Uganda’s oil is coming, are we ready?

[Invisible]

By Mobhare Matinyi
Friday, 03 December 2010

Some time last year, a Tanzanian medical student at Makerere University told me that "Ugandans now have oil; everybody will have to dance to their tune."

Yes, oil makes nations stronger. No matter how poor a country is, once oil production starts, everything changes.

At a press conference in February, in Washington DC, the United States Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mr Johnnie Carson, a no-nonsense African American diplomat, spoke about his tour of duty in Africa.

*He said: "All of you know that Nigeria is an extraordinarily important country. It is probably one of the two most important countries in Africa. It is the largest in terms of its population. It is the second largest Muslim state in Africa, the seventh largest Muslim state in the world."

The sharp-minded diplomat added: "It is one of America's most important trading partners. US investment in Nigeria is larger than in any other place in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria supplies 12 per cent of US oil. It is the source of the largest amount of sweet crude oil."

How does that sound? Mr Carson didn't paint the other picture of Nigeria – as one of the worst places on earth to try anything. Nigeria is home to 156 million people squeezed into an area slightly less than Tanzania's size. The country is both extremely wealthy and extremely poor.

Mr Carson, a former Peace Corps volunteer in Tanzania in the 1960s, served as the US Ambassador to Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, and also as a diplomat in Botswana, Mozambique and Nigeria, and a senior official in the State Department's Bureau of African Affairs.

He knows Africa very well and cares about detailed issues such as the melting of Mount Kilimanjaro's snow and historical things such as Tanzania's tough stance against the Vietnam War.

But why did Mr Carson comment so positively about Nigeria? Apart from other factors, which he later mentioned, he noted: "It is the source of the largest amount of sweet crude oil."

Five days earlier, Mr Carson had this to say to the annual meeting of the Corporate Council on Africa in Washington, DC: "Oil and natural gas exploration have seized the spotlight in recent years (in Africa), with recent discoveries in Ghana and Uganda."

Don't underestimate it. Oil in Uganda will be a game-changer in the region, whether for better or for worse. Soon, Uganda will be an economic powerhouse and powerful in many strategic areas as well. We better be ready.

Our beloved neighbours, Kenya, have already smelled a rat.* Kenya's leading newspaper, the Daily Nation, on Wednesday reported that Uganda's plan to start an oil refinery project in 2010 will significantly alter the calculus of the Kenya's economic structure. That means that Kenya's refined oil export is doomed to die.

So far, Uganda is the main importer of Kenya's refined oil. Kenya was, in fact, planning to extend its pipeline from Eldoret to Kampala only to be shocked by the news of 2.5 billion barrels of oil in Uganda.

Kenya remains with an option, though, building a pipeline to transport refined oil from Uganda to the world. All is not lost for Kenyans though, as Southern Sudan may become a new nation by 2011, with a dream of exporting its oil through Kenya's pipeline.

Southern Sudan's oil reaches the world market through a pipeline that connects it to the city of Port Sudan in Northern Sudan. About 70 per cent of Sudan's oil comes from the South; thus, a new port at Lamu in Kenya will free Southern Sudan from the Northerners.

But where is Tanzania in this whole game? Sadly,* in Tanzania, we are still showing our affection to Khartoum, an apparently evil government that kills its own people. We need to wake up.

Or maybe Tanzania is going to surprise the world with the news of oil discovery in the Mtwara Bay? How about that oil in Pemba, which a British consultant advised errant politicians in Zanzibar to forget about?

Tanzania now has, unfortunately, the second largest economy in the East African Community (EAC) after Kenya. In a decade or so, Uganda will become the largest economy.

Uganda will surely pull the strings around here with attention from the big brothers such as the US and China. Seriously, are we ready to talk Kampala's language?

Don't forget that Southern Sudan wants to join the EAC. With oil flowing in this less-populated potentially rich country, Tanzania is very likely to become the fourth largest economy, only ahead of Rwanda and Burundi.

