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After Mkulo's Crisis Meeting BOT 3 Key policies to rescue Shillings

Discussion in 'Habari na Hoja mchanganyiko' started by Mdondoaji, Oct 19, 2011.

  1. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    By Alawi Masare
    The Citizen Reporter
    Dar es Salaam. The central bank yesterday moved to save the weakening shilling and put a stop to the runaway inflation by instituting measures that would tighten money supply in the economy and pump more foreign currency into the markets.A combination of factors including the depreciating shilling has sparked an increase in commodity prices, mainly foodstuffs, making basic necessities less affordable.

    In a crisis meeting with heads of commercial banks, the BoT governor Benno Ndulu announced various policy measures, key among them being the reduction of core capital of foreign exchange dealers from 20 per cent to 10 per cent to facilitate the release of more forex into the market to strengthen the shilling, bankers who attended the meeting told The Citizen yesterday.

    The exchange rate has been Sh1,765 to the dollar as of last week, having lost 14 per cent of its value since the start of the year.
    Experts predict the exchange rate will reach Sh2,000 by the end of the year but it gained as much as 0.6 per cent, chaning at 1,685.5, and 1,688.7 per dollar by Tuesday this week.

    Mr Ndulu also announced raising central bank rate by 200 basis points to 9.58 per cent. This is the rate at which commercial banks can borrow from the BoT and will mop up excess money from the circulation resulting to lower inflation and stronger shilling, according to Mr Aziz Chacha, an official with the NMB Bank who attended the meeting.
    "The central bank also increased cash reserve requirement on government deposits from 20 per cent to 30 per cent. This means the BoT will now hold 30 per cent of all government money deposited at the central bank as part of the move to reduce money circulation," Mr Chacha said.

    The new policy measures are expected to be announced by the BoT later this week.
    Efforts to get Mr Ndulu for further comment on the measures failed, but the BoT Director of Economic Research and Policy, Joseph Masawe confirmed the meeting happened. He was not in a position to offer any details saying that was the responsibility of the governor.

    Other bankers who spoke to The Citizen said they received the news with a caution and optimism and will have to "wait and see" how effectively the measures address the targeted problems.The chairman of the Tanzania Bankers Association, who also attended the meeting, said despite good intentions of the central bank, the hard part was to transform the policy moves into action. Some of them might not achieve desired results.

    He said reducing the amount of money in circulation, which currently stands at 75 per cent, would result in higher lending rates, which would in turn be detrimental to the growth of the private sector. "It is very difficult to get the required amount of money which is in people's hands into the banking system," Mr Mafuru who is also the NBC managing director said.He added, however, that there is no specific ratio stipulating how much remains in the circulation and how much stays in the banking system.

    "The BoT has the power to control money supply to check inflation and it can, therefore, apply its tools whenever it deems it fit," he said.There is no specific ratio of the money in the banking system and that which is in the hands of individuals but the central bank can decide on the interest of price stability," he added.Mr Chacha noted that the policy decisions will definitely affect the way banks do business "and certainly with all good intentions from the government."

    The measures are part of regionally coordinated efforts to salvage the economies of EAC member states that have been badly hit by high inflationary pressures and free falling currencies.Central bank governors met in Nairobi last week where they agreed to take immediate steps to contain the situation.
    The inflation rates of the three largest regional economies have been steadily rising since the beginning of the year with Uganda recording 28.3 per cent, Kenya 17.32 and Tanzania 16.8 per cent in the year ending September.

    BoT reaction to the staggering key aspects of the economy, inflation and the currency, however, follows months of hesitation and reluctance by the governor on the assumption that a weaker shilling was beneficial to exporters.

    Source: The Citizen.

    Angalizo:

    Pumping more foreign currency will only solve the situation in short term baada ya miezi michache Shillingi itazidi kuporomoka. Kuongeza Interest rate on loans kutaua ukuaji wa sekta ya uzalishaji which may lead to a much tougher fall in Tanzania economy. Increasing reserve ratio will force banks to lend less na matokeo yake mikopo itakuwa haba na wafanyabiashara wadogo wataumia.

    Ninarudia tena there is a little monetary policy will be able to do to save Shilling. Shillingi inaathiriwa na demand kubwa ya foreign currencies nchini. Bila ya kuwepo a tightening of fiscal policy this is pointless . Litatuliwe tatizo la umeme ili kuboost uzalishaji nchini. Punguzeni dollarisation nchini. Wahamasisheni wawekezaji kujiandikisha nchini ili kupunguza demand for foreign currency.

