Ushauri kutoka majarida ya uwekezaji kwa Kitila A. Mkumbo

[Lumwago]

Tunataka maendeleo kama nchi za Asia ! Demokrasia ni baada ya maendeleo. Mbona wawekezaji hawakatiki huko China na hakuna Demokrasia?

Demokrasia na maendeleo Ni pacha. China Ni nchi ya chama kimoja, uchaguzi wao hawapindui matokeo ya udiwani Wala ubunge wa chama kingine. Nina mengi ya kukueleza lkn kwa kifupi umeelewa.

 

[Mohamed Abubakar]

Nimefurahi sana kwa kuona uteuzi wako na nina amini ukifanya kazi kwa kutaka kubadilisha sura ya uwekezaji nchini Tanzania najua utaweza.

Nchi yetu ina uwezo wa kukaribisha uwekezaji mpaka dollars billion 130 kwa kipindi cha miaka 5 ijayo kama utakubali ushauri na utaweza kumshauri mkulu JPM katika mambo ambayo unadhani huna uwezo wa kuamua wewe mwenyewe.

Mkulu anamawazo mapana sana ukimsikiliza kwa karibu na ukaudurusu muono wake katika sekta mbali mbali.

Watanzania nchi hii ni yetu na nijukumu letu kuhakikisha tunafanikiwa kwa kutoa ushauri sahihi, wengine utekelezaji wa naamuzi ya kuboresha uchumi yatatufaidisha moja kwa moja kwa kuwa ni washiriki katika naeneo mbalili mbali ya kiuchumi.

Kwa usomi ulionao , sihitaji kukuchosa na andiko refu ila nakuachia references ambazo mimi nimezisoma kwa undani na kuzirudia rudia bila hesabu.

Endelea mkuu: references.

Alfaro, L., Kalemli-Ozcan, S. and Sayek, S. (2009), FDI, productivity and financial development, World Economy, 32(1), 111-136.

Amendolagine, V., Boly, A., Coniglio, N. D., Prota, F. and Seric, A. (2013), FDI and Local Linkages in Developing Countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, World Development, 50, 41-56.

Barnes, J. and Morris, M. (2008), “Staying alive in the global automotive industry: What can developing economies learn from South Africa about linking into global value chains?”, The European Journal of Development Research, 20(1), 31-55.

Barnes, J., Black, A. and Techakanont, K. (2015), “Industrial Policy, Multinational Strategy and Domestic Capability: A Comparative Analysis of the Development of South Africa’s and Thailand’s Automotive Industries”. The European Journal of Development Research.

Blalock, G. and Gertler, P. J. (2008), “Welfare gains from foreign direct investment through technology transfer to local suppliers”, Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 402-421.

Boly, A., Coniglio, N. D. and Prota, F. A. (2015), Which Domestic Firms Benefit from FDI? Evidence from Selected African Countries. Development Policy Review, 33(5), 615–636.

Boly, A., Coniglio, N. D., Prota, F. and Seric, A. (2014), Diaspora Investments and Firm Export Performance in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries. World Development, 59, 422-433.

Donaubauer, J., Neumayer, E. and Nunnenkamp, P. (2016), Financial Market Development in Host and Source Countries and Its Effects on Bilateral FDI, Kiel Working Paper 2029. Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft.

Godart, O. and Görg, H. (2013), “Suppliers of Multinationals and the Forced Linkage Effect: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 94(C), 393-404.

Görg, H. and Seric, A. (2016), “Linkages with Multinationals and Domestic Firm Performance: The Role of Assistance for Local Firms”, European Journal of Development Research, 28(4), 605-624.

Görg, H. and Strobl, E. (2005), “Spillovers from Foreign Firms through Worker Mobility: An Empirical Investigation”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107(4), 693-709.

Görg, H. and Kersting, E. (Forthcoming), “Vertical Integration and Supplier Finance”, Canadian Journal of Economics.

Harding, T. and Javorcik, B. S. (2011), “Roll Out the Red Carpet and They Will Come: Investment Promotion and FDI Inflows”, Economic Journal, 121(557), 1445-1476.

Harding, T. and Javorcik, B. S. (2012), “Foreign Direct Investment and Export Upgrading”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 964-980.

Javorcik, B. S. and Spatareanu, M. (2005), Disentangling FDI Spillover Effects: What Do Firm Perceptions Tell Us?, in Moran, T. H., Graham, E. M. and Blomström, M. (Eds.), Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, Centre for Global Economics.

Javorcik, B. S., Keller, W. and Tybout, J. R. (2006), “Openness and Industrial Responses in a Wal-Mart World: A Case Study of Mexican Soaps, Detergents and Surfactant Producers”, The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper (12457).

