MALCOM LUMUMBA
JF-Expert Member
- Jul 26, 2012
- 20,897
- 63,783
I recently watched a Symposium hosted by Central European University, and the speaker was none other than the eminent and legendary Joseph Nye from Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
The topic was about a new cloud in the horizon, a potential storm, The Rising China and the fate of the United States led global order established right after 1945.
He succinctly assured his audience that, despite all the setbacks and challenges cascading the Western World, America will eventually emerge as an undisputed master of the 21st Century ahead of China. But is it so ??? Well, let's delve into the corridors of history.
Professor Nye reiterated a position held dearly by typical American neo-liberals, bureaucrats and technocrats: America is not only scientifically ahead of both China and Russia in terms of GDP, but also a custodian of all the cutting edge technologies that may prove disruptive, yet revolutionize mankind for centuries to come.
He boasted of America being ahead in critical research and nascent fields like Nano-technology, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, space technology and medicine. This is undisputedly accurate, but is it decisive ??? Well, let's walk more corridors.
To an avid student of foreign relations, the following statement sounds too familiar thou often under-looked by the Mainstream Media: President Xi Jinping's "The Great Chinese Rejuvenation Speech" of 2012, where he assured the Communist Party of China that by 2035 China will be an unparalleled technological behemoth.
And really they have put up an effort to live up to this grandiose expectation. In 2018 Chinese scholars published more scientific works than their counter-peers in United States. This is a colossal achievement, yet still abysmally low compared to the entire scientific catalogue of research papers published by American scholars.
We may blush and shun these statistics, but the figures are enough to startle an ordinary thinking individual. Technology is pivotal to the development of any civilized society. It sustains the very fabric of the socio-economic and socio-political tenets of a modern state. In 1871, it was technological prowess that morphed the 300 Prussian led Germanic states into what we came to know as Imperial Germany.
Notable historians, from across the world state that: Up until 1914 Great Britain and American had a total of 26000 world class engineers (Britain 6000, America 20000), while Imperial Germany alone had a total of 60000 notable engineers. Germany also paraded a legion of world's prolific writers and enlightened philosophers, the ones with an aptitude to be desired.
Building a dialectical progression reflecting what I wrote, critics may argue otherwise. And some even castigate my analogy as a figment of imagination. Afterall, China is not Imperial Germany which was a democratic, Judeo-Christian, white civilization in the heart of Europe. Owing to this train of thought, these intellectuals are in open denial against the harsh realities of history:
"The Soviet Union being an authoritarian nation it was, used technology to transform a ramshackle plutocracy headed by the Romanovs into a nuclear state that manhandled The dreaded Nazi War Machine (The Wehrmacht) during the Second World War. It didn't end there, the Communist dictatorship won the early phase of the Space-Race by sending the first manmade satellite into the orbit, a first animal into the orbit, and finally a first human into the orbit"
One thing to bear in mind is this: Prof Michio Kaku once said, "unlike China, 50% of American Intellectuals with PhD's are foreign born, most of whom are Green-Card Elites. The Green-Card is America's Ultimate weapon" . This assertion is what Prof Mahmood Mamdani referred to as A Culture-Talk Syndrome, which is not sensible to cling on: Because at the end of the tether, Technological prowess pays off, either be it achieved through Green-Card Elites or be it achieved through Educated Peasantry. The point I'm trying to make here builds on the previous statement, Technological prowess pays off, either be it achieved through Democratic Processes or be it achieved through Dictatorial Processes.
Now, on the other side of the spectrum, even Real-Politik Intellectuals like John Mearsheimer normally recites America's Resume of crushing peer competitors, like Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, The Former Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and The British Empire into the scrap heaps of history. And like his counterpart Joseph Nye, he believes that America would sink deep into unprecedented levels to ensure that China is also thrown into a dustbin of history. But is this the case ??? Well, some scholars think otherwise:
Prof. Kishore Mahbubani disagrees with such self-assurances. He reminds Americans like John Mearsheimer what George F. Kenan (The Grand-Master of Containment Policy) used say: "The success of America's foreign policy depends much on domestic spiritual vitality, reliable alliances and attitude of America as a superpower towards other nations" Kenan's advice is an anathema to Washington's political establishment, to precise the likes of Donald J. Trump.
From Kenan's assessment America would be sailing into uncharted waters when her domestic spiritual vitality has fallen short. America has to be united both at home and across the Atlantic if she is to emerge victorious in The Great Game against China.
In countering Prof. Kishore Mahbubani, some scholars like Prof. Dany Quah argue that America has a very resilient political system which has taken lots of deadly blows in her 245 years life span. The 19th and 20th Centuries American politics were haunted by an awful specter manifesting through surreal events like wars , slavery, assassinations and economic depressions, yet America vigilantly sailed through. He believes that even now, America seems to be divided at home, but will eventually sail through.
