Missile of the Nation
JF-Expert Member
- May 24, 2018
- 13,497
- 51,090
The current regime has invested heavily in propaganda. Making people believe that it is impossible to defeat president Magufuli in the forthcoming elections.
However, the situation in the country is not the way it is portrayed to be by the heavily pro Magufuli's press. The election in october is not going to be a piece of cake, It is going to be a very tough election, every vote shall be fiecely fought for.
There are things that will significantly hurt president Magufulis chances for the re-election
1. Magufuli's Economy on the person by person level isn't performing well
Even though it is said that the country has entered a middle income economy status but the individual by individual economic situation isn't good, people are still hurting so much. The ability of people to live good and decent life is diminishing day after day, with peoples pockets getting dry every single day, I don't see how President Magufuli is going to win the debate when the opposition wil raise up this issue. Honestly I don't see a miracle how president Magufuli will turn the tables to his favor on this very important issue
2. The issue of un-employment rate
Our yourth are coming from universities, high schools enmasse, there is no hope in the streets, the economy is not creating good descent jobs in a rate enough to accomodate our young people fresh from schools. The number of the un-employed in the streets is so huge. It will take the opposition a very easy energy to convince them of the alternative, With a well crafted message of hope and substance to this group, the opposition will have an easy ride to this demography whereas president Magufuli will have a steep mountain to climb in order to garner support. 5 years ago Magufuli championed himself in his campaigns as a person who will solve this problem, but up to this moment, his government has not employed enmasse as compared to his predecessor who is well remembered for offering many jobs during his 10 years tenure in office.
3. The Shaky private sector
The private sector has shrinked a great deal under this government. Capital has shrinked, the once booming sector now is struggling, making hundreds of thousands of people to struggle even harder to make the ends meet. Even though president Magufuli took some measures to let Machingas to roam freely selling things after paying 20000 shillings (The amount which is paid under no any specific law, not through a financia act nor through street councils by-laws), however the relationship between the Machingas and the businessmen who supply them with goods is like a symbiotic relationship, when the businessmen are hurting due to heavy unrealistic taxations, the machingas get hurt too. This kind of a situation will be a catalyst for the Machingas decisions on the ballot box, and president Magufuli will certain be in a very tough situation
4. The issue of Civil servants
President Magufuli hasnt been friendly to civil servants, their benefits havent been a priority to him. Certainly this social group will be a very tough nut to crack. The opposition will be in a very good position to gain the support of this group, I dont konw how president Magufuli will turn the table and have an upperhand on this group of voters. The opposition will reap heavily on this group. And one thing about this group is that, It is an influencer group, these people can influence views of their dependents, so it is a very important group which will give Magufuli a tough time time to win.
Apart from the active members in the civil service, there are the retired ones, whose retirement benefits also have been a cat and mouse game. These seniors are complaining about delays of their benefits. While traditionally this group was one of the loyal groups to Chama cha Mapinduzi this is not going to be the case this time around. President Magufuli government hasn't made lives of our senior retirees good. Ostensibly this group is an open prize for the opposition to grab.
5. CCM is not that united, there are silent grudges.
Reforms that were enacted by president Magufuli, had so many people silently at loggerheads with him, so many people inside his party and outside were hurt greatly by his reforms, The CCM old guards aren't happy. With the crisis that ended with the expulsion from the party of the former Foreign minister, it is obvious that bis party is not wholly united under him, there is a silent dissent. Without a fully united CCM, Without people who are wholly heartedly ready to go house to house in search of votes, Magufuli is in deep very deep trouble. The opposition is energetic and with energy to go region by region, district by district, ward by ward, house by house in search of votes, It can surprise Chama cha Mapinduzi if Chama cha Mapinduzi takes things for granted after the The Magufuli regime had deployed so much force to curb the opposition from doing politics for the past five years.
6. Rage of Farmers
Since 2015, president Magufuli didn't take agriculture as a priority, he embarked on a controversial push on industrialization, which it self has seen a negligible achievement. He has today stopped issuing slogans of viwanda (industries), The most employing sector (Agriculture) didn't get a much needed push and hence farmers didn't benefit much under this government. The Cashew nuts saga is another straw that will break the back of the camel. Without much investment in agriculture, It will be very easy for the opposition to point the better alternative to the farmers who are the majority of voters, And quite frankly, president Magufuli will have a very tough situation in this regard.
7. Other groups which were hurt by Magufulis government.
Fishermen, People whose houses were demolished, The so called "Fake certificates" folks, all these people are not in good terms wih president Magufuli, apart from that, these people too have people who depend on them, they have friends and relatives, in towns and villages. These people won't find it any difficult to vote for the opposition.
Conclusions
In conclusion, I just foresee a very tough election ahead.
If the election is free and fair, I certainly don't see how president Magufuli is going to win.
What the opposition has to do is Unite. Unity and message that resonates well with the mass are the only things that are needed to have Magufuli go packing. If the Opposition won't unite then their chances to win this election will be minimal.
With Tundu Lissu or Bernad Membe being a torch bearer and with the support of the whole opposition, then President Magufuli's chances for the re-elections are extremely slim. The opposition will have higher chances to win this election.
The nation is only waiting to see what steps the opposition will take. If they will show maturity and put their selfishness aside, then they will be received with a warm welcome and this will not only assure them of a clear win but will give them a higher momentum towards the 2025 elections, however if they become shortsighted and refuse to unite, then it will be a very rough political path ahead. They will lose trust of the mass, which will even take decades to grasp again.
