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Tanzania without a Resource Curse

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Zitto, Sep 20, 2012.

  1. Zitto

    Zitto MP Kigoma Urban

    #1
    Sep 20, 2012
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    Niliandika makala haya mwishoni mwa mwaka jana. Kufuatia mjadala unaoendelea kuhusu sekta ya mafuta na gesi na kuhusiana na mikataba ya utafutaji na uchimbaji wa Gesi na Mafuta.

    Vilevile kuhusiana na utayari wa Tanzania kuelekea Uchumi wa Gesi Asilia.

    Nimeona nibandike makala hii hapa katika lengo la kuleta mjadala. Natumai huko baadaye tutakuwa na forum maalumu kuhusu sekta hii nyeti sana.

    Tanzania without a Resource Curse

    In his December 2011 letter to the Managing Director of the IMF, Tanzanian Minister for Finance confirmed the factthat in the near future the country will be a significant exporter of natural gas. The Minister wrote ‘there appear to be good prospects that commercial quantities of natural gas will be confirmed, resulting in multi-billion dollar foreign direct investments in Tanzania's natural gas sector (sic) over the next five years, and the start of correspondingly large export and budget revenue flows around the end of the current decade.'

    This is the first official confirmation about the vast reserve of natural gas lying under waters of the Indian ocean south of Tanzania apart from ones in Songosongo and Mkuranga blocks. It is estimated that Tanzania will confirm increasing reserve to around 60tcf of natural gas from the current 43tcf. Mozambique, just south of Mtwara Region has already confirmed 30trcf of natural gas and the government of President Armando Guebuza is preparing itself for a Gas Economy. Tanzania is expected to receive an FDI of around USD 7bn from just one company (Ophir Energy and its partners British Gas) in the coming five years. Other multinational companies like PetroBras and a Norwegian StatOil are in drilling programmes in 2012 and expectedly more discoveries and potential FDIs will be announced. StatOil has since announced discoveries in its two wells drilled so far and has started to look for an area to build an LNG plant. Rushugi natural harbour in Kilwa district is a preferable site. Thus, it is an obvious factbthat Tanzania might start exporting Natural Gas by 2020, more than quadruple its exports earnings, double its GDP and move the country to a natural gas economy as fifty percent of its GDP will be originating from natural gas sub-sector. Some talks in the Gas industry say that in the first year of LNG exports, total value of earnings would equal 40% of GDP. Is the country prepared?

    The Minister for Finance assures the IMF that there are discussions in Tanzania on how to position the country tothe best to take advantage of the potential resource wealth. True there are talks about this topic but not discussions. The government hasn't seriously initiated a multi stakeholders discussions on the eventuality of the the Gas Economy. There has been murmurings and issues being raised (though not seriously) in the precincts of Bunge. There has been a serious discussion though amongst young Legislators about this crucial issue, informally. It is high time now that the nation starts to talk, discuss and dialogue about the country vast natural gas reserve and its exploitation so that it benefits the country and its people once flows start.

    Many people hope that discovery of massive natural gas reserves will make Tanzania rich and end poverty completely. That, it will be a catalyst for prosperity. Sometimes YES and many times NO as far as experience from many African countries are concerned. Scholars have written about the Resource Curse affecting many resource wealth countries and causing more poverty and even conflicts. Paul Collier, in his book The Bottom Billion – why the poorest Countries are failing and what Can Be Done About it,affirms that over time, countries with large resource discoveries can end up poorer. Several reasons explains the situation but a major one is the concept of Duth Disease whereby natural resources exports crowd out other key economic activities that employs more people and with stronger linkages to the rest of the economy. To avoid the curse a country needs to prepare itself so well to address issues of contracts for exploitation of the resource, revenue management and curb rent seeking behaviour (which is rampant already in Tanzania due to foreign Aid and Gold exports).

