The Flop of Tanzania's Chadema Party Public Demonstrations: A Detailed Assessment of the Political Landscape
Mmusi Mosimane Nthuli
Today January 24th 2024, a pivotal political episode unfolded in Tanzania when Chadema, a significant opposition party, staged public demonstrations. Intended as a show of strength and opposition unity, these events instead highlighted profound challenges and strategic misjudgments within Chadema, offering a nuanced view of Tanzania's political dynamics.
Diminished Support in Mbezi: CHADEMA made a tactical error of having two routes for the demo. The Mbezi route, historically a stronghold for Chadema, witnessed a notably low turnout of less than 300 people. This was a stark deviation from the enthusiastic gatherings in previous years and signified a worrying decline in Chadema's grassroots support in the Ubungo-Kibamba area. The diminished numbers not only showcased a loss of mobilization capacity but also possibly reflected a broader public disenchantment with the party's direction, especially in comparison to the more successful periods under leaders like Dr. Willibrod Slaa.
Buguruni's Inflated Turnout: The Buguruni route, while drawing around 800 participants, did not necessarily represent a genuine swell in support. This number, ostensibly bolstered as the march passed through populous areas like Ilala and Kariakoo, raised questions about the authenticity of the crowd and suggested a reliance on incidental rather than committed supporters.
Strategic Misjudgments: Organizing demonstrations ahead of parliamentary sessions emerged as a tactical blunder for Chadema. While the relevant committee of parliament has finalised its report for parliamentary consolidation, CHADEMA demonstrated towards UN offices which had nothing to do witb legislative process in Dodoma.
Far from consolidating opposition strength, this move inadvertently played into President Samia Suluhu Hassan's narrative of reform and governance, weakening the intended political statement of the demonstrations.
nternal Factionalism: The evident internal rifts within Chadema were highlighted by the divergent routes taken during the demonstrations. The split factions, one led by Mbowe with allies such as Sugu, Mrema, and Kigaila, and the other by Lissu, including John Heche and Msigwa Peter, illuminated deep-seated divisions and infighting. This fragmentation not only diluted the party's message but also hindered cohesive action and effective mobilization. Why didnt they march hand in hand together to show solidarity?
Rising Threat from ACT Wazalendo: Amid these challenges, Chadema also faces growing competition from ACT Wazalendo. More organized and seemingly more strategic in its approaches, ACT Wazalendo is increasingly appealing to Chadema's traditional bases but also consolidating in its areas including in Zanzibar. This shift underscores Chadema's need to reassess its strategies and reassert its relevance in Tanzanian politics.
The Imperative for Electoral Reforms: These developments emphasize the critical need for comprehensive electoral reforms in Tanzania. Chadema's isolated and sometimes poorly executed strategies underscore the importance of a united front among all political reformers. Effective and transformative change in Tanzania's political landscape can only emerge from a collaborative and well-coordinated effort.
In conclusion, the January 24th, 2024 public demonstrations by Chadema failed to meet their objectives, revealing the party's weakened grassroots support, strategic miscalculations, and internal divisions. Coupled with the rise of ACT Wazalendo, these factors place Chadema at a crossroads. For Tanzania's political evolution, the path forward lies in electoral reforms and a unified approach among reform-minded parties and actors.
Dr. Nthuli is a political observer in Tanzania. He teaches political communication at the University of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Mmusi Mosimane Nthuli
Today January 24th 2024, a pivotal political episode unfolded in Tanzania when Chadema, a significant opposition party, staged public demonstrations. Intended as a show of strength and opposition unity, these events instead highlighted profound challenges and strategic misjudgments within Chadema, offering a nuanced view of Tanzania's political dynamics.
Diminished Support in Mbezi: CHADEMA made a tactical error of having two routes for the demo. The Mbezi route, historically a stronghold for Chadema, witnessed a notably low turnout of less than 300 people. This was a stark deviation from the enthusiastic gatherings in previous years and signified a worrying decline in Chadema's grassroots support in the Ubungo-Kibamba area. The diminished numbers not only showcased a loss of mobilization capacity but also possibly reflected a broader public disenchantment with the party's direction, especially in comparison to the more successful periods under leaders like Dr. Willibrod Slaa.
Buguruni's Inflated Turnout: The Buguruni route, while drawing around 800 participants, did not necessarily represent a genuine swell in support. This number, ostensibly bolstered as the march passed through populous areas like Ilala and Kariakoo, raised questions about the authenticity of the crowd and suggested a reliance on incidental rather than committed supporters.
Strategic Misjudgments: Organizing demonstrations ahead of parliamentary sessions emerged as a tactical blunder for Chadema. While the relevant committee of parliament has finalised its report for parliamentary consolidation, CHADEMA demonstrated towards UN offices which had nothing to do witb legislative process in Dodoma.
Far from consolidating opposition strength, this move inadvertently played into President Samia Suluhu Hassan's narrative of reform and governance, weakening the intended political statement of the demonstrations.
nternal Factionalism: The evident internal rifts within Chadema were highlighted by the divergent routes taken during the demonstrations. The split factions, one led by Mbowe with allies such as Sugu, Mrema, and Kigaila, and the other by Lissu, including John Heche and Msigwa Peter, illuminated deep-seated divisions and infighting. This fragmentation not only diluted the party's message but also hindered cohesive action and effective mobilization. Why didnt they march hand in hand together to show solidarity?
Rising Threat from ACT Wazalendo: Amid these challenges, Chadema also faces growing competition from ACT Wazalendo. More organized and seemingly more strategic in its approaches, ACT Wazalendo is increasingly appealing to Chadema's traditional bases but also consolidating in its areas including in Zanzibar. This shift underscores Chadema's need to reassess its strategies and reassert its relevance in Tanzanian politics.
The Imperative for Electoral Reforms: These developments emphasize the critical need for comprehensive electoral reforms in Tanzania. Chadema's isolated and sometimes poorly executed strategies underscore the importance of a united front among all political reformers. Effective and transformative change in Tanzania's political landscape can only emerge from a collaborative and well-coordinated effort.
In conclusion, the January 24th, 2024 public demonstrations by Chadema failed to meet their objectives, revealing the party's weakened grassroots support, strategic miscalculations, and internal divisions. Coupled with the rise of ACT Wazalendo, these factors place Chadema at a crossroads. For Tanzania's political evolution, the path forward lies in electoral reforms and a unified approach among reform-minded parties and actors.
Dr. Nthuli is a political observer in Tanzania. He teaches political communication at the University of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
