The Economist: Takwimu za Tanzania zina shida

Analogia Malenga

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MAELEZO KWA UFUPI KUHUSU KILICHOANDIKWA

> Mbali na COVID-19 kupiga nchi jirani ya Tanzania, huku IMF ikitabiri uchumi kushuka kwa 3.2%, Tanzania imetabiri uchumi kukua kwa 5.5% na ripoti ya WB imewapandisha kuwa uchumi mdogo wa kati.

> Ni rahisi kuona upotoshaji wa takwimu kwa kuwa kuna anguko kubwa la shughuli nyingi za kiuchumi, i.e mwaka 2019 ilisemekana uchumi ulikuwa kwa 7% lakini kulikuwa na upungufu wa mapato ya kodi kwa 1%

> Aidha namna ya kusema uchumi unakua au utakua ikiwa shughuli za kiuchumi zinafungwa ni rahisi kusema kuwa takwimu haziko sahihi. Mwaka jana mauzo ya kampuni kubwa ya vilevi yalishuka kwa 5%, hii ni rahisi kuona kuwa data za nchi hiyo zina tatizo kidogo.

Wanamalizia kwa kusema: Baada ya Serikali kubadilishwa huko Argentina, uongo ulikoma; Watanzania wanastahili kuambiwa ukweli pia.

===

BY OFFICIAL MEASURES Tanzania is doing brilliantly. Covid-19 may be devastating its neighbours, but Tanzania is completely free of the virus—and safe for tourists—says President John Magufuli. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy will shrink by 3.2% this year, predicts the IMF, but Tanzania forecasts GDP growth of 5.5%, making it one of the world’s star economies. This month the World Bank promoted it from “low income” to “lower-middle income”. That implies that income per person has surpassed $1,036, five years ahead of the government’s schedule.

Were these figures true, Tanzania would have much to celebrate. But the closer you look, the less plausible they seem (see article). For more than a decade from 2000 Tanzania’s economy, east Africa’s second-largest, was indeed among Africa’s best-performing. After ditching one-party rule and “African socialism” in the 1990s, the government opened up the economy and welcomed foreign investors. GDP grew by a cracking 5-8% almost every year. However, when Mr Magufuli came to power in 2015, he turned a hopeful country into a fearful one. Journalists were jailed, opposition MPs have been arrested or shot. The “bulldozer”, as he is known, has scared off investors by ripping up agreements, arresting employees and demanding arbitrary sums from companies. Acacia Mining, the largest foreign investor, was ordered to pay $190bn—more than three years of Tanzania’s GDP—though this absurd figure was later scaled back. Investment has slumped. Tanzania has fallen by ten places in the World Bank’s ease-of-doing-business ranking. Business folk think the economy slipped into recession well before covid-19. But official numbers show it galloping ahead.

IMF staff smelt a fish last year. Official GDP numbers seemed out of step with other gloomier data. The IMF raised concerns about the numbers and noted that the government’s “unpredictable or interventionist policies...could lead to meagre (or even negative) growth.” Its report should have sparked debate. It did not, because Mr Magufuli blocked its release.

If Tanzania’s economy grew by almost 7% in the fiscal year to the end of June 2019, why did tax revenue fall by 1%? And why has bank lending to companies slumped? Private data are bad, too. In 2019 sales at the biggest brewer fell by 5%. Sales of cement by the two biggest producers were almost flat. None of these things is likely if growth is storming ahead. The discrepancies are so large that it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the government is lying. Yet Tanzanians are terrified to suggest anything so scurrilous. Two years ago Mr Magufuli’s government wrote a law (since amended) under which people could be locked up for three years for disputing official statistics. The government has arrested Zitto Kabwe, an opposition MP, for questioning GDP numbers and closed a newspaper for publishing accurate exchange rates.

Lying is bad for democracy: without reliable numbers, it is hard for voters to hold governments to account. Lies are also bad for governance: it is hard to craft good policies without knowing what works. Because accurate numbers matter so much, donors spend almost $700m a year helping poor countries collect them. The World Bank even gave Tanzania a $30m loan to improve its statistics bureau. What was the point, if the IMF buckles to political pressure and professes to believe codswallop?

