Informer
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- Jul 29, 2006
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Nairobi/Brussels Leo hii (Juni 11) wametoa waraka (wito) kushawishi maandalizi ya majadiliano huku wakitathmini machafuko ambayo yanaweza kutokea endapo mipango mikakati haijawekwa kuhakikisha kuna uchaguzi wa 'huru na haki' Zanzibar.
Wanachanganua kuwa Asasi za Kiraia na Viongozi wa dini wana nafasi nzuri zaidi ya kuhamasisha na kukutanisha vyama vikuu pinzani viongee ili kuweka makubaliano ambayo yatajenga msingi ya itakayotumika kipindi cha Uchaguzi ili kuhakikisha Uchaguzi ni wa Haki.
Wito huu unaeleza kwa kina kwa kile wanachodai ‘Kivuli cha Historia ya Zanzibar’ kwa kueleza kina cha muungano kati ya Zanzibar na Tanganyika Aprili 1964. Kisha wakieleza nafasi ya vyama vya Siasa toka mwaka huo hadi vilivyopo sasa katika kuboresha ama kudhoofisha umoja huo.
Rais Magufuli ametajwa kuchangia kwa kiasi kikubwa kujenga mazingira ya chama tawala Chama Cha Mapinduzi, kuongoza milele tokana staili ya uongozi wake kama vile; kuunga kwake mkono katazo la Msimamo wa Uongozi wa Zanzibar wa kukataa kukaa na kujadili Changamoto (Crisis) iliyotokea wakati wa Uchaguzi, pia kupitisha sheria nyingi zinazo kandamiza Uhuru wa vyombo vya habari na Uhuru wa kujieleza, na mengine mengi.
Kuna hatari zimeainishwa za kutoweka mikakati ya kuboresha huku wakianisha namna ya kushawishi majadiliano kati ya viongozi wa vyama husika kabla na kuelekea uchaguzi.
Wakuu, hii ni mada mhimu. Nyie mwaonaje?
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Baadhi ya enelo la wito huo;
www.crisisgroup.org
Wanachanganua kuwa Asasi za Kiraia na Viongozi wa dini wana nafasi nzuri zaidi ya kuhamasisha na kukutanisha vyama vikuu pinzani viongee ili kuweka makubaliano ambayo yatajenga msingi ya itakayotumika kipindi cha Uchaguzi ili kuhakikisha Uchaguzi ni wa Haki.
Wito huu unaeleza kwa kina kwa kile wanachodai ‘Kivuli cha Historia ya Zanzibar’ kwa kueleza kina cha muungano kati ya Zanzibar na Tanganyika Aprili 1964. Kisha wakieleza nafasi ya vyama vya Siasa toka mwaka huo hadi vilivyopo sasa katika kuboresha ama kudhoofisha umoja huo.
Rais Magufuli ametajwa kuchangia kwa kiasi kikubwa kujenga mazingira ya chama tawala Chama Cha Mapinduzi, kuongoza milele tokana staili ya uongozi wake kama vile; kuunga kwake mkono katazo la Msimamo wa Uongozi wa Zanzibar wa kukataa kukaa na kujadili Changamoto (Crisis) iliyotokea wakati wa Uchaguzi, pia kupitisha sheria nyingi zinazo kandamiza Uhuru wa vyombo vya habari na Uhuru wa kujieleza, na mengine mengi.
Kuna hatari zimeainishwa za kutoweka mikakati ya kuboresha huku wakianisha namna ya kushawishi majadiliano kati ya viongozi wa vyama husika kabla na kuelekea uchaguzi.
Wakuu, hii ni mada mhimu. Nyie mwaonaje?
------
Baadhi ya enelo la wito huo;
IV.Averting Violence
Zanzibar’s next election could be its most dangerous yet. The annulment of the last vote and the subsequent opposition boycott poisoned relations among politicians and drove a wedge between opposition and ruling-party supporters as well. That the parties are not talking to each other means that they risk approaching another fiercely contested vote in which neither of the two main contenders is willing to contemplate defeat or has an off-ramp for avoiding crisis.
A.Clear Dangers
The most immediate danger is police and paramilitary violence against opposition supporters. President Magufuli has taken a hard line toward the opposition. His ban on opposition rallies effectively closes space for opposition leaders to campaign. By all indications, he might give security forces and paramilitaries in Zanzibar free rein to confront opposition supporters as the election nears, at a time when public trust in the authorities is already at a low ebb. If the election commission announces the opposition’s defeat, and its leaders call for protests, these could descend into bloodshed unless the security forces are measured in their response.
There are medium- and longer-term dangers, too. By most accounts, Zanzibari opposition leaders over the years have warned their supporters not to turn to violence and to pursue change through peaceful and democratic means. Much of the credit goes to Maalim Seif. According to one veteran observer:
In the medium term, youth impatience could translate into greater sympathy for those who advocate more direct action to secure a rupture with the mainland. Beginning in the mid-2000s, preachers linked to a group known as Jumuiya ya Uamsho na Mihadhara ya Kiislam (the Association for the Awakening and Propagation of Islam) openly campaigned for secession and condemned the political opposition for its timidity. Uamsho leaders were detained in October 2012 and, after an initial court appearance in the mainland, remain in jail without appearing again in court. Sentiment supporting the cause they advocated – secession – is, nevertheless, widespread.