    Finance Minister committed to IMF that the Natural Gas Master Plan will be finished by June 2012. This is a right move and reasonable time frame. However who is responsible for the drafting of the master plan? Bureaucrats in the Ministry of Energy? A natural Gas Master Plan explains about the planned use of the gas discovery – How much to use domestically for power generation, how much for fertilizer making, how much for home use and how much to export. Thus the master plan must have opinions of various stakeholders and it must be aligned with a Power system master plan as well as the over all National Development Vision. As this article is written,there is no open discussion about the master plan and it is worrying if June deadline committed to the IMF (annoying that instead of government committing itself to the People through Bunge, it does to IMF) will be met. Deadline was passed, no plan, no policy, no new legislation. The ministry of Energy must start engaging stakeholders in the energy sector including legislators in the Energy and Mining Committee into completion of the Natural Gas Master Plan.

    It is expected that Petroleum revenue management bill will be enacted before large exploitation of the natural gas starts. Tanzania so far has very generous fiscal incentives to Oil exploration companies. But these incentives have been given in an ad hoc manner as there is no specific law to govern revenue streams from hydrocarbons. Moreover as the case with revenue from Gold mining and other minerals, proper use of funds is the most critical issue. Residents of the areas where mines are situated have been complaining about not getting and benefits from the mines. The Bomani Committee recommended for 20% of the royalty to be returned back to villages around mines. Petroleum revenue management bill must provide for the regions where Oil/Gas will be found to benefit from the resource. But also whether money shall be used for major development projects or business as usual. The Minister has rightly suggested for the future revenue generations fund as it is done in Norway and other countries. These are very critical issues to be discussed in the near future in order to ensure Tanzania benefits from the expected wealth. Tanzania must avoid a Nigeria situation where the country has exported Oil worth USD 250bn since 1970 but Nigerians are still poor and not much tangible things can be shown of the trillions Nairas.

    Two important things must be considered in the anticipated Gas Economy. One is the Human Capital. Tanzania has very few experts on Hydrocarbons, hard stuff like Engineering and Geology as well as soft like Energy economists, Lawyers specialising on Petroleum and even sociologists. It is highly suggested that a Mtwara University be established with campuses in Mtwara and Lindi municipalities to train Tanzanians on these areas and more. Vocational training is of paramount importance to the middle and lower cadres in the sector. Otherwise Tanzaniawill find itself importing welders as experts. This has to be done now and not later.

    Second is the reforms of the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC). As it stands TPDC is now a regulator of upstream (although some argue it is the Commissioner for Energy) and a participant to the ventures with the free carried interest. It is highly suggested that a National Oil and Gas Company (Petroleum Corporation of Tanzania – PETROTAN) be established and actively participate in the sector as an investor with huge stakes. It must be highlighted here that PetroBras, Petronas and StatOil are state companies in their own countries. The role of a regulator shall be separated from role as participants/ investor in hydrocarbon companies. PETROTAN would have various subsidiaries in the midstream (like the Pipeline) and downstream (like outlet Gas stations). These reforms should bed one as early as practical to enable the country prepare well for the exploitation of the resource wealth from hydrocarbons.

    In conclusion, Tanzania must from start institutionalise governance issues in the Oil and Gas by ensuring transparency in contracts as well as total commitment to Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative. The EITI bill must be brought to Parliament to ensure transparency and Accountability. These will lay a strong foundation for country to avoid a Resource Curse and ensure trust from citizens about their natural resources wealth, the trust that waned in mining sector.

     
  2. F

    FJM JF-Expert Member

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    Zitto kwa hisani yako naomba makala kama hizi ambazo zinagusa mambo muhimu kwa mustakabali wa Taifa, ziwe kwa lugha ya Kiswahili. Watu wengi wanaoongea Kiingereza wana ulewa mpana na wa kina wa mambo yaliyo kwenye makala kama hii. Na wengi wao wana 'interest' na pengine wasingetaka sana kufanya tofauti na ilivyo sasa.

    Kama tunataka mabadiliko yawe na msukumo wa kipekee ni lazima yawe 'bottom up' na asibakizwe mtu nyuma. Lugha inabakiza watu wengi nje ya ulingo wa mijadala na watu hawa wangekuwa na michango mizuri sana. Watu wa Mtwara na Lindi kwa mfano, wangefaidika kama wangekuwa sehemu ya mjadala. Lakini ni wangapi Lindi na huko Mtwara wanaelewa Kiingereza?

    Makala za kiingereza zinakwenda kwa wale wale tunaombiwa 'hawana elimu' ya kuandaa mikataba na bado wanaachwa kuandaa mikabata!