Some argue that international financial institutions can do more good by staying close to iffy governments and gently nudging them towards reform. If the IMF picks a fight with Mr Magufuli, he may send it packing. But in accepting junk statistics, the fund harms its own credibility, and stores up economic trouble for Tanzania. Mr Magufuli is running for a second term in October, so bad data also undermine the democratic rights of Tanzanians, who should be allowed to vote for politicians based on their actual record, rather than a fictitious one.

Honesty has worked before. In 2013, after it became clear that Argentina was fibbing about inflation, the fund stopped accepting its data. After a change in government, Argentina stopped lying. Tanzanians deserve the truth, too
 

August

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In 2017, the national debt of Japan amounted to about 234.99 percent of the gross domestic product.
...
Japan: National debt from 2014 to 2024 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
National debt to GDP ratio
2020* 237.64%
2019* 237.69%
2018* 237.13%
2017 234.99%

Japan Government Debt: % of GDP [1982 - 2020] [Data & Charts]

As stated in the other posts, Japan has a very high debt to GDP partially because it has attempted to use fiscal stimulus (i.e. paving roads) to jump start its economy over the last two decades. ... Low interest rates mean that Japan does not have very high interest payments in relation to it's level of debt


List of countries by external debt - Wikipedia
 

zitto junior

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Oct 7, 2013
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In 2017, the national debt of Japan amounted to about 234.99 percent of the gross domestic product.
...
Japan: National debt from 2014 to 2024 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
National debt to GDP ratio
2020* 237.64%
2019* 237.69%
2018* 237.13%
2017 234.99%

Japan Government Debt: % of GDP [1982 - 2020] [Data & Charts]

As stated in the other posts, Japan has a very high debt to GDP partially because it has attempted to use fiscal stimulus (i.e. paving roads) to jump start its economy over the last two decades. ... Low interest rates mean that Japan does not have very high interest payments in relation to it's level of debt
Kwa kuongezea tu kabla ya COVID pesa ya Kenya ina thamani kuliko hata Japanese Yen!!!

Uchumi hauwi interpreted hivi mkuu.... Kwamba kma Japan wana 200% debt to GDP ratio basi sie ndio tupo vizuri. Je umepiga hesabu ya component ya deni kma la ndani, capacity ya kulipa? Pia unafahamu exchange rates za japan ni pegged sio floating kma za kwetu? Unafahamu pesa yao inashushwa thamani kwa makusudi na sio kwa market forces of demand/supply?

Ni sawa na kusema kwakuwa marekani ina agiza kuliko inavyouza basi ni kma sisi tu ambao tuna import zaidi kuliko export. Hapo huja factor in purchasing power? ama cost advantage kwamba ni cheaper kuagiza kuliko kuzalisha huko huko US??

Mkuu uchumi unachambuliwa ki-muktadha sio kwa kujumuisha tu.
 

Kalamu1

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Jul 7, 2018
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In 2017, the national debt of Japan amounted to about 234.99 percent of the gross domestic product.
...
Japan: National debt from 2014 to 2024 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
National debt to GDP ratio
2020* 237.64%
2019* 237.69%
2018* 237.13%
2017 234.99%

Japan Government Debt: % of GDP [1982 - 2020] [Data & Charts]

As stated in the other posts, Japan has a very high debt to GDP partially because it has attempted to use fiscal stimulus (i.e. paving roads) to jump start its economy over the last two decades. ... Low interest rates mean that Japan does not have very high interest payments in relation to it's level of debt


List of countries by external debt - Wikipedia
This is display of ignorance per excellence!

What is the relevance of this to the topic under discussion?
 

Hakimu Mfawidhi

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Oct 30, 2018
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In 2017, the national debt of Japan amounted to about 234.99 percent of the gross domestic product.
...
Japan: National debt from 2014 to 2024 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
National debt to GDP ratio
2020* 237.64%
2019* 237.69%
2018* 237.13%
2017 234.99%

Japan Government Debt: % of GDP [1982 - 2020] [Data & Charts]

As stated in the other posts, Japan has a very high debt to GDP partially because it has attempted to use fiscal stimulus (i.e. paving roads) to jump start its economy over the last two decades. ... Low interest rates mean that Japan does not have very high interest payments in relation to it's level of debt


List of countries by external debt - Wikipedia
Kulinganisha au kuzungumzia Tanzania halafu ukatoa hoja kunakili habari za Japani unaonyesha kabisa una upungufu wa akili.
 