Opposition, this is your chance, this is your moment, Unite as one and victory is certain!
However, the situation in the country is not the way it is portrayed to be by the heavily pro Magufuli's press. The election in october is not going to be a piece of cake, It is going to be a very tough election, every vote shall be fiecely fought for.
There are things that will significantly hurt president Magufulis chances for the re-election
1. Magufuli's Economy on the person by person level isn't performing well
Even though it is said that the country has entered a middle income economy status but the individual by individual economic situation isn't good, people are still hurting so much. The ability of people to live good and decent life is diminishing day after day, with peoples pockets getting dry every single day, I don't see how President Magufuli is going to win the debate when the opposition wil raise up this issue. Honestly I don't see a miracle how president Magufuli will turn the tables to his favor on this very important issue
2. The issue of un-employment rate
Our yourth are coming from universities, high schools enmasse, there is no hope in the streets, the economy is not creating good descent jobs in a rate enough to accomodate our young people fresh from schools. The number of the un-employed in the streets is so huge. It will take the opposition a very easy energy to convince them of the alternative, With a well crafted message of hope and substance to this group, the opposition will have an easy ride to this demography whereas president Magufuli will have a steep mountain to climb in order to garner support. 5 years ago Magufuli championed himself in his campaigns as a person who will solve this problem, but up to this moment, his government has not employed enmasse as compared to his predecessor who is well remembered for offering many jobs during his 10 years tenure in office.
3. The Shaky private sector
The private sector has shrinked a great deal under this government. Capital has shrinked, the once booming sector now is struggling, making hundreds of thousands of people to struggle even harder to make the ends meet. Even though president Magufuli took some measures to let Machingas to roam freely selling things after paying 20000 shillings (The amount which is paid under no any specific law, not through a financia act nor through street councils by-laws), however the relationship between the Machingas and the businessmen who supply them with goods is like a symbiotic relationship, when the businessmen are hurting due to heavy unrealistic taxations, the machingas get hurt too. This kind of a situation will be a catalyst for the Machingas decisions on the ballot box, and president Magufuli will certain be in a very tough situation
4. The issue of Civil servants
President Magufuli hasnt been friendly to civil servants, their benefits havent been a priority to him. Certainly this social group will be a very tough nut to crack. The opposition will be in a very good position to gain the support of this group, I dont konw how president Magufuli will turn the table and have an upperhand on this group of voters. The opposition will reap heavily on this group. And one thing about this group is that, It is an influencer group, these people can influence views of their dependents, so it is a very important group which will give Magufuli a tough time time to win.
Apart from the active members in the civil service, there are the retired ones, whose retirement benefits also have been a cat and mouse game. These seniors are complaining about delays of their benefits. While traditionally this group was one of the loyal groups to Chama cha Mapinduzi this is not going to be the case this time around. President Magufuli government hasn't made lives of our senior retirees good. Ostensibly this group is an open prize for the opposition to grab.
5. CCM is not that united, there are silent grudges.
Reforms that were enacted by president Magufuli, had so many people silently at loggerheads with him, so many people inside his party and outside were hurt greatly by his reforms, The CCM old guards aren't happy. With the crisis that ended with the expulsion from the party of the former Foreign minister, it is obvious that bis party is not wholly united under him, there is a silent dissent. Without a fully united CCM, Without people who are wholly heartedly ready to go house to house in search of votes, Magufuli is in deep very deep trouble. The opposition is energetic and with energy to go region by region, district by district, ward by ward, house by house in search of votes, It can surprise Chama cha Mapinduzi if Chama cha Mapinduzi takes things for granted after the The Magufuli regime had deployed so much force to curb the opposition from doing politics for the past five years.
6. Rage of Farmers
Since 2015, president Magufuli didn't take agriculture as a priority, he embarked on a controversial push on industrialization, which it self has seen a negligible achievement. He has today stopped issuing slogans of viwanda (industries), The most employing sector (Agriculture) didn't get a much needed push and hence farmers didn't benefit much under this government. The Cashew nuts saga is another straw that will break the back of the camel. Without much investment in agriculture, It will be very easy for the opposition to point the better alternative to the farmers who are the majority of voters, And quite frankly, president Magufuli will have a very tough situation in this regard.
7. Other groups which were hurt by Magufulis government.
Fishermen, People whose houses were demolished, The so called "Fake certificates" folks, all these people are not in good terms wih president Magufuli, apart from that, these people too have people who depend on them, they have friends and relatives, in towns and villages. These people won't find it any difficult to vote for the opposition.
Conclusions
In conclusion, I just foresee a very tough election ahead.
If the election is free and fair, I certainly don't see how president Magufuli is going to win.
What the opposition has to do is Unite. Unity and message that resonates well with the mass are the only things that are needed to have Magufuli go packing. If the Opposition won't unite then their chances to win this election will be minimal.
With Tundu Lissu or Bernad Membe being a torch bearer and with the support of the whole opposition, then President Magufuli's chances for the re-elections are extremely slim. The opposition will have higher chances to win this election.
The nation is only waiting to see what steps the opposition will take. If they will show maturity and put their selfishness aside, then they will be received with a warm welcome and this will not only assure them of a clear win but will give them a higher momentum towards the 2025 elections, however if they become shortsighted and refuse to unite, then it will be a very rough political path ahead. They will lose trust of the mass, which will even take decades to grasp again.
Opposition, this is your chance, this is your moment, Unite as one and victory is certain!
