Mzee Mwanakijiji
Platinum Member
- Mar 10, 2006
- 33,475
- 39,991
The Victory for Dr. Slaa depends on the high voters turn out. This is important because it will make it very hard to manipulate votes in one polling area, more votes less vote manipulation because votes will cancel each other out by higher turnout.
But even more, a high turn out will bring more independent voters compared to lower turn out. If the turn out is around less or around 60 percent that will favor CCM because CCM has about 4 million of whom about 3/4 will vote for him. With lower turn out but higher CCM's turn out Kikwete wins at about 65 - 69 percent range.
However, if more people turn out at around 70 and nothing happen between now and Sunday to make people change their mind (assuming JK's live session on Friday is not inspiring to the voters) then Dr. Slaa will win this election by about 55-60 percent of all votes.
What I'm saying is this, if you want CCM candidate to win, you know WHAT TO DO (i mean you can vote for MP and ur councilor); BUT if you really want Dr. Slaa to win well do the needful.. nenda kapige kura!
No matter who wins Tanzania will be there the next morning, so DON'T PANIC!
With the Parliamentary seats I totally believe that Chadema will suprise some bigwigs just like what happened during the primaries within CCM. Some mighty politicians will FALL. I believe Chadema will pick between 90-110 seats. All depending on voters turn out at the same ration as the presidential votes.
That is my prediction and I'm sticking to it.
But even more, a high turn out will bring more independent voters compared to lower turn out. If the turn out is around less or around 60 percent that will favor CCM because CCM has about 4 million of whom about 3/4 will vote for him. With lower turn out but higher CCM's turn out Kikwete wins at about 65 - 69 percent range.
However, if more people turn out at around 70 and nothing happen between now and Sunday to make people change their mind (assuming JK's live session on Friday is not inspiring to the voters) then Dr. Slaa will win this election by about 55-60 percent of all votes.
What I'm saying is this, if you want CCM candidate to win, you know WHAT TO DO (i mean you can vote for MP and ur councilor); BUT if you really want Dr. Slaa to win well do the needful.. nenda kapige kura!
No matter who wins Tanzania will be there the next morning, so DON'T PANIC!
With the Parliamentary seats I totally believe that Chadema will suprise some bigwigs just like what happened during the primaries within CCM. Some mighty politicians will FALL. I believe Chadema will pick between 90-110 seats. All depending on voters turn out at the same ration as the presidential votes.
That is my prediction and I'm sticking to it.