Some youth have also fallen under the sway of Islamist militants, such as Al-Shabaab, which exploit local frustration and perceptions that the country’s Christian-dominated leadership and bureaucracy discriminate against Zanzibar and other predominantly Muslim areas in Tanzania. Though in still relatively small numbers, several Zanzibari youth have crossed into Kenya and Somalia to fight alongside Al-Shabaab. Local elders fear that they could return to join ranks with those who seek to challenge the state through violent means.
The long-run danger is that if frustration persists and more Zanzibaris, especially young people, perceive democratic channels to be rigged and their political elites impotent, the appeal of a full-blown secessionist campaign could grow. This is unlikely to happen in the short term but cannot be ruled out over time. Ongoing exploration for natural gas deposits off Zanzibar’s coast adds another complicating factor; if deposits are found, it could further fuel the debate on secession.
B.How to Encourage Dialogue
The steps needed to prevent or limit violence are not hard to identify; the challenge is persuading the authorities to take them. President Magufuli brooks no criticism and demonstrated his intolerant streak with the November 2018 expulsion of the European Union’s ambassador to Tanzania. Still, a variety of actors – civil society, particularly religious leaders; the country’s former presidents, who remain influential within the ruling party; regional bodies including the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC); and Western powers – can help persuade the authorities to change course. The goal should be to convince the Magufuli administration to engage with the opposition in both Zanzibar and the mainland, allow them to campaign freely, restrain the security forces from violently barring opposition gatherings and drop or at least suspend laws that tilt the playing field in the ruling party’s favour.
Civil society groups, notably religious leaders, and the Mwalimu Nyerere Foundation, a respected organisation that has brought parties in Zanzibar together before, should lead in urging the parties to engage one another. Due to the short time that remains before the vote, such talks should have a lean agenda. Addressing the structural factors that render a genuinely free election impossible (notably the fact that state institutions and public administrators back the ruling party) is unrealistic. But talks should at a minimum aim to restore the partially free conditions that in past elections enabled the opposition to take part with some hope of victory.
The first step should be for the ruling party in Zanzibar to put on hold plans to pass the bill to permit the election-winning party to share power with another party of its choosing rather than the party that comes in second. Nor should the Registrar of Parties, whose office has summoned the opposition ACT-Wazalendo leadership for alleged breaches, ban the party from contesting the vote as that would court chaos. Ideally, too, the ruling party would suspend recent electoral amendments that skew the playing field even further in its favour, notably by reinstating opposition representatives in the electoral commission and stripping the electoral commission chairman of his power to annul the election unilaterally. Tanzanian authorities should warn the security forces against restricting the opposition from campaigning.
It is unlikely that President Magufuli will on his own change course and permit such reforms. But senior ruling-party officials, including recent presidents Jakaya Kikwete and Benjamin Mkapa, and regional leaders still have influence. They should prevail on Magufuli to moderate policies that jeopardise Tanzania’s hard-earned stability and social harmony. According to party insiders, the common perception that Magufuli has brought CCM to heel and will not listen to its leaders is overblown. Instead, CCM grandees, following party tradition, appear to have given him space to effect his agenda and are waiting out his term. But those leaders should not underestimate the risks inherent in his crackdowns.
Neighbouring countries, including members of the EAC and SADC, should lend their voices to calls to avoid violence. They should use their ties to the Tanzanian government to persuade ruling-party figures to engage the opposition and to Magufuli to persuade him not to unleash a wave of repression that could destabilise Tanzania, historically one of the most peaceful nations in the region and a host country to thousands of refugees.
Western partners can help. Following the controversial 2015 election, most of them suspended all engagement with the Zanzibari ruling party. The U.S. cancelled nearly $500 million in aid to Tanzania. The decision to downgrade ties was principled, but in effect took Western countries that had previously encouraged dialogue out of the game. With the next election looming, Western countries should consider re-engaging to encourage both sides to talk and create conditions for an election that does not end in violent contestation. True, they face a dilemma, due in part to China’s growing footprint, which gives Magufuli another option for financial support in the face of Western pressure, and the president’s explicit warnings to them. In the words of one diplomat, they have to strike a careful balance “between values and interests”. That balance, however, should tip toward support for a credible vote in Zanzibar as a means of reducing risks of instability.
Western governments have tools to influence the authorities. Rather than threatening to suspend aid, they should warn that actors, including security forces, government and electoral officials who subvert the election or mete out violence against protesters will face sanctions. Many senior officials travel regularly to Europe; some educate their children there and have family in those countries. Threats of visa bans and asset seizures will almost certainly matter to them. The European Union, African Union, Commonwealth and others should deploy long-term observers early and issue regular statements in advance of the vote.
V.Conclusion
Zanzibar matters. It is a historical, cultural and trade centre, home to some of East Africa’s oldest ports. Residents up and down the coast have long looked to it as a bastion of learning. If it erupts into long-run instability or violence, the actors most likely to gain would be those with malign intentions, potentially including Islamist militants. Preserving at least a degree of pluralism and give-and-take between the ruling party and its rivals on the archipelago in the forthcoming elections is critical to avoiding such an outcome.
Kwa taarifa zaidi soma makala hii;
Averting Violence in Zanzibar’s Knife-edge Election | Crisis Group
Next year’s elections in Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous Tanzanian archipelago, will be hard fought. With the ruling party changing the rules in its favour, they could turn violent. The islands’ politicians should urgently meet to discuss levelling the playing field and lowering the risk of clashes.
www.crisisgroup.org