Hakimu Mfawidhi

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Oct 30, 2018
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Kwa kuongezea tu kabla ya COVID pesa ya Kenya ina thamani kuliko hata Japanese Yen!!!

Uchumi hauwi interpreted hivi mkuu.... Kwamba kma Japan wana 200% debt to GDP ratio basi sie ndio tupo vizuri. Je umepiga hesabu ya component ya deni kma la ndani, capacity ya kulipa? Pia unafahamu exchange rates za japan ni pegged sio floating kma za kwetu? Unafahamu pesa yao inashushwa thamani kwa makusudi na sio kwa market forces of demand/supply?

Ni sawa na kusema kwakuwa marekani ina agiza kuliko inavyouza basi ni kma sisi tu ambao tuna import zaidi kuliko export. Hapo huja factor in purchasing power? ama cost advantage kwamba ni cheaper kuagiza kuliko kuzalisha huko huko US??

Mkuu uchumi unachambuliwa ki-muktadha sio kwa kujumuisha tu.
Unaweza kushangaa huyu ni msomi wa kiwango cha chuo kikuu. Mbaya zaidi unaweza kushangaa ni mmoja wa washauri wa wafanya maamuzi.
 

Phoenix

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Hv watz mnatak nini hasa?
Wewe nawe! Unaona sawa kuendesha nchi kwa uongo uongo na utunzi utunzi kama vile unaendesha kundi la sanaa? Tunataka ukweli,maendeleo yaliyopo kwenye makaratasi yaakisi maisha yetu.!
 

August

JF-Expert Member
Jun 18, 2007
6,863
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Kwa kuongezea tu kabla ya COVID pesa ya Kenya ina thamani kuliko hata Japanese Yen!!!

Uchumi hauwi interpreted hivi mkuu.... Kwamba kma Japan wana 200% debt to GDP ratio basi sie ndio tupo vizuri. Je umepiga hesabu ya component ya deni kma la ndani, capacity ya kulipa? Pia unafahamu exchange rates za japan ni pegged sio floating kma za kwetu? Unafahamu pesa yao inashushwa thamani kwa makusudi na sio kwa market forces of demand/supply?

Ni sawa na kusema kwakuwa marekani ina agiza kuliko inavyouza basi ni kma sisi tu ambao tuna import zaidi kuliko export. Hapo huja factor in purchasing power? ama cost advantage kwamba ni cheaper kuagiza kuliko kuzalisha huko huko US??

Mkuu uchumi unachambuliwa ki-muktadha sio kwa kujumuisha tu.
Sasa kama uchumi unachambuliwa ki-muktadha sio kwa majumuishi sasa mbona wewe unachukulia kijuuu juu taarifa za economist na kuzishadadia, bila kuzichambua kimuktada.

Pamoja na hayo Italia, ina uchumi mkubwa wa under world na hata Spain, mbona hatusiki economist wakisema data za Italia au Spain are unreliable , au hujui hilo.

Na zaidi ya hapo hiyo fact za Japan , zinaelezea sababu ya debt kuwa kubwa kuliko GDP ni utengenezaji wa barabara na vitu ambavyo vitaongeza uzalishaji, sasa hiyo inatofauti gani na sisi bongo tunachofanya sasa for a better tomorrow???
Au ndio ulimbukeni uliokuwa nao wa kwa wengine sawa , Ile kwetu ni kosa la kuonyesha tu wanyuma sana au tumepotea njia
 

August

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Jun 18, 2007
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Kulinganisha au kuzungumzia Tanzania halafu ukatoa hoja kunakili habari za Japani unaonyesha kabisa una upungufu wa akili.
The economy doesn't contract, it doesn't grow. Italy is a country that is weak, that is old, where there is no investment in new ideas.” Some business leaders argue that gloomy talk is masking strength, especially in industrial areas in the north of the country.
 

