he Lancet 2008; 371:1276-1283
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60562-0
Articles
Child survival gains in Tanzania: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys
Honorati Masanja PhD email address a Corresponding Author Information, Prof Don de Savigny PhD a b, Paul Smithson MPH a, Joanna Schellenberg PhD a c, Theopista John MSc d, Conrad Mbuya MPH e, Gabriel Upunda MPH e, Ties Boerma PhD f, Prof Cesar Victora PhD g, Prof Tom Smith PhD b and Hassan Mshinda PhD a
Summary
Background
A recent national survey in Tanzania reported that mortality in children younger than 5 years dropped by 24% over the 5 years between 2000 and 2004. We aimed to investigate yearly changes to identify what might have contributed to this reduction and to investigate the prospects for meeting the Millennium Development Goal for child survival (MDG 4).
Methods
We analysed data from the four demographic and health surveys done in Tanzania since 1990 to generate estimates of mortality in children younger than 5 years for every 1-year period before each survey back to 1990. We estimated trends in mortality between 1990 and 2004 by fitting Lowess regression, and forecasted trends in mortality in 2005 to 2015. We aimed to investigate contextual factors, whether part of Tanzania's health system or not, that could have affected child mortality.
Findings
Disaggregated estimates of mortality showed a sharp acceleration in the reduction in mortality in children younger than 5 years in Tanzania between 2000 and 2004. In 1990, the point estimate of mortality was 141·5 (95% CI 141·5141·5) deaths per 1000 livebirths. This was reduced by 40%, to reach a point estimate of 83·2 (95% CI 70·196·3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2004. The change in absolute risk was 58·4 (95% CI 32·783·8; p<0·0001). Between 1999 and 2004 we noted important improvements in Tanzania's health system, including doubled public expenditure on health; decentralisation and sector-wide basket funding; and increased coverage of key child-survival interventions, such as integrated management of childhood illness, insecticide-treated nets, vitamin A supplementation, immunisation, and exclusive breastfeeding. Other determinants of child survival that are not related to the health system did not change between 1999 and 2004, except for a slow increase in the HIV/AIDS burden.
Interpretation
Tanzania could attain MDG 4 if this trend of improved child survival were to be sustained. Investment in health systems and scaling up interventions can produce rapid gains in child survival.
Funding
Asante Kibunango. Nimeipata lakini haina details nyingi hasa methodology. Nimepata contact za corresponding author nitamcontact.
Government of Norway.
Affiliations
a. Ifakara Health Research and Development Centre, Ifakara, Tanzania
b. Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland
c. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
d. World Health Organization, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
e. Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
f. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
g. University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
Corresponding Author InformationCorrespondence to: Honorati Masanja, Ifakara Health Research and Development Centre, Kiko Avenue, Plot N 463, Mikocheni, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
hmasanja@ihrdc.or.tz
Hizi sentensi ndio zinaleta utata as zimekaa kufagiliafagilia mno
Ahaaa haaa, I can understand Mama. Lakini Lancet ni jarida zito na ni moja kati ya majarida yanayoheshimika sana duniani katika anga za tafiti kuhusu mambo ya afya. Kwa wale wanaojua mambo ya haya majarida wataelewa nikiwaambia kwamba impact factor ya hii journal ni zaidi ya 28! Kwa hiyo, yeah, kama alivyosema MKJJ inaeleweka tukiwa na doubt na kila kitu, lakini kama habari imechapishwa na hili jarida basi tuna sababu zaidi ya kuiamini kuliko kuishuku, but I am not sure if it is something that I should be cheering about!
LET'S hear it for Tanzania. Despite being one of the world's poorest nations, it has become a role model in how to reach global targets for reducing death rates of children and mothers - putting most of its poor African neighbours to shame. So says the World Health Organization.
Reports released last week in The Lancet (vol 371, p 1276) and this week at a summit in Cape Town, South Africa, show that of the 68 nations that account for 97 per cent of the world's childhood and maternal deaths, only 16 are on track to meet Millennium Development Goals to cut deaths in children under 5 by two-thirds, and maternal deaths by three-quarters between 1990 and 2015.
Tanzania has succeeded through political leadership, the WHO says. Between 1999 and 2004 its government increased the annual amount spent on healthcare per citizen from $4.70 to $11.70. No other African governments matched this. Moreover, the money was spent evenly around the country, eliminating disparities that once favoured richer districts. "You don't need to be a rich country to reach the targets," says Anne Mason of the WHO.
We've shown that you don't need to be a rich country to reach the targetsAs a result, child mortality fell by 11 per cent per year between 2000 and 2005, compared with just 1.4 per cent per year between 1990 and 1999. "With the current trend, Tanzania can reach the target for children," says Mason. Tanzania must do more to tackle deaths of newborns and maternal deaths, but targets for these can be reached too, she says.
My Take:
If we want, we can do it! so lets go and do it...