He reiterates that, it is America that was divided at home as it is now, that went on to obliterate the Spanish-Empire in 1898, and cornered her into making concessions which gave America Suzerain over the Spanish colonies of Cuba and the Philippines. Such a brazen display of force. But can America still do it ???
Can America with diminishing allies and vanishing economic prowess still stand tall against a Chinese Colossus ??? American Intellectuals like Graham T. Allison also from The Harvard Kennedy School of Government thinks not. Graham believes that China has already undertaken America in many aspects of development like infrastructure and international trade. To him China HAVE BUILT ROME IN A DAY.
In his famous academic work, Destined For War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap , Graham makes a brilliant point which gives a new perspective into America-China Rivalry. China may be ahead of America but that may not herald the fall of America. Reinforcing what Kishore Mahbubani , Graham claims China will win against America but only in some aspects, because this world is multipolar and interdependent.
Graham goes further to advice both America and China to make painful adjustments in order to avert the possibility of a looming war. A visible theme from his entire book is that of The Thucydides Trap. A theory which explains that when a new nation rises to prominence threatening the status of the predominant power, then war is inevitable.
In our case the rising power is China and the predominant power is the USA. Both powers are in a stiff competition heading toward a collision course, probably A World War . Supporting his theory he gave historical and analogical examples of 15 major events within a span of 500 years. Some relatable examples to our contemporary times are of competition between Imperial Germany VS The British Empire, The Soviet Union Vs The United States, The British Empire Vs The United States, The Spanish Empire Vs England.
So to finish this piece, the late Prof Stephen Cohen said that a country's greatness is measured on how it responds to chaos within it's borders. Things like outbreaks of disease, wars, natural disasters and economic shocks. Recently, the world bore witness of how America's ability to handle chaos has diminished, while some says it's Trump's fault but the reality is grin. Just look at Covid-19 Outbreak, The Capital Insurrections, Power Breakouts at Texas, Gun-Violence etc.
Boldly inferring, that America will still emerge as the undisputed master of the 21th Century is an overstatement that's in vogue, but blindfolded to a painful truth that we now live in Unipolar world. But also, skepticism to America's potential, especially in maintaining Pax-Americana in 21st century, is A WINE OF NAIVETY which observers like me are intoxicated with.
Asalaam Aleykum.
The topic was about a new cloud in the horizon, a potential storm, The Rising China and the fate of the United States led global order established right after 1945.
He succinctly assured his audience that, despite all the setbacks and challenges cascading the Western World, America will eventually emerge as an undisputed master of the 21st Century ahead of China. But is it so ??? Well, let's delve into the corridors of history.
Professor Nye reiterated a position held dearly by typical American neo-liberals, bureaucrats and technocrats: America is not only scientifically ahead of both China and Russia in terms of GDP, but also a custodian of all the cutting edge technologies that may prove disruptive, yet revolutionize mankind for centuries to come.
He boasted of America being ahead in critical research and nascent fields like Nano-technology, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, space technology and medicine. This is undisputedly accurate, but is it decisive ??? Well, let's walk more corridors.
To an avid student of foreign relations, the following statement sounds too familiar thou often under-looked by the Mainstream Media: President Xi Jinping's "The Great Chinese Rejuvenation Speech" of 2012, where he assured the Communist Party of China that by 2035 China will be an unparalleled technological behemoth.
And really they have put up an effort to live up to this grandiose expectation. In 2018 Chinese scholars published more scientific works than their counter-peers in United States. This is a colossal achievement, yet still abysmally low compared to the entire scientific catalogue of research papers published by American scholars.
We may blush and shun these statistics, but the figures are enough to startle an ordinary thinking individual. Technology is pivotal to the development of any civilized society. It sustains the very fabric of the socio-economic and socio-political tenets of a modern state. In 1871, it was technological prowess that morphed the 300 Prussian led Germanic states into what we came to know as Imperial Germany.
Notable historians, from across the world state that: Up until 1914 Great Britain and American had a total of 26000 world class engineers (Britain 6000, America 20000), while Imperial Germany alone had a total of 60000 notable engineers. Germany also paraded a legion of world's prolific writers and enlightened philosophers, the ones with an aptitude to be desired.