August

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Jun 18, 2007
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This is display of ignorance per excellence!

What is the relevance of this to the topic under discussion?
Banks are still stuffed with bad loans — albeit fewer than before — making them reluctant to lend. An economy that has not expanded over the past decade stagnated between April and June, according to recent data, while investment diminished. That kept Italy on track to grow not at all this year while reinforcing its claim on an unwanted title: weakest economy in Europe.

Early this year, the Adler Pelzer Group, a major Italian manufacturer, secured an order worth €2.6 million (nearly $3 million) to make parts for military aircraft. That spelled 250 new jobs at its factory outside Naples, the heart of perpetually troubled southern Italy.

“It was a great opportunity,” said Paolo Scudieri, the company’s chairman and a member of the board of Confindustria, Italy’s most powerful business
But the company recently shifted the work to a factory in Poland in reaction to the intensifying political chaos.

“The battle with the E.U. and the conflicts with the world have created problems of credibility for the Italian government,” Mr. Scudieri said. “They have created problems not just for my company but for all Italian companies and, most of all, for Italy itself. Whoever might like to invest in Italy now thinks twice.”

Image
A worker producing rear seat paddings for the Fiat Panda, at Adler Group in Ottaviano.
A worker producing rear seat paddings for the Fiat Panda, at Adler Group in Ottaviano.Credit...Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
Italy last month managed to defuse its most immediate problem, the risk of punishment from the European Union for breaching limits on its public debt. After threatening to impose fines, Brussels held off when some of Italy’s current spending plans proved less expensive than anticipated.

That achievement was celebrated in Rome as evidence that Italy can reduce its debts and avoid conflict with the European bloc.

“It was important to recreate trust in the markets, especially that families and companies believe that public finances are viable,” the Italian finance minister, Giovanni Tria, said during an interview in his cavernous office in Rome, where the stupendous ceiling frescoes could provoke jealousy at the Vatican.

“We have eliminated all possible discussion about our position in Europe,” Mr. Tria added. “We want to change the rules, but we are complying with the current rules.”

Yet more skirmishes with Brussels almost certainly lie ahead this fall as the government begins deliberating over next year’s budget. The League remains intent on adopting a so-called flat tax plan to reduce taxes. Paying for that would force Italy to cut spending or clash anew over European debt limits.

Locals in a line outside the National Institute for Social Security in Naples.
Locals in a line outside the National Institute for Social Security in Naples.Credit...Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
“We will have to choose,” Mr. Tria said. “If you want to have fiscal reform in the direction of the flat tax, we have to cut expenditures.”

EDITORS’ PICKS
He The trouble is that cutting spending deprives the economy of fuel for growth. Successive Italian administrations have emphasized the need for expansion in pleading with Brussels for permission to spend more than budget rules allow.

This has always been a tough sell, given that austerity-minded European officials are prone to view Italy as a mischievous teenager trying to pry loose the family credit card. It is a tougher argument now, with Italy run by a government whose leaders have frequently threatened to break with European orthodoxy.

The political turmoil has intensified in recent weeks in the wake of a report from BuzzFeed that advisers for the League met secretly with Russian officials seeking to improve the party’s prospects in this year’s European Union elections. Mr. Salvini has denied the report, while his Five Star counterpart, Luigi Di Maio, urged him to address Parliament. The latest trigger for hostility was Five Star’s opposition to a high-speed rail connecting northern Italy to France.

With the collapse of the government now a looming possibility, Europe’s fourth-largest economy remains stuck in a familiar quagmire.

Image
Ten years ago, in the midst of the global financial crisis, Antonio Pastore lost the job he had held for two decades.
Ten years ago, in the midst of the global financial crisis, Antonio Pastore lost the job he had held for two decades.Credit...Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
“It’s serial stagnation,” said Nicola Borri, a finance professor at Luiss, a university in Rome. “The economy doesn’t contract, it doesn’t grow. Italy is a country that is weak, that is old, where there is no investment in new ideas.”

Some business leaders argue that gloomy talk is masking strength, especially in industrial areas in the north of the country.

“The real economy in the country is so strong,” said Carlo Messina, chief executive officer of Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy’s second-largest bank by assets. “We will continue to be a very resilient country in any scenario.”

