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Opposition gaining ground but Kikwete still popular

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by LeoKweli, May 12, 2009.

  1. L

    LeoKweli JF-Expert Member

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    As Tanzania prepares for next year’s general elections, a recent poll by the Research and Education for Democracy shows increased support for the opposition both in Tanzania mainland and the Isles.

    Support for opposition parties increased to 27 per cent in 2008 from 8 per cent in 2006, while that for the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi has declined by half to 32.6 per cent last year, from 60 per cent in 2006.
    The survey, carried out last November in all the country’s 26 regions, was the third since President Jakaya Kikwete took over in 2005.

    The poll shows dissatisfaction with CCM increased to 24.6 per cent in 2008 from 12 per cent in 2006. This contrasted with the decline in the people’s negative attitude towardS the opposition, which fell to 26.5 per cent from 51 per cent over the same period.

    However, overall, the ruling party has retained its appeal with 72.8 per cent of those polled while the opposition had 62.1 per cent. According to principal researcher Dr Bernadeta Killian, those polled complained of CCM’s failure to stick to its promises (22.4 per cent), non-performing leaders (18.7 per cent) and corruption and bribery (13.9 per cent).

    About 18.7 per cent faulted the opposition for its leadership wrangles, lack of attractive policies (10.8 per cent), while 7.3 per cent felt the opposition lacked what it takes to lead the country.

    The poll shows that President Kikwete remains popular, but confidence in his leadership dropped to 78.5 per cent in the latest poll, from 79.4 per cent in 2007 and 90.1 per cent in 2006. Trust in the president also fell, with 19.3 per cent those polled in 2008 saying they did not trust, up from 7.8 per cent in 2006.

    However, President Kikwete surprisingly scored the highest trust in Mkoani, Pemba, which is considered an opposition stronghold.

    Of the people interviewed in this area, 82 per cent approved of his leadership. As expected, he fared badly in Karatu constituency, the stronghold of Chadema leader Willibrod Slaa, where 66 per cent of those polled said they were dissatisfied with his performance. Only 63.8 per cent of those polled said they had trust in the current Cabinet.

    The poll cites the government’s failure to implement and meet its promises, rampant high-level corruption and controversial investment contracts as the major causes of people’s disappointment.

    The latest survey was carried out last November, at a the time when the country was gripped by several scandals and trials of public figures and former civil servants for corruption.

    The Research and Education for Democracy is the political science and public administration arm of the University of Dar es Salaam, and has since the introduction of multiparty politics in 1992, been engaged in the democratisation of the country through research, documentation and civic education.

    Dr Killian said the poll was “a wake- up call” for CCM and the government, and that the results were a testimony that Tanzanians had lost confidence in the ruling party and the government due to poor service delivery and non-fulfilment of campaign promises.

    Dr Killian said for the opposition, the growing support “is a positive indicator” of the growth in democracy, but was quick to point out that opposition parties still had their work cut out for them to win more supporters.

    The poll results further show a decline in the performance rating of President Kikwete. However, the president’s personal rating was still positive and eclipsed that of his government and the ruling party.

    All the 1,300 people polled gave parliament a high rating in the institutional category, but interestingly gave a low opinion of their individual members of parliament.

    The Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau, Cabinet ministers and the law courts were the worst ranked in performance, while Local Government was ranked second in performance after parliament.

    Posted Monday, May 11 2009 at 20:55
    By WILFRED EDWIN
     
  2. J

    Jamco_Za JF-Expert Member

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    Hawa researcher wa tanzania inabidi kuangalia objectivity yao kama researcher kwenye research zao kwani sioni mantiki ni jinsi gani CCM na kikwete ni tofauti, labda tukipata jinsi walivyoframe research zao ndio tunaweza kuongelea hili lakini hivi kama lilivyo hakuna ukweli wowote.

    inwezekana wanatumia research structure zinazotumika kwenye bishara badala ya zile zinazotumika kwenye behavioural research, au wanaangalia upepo kwanza kabla ya kutoa matokea yao
     
  3. Nyani Ngabu

    Nyani Ngabu Platinum Member

    #3
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    Upuuzi mtupu. Halafu haya ma poll ya vi nchi maskini vya Kiafrika hata hayana maana yeyote. Uta poll vipi mijitu isiyokuwa informed? Hao ma pollsters wenyewe nina shaka nao kama kweli wanaielewa sayansi ya kura za maoni. Yaani usanii na ubabaishaji wa hali ya juu. Eti Kikwete bado ni popular....hivi nani mwenye akili timamu atakuwa na favorable opinion ya huyu bwana? Only Miafrika!!
     
  4. BAK

    BAK JF-Expert Member

    #4
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    Nakubaliana nawe kabisa hii poll ni UPUUZI MTUPU! Maana pamoja na kuwa wanadai kwamba Kikwete bado popular lakini wako kimya kabisa kuhusu hiyo popularity ya Kikwete imesababishwa na kitu gani. Kikwete ni popular kwa lipi hasa alichokifanya katika miaka minne tangu aingie madarakani!?
     
  5. M

    Mwafrika JF-Expert Member

    #5
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    Kweli kabisa,

    Miafrika (inayojiita kuwa ni misomi ya sayansi ya siasa pale UDSM) ndivyo ilivyo.
     
