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Mass poll shows Labour wipeout across country

Discussion in 'International Forum' started by BAK, Sep 22, 2008.

  1. BAK

    BAK JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Sep 22, 2008
    Joined: Feb 11, 2007
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    Mass poll shows Labour wipeout across country

    · Eight cabinet ministers to lose seats
    · Tories would win majority of 146Ga

    by Hinsliff and Toby Helm The Observer,
    Sunday September 21 2008

    Gordon Brown is set to lead Labour into an election bloodbath so crushing it could take his party a decade to recover, according to the largest ever poll of marginal seats which predicts a landslide victory for David Cameron.

    Eight cabinet ministers, including the Home Secretary and the Justice Secretary, would be swept away in the rout as the Tories marched into Downing Street with a majority of 146, says the poll, conducted for PoliticsHome.com and exclusively revealed to The Observer. Seats that have been Labour since the First World War would fall.

    The sheer scale of the humiliation is almost as bad as that endured by the Tories in 1997, suggesting it could take Labour a similar time to claw its way back to power. The party would be virtually extinguished in southern England and left with only its hardcore redoubts in northern England, the Welsh valleys and deprived inner-city areas.

    The stark findings from the survey of almost 35,000 voters across 238 seats, published on the PoliticsHome website today, are likely to fuel the stalled insurrection against Brown. A third of potential Labour voters in marginal seats would be more likely to back the party if he were replaced.

    Intriguingly, the findings also suggest David Miliband's hopes of leading Labour may depend on him challenging Brown before the election.

    While the Foreign Secretary would survive the rout, his power base would be decimated, making it much harder for him to get elected in a party likely to have shifted to the left: cabinet allies James Purnell and John Hutton would have gone, along with senior Blairites Alan Milburn and Charles Clarke. Jacqui Smith, Ruth Kelly, John Denham, Des Browne, Geoff Hoon and Jack Straw are projected to lose their seats. In Scotland, the poll predicts the SNP will win next month's Glenrothes by-election

    Yesterday as MPs gathered in Manchester for the annual party conference Brown began a fightback, pledging free part-time nursery places for two-year-olds in a move towards universal childcare for pre-school children. He told the Sunday Telegraph he wanted to see 'more choice for women and for families'.

    However, even as Brown was being cheered onto the conference stage, Clarke was urging MPs to confront him. In an article for the Sunday Times he said prevarication was 'actually the most dangerous course of all'.

    Today's poll shows how Labour's progressive face would be scarred by the projected defeat, with women disproportionately more likely to be defeated and five of its 13 black and Asian MPs, including three ministers, voted out. By contrast, Cameron's new intake would include a lesbian businesswoman, a 'chick-lit' novelist and a single mother turned farmer.

    He could claim he had transformed the Conservatives into a modern and multicultural party, potentially tripling the number of women in the ranks and adding five new ethnic minority and three openly gay MPs. It comes amid signs of clear momentum building behind Miliband, who uses an interview in October's issue of Prospect magazine - to be published during the conference - to attack the 'abuse of market power' by failing executives paying themselves unjustified salaries.

    The Foreign Secretary was also boosted when the Health Secretary, Alan Johnson, his biggest rival for the leadership, publicly ruled himself out and warmly praised Miliband.

    In a newspaper interview yesterday, Johnson praised his younger colleague's 'common touch', adding: 'I hope he goes a long way because I'm a big fan of his.'

    Brown now has a mountain to climb at a conference likely to be dominated by the twin threats of Miliband and the global banking crisis. MPs are being asked to sign a loyalty pledge circulated by the backbencher Martin Salter, while the star of The Apprentice, Sir Alan Sugar, has recorded a film urging critics to back the leader or 'have the balls to get out'.
     
  2. S

    Son of Alaska JF-Expert Member

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    Sep 22, 2008
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    FOR,labour to stand any chance,gordon brown has to be shown the exit door,anything else come the next election,its gonna be a bloodbath.the labour spin machinery under tony blair,kept the vultures at bay for years,but now the truth has downed that labour is all spin.unfortunately for labour,gordon brown is to dull,they need someone vabrant to take the fight to the conservatives.i just dont see brown fighting the next election
     
  3. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

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    Sep 22, 2008
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    Thanks for the drop...now whats your take?
     
  4. jmushi1

    jmushi1 JF-Expert Member

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    Sep 22, 2008
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    Hii movement ni Blair ali isababisha yeye na Bush.
    Sasa hiyo movement na hapa USA ipo.
     
