Game Theory
Platinum Member
- Sep 5, 2006
- 8,545
- 835
- Thread starter
- #41
jamani watu wa NY tupeni updates..mazingira yaoje ?
Yote tisa,kumi wataalam wa uchumi tuelezeni sisi ohe yakhe ku collapse kwa haya ma golden sachs ya dunia hii kutatuathiri vipi ili tufunge vibwebwe,maana sisi wengine haya ni mawenge tu,hatuelewei,too complicated.tunaomba mtueleze kwa lugha rahisi.
Kipindi iki ndio kizuri sana cha kununua gold na silver.....who knows....hali hii itaendelea mpaka lini?
Ben Bernake should now get ready to take a leaf or two from Mugabe's book on how to print money ;-)
PUNDIT, where in the world have you been? on the subject i think FDIC should open their own line of pizza parlors. It would save on costs and help with secrecy.GT,
Speaking of Tom Wolfe I just finished "Hooking Up". The guy's critical analysis is much needed in today's America.
On the financial end, anybody with more than the FDIC insured amount of mulla in banks should seriously consider either withdrawing of diversifying the risk.
But seriously,does the FDIC have the auditing chops to correctly value and model modern financially engineered products?
For example, what exactly is the risk for a large bank holding synthetic CDOs (composed of credit default swap agreements).
I would imagine that the FDIC staff is trained and most capable of recognizing problems in 'traditional' loan portfolios. Then again thats America for you ...they elected Bush baby as their prezidaaa
I'm just watching The Street, the suits are crazy today, all over. Even the canned CEO assurance acts are not doing anything since people can hardly tell a PR stunt to save face and rally confidence from a fact based sound assurance.
This Wall is surely gonna tumble some more. I hear it could very well be only hours before AIG follow suit, unless Warren Buffet agrees to pull some magic which does not look likely given the staggering figures which even the Oracle of Omaha may not be able to cough up. To the average Joe this means more unemployment, domino effects, perhaps even global repercussions in this age of interconnected markets.Just when the dollar was beginning to pick up speed everything is bouncing right back.
It's a byach that all this is happenning just as the oil price was beginning to self regulate, then you have the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and stuff.
I am pretty amazed about all of this. I do believe that MER needed someone to take them over, as going to the world for more capital over and over again wasn't going to work.
The day of reconning is coming closer for the others, as I believe now that BAC has MER and LEH has gone the way of the dinosaur that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are going to have to start admitting what they have on their books. I have seen figures for level 3 assets at all of these firms, which are assets marked to fiction or fantasy and not to reality.
I don't believe these entities were set up to act as pass throughs like mutual funds, insurance companies are actual banks and keeping evergreen assets on their books goes against all the accounting principals as far as i know...japo si mtaalam wa accounting.
Robert Prechter, a guy people like to pick on because he was early in predicing this stuff, pretty much described the day we are looking at here.
My best analysis might be flawed, but where does BAC come up with $50 billion to buy MER and what do they have left once the negative net worth of MER and CFC come to the top of the water? I find it highly doubtful that BAC had $100 billion in real worth at the peak of the market, so the acquirer themselves might be soon in the boat of LEH and AIG.
I am also skeptical of 10 insolvents writing $7 billion checks for a fund to bail out themselves. Lets see if any of them actually write the check and if so, is it going to be honored?
so far....
WM: -15%
ETFC: -9%
WB: -11%
C: -7%
Add one additional half for each failed bank?
On Greenspan, I think sometimes he is given too much credit for just presideng over a more prosperous and less perilous period than today. If you look at the trends that caused the current meltdown you will see that he is actually responsible for a lot of the slackness that caused such grave complacency and "The Bonfire..." culture. Most of the issues are not short term issues, they are long term issues and started in the reign of Greenspan.
The media was more interested all along in admiring AG's mastery of obfuscation than in looking into what he was obfuscating.
here is a video of Greenspan defending the lack of action in the bubble years
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m...h?[/media] v=m6b4qX_qm40
What can you say? it is just strange to hear it even with 20/20 hindsight.
..so long as unakula muhogo wa kisarawe, madafu ya bagamoyo, mlenda wa tabora na samaki nchanga wa ntwara, hautakuwa na matatizo.
..baba zako wenye kumiliki mabiashara makubwa na kufanya kazi kwenye makampuni ya kimataifa ndio matumbo yatapungua ukubwa.
..kalaga baho, usiwe na wasi.
Hizi bidhaa zinahitaji kusafirishwa (think price of oil), mazao haya yatahitaji pembejeo kwa aina moja ama nyingine, kama si mbolea basi hata vifaa vya uvuvi.Katika dunia ya leo, unless unataka kuishi maisha ya subsistence kwa kulima locally kila kitu unachokula Thoreau style, lazima trends za world markets zitakukaba tu.
Hata kama ni kwa kupungua kwa remittances za mjomba aliyeko majuu aliyepigwa palanja katika kubeba boksi za wafanyakazi wa Lehman Brothers kwa sababu wafanyakazi wenyewe wa Lehman Brothers wamepigwa palanja.
Na hata kama ukisema mimi mkulima simjui mtu yeyote wa kuniletea remittances, bado general level ya remmittances Tanzania inayopokea inaathiri kila mtu.
Jobs cull begins in London and New York as Lehman Brothers goes to the wall
· Rapid sale of Merrill Lynch confirms scale of crisis
· Venerable survivors of 1929 crash fall to credit crunch
David Teather and Andrew Clark in New York, Kathryn Hopkins The Guardian, Tuesday September 16 2008
Wall Street was convulsed yesterday by the most dramatic events yet in the unfolding credit crisis, as Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch agreed to be bought for $50bn as it sought to secure its future.