    Inflation nchini inasababishwa na imported factors (kutokana na kutegemea zaidi imports kuliko exports), pia inasababishwa na kuongezeka kwa gharama za uzalishaji nchini kutokana na kupotea kwa umeme. Isitoshe ufisadi nao unachangia kwani watu wana fedha mfukoni zisizokuwa na mpangilio na matumizi makubwa ya fedha za kigeni.
     
  2. andrewk

    andrewk JF-Expert Member

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    tunge export wenye gold, tusinge fika hapo, madini yanachimbwa kwa wingi sana sasa, ila hakuna data za exported. BOT walitakiwa kucontroll hilo tungeingiza fedha nyingi sana za kigeni
     
  3. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Hata kama wanaexport hao wachimbaji wa Barrick na wengineo wakauza nje wangelikuwa nchini tungeliweza kuwadai kodi ya mapato, na mishahara ya wafanyakazi wao tungelikuwa tunawakata kodi, pia tungelikuwa tunapata mapato ya mrahaba wa mauzo. Lingelipunguza demand for foreign currency na kuongeza pato la nchi. Badala yake makampuni ya madini yamekuwa registered Canada, Mauritius, Australia sisi hatupati kitu. Vile vile gawio la mapato ni 3% worse enough mishahara ya wafanyakazi iko in terms of US dollar shillingi itaacha wapi kushuka????
     
  4. S

    SEAL Team 6 JF-Expert Member

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    Hapo mbona kama pananichanganya yaani inamaana Polisi 3 tu wataweza kunusuru uchumi wetu???????!!!!!!!! afadhali wangekuwa JKT kwasababu wanazalisha mali hawa Polisi wanakula rushwa kulikoni maelezo.
     
  5. Mwita25

    Mwita25 JF-Expert Member

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    Policy= sera na siyo polisi wa kulinda usalama wa raia. LOL
     
  6. Gama

    Gama JF-Expert Member

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    Seal team, r you intending to seal this post?, you need to get serious on some issues. You may need to differentiate "police from policy" - ila umenichekesha, lol!
     
  7. U

    Uwezo Tunao JF-Expert Member

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    MHE NGELEJA KAIGE YA MHE MUSTAFA MKULLO KUWAPUUZA 'WADANDIAJI' WENYE KUTAFUTA ZAIDI MASLAHI BINAFSI NA KUAMUA KUCHUKUA HATUA KUOKOA SHILINGI YETU

    Ngeleja na wewe ACT LIKE A MINISTER WITH FULL AUTHORITY, kama ambavyo alivyofa Mkullo katika huu mtihani wa shilingi yetu kuporomoka thamani kila kukicha.

    Walau endelea kuonyesha juhudi za dhati na kutushirikisha kwa kila hatua kinachoendelea ili pale unapohujumiwa na matapeli wa kisiasa nchini sote tuwe tunaelewa mtiririko wa mambo. Wizara hizi zote hata siku moja hamna mawasiliano murua na sisi umma wa Tanzania hivyo kufanya kazi zenu kuwa ngumu zaidi.

    Mhe Ngeleja, be a man worth your own salt bila kuachia hawa awamu ya pili ya matapeli wa kisiasa tunaowaona na jisi wanavyowaingilieni ki-utendaji. Naamini kwamba kama unatambua kwamba wewe ni Mtanzania na kwamba Uwaziri kwako si hisani bali ni haki na fursa ya kututumikia sisi Wa-Tanzania wenzako, wala hutobabaishwa kitu na hawa 'Ma-WANNABE' Cabinet Ministers wanaojipigisha ovyo jaramba hivi sasa.

    Lakini kwa hizi pupa zao msidhani Wa-Tanzania hatuwaangalieni kwa umakini mkubwa kiasi hicho hivyo kama kuna Tim Meneja mahala pengine kawapa ishara ya kuhitajika uwanjani kuchukua nafasi zenu, nako pia tunasema hayo yote YASIFANYIKE KWA MTINDO WA KUTAFUTA KUDHALILISHANA.