  5. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

    #5
    Sep 22, 2008
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    How good is your UK politics? If so i am sure we will have a good constructive discussion on the subject, personally i have a quite experience first with being a labour party member and secondly working first as a junior assistant at their HQ when i was doing my politics major at uni and secondly as an employee of a left leaning think tank that supports labour.

    So mzee you can forgive me for a long reply to your above post.Having watched those labour politicians Question time siku ya alhamis usiku (kama uko UK unaweza kuipata kwenye BBC I-PLAYER au simple search on BBC website) one could take the view that Westminster-style democracy in a capitalist setting is running out of ideas and dying a slow death, or one could take the view that that this system is so good that it matters little whether one party in power or its opposition.


    Dont believe the hype, Cameron has always been Blair Mark II in the same set-up as latter day Tory rule under John Major....kama ulisoma TIME magazine sometimes back ambayo alifront cover you will understand where I am coming from.


    I can honestly tell you that Cameron's efforts in cleaning up Tory MPs' expenses is a direct equivalent of Blair's "whiter than white" crusade after Major's govt was sunk under non-stop stories of sleaze. Cameron will find, just like Blair, corruption cannot be irradicated simply by waving banners by the leader.


    We shall see whether David Cameron and his wife Samantha will turn out to be grubby graspers epitoomised by Cherie Blair. The Camerons probably will never have the financial insecurity and money fixation that Cherie Blair has, but we shall see how power will corrupt Cameron, or not as the case may be.


    As to policies, I don't remember Blair's landslide victory as a positive vote for his policies. It was clearly achieved through swing-voters thoroughly fed up and disgusted with the Tories, and couldn't wait to see the backs of them, despite the economy doing well.


    Granted, the "Labour Project" would always have more popular appeal by the very nature of things: there are always more poor people hoping to be at the receiving end of wealth redistribution, and by definition the "Tory Project" will always have less popular appeal in this respect na hilo halina mjadala regardless of what the popular media hapa Uk itakavyokuwambia


    However, if you understand correctly how the British politics works then you should know that even that has substantially changed since 1979. Many people in this country may still psychologically and politically identify themselves as "working class", but in reality they have all become property owning, mortgage paying middle class. Their aspirations are now very different from their parents' pre-1979. A lot of such poeple will constitute the swing voters that will give Cameron a landslide if a General Elections was called today.


    But they are just a mirror image of the voters swinging from Tory to New Labour in 1997, in that as part of the equalising phenomenon under Thatcher, a lot of traditional Tory stock were "equalised" a bit "downwards", financially, socially and policically, and became more liberal and left-leaning.

    For example, in academia, people had to financially justify their existence, and come down from their ivory towers and rub shoulders with vulgar people in business. Old boys' networks were under pressure and had to resort to meritocracy.

    It is very interesting that nearly 30 years after Maggie's policy in expanding the middle classes, has resulted in far more restricted social and financial mobility by virtue of ability and merits.

    In making competition a constant prequisite in life, you expand the number of competitors in any given competition, resulting in larger numbers of losers than ever before, since only a very few can be true winners.

    No government or politician can make everyone a winner. And so the increased discontent continues. It's a winner for the right wing media, though. So everything is OK.

    Waiting patiently for your take

    -Usiku mwema
     
  6. S

    Son of Alaska JF-Expert Member

    #6
    Sep 22, 2008
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    GAME THEORY,i became a labour member,when Tony blair first bust on the scene,i remember it was his historic speech at the labour conference,that swept me off my feet,before then this country was all conservative.not a single soul thought the conservatives would vacate the seat in the near future.come tony blair,his vibrantism,and his visions,had this country rocking,when they likes of R murdoch,SUN changed sides,we all then knew the conservatives,had,had their day in the sun,and they were on their way out.IT seems in this country its just impossible to quench the thirst of voters,it now looks vivid that labour have overstayed their wellcome,and are now on the way out.NO one would argue,SPIN DOCTORING,has been one of the greatest weapons of labour,but sad as it may seem,everything has to come to an end.me personally have been dissilusioned by labour,but rather then vote for the conservative,i would rather not vote.the state labour finds itself in,was not helped by the infighting which led to G brown taking over.BEARING,a miracle,i just dont see a way back for labour,and trust me,in this country when papers start taking about a washout,the usually are barely off the mark.
     
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