What does that mean for Tanzania? Former US President George W. Bush once joked to Canadians that it's not always easy to sleep next to the elephant, comparing America to an elephant.

Is Uganda going to be an economic elephant next to us while we haven't finished wrestling with Kenya? That's going to be exciting, but let's get ready!

 

[MaxShimba]

Five more years for M7.

 

[misha]

Hivi Tanzania tunapoongelea 'USHIRIKIANO WA AFRIKA MASHARIKI' (NA WIZARA IPO) kulikoni kuna project za refenery na pipeline ambazo hazikuzingatia uwepo wa mafuta Uganda, au Mjomba Yoweri alifanya upatikanaji wa mafuta kuwa siri,na viongozi wetu hawakufahamu kuwa Uganda kuna mafuta?

 

[Newvision]

We are dragging our economic feet becoz of ufisadi? Shame on JK and allies

 

[Koba]

wabongo bwana kulia lia tuu bila mpango,hizo gold ambazo mmewapa wazungu kwa ufisadi na forever tax holiday nyie mkibaki kuchimbiwa visima vya maji machafu (eti community development...WTF) zina thamani kuliko mafuta ya hao waganda,kule kusini kuna gas ya kuwasha umeme nchi nzima kwa miaka mingi ijayo lakini hakuna chochote kimefanyika zaidi ya blah blah na kuongezeka umaskini na migawo,bandari ambayo ikiendelezwa inaweza kuwa kubwa kuliko zote East & Central Africa,utalii mkubwa kuliko nchi zote za EA,Ardhi nzuri & kubwa etc....kweli penye miti hakuna wajenzi.

 

[John10]

Hiyo ni good news for Uganda, and EA. Sema kuna tatizo lazima litokee ktk hizi nchi zetu za Africa especially zinapokuwa na resources ambazo zinahitajika duniani. Tumeona vita vya ukabila, dini, nk, kila sehemu ambazo zina resources. Kwa hiyo, Uganda inabidi ijihadhari na ubaguzi wowote ili kuepusha vita vya wenyewe kwa wenyewe.

 

[John10]

Pamoja na Uganda kuwa na Oil, TZ inaweza kuwa na namba moja kiuchumi ktk EA kwa kuwa na population kubwa, na ardhi kubwa, na port. Uganda wakiwa na hela nyingi inamaanisha ardhi kwao itakuwa ghali sana, maisha yatakuwa ghali sana, na pesa yao itakuwa na thamani sana, kwa hiyo utaona Waganda wengi watakuja TZ kuinvest, kunnua nyumba, nk. Hii itaisadia TZ kwa sababu tutakuwa na Cheap export kuliko Kenya or Uganda.

Baadaye TZ itakuwa na largest Economy kuliko Kenya, Uganda, iwapo misingi bora ya uchumi itaendelezwa.

 

[eucalyptos]

Pamoja na Uganda kuwa na Oil, TZ inaweza kuwa na namba moja kiuchumi ktk EA kwa kuwa na population kubwa, na ardhi kubwa, na port. Uganda wakiwa na hela nyingi inamaanisha ardhi kwao itakuwa ghali sana, maisha yatakuwa ghali sana, na pesa yao itakuwa na thamani sana, kwa hiyo utaona Waganda wengi watakuja TZ kuinvest, kunnua nyumba, nk. Hii itaisadia TZ kwa sababu tutakuwa na Cheap export kuliko Kenya or Uganda.

Baadaye TZ itakuwa na largest Economy kuliko Kenya, Uganda, iwapo misingi bora ya uchumi itaendelezwa.

