Tanzania economic growth down to 5pc

[Invisible]

Dar es Salaam: Apart from bridging the recurrent expenditure gap, the package also improved the country foreign-exchange situation. Photo/LEONARD MAGOMBA


By ABDUEL ELINAZA
Monday, December 21 2009

The Bank of Tanzania predicts that the economy will grow by 5.0 per cent in the current fiscal year, down from the average of 7.1 per cent experienced in the past three years.

BoT’s preliminary economic forecast has the economy growing by 5.7 per cent in 2010/2011 fiscal year due to the stimulus package announced six months ago, as economic parameters show a positive growth trend.

The final figure, however, depends heavily on eco-proceeding of three to four months to come.

Prof Benno Ndulu, Governor of the Bank of Tanzania, told The EastAfrican in Dar es Salaam last week that the stimulus package had saved the education, health and infrastructure sectors from collapse, as it provided $600 million to fill the revenue gaps between June and July.

Apart from bridging the recurrent expenditure gap, the package also improved the country foreign-exchange situation, as about $300 million was pumped into the market to balance the current account deficit, with the International Monetary Fund providing the funds.

According to Prof Ndulu, another $200 million facilitated debt repayment and guarantees for the agriculture sectors most hit by global financial recession — namely coffee and cotton — to rejuvenate farming and buying activities.

Of this, $21.9 million went into coffee and cotton crop buying loans, with loan guarantees and rescheduling accounting for $45 million, food security $20 million, farm implements $20 million and the Tanzania Investment Bank receiving over $90 million for the agriculture window through Kilimo Kwanza.

Still, the $1.2 million stimulus package so far provided by the Central Bank falls short of the total of $1.7 million earmarked by the government for various sectors affected by the global economic crisis.

The rest of the package depends on funds released by the January-June 2010 revenue collections.

However, Hussein Kamote, director of policy and research at the Confederation of Tanzania Industries, told The EastAfrican that the stimulus package was not by itself sufficient to “jump-start the economy” and get it back to above 7 per cent growth, adding that the government needed to induce banks to lower interest rates to boost lending to private sector.

Mr Kamote said the government could build banks’ confidence by guaranteeing bailouts for firms in crisis, though the current two-digit inflation is another factor pushing up the cost of lending.

Government intervention

A senior lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam’s, Business School, Dr Donath Olomi, said government intervention is crucial in order to restore credit to the private sector, as the crisis had made banks especially risk-averse.

In its first review under the exogenous shock facility for Tanzania, the IMF said the fiscal and monetary stimulus to support growth had resulted in “early signs of a nascent recovery.”

The release further said, “Fiscal revenues remain weak and it will be important to preserve control over expenditures, particularly given the need to respond to the drought in the region and address infrastructure weaknesses.”

However, all assessment and performance criteria for end-June were met, and there has been good progress in implementing structural reforms.


Source: The East African

 

[Bulesi]

Hawa hawa jamaa ndio waliotuambia kuwa nchi yetu isingeathirika na economic crisis za huko ulaya na America; sasa hizi stimulus packages basi ni za nini kama tulikuwa insulated from those problems? Hawa jamaa hawajui kuwa uchumi wetu unatagemea watalii toka nchi zilizoendelea na pia huko ndiko yaliko masoko ya mazao yetu? Inabidi BOT wawe careful na statement zao; inabidi wawe patient na waache kukurupuka kutoa statements kwani zinaweza kuathiri uchumi wa nchi!!.

 

[Invisible]

IMF tips slow growth for Tz economy
​

Written by JACOB JOSEPH
Monday, 21 December 2009
East African Business Week

DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA - Tanzania's economic growth is expected to slow to a projected 5% in 2009, down from an average of 7.1% in the last three years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted.

The IMF said in a press release issued recently that after several years of high growth and strong macroeconomic performance,” the Tanzanian economy has been affected by the global financial crisis.”

The fund said the problem is being aggravated by the challenges of food security, poverty alleviation, and infrastructure building.

Bank of Tanzania Governor, Prof. Benno Ndulu, said last week that the economy is projected to grow at 5.7% in 2010 following the stimulus package introduced six-month ago.

“The predictions are still in early stage but the economic parameters are showing a positive growth,” he said.

He said the bank has so far released Tsh.1.2 trillion (US$ 896.5 million) out of the Tsh1.7 trillion, (US$ 1.27 billion) stimulus package.