Lewis, B. et al. (2001), “India: The growth imperative”. McKinsey Global Institute.

Moran, T. H. (2009), “Three threats: an analytical framework for the CFIUS process”. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Moran, T. H. (2014), “Foreign Investment and Supply Chains from Emerging Markets: Recurring Problems and Demonstrated Solutions”. Working Paper Series Peter G, Peterson Institute for International Economics (IIE)(14-12).

Moran, T. H., Görg, H. and Seric, A. (2016), Quality FDI and Supply-Chains in Manufacturing. Overcoming Obstacles and Supporting Development. UNIDO and Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Vienna Investment Conference 2016, Discussion Paper.

Pérez-Villar, L. and Seric, A. (2015), “Multinationals in Sub-Saharan Africa: Domestic Linkages and Institutional Distance”, International Economics, 142, 94-117.

Reich, R. (1990), “Who Is Us?”. Harvard Business Review, 68(1), 53-64.

Rhee, Y. W., Katterback, K. and White, J. (1990), Free Trade Zones in Export Strategies. Washington, DC: The World Bank Industry Development Division.

UNCTAD (2011), How to Create and Benefit from FDI-SME Linkages: Lessons from Malaysia and Singapore. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Bado umemchosha; kwa ufupi ungeeleza mapungufu yaliyopo kwenye fiscal na monetary policy za awamu hii ya JPM.

Kwani bila kumung'unya maneno Sera za kiuchumi ndivyo kikwazo kikuu cha wawwekezaji entrepreneurs

 

[Smart911]

Ngoja tuone...




Cc: mahondaw

 

[Gerald .M Magembe]

Kiufupi unachosema hapa ni kwamba utu wako ni nusu ya mnyama?

Ni mawazo ya ajabu sana haya.

Basi hatukutakiwa hata kuwaondoa wakoloni wakati ule, kwa sababu tulikuwa bado hatujafikia hatua ya kuitwa binaadam?

Ninakusikitikia sana kwa kuwa na mawazo ya aina hii.

Basi tuwaondoe madikteta walio[po sasa na badala yake tuwaweke wengine usiokula kutoka kwenye viganja vyao, tuone kama bado utakuwa unaimba wimbo huo.

Naomba nielimishwe hayo mambo manne, elimu haina mwisho. Hapa hakuna ushindani tunajaribu kuona kipi cha kufanya kwanza kufikia maendeleo.

Demokrasia au kupata mahitaji muhimu ya kijamii ( maendeleo), nini kianze kwanza na ili kingine kishamiri?.
Demokrasia inaweza kishamiri kwenye umasikini?
Au Nchi ikiendelea ni rahisi demokrasia kishamiri?

Historical fact za demokrasia zinaweza kupatikana kwa kufuatilia jinsi Demokrasia ilivyo anza na kuendelezwa Ulaya.

Ziko aina nyingi za utawala wa kidemokrasia, jee wewe unazungumzia demokrasia ipi ?.

Demokrasia ya kimagharibi? au Demokrasia ya Mashariki ya kati? au Mashariki ya mbali ?.

1) Demokrasia ni nini ?
2) Maendeleo ni nini ?
3) Utu ni nini ?
4) Haki za binadamu ni nini?

Naomba nisaidie hapo. Naona kadiri tunavyo changia tunakoroga kama sio wewe kukoroga. Karibu.

 

[Gerald .M Magembe]

Tanzania kuwa na "dairy cow" milioni saba nina mashaka, kama nilivyo na mashaka makubwa kwa Kenya kuwa na "Dairy cow" sawa na USA!

Na kama ni kweli Tanzania tunao ng'ombe hao kiasi cha kutuweka kwenye 'top ten' ya dunia, basi ni kwamba yote uliyoandika huko chini ni visingizio tu kama tulivyo na visingizio kwa kila jambo tusiloweza kulifanya vyema.

'Technology' ya kulisha ng'ombe bado tunaiona kama "rocket science' kwenye miaka hii? Sokoine hapa Morogoro miaka yote hii na maprofesa wote waliokwishapitia hapo na wahitimu wote katika eneo hili, hawakuweza kuleta mabadiliko ya maana katika eneo husika?

Kama kweli Tanzania inao ng'ombe kiasi kile, ni aibu kubwa sana kwa nchi hii kuagiza maziwa toka nje, ikiwa ni pamoja toka kwa majirani zetu Uganda na Kenya. Tutakuwa ni watu wenye matatizo makubwa. Kwanza hata walaji wa bidhaa hiyo hata milioni 10 haifiki, na bado hatuwezi kukidhi mahitaji yao?