    Ni vema ikumbukwe kwa wengi wenu mawaziri wetu wa sasa hamkuwahi kunikuna ki-utendaji murua hata siku moja ISIPOKUA TU Dr Maghufuli ambaye hata mtu anyetunga wizara ya ajabu kiasi gani hata kama ni Wizara ya Kusafisha Choo - ajabu ni kwamba huyu baba bado tu atajipindisha humu humu tena kwa unyenyekevu mkubwa (si kwa rais bali ni kwetu sisi wananchi) ki-utendaji uliotukuka na kuacha matunda yake kututangazia yale yanayoendelea wizarani kwake BILA KULAZIMIKA KUJIPITISHA PITISHA NA KUJINADI OVYO kama ambavyo utenda wa zitto na Makamba ulivyo kwa kila dogo na vyobo vya habari nyuma - these are shear political opportunists of the worst degree!!!!!!!

    Sisi tunapokupigieni kelele si kwamba tunazo chuki binafsi ila pale kunaponuka harufu za ufisadi katika uhaba mkubwa wa kifedha tulionayo kama taifa hadi hapo tu ukichaa unatupanda kichwani mara moja bila kutazama yeyote usoni. Hivi sasa huu upuuzi unaofanya kwa kumruhusu Makamba kukaimu nafasi yako hata kabla hatujasikia matangazo ya aina yoyote ile kubadilishwa kwa baraza la mawaziri, nakuambia jambo likienda kombo tena kama Dowans - Wa-Tanzania tutakuchuna wewe ngozi na wa Makamba hatumjui.

    Ujirani wa Makamba na rais wa nchi usikupe hofu ya utendaji kwa kujiamini kwa kuwa naye huyo aliyekuteua anatambua wazi kwamba analo jukumu lisilokwepeka kukuunga mkono ndipo mafanikio yapatikane.

    Sawa sawa na jinsi alivyojitokeza Mhe Mkulo kutenda yale yaliomo ndani ya mipaka yake ki-utenda (jitihadaji za kuokoa shilingi yetu) bila kuangalia kwamba anaingiliwa ki-utendaji na mtu au chombo gani vile, vivyo hivyo ndivyo tunavyotarajia kumuona Waziri wa Nishati na Madini wa Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania akisimama kwa kujiamini kwenye nafasi yake na kujiweka huru zaidi hata kumtafuta ushauri mtaalam yeyote hata wa kambi ya upinzani kwa kuwa Tanzania yetu sote na wala si kama wenye mawazo mgando wanavyodai eti ni mali ya CCM.

    Nasubiri kuona utendaji uliotukuka na kucheza ki-ushirikiano zaidi sawa Dr Maghufuli katika wizara mbalimbali alizowahi kututumikia au kama uweza mkubwa wa Waheshimiwa Dr Slaa, Mbowe na wajumbe wengine wengi katika kukijenga CHADEMA into an informidable political force isiochezewa chezewa ovyo tena kwa kejeli za 'vyama vya msimu au vya uchaguzi'.

    Mwisho, tegemea micharazo ile mbaya kutoka kwangu pale unapovurunda na mbaya zaidi pale unapozuia uwazi na kuchagua kukingia kifua ufisadi. Tangu sasa acho yote kwako na mikataba mbalimbali kwenye miradi ya gesi yetu na jinsi gani utakavyotumia akili yako mwenyewe kutushirikisha hadi wapinzani katika kila hatua.

    Always remember that a man is a man untill he voluntarilly chooses ceasing to be a man; stand your ground against these self-seekers na kazi iendelee.
     
  8. L

    Leotena Member

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    Mkuu hueleweki unataka kuzungumza nini au una beef na Ngeleja?
     
  9. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Confused anyway amezungumzia kuhusu umeme na umeme ni moja ya tatizo kubwa linalosababisha shillingi kuporomoka kwa haraka.
     
  10. S

    SEAL Team 6 JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu unajua mimi nikisikia habari za polisi huwa najihisi kichefuchefu kabisa kwa sababu wanabaka demokrasia. Ila nashukuru kwa kunielewesha, usiache sikunyingine kunifafanulia zaidi.
     
  11. U

    Uwezo Tunao JF-Expert Member

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    Ni uelewa wako tu na unahaki nayo pia.

     
  12. K

    KipimaPembe JF-Expert Member

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    Hizi policy adjustments zinafanya kazi kwenye chumi zinazoeleweka! Benki hawana "clue" ni kwa kiasi gani hizo policy adjustment zinaweza kuathiri uchumi wa Tanzania ambao uko highly informal. Hapo tunachofanya ni ping pong kwa sababu hivyo ndo world bank wanavyosema.