In the first review under the exogenous shock facility for Tanzania, IMF predicted that fiscal and monetary stimulus to support growth shows a nascent economic recovery.”

The fund attributes the poor performance to weak revenue collections, poor infrastructure and the drought in the region.

 

[MaxShimba]

Ki Dar kinakuwa tu. Na uchumi unakwenda chini!!!

 

[bnhai]

Ki Dar kinakuwa tu. Na uchumi unakwenda chini!!!

Inakuwa kulinganisha na nini?
Bulesi imenena hayo ni madhara ya kuyumba kwa uchumi. Honetsly kila mtu alishangaa kwamba uchumi wetu upo safe. Maana siyo utalii, tnaexport nje mazao na tunaagiza bidhaa. Kuna issue ya misaada. Ilikuwa hoja ya ajabu. But 5% with the presence turmoil si mbaya km kweli ni 5%.

 

[MaxShimba]

Inakuwa kulinganisha na nini?
Bulesi imenena hayo ni madhara ya kuyumba kwa uchumi. Honetsly kila mtu alishangaa kwamba uchumi wetu upo safe. Maana siyo utalii, tnaexport nje mazao na tunaagiza bidhaa. Kuna issue ya misaada. Ilikuwa hoja ya ajabu. But 5% with the presence turmoil si mbaya km kweli ni 5%.

Hizo bailout tulizokuwa tunakula tokea enzi za Mwalimu, na bado ni asilimia 5%. Hiyo haitoshi.

Hivi hujawai kujiuliza swali moja, kwanini Tanzania ndio nchi pekee duniani inayotumia Sh Bilioni moja kujenga kilometa moja ya barabara ya lami? Hivi hizi barabara tunajenga juu ya bahari?

Ile barabara ya Kisiju Lindi tokea Mwalimu? Vyandarua vya Mbu tunatoa Marekani? Hivi kweli tunaendelea au tunaenda hatua moja mbele na hatua mbili nyuma? Rais wetu, anapanda ndege na kwenda Marekani kuomba vyandarua vya mbu? Halafu tunadai kuwa tuna viongozi na wataalam, tena wenye madigirii makubwa makubwa?

 

[Triplets]

mimi hata siku moja huwa siwaelewi wanapozungumzia haya mambo. kwani tuna export bidhaa gani na kiasi gani kwenda kwenye hizo nchi zinazohangaika na recessesion kiasi cha kuathiri mapato ya taifa? hata utalii wenyewe hauingizi kiasi cha kushusha uchumi kiasi hicho

hao hao wenyewe wanasema budget ya tanzania inategemea revenew na misaada , labda waseme misaada imepungua, vinginevyo mimi sioni sababu yoyote ya kuporomoka kwa uchumi na naanza kushawishika kufikiria kwamba pengine kuna wajanja wachache wana tumia hali iliyoko huko western countries kama njia ya kukomba fedha na kusingizia recession...

 

[bnhai]

mimi hata siku moja huwa siwaelewi wanapozungumzia haya mambo. kwani tuna export bidhaa gani na kiasi gani kwenda kwenye hizo nchi zinazohangaika na recessesion kiasi cha kuathiri mapato ya taifa? hata utalii wenyewe hauingizi kiasi cha kushusha uchumi kiasi hicho

hao hao wenyewe wanasema budget ya tanzania inategemea revenew na misaada , labda waseme misaada imepungua, vinginevyo mimi sioni sababu yoyote ya kuporomoka kwa uchumi na naanza kushawishika kufikiria kwamba pengine kuna wajanja wachache wana tumia hali iliyoko huko western countries kama njia ya kukomba fedha na kusingizia recession...

Triplets inawezekana huoni kwa sababu huna access na takwimu. Nchi yetu haina viwanda kabisa, unataraji mazao yanaozalishwa yanakwenda wapi? Na pia tunanunua wapi? Tunatumia nini kununua? Unafaham utalii unaingizia Taifa kiasi gani? Jarinu kupitia bajeti za wizara km mifugu na maendeleo ya jamii utaona ni kiasi gani utalii unamaana.
Infact upo uwezekano wa kuibiwa kwa kisingio cha recession. Km ile stimulus, hakuna evidence za kunonyesha km imerescue the said sectors from collapsing.