Nisema kwa ufupi tu mkuu Freddie, sikubaliani kamwe na 'excuses' ulizotoa hapo kama 'justification' ya sisi kutoweza kujitosheleza kwa maziwa na bidhaa nyingine zitokanazo na maziwa.

Kama kuna "faida ya udikteta", mambo kama haya ndiyo yanayostahiri kufanyiwa aina fulani ya udikteta, ili wapumbavu waliomo kwenye maeneo kama haya wanaokwamisha juhudi za wakulima na wananchi kwa ujumla waonje joto ya jiwe.

Inaudhi sana.

Kama kuna "faida ya udikteta", mambo kama haya ndiyo yanayostahiri kufanyiwa aina fulani ya udikteta, ili wapumbavu waliomo kwenye maeneo kama haya wanaokwamisha juhudi za wakulima na wananchi kwa ujumla waonje joto ya jiwe.

Inaudhi sana.

KUMBE UDIKTETA UNAWEZA KUWA NA FAIDA TENA?

 

[Gerald .M Magembe]

Si Waziri alisema "tutayafanyia (kazi)? Yaani maoni yataolewayo JF?

Ukweli ni kwamba hahitaji kuja JF kujua matatizo yote haya..., mambo haya yapo wazi kabisa hata huko serikalini!

Samahani imenibidi nirudi kujibu hili, hata baada ya kuaga.

Eleza maono yako ya tufanye nini? Naona kukataa maoni ya wengine ua michango haitusaidii kama hatuna mbadala ambao wewe unaujua na utasaidia taifa. Tiririka.

 

[KalamuTena]

Naomba nielimishwe hayo mambo manne, elimu haina mwisho. Hapa hakuna ushindani tunajaribu kuona kipi cha kufanya kwanza kufikia maendeleo.

Demokrasia au kupata mahitaji muhimu ya kijamii ( maendeleo), nini kianze kwanza na ili kingine kishamiri?.
Demokrasia inaweza kishamiri kwenye umasikini?
Au Nchi ikiendelea ni rahisi demokrasia kishamiri?

Historical fact za demokrasia zinaweza kupatikana kwa kufuatilia jinsi Demokrasia ilivyo anza na kuendelezwa Ulaya.

Ziko aina nyingi za utawala wa kidemokrasia, jee wewe unazungumzia demokrasia ipi ?.

Demokrasia ya kimagharibi? au Demokrasia ya Mashariki ya kati? au Mashariki ya mbali ?.

1) Demokrasia ni nini ?
2) Maendeleo ni nini ?
3) Utu ni nini ?
4) Haki za binadamu ni nini?

Naomba nisaidie hapo. Naona kadiri tunavyo changia tunakoroga kama sio wewe kukoroga. Karibu.

Mkuu Gerald .M Magembe,

Badala ya mimi kujibu mzunguko wa maswali uliyouliza, ni rahisi zaidi kwako ueleze maendeleo yanazuiwa vipi na kuwepo demokrasia.

Unataka kweli nikujibu "Demokrasia ni nini,; utu ni nini na hayo mengine"? Basi kama hayo huyajui, sioni jinsi gani utaona umuhimu wake katika maisha ya binaadam yeyote.

Hapa naona unatafuta tu kuendeleza mjadala ambao hautatupeleka popote. Tutakuwa tunazungukia tu humo humo kwenye hizo 'definition' utakazotaka/kutotaka kuzisikia.

Nimekuuliza kwenye bandiko lililopita, kama upo tayari tuondoe huu udikteta tulionao sasa na tuweke ule wa akina Mbowe. Na wao tuwahimize kabisa wakaze kwelikweli kuliko huu mnaofanya nyinyi ili tupate hayo maendeleo unayoyashangilia katika hali hii ya sasa. Hukujibu lolote kuhusu hilo.

Kwa hiyo sina muda wa kupoteza kwa kuzungushwa katika vi-'definition' vya vitu vinavyofahamika kwa mtu yeyote mwenye akili timamu.

 

[KalamuTena]

Eleza maono yako ya tufanye nini? Naona kukataa maoni ya wengine ua michango haitusaidii kama hatuna mbadala ambao wewe unaujua na utasaidia taifa. Tiririka.

Usidhani nimeanza leo kwenye mambo haya ya maendeleo ya Tanzania. Hakuna kinachofutika JF, nisome utajua nasimamia wapi.

Mimi siandiki kwa kujifurahisha tu au kufurahisha na kusahau niliposimamia. Tafuta maono yangu hapa JF, utanielewa. Mimi sichangii kumfurahisha mtu; kama kuna wa kumfurahisha, basi ni Tanzania, basi.