    Chondechonde -asiachwe mtanzania nyuma.
     
  3. Kijakazi

    Kijakazi JF-Expert Member

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    "the more Educated an African is, the more an Enemy becomes of his own Society", hayo maneno aliniambia Mzungu mmoja niliyekuwa najadiliana naye mambo fulani kuhusu jamii yetu na maendeleo kwa Ujumla, kwa Upande wake yeye hilo ndio tatizo kubwa kwa nini sisi kama Waafrika hatuendelei pamoja na juhudi zote zinazo au zinazoonekana kama zinafanywa, ni kwamba wale ambao wanatakiwa walete mabadiliko wako kwenye Sayari ya Mars na wale ambao wanadai wanawatetea wako kwenye Sayari yetu ya Dunia, kwa kifupi ni kwamba hiyo nakala haujaandikiwa wewe au mimi au Mtanzania mwingine wa kawaida bali wameandikiwa walengwa wengine!

     
  4. Queen Esther

    Queen Esther JF-Expert Member

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    Hon. Zitto,

    You are coming up with very sensitive issues concerning the present and future of our country. As a leader/minister I kindly request you to address these issues in the right forums. The way it is now to me is one man show. That can be very dangerously because the spirit behind it is a manipulative spirit.

    Taking deep think of your inner man, what are your motives?. Do you real need to help our country or you have another fisher spirit behind?. Watch out if your intentions are ill motive, the disaster is coming on your way, why because people are praying for this country now more than ever before.

    However if your intentions are positive and objectively from the beginning, I tell you, God will bless you abundantly. The cry of Tanzanians is soon to be answered, this is because when we pray we believe God is answering our prayers. 2 Chr 7:14.

    Wish you all the best brother. God bless our country.

    Queen Esther
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  5. M

    Mkandara Verified User

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    Mh Zitto, kuna wakati huwa kichwani mwangu sana maana unaishi kwa mifano.

    Makala hii ungemtumia kwanza JK akaisoma halafu kama hakuelewi CDM msimame kidete Bungeni kuweka madai haya wazi kisha myafikishe kwa wananchi ambao wanahitajio sana kuelewa undani huu badala ya kuota ndoto za Utajiri.

    Hili jinamizi haliwezi kwisha paispo CDM kuingia madarakani na ushauri wako wote unjengewe sera kamili ya chama chako, ipendekezwe na pia uwe msimamo wa chama na ahadi kwa wananchi..
     
  6. platozoom

    platozoom JF-Expert Member

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    Mbunge wa Bumbuli ameandika kitabu kuhusu Jimbo lake kwa lugha ya Kiingereza. Mke wa EL alipotoka Israel yeye na mume wake baada ya zahma ya Richmond aliandika kuhusu safari yake kwa lugha ya Kiingereza (akasema atakitafsiri).

    Si jambo geni inawezekana labda ni malengo tu.

    Turudi kwenye mjadala: Kusikia tunaingia kwenye uvunaji ni jambo linalovutia sana lakini kufanikisha malengo ni jambo tofauti kabisa. Na hii ni Afrika na historia juu "natural resources' si ngeni na inaumiza. Nchi kama Nigeria yenye utajiri mkubwa wa mafuta inafikia watu wanapanga foleni kwenye vituo vya mafuta!!,

    Mabilionea wachache ambao nyumba zao zimezungukwa na ulinzi wa hali ya juu kiasi kwamba kosa la kifundi linaweza kusababisha hata nyumba kulipuka........Sad thing ni kwamba mita kadhaa kuna watu wanaokosa hata mlo mmoja kwa siku.

    Sasa niulize sisi tuna tofauti gani na Wanaijeria? angalau kwa sasa:

    1. Tuna rangi tofauti?
    2. Tuna akili kuwashinda?
    3. Hatuna wauza nchi?
    4. Tuna wanasiasa firm?
    5. Hatujawahi kufanya makosa kwenye maeneo mengine ya rasilimali

    Tunafikri kukaa na walewale walituingiza kwenye zahma zilizopita itaweza kukabili changamoto mpya?
     
