government to introduce a lockdown.
Tanzania’s approach has been different. Rather than putting people on lockdown, we have put data on lockdown. People are more or less free, even encouraged to roam, while observing largely voluntary protective behaviours: mask-wearing, hand washing and social distancing. Data, meanwhile, is under tighter control than ever before.
No data has been released on the numbers of Covid-19 cases or deaths since April 29, 2020. The number of tests reported as having been carried out is just 652, compared to over 100,000 in neighbouring Uganda, 95,000 in Kenya and 75,000 in Rwanda by June 5, 2020.
Tanzania’s president Magufuli has spoken of the fear-inducing effects of data and the harm that this can do, and has cast doubt on the reliability of testing done at the national laboratory. Night burials have stopped (or been stopped) and quarantine locations and hospitals are empty (or have been emptied).
On May 27, the Medical Association of Tanzania noted a significant reduction in Covid-19 cases, but did not provide any data to support their assertion. When the data is on lockdown, such statements can be neither verified nor contradicted.
We seem to be pursuing a strategy of herd immunity. And we are doing it in data darkness.
Expectations and experience
Government has little control over the virulence of Covid-19 in its jurisdiction. But it can control how that virulence is communicated to the public and how citizens perceive the situation. Government can shape perceptions of reality much more than they can influence the facts. In Tanzania’s case it has done so by suppressing the data.
Citizens’ understanding of the virus shapes their expectations and actions. If their perceived reality is better than expected, people lose their fear of Covid-19, faith and trust in the official story is strengthened and they change their behaviour accordingly: let us go to the beach and have a party!
However if citizens’ experience of the outbreak is worse than expected – growing infection numbers, more deaths – people will lose faith in the official story. An erosion of trust is a serious risk for a government looking for re-election in October, as is the case for president Magufuli’s administration.
Data leakages
Data from neighbouring countries help to shed some light on the extent of Covid-19 in Tanzania. Ugandan authorities show that at least 45 Tanzanian truck drivers having tested positive in Uganda and repatriated between April 23 and May 25. Similar stories from the borders with Kenya and Zambia have been reported.
More scientifically, modelling done by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London was published on May 26, 2020. Using official death data – from when Tanzania was still reporting such data – as a starting point, the model estimated the true number of infections in Tanzania during the 4 weeks between April 29 and May 26, 2020 to be 24,869. If true, Tanzania would have replaced South Africa (with 23,615 cases) as Africa’s coronavirus epicentre.
The model’s estimates of daily deaths make for less alarming reading, suggesting that “if current levels of interventions are maintained”, by June 8, coronavirus related deaths would fall somewhere between four and 27 fatalities per day. That is a small fraction of the average number of daily deaths experienced in pre-Covid19 Tanzania of 1,011.
Or to put it differently, a few extra deaths – reported as “pneumonia”, for example – can easily be shrugged off by government, and then also by citizens, as nothing unusual.
If, and it is a big if, the outbreak in Tanzania really takes hold, however, similar models estimate as many as 200,000 fatalities from an unmitigated outbreak. That would be much harder to hide.
On trust and transparency
The numbers may well turn out lower – I really hope so – and the government may retain control of the narrative. But if the models prove to be anything close to accurate, the cost will be huge. People will die unnecessarily. And public trust will be seriously damaged.
Hiding the truth may be a short-term win for the government, but one that could have devastating consequences in future. Transparency – even when the news is bad – would build trust that at least the government has the common interest at heart and is doing its best to protect lives.
The future is unknown. Everyone hopes that the worst outcomes suggested by epidemiologists are avoided. But locking down data while encouraging people to move around as normal won’t make this easy.
Source: Pursuing herd immunity in Tanzania with data on lockdown
