UPDATE: Mrejeo wa Hali ya EL-NIÑO na LA NIÑA

[JamiiForums]

MVUA zilizotarajiwa kusababishwa hali ya El Nino zinaelekea kuyeyuka kutokana na kutokea kwa mabadiliko ya ajabu katika bahari ya Pasifiki, Taarifa rasmi zinaeleza.

Taarifa hizo zimetolewa na Mamlaka ya Hali ya Hewa Tanzania (TMA) ikiwa imepewa nguvu na taarifa za vyombo vya kimataifa ikiwamo Shirikisho la Hali ya Hewa Duniani (WMO).

Katika kipindi cha Julai hadi Septemba 2012, hali ya joto la bahari ukanda wa tropikali wa bahari ya Pasifiki iliongezeka na kuwa juu ya wastani hali iliyoashiria kuwapo kwa El Nino hafifu.

Hata hivyo, hali ya mifumo ya upepo, mgandamizo wa hewa katika usawa wa bahari na mawingu, vilishindwa kuwiana na ongezeko hilo hafifu la joto la bahari.

Taarifa hiyo inaeleza kwamba kwa sasa hali ya joto la bahari katika ukanda wa kitropikali wa bahari ya Pasifiki imekuwa ya wastani, hali hii haiashirii kuwepo kwa aidha El Nino au La Nina.

Aidha, katika ukanda wa bahari ya Hindi unaopakana na Tanzania pamoja na joto la bahari kuwa juu ya wastani, mifumo ya upepo na mgandamizo wa hewa vimeendelea kusababisha upungufu wa unyevunyevu katika anga.

"Hali hii ya mabadiliko ya joto la bahari na mifumo ya hali ya hewa si ya kawaida na haijawahi kutokea katika miaka iliyopita," inaeleza taarifa ya TMA, leo Jumamosi, Novemba 24, 2012.

Kutokana na hali hii isiyo ya kawaida, taasisi zinazohusika na masualla ya hali ya hewa katika kanda ya Pembe ya Afrika (ICPAC) na kanda ya Kusini mwa Afrika (SADC-CSC) kwa mara ya kwanza zimeandaa warsha ya wataalamu wa hali ya hewa ikiwamo Tanzania.

Warsha hizo zitakazofanyika Nairobi, Kenya na Lusaka, Zambia, itahusisha kufanyika kwa uchambuzi wa mifumo ya hali ya hewa na kutoa mrejeo wa mwelekeo wa mvua za msimu katika ukanda husika.

Taarifa kamili soma taarifa ya TMA na WMO iliyoambatishwa hapa:

​

Taarifa hii inatoa mrejeo wa hali ya joto la bahari (El Niño na La Niña) kwa kipindi cha Julai hadi Novemba, 2012.

Hali ya sasa na mwelekeo wa Hali ya joto la Bahari:
Katika kipindi cha Julai hadi Septemba, 2012, hali ya joto la bahari ukanda wa tropikali wa Bahari ya Pasifiki iliongezeka na kuwa juu ya wastani hali iliyoashiria kuwepo kwa El Niño hafifu, hata hivyo hali ya mifumo ya upepo, mgandamizo wa hewa katika usawa wa bahari na mawingu vilishindwa kuwiana na ongezeko hilo hafifu la joto la bahari.

Katika kipindi cha miezi ya hivi karibuni hadi sasa hali ya joto la bahari katika ukanda wa tropikali wa Bahari ya Pasifiki imekuwa ya wastani, hali hii haiashirii kuwepo kwa aidha El Niño au La Niña. Aidha katika ukanda wa Bahari ya Hindi unaopakana na nchi yetu pamoja na joto la bahari kuwa la juu ya wastani, mifumo ya upepo na mgandamizo wa hewa vimeendelea kusababisha upungufu wa unyevunyevu katika anga. Hali hii ya mabadiliko ya joto la bahari na mifumo ya hali ya hewa si ya kawaida na haijawahi kutokea katika miaka iliyopita.

Kutokana na hali hii isiyokuwa ya kawaida taasisi zinazohusika na masuala ya hali ya hewa katika Kanda ya Pembe ya Afrika (ICPAC) na Kanda ya Kusini mwa Afrika (SADC-CSC) kwa mara ya kwanza zimeandaa warsha ya wataalamu wa hali ya hewa ikiwemo Tanzania, kufanya uchambuzi wa mifumo ya hali ya hewa na kutoa mrejeo wa mwelekeo wa mvua za msimu katika ukanda huu. Mikutano hii itafanyika tarehe 29 hadi 30 Novemba, 2012 Nairobi, Kenya na tarehe 5 hadi 13 Disemba, 2012 Lusaka, Zambia. Baada ya taarifa hiyo ya kikanda, Mamlaka ya Hali ya Hewa Tanzania itapitia taarifa hiyo na kutoa mrejeo wa utabiri wa msimu wa mvua nchini.