Ulivyomvivu, hata katika mada hii, katika kujibishana na Freddie tu ungeelewa ninasimamia wapi.

 

[Freddie Matuja]

Nchi hii haijawahi kupata Rais anaelewa maana ya Uchumi.
Afanye nini apate nini...

Aliyopo na waliopita walitamani wapate nini lkn hawakujua wafanye nini....

Tatizo mpaka sasa hatuja pata Rais wa kutuvusha tunakotaka kwenda.

Nasikitika.

JPM is the game changer; na kuna mengi kafanya ambayo yanagusa wananchi kwa levels mbalimbali.

Ni busara kuwa na imani na kiongozi na kutoa ushauri kwa hoja na staha. Nadhani huu ndio msingi wa uwepo wa JF kama jukwaa la great thinkers.

Kuna wakati Misri iliwahi kumpata Farao aliepata ndoto ya miaka ya neema Misri ikifuatiwa na miaka ya njaa.

Bila shaka kumpata Rais JPM ambae ni decisive na yuko results oriented, imani yetu ni kuwa akikaa na wataalamu na wananchi tulio kwenye ground; na kushirikiana kama partners ili kuja na solution za kukuza biashara na uchumi, core mission ikiwa kuwashinda maadui Umasikini, Ujinga na maradhi;

Tanzania ya kesho itakuwa mahali bora pa kuishi kuliko jana na leo.

 

[Muju4]

Hii mada imenikumbusha maneno ya Hayati rais mstaafu wa awamu ya tatu mzee Mkapa mwaka 2016 alipokuwa akiongea katika uzinduzi wa kigoda cha mwalimu.
Pamoja na mengi aliyoyazungumza alihoji pamoja na sera zote za uchumi zilizopo zilizofungua milango kwa soko huria ni makampuni mangapi yameanzishwa na watanzania wazawa? kinachowazuia ni nini?
Nadhani hapa ndipo tatizo lilipo.
Watu Wana idea nzuri Sana ukisoma hapa zipo zimeelezwa na wadau hapo juu kuanzia za viwanda vya sukari, maziwa ya kumuuzia bakheresa nk.
Lakini swali ni je mbona hatufungui hivyo viwanda?
Kama tatizo mitaji mbona mwaka huu wa fedha TIB wamerudisha pesa serikalini kwa nini hazijatumika?
Ukweli ni kwamba hivi vitu vinahitaji msaada wa serikali kwa kuanzisha kitengo cha kuweza kuwasaidia watu wenye mawazo ya uwekezaji hasa katika utekelezaji wa miradi.
Kwa sababu bado hatuna watu wazoefu sana kwenye kusimamia miradi mikubwa serikali ingeanzisha hiki kitengo ingesaidia kuwapa confidence wazawa kwenye kuwekeza.
La sivyo tutabaki tu kuchuuza kununua china kuleta hapa kurepack basi hatutaweza kutengeneza makampuni ya maana ya kuzalisha bidhaa.

Good point

 

[Gerald .M Magembe]

Confidence of doing business in Tanzania.

Investment is riskier than saving. Firms will only invest if they are confident about future costs, demand and economic prospects.

Keynes referred to the ‘animal spirits’ of businessmen as a key determinant of investment.

Keynes noted that confidence wasn’t always rational. Confidence will be affected by economic growth and interest rates, but also the general economic and political climate. If there is uncertainty (e.g. political turmoil) then firms may cut back on investment decisions as they wait to see how event unfold.

Evaluation – Confidence is often driven by economic growth and changes in the rate of economic growth. It is another factor that makes investment cyclical in nature.

4. Inflation : how it works positively in Tanzania.

In the long-term, inflation rates can have an influence on investment. High and variable inflation tends to create more uncertainty and confusion, with uncertainties over the future cost of investment.

If inflation is high and volatile, firms will be uncertain at the final cost of the investment, they may also fear high inflation could lead to economic uncertainty and future downturn.

Countries with a prolonged period of low and stable inflation have often experienced higher rates of investment.

Evaluation – if low inflation is caused by a fall in demand and economic growth – then this low inflation will not, of itself, be sufficient to boost investment. The ideal is low inflationary and sustainable growth.

5. Productivity of capital in Tanzania.

Long-term changes in technology can influence the attractiveness of investment.

In the late nineteenth century, new technology such as Bessemer steel and improved steam engines meant firms had a strong incentive to invest in this new technology because it was much more efficient than previous technology.

If there is a slowdown in the rate of technological progress, firms will cut back investment as there are lower returns on the investment.