    The real elephant in the house ambaye haguswi ni Government spending! Katika nchi yetu hii, mwajiri mkubwa ni serikali by far. Kwa hiyo a lion's share ya cash circulating in the economy inatokea kwenye mikono ya serikali. Policy adjustments zinazodhibiti flow ya fedha kutokea kwenye mabenki haiwezi kuwa na impact.

    Policy adjustment kubwa inatakiwa i-focus kwenye kudhibiti flow ya fedha kutoka serikalini kwenda kwenye uchumi. Vile vile inatakiwa iangalie kwenye ufanisi wa kiutendaji katika serikali na idara zake. Hivyo ilitakiwa katika huo mkutano wa benki kuu wawemo mawaziri, waziri mkuu na probably mkuu wa nchi.

    Inflation manake kuna fedha nyingi zinazofukuzia bidhaa kidogo. Kudhibiti inflation ni ama uongeze uzalishaji wa bidhaa kwenye mfumo au upunguze kiwango cha fedha kinachoingia kwenye mfumo wa uchumi. Uzalishaji wa bidhaa unaweza kuhimizwa kwa kuweka policies ambazo ni pro-uzalishaji; mfano kupunguza wingi na milolongo ya kodi, kuwasaidia wakulima wa Tanzania kuzalisha more efficiently, kuwekeza zaidi kwenye sekta za uzalishaji mali badala ya utumiaji, n.k.

    Kupunguza kiwango cha fedha kwenye mzunguko ni kuangalia chanzo kikubwa cha fedha zinazoingia kwenye mzunguko. Kwa Tanzania chanzo hicho ni serikali. Inflation inatuonesha kuwa serikalini watu wanalipana fedha nyingi kuliko mchango wao katika mfumo wa uchumi. Kwa hiyo serikali iangalie mianya mingi ya malipo yasiyokuwa ya lazima na yote hayo yazuiliwe. Ibadirishe mifumo na taratibu ili kuzuia malipo malipo yanayofanyika ovyo ovyo. Savings hizi zinazotokana na serikali kubana matumizi zielekezwe kwenye private sector katika mfumo wa upunguzaji wa kodi ili kuwa-motisha wafanyabiashara kuwekeza zaidi.

    Inflationa Tanzania huwezi kuipunguza kwa kufanya currency manipulation. Uchumi wetu asilimia kubwa ni informal na hatuna taarifa za kutosha sera hizo zitakuwa na madhara gani kwa uchumi; tunabahatisha.
     
  13. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Indeed,

    That is why nasema BOT measures of using monetary approach to save shilling will be a pointless measure. Ningelikuwa gavana binafsi ningelikubali inflation iendelee (kwani itakuja kushuka hali ya uchumi wa kidunia ikitengamaa) but ningeliwahimiza Wizara ya Fedha na Serikali kwa ujumla kubana matumizi. Kupunguza ufisadi na government spending. Kuweka tarrifs on imported goods (especially vitu vya plastic nk) ambavyo sisi wenyewe pia tunazalisha. Ili kuongeza bei za bidhaa ambazo pia Tanzania zinapatikana.

    Michele ya kutoka nje ya nchi ni bei rahisi kuliko mchele wa mbeya (why?) , sukari hivyo hivyo, nk. Weka duty on these imported goods ili wakulima wapate kupunguziwa mzigo wa kodi na uwezo wa kuuza nafaka zao. Tukiweza kupunguza gharama za matumizi ya serikali na kuzuia mianya ya ufisadi pesa hizo zitaweza kutumika kupunguza kodi katika bidhaa kama mafuta, VAT nk ili kupunguza mzigo wa gharama za maisha ya mtanzania.

    Vile vile serikali ijitahidi kulitatua tatizo la umeme kwani gharama za uzalishaji zinaongezeka kila siku kwakuwa wazalishaji wanatumia magenereta kutengeneza bidhaa ambapo gharama hizo zinaelekezwa moja kwa moja kwa mtumiaji. Inflation nchini itapungua umeme ukiwa unapatikana kwa uhakika na sio bei ya mafuta duniani (ijapokuwa mfumuko wa bei ya mafuta nao upo bado ila unachangia kwa kiwango kidogo sana katika inflation nchini).