He dismissed the political drama as a sideshow. “Believe me,” he said, “in Italy, we are used to a political situation like this.”

The current government is in many ways the product of public dismay over Italy’s dismal economic performance. Five Star gained favor with promises for so-called basic income payments — cash grants for low-income people. They were especially appealing in the south of Italy, where joblessness forms the backdrop to everything. The League, now the dominant political force, captured votes with vows to halt the influx of migrants and to cut taxes.

Unemployed workers gathered at the Sgarrupato, an abandoned church in Montesanto, a working-class neighborhood in Naples.
Unemployed workers gathered at the Sgarrupato, an abandoned church in Montesanto, a working-class neighborhood in Naples.Credit...Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
But the results have proved disappointing, a sentiment especially palpable in Naples, a glorious yet fading city on the Tyrrhenian Sea.

Hauntingly beautiful, its streets are pockmarked by deterioration. Teeming with ancient palaces, Naples is now colored with abandonment, as young people move north in pursuit of jobs. Mount Vesuvius — the volcano whose eruption buried Pompeii — towers over the landscape, a reminder that unseen pressures can explode.

On a recent morning, three dozen health care workers congregated outside a regional government building. They wore red hats emblazoned with the letters of their union, the CGIL, the largest in Italy. They blew shrill whistles. One wielded a bullhorn and tilted it skyward, shouting angrily at officials in offices above.

The workers were protesting the loss of 5,000 jobs in regional hospitals over the past decade, leading to shortages of doctors and nurses. The new government in Rome is uninterested, they said.

“Everyone sees that they fight every day among themselves and with the E.U.,” said the head of the local union branch, Marco D’Acunto. “But what we care about is what they do for the country and the region. And that is nothing.”

Image
Members of the Movimento 7 Novembre community organization rallying against unemployment and undeclared work.
Members of the Movimento 7 Novembre community organization rallying against unemployment and undeclared work.Credit...Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
In the working-class neighborhood of Montesanto — a warren of cramped apartments threaded by narrow, litter-strewn streets — unemployed workers gathered in an abandoned church seized by a makeshift community organization. They shared strategies for navigating the bewildering government benefits system.

Nationally, the unemployment rate sits near 10 percent — lower than a year ago, but roughly the same level as in 2012, in the aftermath of a brutal economic crisis. Many here say the crisis never ended.

“What was wrong before has just become wrong in a more stable way,” said Mimi Ercolano, a labor activist. “There are huge numbers of people who are working off the books, in the shadows of the economy. It’s a social cancer.”

Ten years ago, in the midst of the global financial crisis, Antonio Pastore lost the job he had held for two decades, restoring marble statues. He had earned about €1,200 ($1,349) per month. As orders disappeared, his employer pressured him to agree to work off the books, he said, enabling the company to avoid paying taxes. He refused, and was fired. That was the last time he has held a real job.

Mr. Pastore took temporary construction stints, working under the table for €20 per day. He moved back in with his parents.

Sabino Basso has halted plans to hire 30 more people at the olive oil bottling plant started by his great-grandfather.
Sabino Basso has halted plans to hire 30 more people at the olive oil bottling plant started by his great-grandfather.Credit...Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
Now 45, he winced when asked if he has children.

“It’s not possible to have a family when you don’t have work,” he said.

Has anything changed since the populist government took over? Mr. Pastore scoffed. “It’s gotten worse,” he said. “It’s gotten harder to find a job, because so many companies are closing.”

Outside Naples, at a factory that made fruit baskets, the ax fell in March, ending paychecks for 117 permanent workers and 200 contractors. Some applied in vain for jobs at a nearby Fiat automobile plant, where the work force has declined to fewer than 5,000, from 15,000 in the 1970s.

Most jobless people do not qualify for basic income payments, because the rules bar grants for those drawing financial support from relatives. Five Star once pledged that some nine million people would benefit, but only 674,000 had qualified as of early June, according to the National Social Welfare Institute.

Thirty-five miles east of Naples, in the town of Avellino, Sabino Basso has halted plans to hire 30 more people at the olive oil bottling plant started by his great-grandfather.