Building a dialectical progression reflecting what I wrote, critics may argue otherwise. And some even castigate my analogy as a figment of imagination. Afterall, China is not Imperial Germany which was a democratic, Judeo-Christian, white civilization in the heart of Europe. Owing to this train of thought, these intellectuals are in open denial against the harsh realities of history:
"The Soviet Union being an authoritarian nation it was, used technology to transform a ramshackle plutocracy headed by the Romanovs into a nuclear state that manhandled The dreaded Nazi War Machine (The Wehrmacht) during the Second World War. It didn't end there, the Communist dictatorship won the early phase of the Space-Race by sending the first manmade satellite into the orbit, a first animal into the orbit, and finally a first human into the orbit"
One thing to bear in mind is this: Prof Michio Kaku once said, "unlike China, 50% of American Intellectuals with PhD's are foreign born, most of whom are Green-Card Elites. The Green-Card is America's Ultimate weapon" . This assertion is what Prof Mahmood Mamdani referred to as A Culture-Talk Syndrome, which is not sensible to cling on: Because at the end of the tether, Technological prowess pays off, either be it achieved through Green-Card Elites or be it achieved through Educated Peasantry. The point I'm trying to make here builds on the previous statement, Technological prowess pays off, either be it achieved through Democratic Processes or be it achieved through Dictatorial Processes.
Now, on the other side of the spectrum, even Real-Politik Intellectuals like John Mearsheimer normally recites America's Resume of crushing peer competitors, like Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, The Former Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and The British Empire into the scrap heaps of history. And like his counterpart Joseph Nye, he believes that America would sink deep into unprecedented levels to ensure that China is also thrown into a dustbin of history. But is this the case ??? Well, some scholars think otherwise:
Prof. Kishore Mahbubani disagrees with such self-assurances. He reminds Americans like John Mearsheimer what George F. Kenan (The Grand-Master of Containment Policy) used say: "The success of America's foreign policy depends much on domestic spiritual vitality, reliable alliances and attitude of America as a superpower towards other nations" Kenan's advice is an anathema to Washington's political establishment, to precise the likes of Donald J. Trump.
From Kenan's assessment America would be sailing into uncharted waters when her domestic spiritual vitality has fallen short. America has to be united both at home and across the Atlantic if she is to emerge victorious in The Great Game against China.
In countering Prof. Kishore Mahbubani, some scholars like Prof. Dany Quah argue that America has a very resilient political system which has taken lots of deadly blows in her 245 years life span. The 19th and 20th Centuries American politics were haunted by an awful specter manifesting through surreal events like wars , slavery, assassinations and economic depressions, yet America vigilantly sailed through. He believes that even now, America seems to be divided at home, but will eventually sail through.
He reiterates that, it is America that was divided at home as it is now, that went on to obliterate the Spanish-Empire in 1898, and cornered her into making concessions which gave America Suzerain over the Spanish colonies of Cuba and the Philippines. Such a brazen display of force. But can America still do it ???
Can America with diminishing allies and vanishing economic prowess still stand tall against a Chinese Colossus ??? American Intellectuals like Graham T. Allison also from The Harvard Kennedy School of Government thinks not. Graham believes that China has already undertaken America in many aspects of development like infrastructure and international trade. To him China HAVE BUILT ROME IN A DAY.
In his famous academic work, Destined For War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap , Graham makes a brilliant point which gives a new perspective into America-China Rivalry. China may be ahead of America but that may not herald the fall of America. Reinforcing what Kishore Mahbubani , Graham claims China will win against America but only in some aspects, because this world is multipolar and interdependent.
Graham goes further to advice both America and China to make painful adjustments in order to avert the possibility of a looming war. A visible theme from his entire book is that of The Thucydides Trap. A theory which explains that when a new nation rises to prominence threatening the status of the predominant power, then war is inevitable.
In our case the rising power is China and the predominant power is the USA. Both powers are in a stiff competition heading toward a collision course, probably A World War . Supporting his theory he gave historical and analogical examples of 15 major events within a span of 500 years. Some relatable examples to our contemporary times are of competition between Imperial Germany VS The British Empire, The Soviet Union Vs The United States, The British Empire Vs The United States, The Spanish Empire Vs England.
So to finish this piece, the late Prof Stephen Cohen said that a country's greatness is measured on how it responds to chaos within it's borders. Things like outbreaks of disease, wars, natural disasters and economic shocks. Recently, the world bore witness of how America's ability to handle chaos has diminished, while some says it's Trump's fault but the reality is grin. Just look at Covid-19 Outbreak, The Capital Insurrections, Power Breakouts at Texas, Gun-Violence etc.
Boldly inferring, that America will still emerge as the undisputed master of the 21th Century is an overstatement that's in vogue, but blindfolded to a painful truth that we now live in Unipolar world. But also, skepticism to America's potential, especially in maintaining Pax-Americana in 21st century, is A WINE OF NAIVETY which observers like me are intoxicated with.
Asalaam Aleykum.