Tathmini ya mvua kuanzia mwezi Oktoba hadi Novemba 2012:
Katika maeneo yanayopata mvua mara mbili kwa mwaka, hususani maeneo ya ukanda wa Ziwa Victoria (Mikoa ya Kagera, Mara, Mwanza, Geita, Simiyu na Shinyanga) mvua zinaendelea kunyesha, wakati maeneo ya nyanda za juu Kaskazini mashariki (mikoa ya Kilimanjaro, Arusha na Manyara) na pwani ya Kaskazini (mikoa ya Pwani, Morogoro, Dar es Salaam, Tanga na visiwa vya Unguja na Pemba) kumekuwa na mvua ambazo ni za chini ya wastani.

Aidha, katika maeneo yanayopata mvua mara moja kwa mwaka, hususani maeneo ya Kigoma, Rukwa, Mbeya, Njombe, Iringa, Tabora, Katavi na Singida mvua zimeanza na zinaendelea kunyesha. Mtawanyiko wa mvua hizo si wa kuridhisha katika baadhi ya maeneo.

Ushauri:
Katika maeneo ambayo mvua iliyonyesha mpaka sasa ni chini ya wastani, wananchi wanashauriwa kutumia maji kwa uangalifu na kuhifadhi malisho kwa ajili ya mifugo.

Pamoja na mabadiliko hayo ambayo si ya kawaida yaliyojitokeza kuna uwezekano wa kuwepo kwa vipingi vifupi vya mvua kubwa hivyo wananchi wanashauriwa kuendelea kuchukua tahadhari.

Mamlaka ya hali ya hewa inaendelea kufuatilia mifumo ya hali ya hewa na itaendelea kutoa taarifa "update" za mara kwa mara.

Imetolewa na Mamlaka ya Hali ya Hewa Tanzania.

 

[Dr Matola PhD]

Sina imani na Idara hii, huwa nawaamini Wamarekani peke yake.

 

[Azizi Mussa]

aisee! ngoja tuangalie itakuwa je.

 

[cacico]

Mmmhhh thanx kwa taarifa! Japo huwa siwaamini kabisaaa hao mamlaka ya hali ya hewa!

 

[cacico]

sina imani na idara hii, huwa nawaamini wamarekani peke yake.

i second u!

 

[Kiranja]

Neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) have continued in the tropical Pacific through recent months. Between July and September 2012, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature increased to weak El Niño levels, but because the overlying atmosphere failed to respond (i.e., sea level pressure, wind and cloud patterns were near normal), overall conditions remained neutral. Model forecasts and expert opinion suggest that the likelihood of El Niño conditions developing during the remainder of 2012 is now low, and that neutral conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2013. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor Pacific Basin conditions and provide outlooks to assess the most likely state of the climate through the last part of 2012 and into early 2013.

From April 2012 until June 2012, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, sea level pressure, cloudiness and trade winds were all at neutral levels (i.e., indicative of neither El Niño nor La Niña). However from July 2012, sea surface temperatures increased to weak El Niño levels. Despite the central Pacific sea surface temperatures being warmer than average through August and early September, the atmospheric conditions characteristic of El Niño (e.g., in patterns of sea level pressure, winds and cloudiness) failed to develop and hence the ocean-atmosphere system (which defines mature El Niño and La Niña events) remained in a neutral state and El Niño conditions were never formally declared. Without the ocean and atmosphere reinforcing each other (which is required for wider global impacts and for an event to persist for several months’ duration), by early October the Pacific sea surface temperatures then returned to neutral levels.

The dissipation of El Niño-like sea surface temperatures during the Northern Hemisphere autumn is considered highly unusual, with no clear analogue in the historical record. The latest outlooks from climate models and expert opinion suggest that sea surface temperature and atmospheric anomalies are likely to now remain neutral for the remainder of 2012 and at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2013. A small number of models continue to predict that the Pacific may show some limited warming but it is unlikely to see El Niño conditions now establish.

It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña are not the only factors that drive global climate patterns. At the regional level, seasonal outlooks need to assess the relative impacts of both the El Niño/La Niña state and other relevant factors. Such other factors may include, for example, conditions in the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans, as these can influence surrounding continental climate patterns. Locally applicable information should therefore be consulted in detailed regional/national seasonal climate outlooks, such as those produced by WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs).

In summary:

• Since April 2012, ocean-atmosphere conditions have remained neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña);
• Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures attained weak El Niño levels between July and September 2012, but El Niño was not reflected in the overlying atmosphere;
• As of November 2012, outlooks that indicate neutral conditions are likely to continue, while a small risk of El Niño remains. Least likely is the development of La Niña;
• If El Niño develops between November 2012 and January 2013, its strength would be weak.

The situation in the tropical Pacific will continue to be carefully monitored. More detailed interpretations of regional climate fluctuations will be generated routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

Latest WMO ENSO Update

 

[Kiranja]

Sina imani na Idara hii, huwa nawaamini Wamarekani peke yake.

Wamarekani wamo humu WMO wasome hapo juu, ndio msingi wa taarifa ya TMA

 

[PhD]

Sina imani na Idara hii, huwa nawaamini Wamarekani peke yake.

Wanahalalisha posho na imprest za kwenda kwenye hiyo warsha huko zambia

 

[chaUkucha]

itakuwa wanabahatisha