Elections 2010 With 70% Voters' turnout, Slaa Wins; Less than that Kikwete Wins - My Prediction:

[shungurui]

No, Mzee Mwanakijiji! It is the other way round! It was low voter turnout that helped CHADEMA got the votes they garnered! Wanaoipenda CCM ndiyo wengi hawakwenda kupiga kura. It is CCM members who are normally complacent and don't turn out in big numbers to vote, especially women and the aged. "CCM tutashinda tu hata nisipokwenda kupiga kura", they would say. But show me vijana wa CHADEMA ambao this time around hawakwenda kupiga kura? Wakisaidiwa na wasaliti wenye vinyongo BINAFSI ndani ya CCM (siyo walioichoka CCM). Complacency hii ya wanaCCM kutokwenda kupiga kura, na mahali pengine siyo complacency bali vitisho na hila za wapinzani dhidi ya wanawake na wazee wa CCM, (of course na usaliti) vikitafutiwa dawa na CCM, come 2015 wapinzani watashangaa! Wabunge wao watakuwa wachache Bungeni kuliko ilivyokuwa 2005 - 2010.

Tatizo lingine ni uharisia wa hizo figure.hivyo analysis inakuwa haitaonyesha uharisia

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Pumba tupu, when did Tanzania have 70% of voters voting?

from independence until 2005 Tanzania has never had voters turnout less than 70 percent.. the first time ni 2010 ikiwa na voters ya 42%

 

[Jasusi]

from independence until 2005 Tanzania has never had voters turnout less than 70 percent.. the first time ni 2010 ikiwa na voters ya 42%

And that is because kura zilichakachuliwa na NEC. Sijaona sababu yeyote uchaguzi wa 2010 uwe na lower turn out wakati uhamasikaji ulikuwa wa hali ya juu sana. The only way Kikwete won was for NEC to "claim" that the voter turn out was 42%. A claim that cannot be independently verified, by the way.

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

And that is because kura zilichakachuliwa na NEC. Sijaona sababu yeyote uchaguzi wa 2010 uwe na lower turn out wakati uhamasikaji ulikuwa wa hali ya juu sana. The only way Kikwete won was for NEC to "claim" that the voter turn out was 42%. A claim that cannot be independently verified, by the way.

halafu ukimsahihisha mtu hana ujasiri wa kukiri kuwa alikosea; na wala haoneshi kushtusha na matokeo kuwa katika chaguzi 9 zilizotangulia hatujawahi kuwa na asilimia chini ya 70 lakini 2010 ati asilimia 42!!!

 

[Keykey]

from independence until 2005 Tanzania has never had voters turnout less than 70 percent.. the first time ni 2010 ikiwa na voters ya 42%

Mkuu, your prediction turned out to be true that goes without saying that your analysis of the context at the time was realistic!

 

[Albedo]

No, Mzee Mwanakijiji! It is the other way round! It was low voter turnout that helped CHADEMA got the votes they garnered! Wanaoipenda CCM ndiyo wengi hawakwenda kupiga kura. It is CCM members who are normally complacent and don't turn out in big numbers to vote, especially women and the aged. "CCM tutashinda tu hata nisipokwenda kupiga kura", they would say. But show me vijana wa CHADEMA ambao this time around hawakwenda kupiga kura? Wakisaidiwa na wasaliti wenye vinyongo BINAFSI ndani ya CCM (siyo walioichoka CCM). Complacency hii ya wanaCCM kutokwenda kupiga kura, na mahali pengine siyo complacency bali vitisho na hila za wapinzani dhidi ya wanawake na wazee wa CCM, (of course na usaliti) vikitafutiwa dawa na CCM, come 2015 wapinzani watashangaa! Wabunge wao watakuwa wachache Bungeni kuliko ilivyokuwa 2005 - 2010.

Mkuu amka Usingizini

 

[Jasusi]

halafu ukimsahihisha mtu hana ujasiri wa kukiri kuwa alikosea; na wala haoneshi kushtusha na matokeo kuwa katika chaguzi 9 zilizotangulia hatujawahi kuwa na asilimia chini ya 70 lakini 2010 ati asilimia 42!!!

Lakini Mwanakjj nakulaumu wewe kwa kuwapa NEC mwangaza wa kuchakachua. Walipoisoma makala hii wakapata wazo la kupunguza idadi ya wapiga kura ili kuhalalisha ushindi haramu wa Kikwete.