Image
The Basso olive oil bottling company in Avellino.
The Basso olive oil bottling company in Avellino.Credit...Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
Mr. Basso’s company buys olive oil from growers in Italy, Spain and Greece, exporting 80 percent of its wares to countries around the globe — especially the United States, where Walmart is a major customer. He had planned to increase marketing and online sales.

But then Five Star tightened legal requirements for companies that hire workers on temporary contracts, effectively limiting stints to one year. The change was aimed at forcing businesses to hire permanent workers.

Mr. Basso was aghast. All but five of his 100 workers are permanent, he said. The others are apprentices, a status that has allowed him to hire using temporary contracts.

“In order to understand if I want to keep people their whole lives, I have to test them,” he said. The new rules did not allow him sufficient time. “I just stopped hiring.”

His sales in Italy have dipped 4 percent this year, a trend he blames on the noisy reality show that is Italian politics.

“When the television says the government is fighting with the European Union, and Salvini is fighting with Di Maio, it hits consumers,” he said. “Companies are looking for stability.”
 

August

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Jun 18, 2007
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Unaweza kushangaa huyu ni msomi wa kiwango cha chuo kikuu. Mbaya zaidi unaweza kushangaa ni mmoja wa washauri wa wafanya maamuzi.
Penda kujisomea na kusikiliza taarifa zinazofaa na kukuelimisha na zaidi ya hapo kila kitu kina pande mbili kama sarafu head or tail au kushoto na kulia, au ubaya na uzuri wa kitu, au compare and contrast , halafu tafakari hizo taarifa na kukupa a sensible meaning of those information .
 

zitto junior

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Sasa kama uchumi unachambuliwa ki-muktadha sio kwa majumuishi sasa mbona wewe unachukulia kijuuu juu taarifa za economist na kuzishadadia, bila kuzichambua kimuktada.

Pamoja na hayo Italia, ina uchumi mkubwa wa under world na hata Spain, mbona hatusiki economist wakisema data za Italia au Spain are unreliable , au hujui hilo.

Na zaidi ya hapo hiyo fact za Japan , zinaelezea sababu ya debt kuwa kubwa kuliko GDP ni utengenezaji wa barabara na vitu ambavyo vitaongeza uzalishaji, sasa hiyo inatofauti gani na sisi bongo tunachofanya sasa for a better tomorrow???
Au ndio ulimbukeni uliokuwa nao wa kwa wengine sawa , Ile kwetu ni kosa la kuonyesha tu wanyuma sana au tumepotea njia
Embu nionyeshe hyo post nayoshadadia data za the economist?

2. Hao Italy na spain mbona wameshachambuliwa sana kwenye machapisho ya OECD. Tafuta OECD report ya 2020 juu ya ufisadi na rushwa utaona case study za mpaka huko Italy and spain. Usiwe mvivu wa kusoma afu ukasingizia eti HAWAJAWAGUSA!!

3. Nimeshasema Japan huwezi linganisha debt component yao na sisi hta kidogo. Fahamu Japan ni moja ya wakopeshaji wakubwa yaani ukioffset pesa anayokopesha vs aliyokopa basi inakuwa 66% ya GDP yao. Japan pia ina reserves za pesa za kigeni kwa robo ya thamani ya deni lake lote. Je Tz reserves za pesa ya kigeni pale BOT zinafika hata robo ya deni la taifa?

Naona umeweka link ya external debts ningeomba upitie na hii Link ya NIIP inayoonyesha ratio ya kukopa/kukopeshwa ndio ujilinganishe na Tz ambayo haijawahi mkopesha bebetu yoyote.

Net international investment position - Wikipedia

NB: Naomba ieleweke kukopa sio kesi ila issue ni capacity ya kulipa, ssa sisi mapato ya kila mwezi yanaishia kwenye mishahara na kulipa deni basi wenzio mapato wanayoingiza yanaweza kusustain deni, bajeti za kawaida na bajeti ya maendeleo ila wanakopa sababu ya compounding effect tu kwamba pesa zote zisiende sehemu moja basi ila sio UKATA kma sisi.

Ni muhimu tuache kuingiza siasa kwenye masuala ya taaluma. Japan na Tz seriously?
 

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