Lehman Brothers' options ran out late on Sunday after it failed to find a buyer, leaving more than $600bn owed to creditors in the US, Europe and Asia. Thousands of staff at the fourth largest bank on Wall Street face redundancy.
Stony-faced workers streamed into the bank's head office just above Times Square in midtown Manhattan yesterday, some with large sports bags to carry away the contents of their desks.
As well as dozens of journalists, a growing number of tourists photographed the scene. One worker leaving the office yelled out to the onlookers: "You're watching history, man."
It took just 48 hours of negotiations for Merrill to bargain away its 94-year history as an independent Wall Street brokerage by agreeing to the all-share deal. As with Lehman, it is likely to involve large job losses in New York but also in London, as the new owner of the firm nicknamed the "thundering herd" seeks to cut costs of $7bn a year.
Merrill's chief executive, John Thain, made initial contact with Bank of America on Saturday morning while he was holed up at New York's Federal Reserve for talks about the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
"Expectations for difficulties in the marketplace following Lehman's bankruptcy really led us to start thinking about what sort of transactions made sense for us," Thain told a press conference yesterday.
The crisis in the US financial markets, which began 13 months ago, appears to be escalating. Bear Stearns, another large investment bank, came close to failure and was bought at a knock-down price in March, and a little over a week ago Washington was forced to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are behind half the mortgages in the US.
The failure of Lehman Brothers is the end of one of the oldest firms on Wall Street, its roots going back to 1850. It is a devastating blow for the chief executive, Richard Fuld, who has been with Lehman his entire career and run the business since 1994. The bank employs more than 25,000 people, including 4,500 in the UK.
The firm was brought to its knees by ill-judged investments in mortgage finance and other real estate. In the third quarter, the business reported losses of $3.9bn after taking huge writedowns on the value of those investments.
Last Wednesday, Lehman announced a series of measures to cut its exposure to real estate and raise cash, but Wall Street was not convinced and confidence in the firm evaporated. Its shares had lost almost 95% of their value this year.
The Lehman bankruptcy is the largest ever in terms of assets held. Outside Lehman's New York offices yesterday, one excitable news anchor described the scene as the "ground zero of the financial crisis".
Workers at the bank said management had still not made any announcements internally. "People are getting their resumes together, but it is not the best time to be looking for a job in financial services," said one man, who asked not to be named. "Dick Fuld probably held on too long. If something had been done a few months ago, we could probably have survived or we could have been acquired instead of going bankrupt."
The company has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, allowing it to liquidate assets, which could take months or possibly years, while creditors are kept at bay. Lehman said it was exploring the sale of its broker-dealer subsidiaries, which were not included in the bankruptcy. It is also looking for buyers of its investment management division, including the asset manager Neuberger Berman.
The Financial Services Authority in London asked banks in the UK to disclose their exposure to Lehman.
The Lehman offices in the UK were essentially cut adrift and put into administration. There was an immediate ban on trading and staff were told to clear their desks. "It was surprisingly calm - there was a kind of blitz spirit in the sense that we were all in it together," one banker said. "It was made clear that there was no desire to have us hanging around."
Many have been told to return today for a briefing from the administrators. Employees hope to learn, among other things, whether they will receive monthly pay cheques due on September 21. "There's quite a lot of anger that things were allowed to get to this stage," he added.
Officials from the US treasury and the Federal Reserve had worked furiously to prevent Lehman going bust, and spent the weekend in meetings with Wall Street executives. Hope faded however when the two leading contenders, Barclays and Bank of America, walked away. Both had sought guarantees from Washington over Lehman's bad debts, a similar deal to the one brokered for Bear Stearns when JP Morgan acquired the firm. But the political will to pump further taxpayers' money into Wall Street wilted.
Renowned for its logo of a rampaging bull, Merrill Lynch was founded in 1914 by two entrepreneurs - Charles Merrill and Edmund Lynch - who met at a YMCA after moving to Manhattan.
Merrill employs 60,000 people in 40 countries. But the credit crunch has exposed huge liabilities on mortgage-related securities; Merrill has written off losses of more than $19bn and has been obliged to raise money from sovereign wealth funds from Singapore and the Middle East.
Bank of America trumpeted the deal as an opportunity to put together its vast US network of high-street banks with Merrill's roster of 16,000 financial advisers to provide an all-round service of stockbroking and investment to retail clients. The combined organisation will hold $2.5 trillion of clients' assets.
Describing the combination as a "major grand slam home run", Bank of America's chief executive Ken Lewis insisted that it was worth paying a premium of 1.8 times the book value of Merrill's assets.
At the official announcement of yesterday's deal, at Bank of America's headquarters, while both chief executives wore almost identical grey suits and red ties, Lewis grinned broadly while Thain clenched his hands, answered few questions and frowned down at the table.
Vox pop: Canary Wharf
'People were walking around in shock, girls were crying and guys were hugging and people were drinking lager and red wine in the canteen bar' Sphinx Patterson, personal trainer at Lehman Brothers
'I got an email on Sunday telling me to come in early and report to my desk and then everyone got told they were excused for the rest of the day. We are worried we won't get this month's pay cheque on Friday. I have to apply for a visa to stay in the UK now'
Duo Ai, research department
'It's unlikely anything is going to happen and everyone is finishing up. It's like a terrible death or like a massive earthquake'
Kirsty McCluskley, trading floor
'I just rented a flat with a six-month contract so I will have to find another job in London to finance it'
Edouard d'Archimbaud, first day on trading floor
'It is bad news for everyone. My career is screwed. Everyone is upset' Jack Reynolds, graduate trainee.
THANKS
but whats your input on the subject?