Tz ina Resourse nyingi kuliko kawaida. Ina cobalt, titanium, copper, gold,tanzanite, URANIUM, iron, al, etc.
Mafuta yapo meengi tu. Kule Mtwara at one station wako kwenye hatua za mwisho ili kuanza kuchimba nchi kavu, pia eneo la baharini ki2o kimoja wanaanza ujenzi next yr, maandalizi ya eneo la kupaki meli ya shughuli pala bandarini yanaelekea kukamilia.
Japokuwa hatuambiwi but we see yanaoendelea.
TANZANIA CAN'T BE COMPARED TO OTHER EAc COUNTRIES IN RESOURCES AT ANY PERCENT.

Tujipange tu wandugu, hawa wanaotufunika kwa lugha ya umaskini huku wakifaidika na mali zetu wasituchanganye. We've a long way to go, we have a role 2 play.

 

[MkenyaMzalendo]

Oil doesn't mean a country's economy will automatically flourish, and in Africa we have seen the devastating effects of mineral resources. I surely hope Uganda will avoid the Nigeria mistakes, but I imagine this is what will happen.

Once the oil money starts to flow, imports become cheaper as the government has an easier route to earn foreign exchange. This should enable Ugandans buy more Kenyan manufactured goods thus improving our economy as well. We might also be able to import cheaper crude from them, thus reducing the costs of doing business. I suspect that Uganda's other non-oil exports will suffer (the dollar will become cheaper, thus non-oil exports will become less profitable) meaning Kenya might gain that market that Ugandans might forfeit.

There are so many ways I can see their boom being beneficial to Kenya than the other way round. Of course we will lose petroleum products market, but those losses will be more than compensated for by the gains from cheaper crude (due to reduced transport costs plus a common EAC internal tariff ).

 

[sblandes]

Tz ina Resourse nyingi kuliko kawaida. Ina cobalt, titanium, copper, gold,tanzanite, URANIUM, iron, al, etc.
Mafuta yapo meengi tu. Kule Mtwara at one station wako kwenye hatua za mwisho ili kuanza kuchimba nchi kavu, pia eneo la baharini ki2o kimoja wanaanza ujenzi next yr, maandalizi ya eneo la kupaki meli ya shughuli pala bandarini yanaelekea kukamilia.
Japokuwa hatuambiwi but we see yanaoendelea.
TANZANIA CAN'T BE COMPARED TO OTHER EAc COUNTRIES IN RESOURCES AT ANY PERCENT.

Tujipange tu wandugu, hawa wanaotufunika kwa lugha ya umaskini huku wakifaidika na mali zetu wasituchanganye. We've a long way to go, we have a role 2 play.

Mkuu kweli tuna mali nyingi kuliko washirika wenzetu,lakini mali bila mahalifa ya namna ya kuzitumia vyema mali hizo kwa ufasaa ni kazi bure.

 

[Nonda]

Hivi karibuni Serikali ya Marekani wamesema wanakusudia kumshughulikia yule mtu aitwaye Joseph Konye. Nikajiuliza hivi ni tokea lini wamarekani kujipeleka sehemu ambayo hakuna faida kwao.

kumbe ni hayo mafuta na pia ni kumu-pre-empt China.
Siasa ya kimataifa hizo.


Kwa nchi za Kiafrika sioni kama ni kitu cha kujivunia sana, Hapa kwetu tuna almasi, dhahabu, tanzanite, ardhi iliyojaa rutuba na tujitathmini hali yetu ikoje?


Wakianza kuyagida, basi tutaweza kuwatathmini baada ya miaka 5 hivi na tutajuwa muelekeo walio.


Anyway ni good news , badala ya kuagizia mafuta kwa dolari, tutatumia safaru za EAC, au vipi?

 

[eucalyptos]

Mkuu kweli tuna mali nyingi kuliko washirika wenzetu,lakini mali bila mahalifa ya namna ya kuzitumia vyema mali hizo kwa ufasaa ni kazi bure.

Ni kweli, lakini tujiulize NI KWA NAMNA BOTSWANA WAMEWEZA?