    Puting foreign money into the economy will not work zaidi ya kufanya hali ya maisha iwe ngumu zaidi.
     
  14. WAHEED SUDAY

    WAHEED SUDAY JF-Expert Member

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    Sera zisizotekelezeka, a'm tired of this please!
     
  15. n

    ngwendu JF-Expert Member

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    Nivizuri umeweka wazi uelewa wako, usijali kuwa maimuna si tatizo. Mara nyingi huwa nashangaa kwa michango ya wengi wasiokuwa na uelewa mzuri juu ya mambo mengi yanayojadiliwa humu. Huwa nasemaga hivi. ukisoma posts za wenzako uta-enjoy zaidi kuliko kuchangia kitu ambacho hukielewi au pumba. Lakini tatizo lingine nilionalo ni kuwa ukiwa mwanachama wa chadema, akili zako huwa zinafungiwa sandukuni, na matokeo yake ni kichwa maji.
     
  16. K

    Kudi Shauri Senior Member

    #16
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    It is an issue of fiscal policy and not monetary policy. Minister Mkulo should raise tariffs on imports e.g. shangingis; toilet paper; food items etc which we are currently importing. Other measures could include high licence fees for all luxury cars, castle tax for all residential buildings of above say 400 square metres built area. Further government should curb all unnecessary expenditure e.g. poshos; seminars and workshops, foreign trips etc. All these measures will reduce current account deficit as well as restore a balance in the government budget which is now heavily relying on borrowing[printing money] from the banking sector.
     
  17. M

    Mkandara Verified User

    #17
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    Hakika la kunuka halina Ubani...Uchumi wetu umeshavunda hivyo hata wakitumia manukato gani haiwezi kupoteza ukweli kwamba Tanzania tupo ktk hali mbaya sana kiuchumi, donda ndugu la cancer ya Ufisadi linanuka na haliwezi kufichwa kwa kutiwa manukato..Na maadam sisi ni consumers ambao tunaagiza na kutumia kuliko uwezo wa mfuko wetu na tumeshindwa kuwekeza mikopo ktk sehemu muhimu za uzalishaji isipokuwa matumizi ya kujirusha...Hakuna msalie hapa tunakwenda na maji tu..Sii hawa hawa BoT mwezi March (kama sikosei) walitoa noti mpya na kuzisambaza mitaani? - Je kulikuwa na sababu gani?
     
  18. SOBY

    SOBY JF-Expert Member

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    Tunaweza kupunguza inflatio by far tukipunguza matumizi yetu ya mafuta by at least one-third.
     
  19. T

    Topical JF-Expert Member

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    Unajua mimi nafikiri tuwe wa kweli kwamba watu wame-crem keynesian model of money supply and demand ambayo kwa watu kama sisi tunaopenda kujua kitu kwa kuangalia "the opposite" hizo theory ni hoax wala shillingi haitapanda hata siku moja...

    Tuungalie mambo kwa mtazamo huu ..Ebu niambie tangu mwaka 1961 (uhuru) hadi leo kuna siku shillingi imekuwa na thamani kupita mwaka uliopita? simply sema hivi (au fikiri hivi) ...shillingi ya mwaka jana itakuwa na thamani kupita ya mwaka huu nakuendlea hadi kufa period!

    Uchumi unaoendeshwa na paper money (money without intrinsic value) itaendelea kushuka hadi i-burst (total collapse of the system)..

    Siyo Tanzania tu hadi US mambo ndio hivyo a yesterday dollar is more valuable than tommorrow dollar why? kwasababu watu wanasupply paper money (without intrinsic value) ili wapate zaidi through interest

    Solution: go back to GOLD money as mode of exchange (inflation problem solved) kwasababu gold has intrinsic value on it.
     
  20. SOBY

    SOBY JF-Expert Member

    #20
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    That's the same idea. Let's solve Tanzania problems,blanket recommendations kama hizi hazitufikishi popote. Golkd inashuka na kupanda thamani....but you have to look at data from like 200 yrs to understand.
    Tunatumia 10bn$ kuimport, 2bn$ ni mafuta. One third ya mafuta Tanzania yanatumika kwa mambo yasiyo muhimu thats over 500m$ that can be kept here.
    More public transportation,more use of coal as a source of energy, gas and water.
    We need a policy that will increase our efficiency/productivity. But big oil is very influencial to our government that they turn a blind eye when kit comes to our oil dependency.
     
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