  6. L

    LeoKweli JF-Expert Member

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    wataalamu wengi wa Tanzania wanaangalia upepo wa mlo wao, ndio maaana safari bado ni ndefu
     
  7. K

    Kakalende JF-Expert Member

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    Hii ni kengele kuwaamsha wapinzani, msipofanya kazi ya kutosha tutaendelea kuona sisiemu wanapokezana vijiti. Hao vyama vya upinzania wenyewe wako wapi? Wale waliokuwa wanajaribu wamenunuliwa na mafisadi, waliobaki siasa wanafanyia ukumbi wa maelezo.

    Kazi ya upinzania wameachiwa JF?

    Mwaka 1999 walisema hivihivi juu ya Mkapa wakati ule hamkukubali lakini mwaka uliofuata akashinda kwa 70%
     
  8. K

    Kakalende JF-Expert Member

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    Hii ni kengele kuwaamsha wapinzani, msipofanya kazi ya kutosha tutaendelea kuona sisiemu wanapokezana vijiti. Hao vyama vya upinzania wenyewe wako wapi? Wale waliokuwa wanajaribu wamenunuliwa na mafisadi, waliobaki siasa wanafanyia ukumbi wa maelezo.

    Kazi ya upinzania wameachiwa JF?

    Mwaka 1999 walisema hivihivi juu ya Mkapa wakati ule hamkukubali lakini mwaka uliofuata akashinda kwa 70%
     
  9. L

    LeoKweli JF-Expert Member

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    Hao wapinzani unaowaita most of them are just a groups of elite who are working to advance their intrest na si za taifa na ndio maana wananunuliwa kiulaini.
     
  10. Field Marshall ES

    Field Marshall ES JF-Expert Member

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    - Simple common sense ni why now? Maana yake ni kwamba kampeni za urais zimeshaanza, soon hawa hawa watageuka na kusema wamefanya polls tena, sasa Muungwana anakubalika tena this time kwa 95%,

    - Last time hizi polls zilifanywa na Tido kwa kushirikiana na Prof. Mukandala kwanza walianza na girini kama hili kwamba DK. Salim ndiye anayekubalika sana kuliko wagombea wote, the next time arround wakabadili kibao na kusema Muungwana ndiye anyekubalika kwa 85%,

    Haoo wameanza tena!

    FMES!
     
  11. MwanaFalsafa1

    MwanaFalsafa1 JF-Expert Member

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    Unacho sema ni ukweli. Hiyo poll haija sema ime chukua maoni ya wakina nani na wana uelewa kiasi gani na mambo ya sasa. Inawezekana wame wapoll wana CCM haha.

    Most polls in Africa are rigged like the elections themselves. Siiamini kabisa hii poll. Maybe ni ujanja wa serikali kuconvince wengine kuwa bado wana aminiwa.
     
  12. Shalom

    Shalom JF-Expert Member

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    Sasa si poa tu chama chako kilishinda na kitashinda tena na mafisadi wote mtawatoa na kubaki na wakina Kilango tu na kutuletea maendeleo!
     
  13. Field Marshall ES

    Field Marshall ES JF-Expert Member

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    - Mkuu ufike mahali ujue kutofautisha ishus muhimu kwa taifa na nonsense, hii ishu haina personal maana taifa ni kubwa sana kuliko hivi vilio vyako vya personal, next time usichokoze watu hapa utaishi kwa amani sana hapa JF.

    Respect.

    FMES!
     
  14. Shalom

    Shalom JF-Expert Member

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    Samahani kaka, nilidhani wewe chama (CCM) kwako ni mbele kuliko taifa kumbe hata wewe uko tayari CCM kupigwa chini kwa maslahi ya taifa. Du!

    Mimi sina personal na wewe hivi nirudie kusema mara ngapi!
     
  15. N

    Nampula JF-Expert Member

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    bwaa hahahah.mhhhh ....hatari
     
  16. L

    LeoKweli JF-Expert Member

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    Kama sample data zitakuwa zimetoka Vijijini basi kunaweza kukawa na uwezekano kidogo wa Vyama vya upinzani kuongeza wabunge, Lakini kama ni za mijini tum then hapinzani wanaweza kupata wabunge wachache zaidi
     
  17. Field Marshall ES

    Field Marshall ES JF-Expert Member

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    - Wakati wa kampeni za helikopta tuliambiwa haya haya, uraisi uko mikononi sasa safari hii upinzani wamepiga karata dume, majibu kuja 3%, sitaki hizi Bongo polls tena!

    FMEs!
     
  18. L

    LeoKweli JF-Expert Member

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    Tatizo la wapinzani wanatumia resources zao mijini ambapo watu wanaweza kuwaelewa vizuri kuliko kuzitumia vijijini ambajo hawafahamiki.

    Hata ukiwaambia wapinzani wakupe Independet Internal polls ambayo itatupa hali halisi hawana.

    Kimsingi ninakubaliana na wewe, Hakuna cha maana hapa kama indicators ya hali halisi
     
  19. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Hizi Polls ni lazima zijengwe kwa mitazamo ya kitanzania. Watanzania wanapiga kura kwa personality za watu na sio vyama vya kisiasa.

    Kwa mfano mtu anaweza kusema kuwa CCM inachemsha. Lakini wakati wa uchaguzi atampa kura Mzindakaya wa CCM.

    Vilevile mtu anaweza kusema CCM mmechemsha bado atampigia JK.

    Tanzania sio UK.
     
  20. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Hivi TANU ingeanza vijijini uhuru tungeupata kweli?
     
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