Ni kweli pia kuwa kupata mafuta, na aina nyingine za malighaphi adhimu kwa maendeleo duniani kwaweza kuwa hakutupeleki kwenye muafaka wa matatizo yanayotuzunguka bali kuanzisha mengineyo. Mifano halisi twaijua kama wana jamvi wengine walivyokwisha changia. Nigeria, Congo, Liberia etc, hasn't solved their "major economic problems" etc with watsoever they harvest from their natural resourses.

Nilipatwa na mshangao kusikia tunagawa uranium nasi tunapatiwa chandarua kila raia na barabara za lami (muhimu kufanikisha usafiri wa uranium). Does it make even a little sense?

 

[papason]

ata pemba kuna mafuta yaliyo ingiza mkenge ccm kuingia muafaka na cuf... tehe tehe..... mjini shuleeee....hizi zote ni kahawaa

 

[Anko Sam]

Rasilimali kwa katika nchi za kiafrika ni kusababisha vita na machafuko vinginevyo ukubali zichukuliwe na wewe una ambulia 3% ama patupu kabisa kwa visingizio visivyokuwa na kichwa wala miguu. Angola inazalisha mafuta mengi sana barani afrika lakini yanawasaidiaje?

 

[shanature]

mafuta kitu gani/vyetu tumeshindwa kuvitumia eti wabong bongo lala hakuna jipya/tuna almasi toka nyerere yupo hatujawahi kuwashinda kiuchumi/tanzanite ilitosha pekee kuukuza uchumi bongo lala chukua chako mapema/ndiomaana walifuta somo la uraia sec/miaka ya 90...kuna nini tena /ukiepuka kulipa kodi wewe mjanja....ukiibia serikali wewe mjanja,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,bongo lala iba alafu unajilowasa

 

[The Quonquerer]

wabongo bwana kulia lia tuu bila mpango,hizo gold ambazo mmewapa wazungu kwa ufisadi na forever tax holiday nyie mkibaki kuchimbiwa visima vya maji machafu (eti community development...WTF) zina thamani kuliko mafuta ya hao waganda,kule kusini kuna gas ya kuwasha umeme nchi nzima kwa miaka mingi ijayo lakini hakuna chochote kimefanyika zaidi ya blah blah na kuongezeka umaskini na migawo,bandari ambayo ikiendelezwa inaweza kuwa kubwa kuliko zote East & Central Africa,utalii mkubwa kuliko nchi zote za EA,Ardhi nzuri & kubwa etc....kweli penye miti hakuna wajenzi.

Wewe Koba, si kila mbongo anahusika na wizi na kutokuwepo uwajibikaji kwenye taifa hili! Walaumu viongozi mafisadi wanaoshirikiana na mafisadi kuangamiza nchi hii. Na ndiyo maana CCM iko tumbo joto, watu wamechoka na sijui kama umeshuhudia uchaguzi huu. Lazima ujue kwamba nchi za afrika mabadiliko ni magumu, na pia ukiri kwamba Tanzania ina unafuu mkubwa na ndiyo maana imeweza kukuhifadhi kama mkimbiz kutoka Rwanda! Na ukiri kwamba kwenu Rwanda, you are even unfortunate maana, mlidhihirishia dunia jinsi mlivyo punguani kwa kuchinja ndugu zenu kiasi kile na mnaendelea na mbele kuna giza. Usicheke wakati kwako kunaungua!

 

[Kichuguu]

Hivi Tanzania tunapoongelea 'USHIRIKIANO WA AFRIKA MASHARIKI' (NA WIZARA IPO) kulikoni kuna project za refenery na pipeline ambazo hazikuzingatia uwepo wa mafuta Uganda, au Mjomba Yoweri alifanya upatikanaji wa mafuta kuwa siri,na viongozi wetu hawakufahamu kuwa Uganda kuna mafuta?

Kwani Tanzania huwa nayo inawakilishwa kwenye mikutano ya East Africa ? wawakilishaji wenyewe ni madokta njaa wasiojua dunia inakwenda wapi bali kufurahia matumbo yao tu?