  7. Dark City

    Dark City JF-Expert Member

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    Nashauri Zitto auze kwanza hii hoja ndani ya CHADEMA ili wale viongozi wa juu wote wamuelewe, walau kwa 50%. Baada ya hapo, waifanye agenda yao ya kipaumbele. After all, CHADEMA ndio viongozi wa Taifa hili in the next 3 yrs time.

    Hao CCM na serikali yao hawawezi kuelewa kitu kwa sababu hawaongozwi na uchungu kwa nchi yao bali kwa matumbo yao.
     
  8. Kongosho

    Kongosho JF-Expert Member

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    bora hii master plan ikajadiliwe bungeni, na wengine tupate japo copy hata kama tutasemea home tu.

    Makala nzuri.
     
  9. Narubongo

    Narubongo JF-Expert Member

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    Zitto kwenye uzi wako nilipendekeza kuwepo na mijadala huru kupitia TV na radio, Nipo tayari kutoa ushiriki kuelezea ni jinsi gani wenzetu wanapractice & kunufaika na sera za gas, vinginevyo hatutampata mchawi iwapo mtaendelea kutunga sera chumbani.
     
  10. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Yaani Kikwete (mzee wa desa) kawalilia wa Norway wamsaidie kujiandaa na haya mambo, wao ndo wakaona aibu on how improper that request was, considering they are preparing to be some major players themselves.

    Halafu leo tunaona kuna watu wana mawazo mazuri tu ya kuanzia kutoka humuhumu ndani.

    Au ndo kusema Zitto kapewa desa na WaNorway kwa kumuonea huruma Kikwete lakini pia kutotaka kuvunja kanuni za proprietary business competition? Maana Zitto mpaka habari za kupiga vote of no confidence alisema kapata msaada wa Nowegians.

    Just thinking aloud.
     
  11. Kijakazi

    Kijakazi JF-Expert Member

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    James Watson (Nobel Laureate DNA) alisema hivi namnukuu ""I am inherently gloomy about the prospect of Africa [because] all our social policies are based on the fact that their intelligence is the same as ours, whereas all the testing says not really" baada ya kusema hivyo Waafrika Dunia nzima wakaandama na James Watson akafukuzwa kazi lakini ujumbe umefika, sasa wewe jiulize mtu anakwenda kuandika Kitabu kuhusu kusaidia watu wa Bumbuli halafu hao aliowaandikia hawawezi kukisoma na kuelewa kaandika nini, niambie Dunia hii ni wapi wapi unaweza kupata Kiongozi mwenye IQ ndogo namna hiyo? Sasa kukujibu maswali yako ukweli ni kwamba ingawaje unauma lakini hamna JIPYA,

    Angalia kitu kingine Wachina wanafanya mkutano na Serikali hapa Tanzania bango limeandikwa kwa Lugha mbili Kichina na Kiingereza, unajiuliza kwa nini, Wachina waliiambia Serikali kwamba wananchi wao (waishiao TZ) hawawezi kuelewa kilichoandikwa (kiingereza) kwa hiyo ngoja tuandike na Kichina pia na hiyo ni ndani ya Tanzania, hiyo ni mifano midogo sana, na ndio maana mimi sitegemei lolote jipya kwa kiongozi wa Kiafrika/ Tanzania kwa maana, tutaendela tu kufurahishana humu kubadilishana mawazo ndani ya JF kutiana moyo lakini mwisho wa siku hayo Mafuta yatachimbwa na sisi wenyewe tutashirikiana na Wazungu kuyaiba!
     
  12. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    Uliwaki kusikia kuna watu 'hawajui kwamba hawajui'?

    ndoo hiii sasa.....

    XI Jinping ambae ndie the next President wa China alikwenda Marekani
    kuzungumza na Obama but alikuwa na wakalimani teele
    tena yeye chuo kikuu kasomea Marekani na Kiingereza anakijua.....

    sasa hawa akina Zitto na Kikwete hawajui risk za kutumia lugha usiyoilelewa vyema kwenye maswala
    nyeti sana ya Taifa?
    hata mjadala huu kwa Kiingereza sio sahihi achilia mbali miswada ya kisheria na kuwashirikisha wa Norway bila kujiandaa
    sawa sawa
     
  13. F

    FJM JF-Expert Member

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    Kama tunataka kupata kitu cha maana mjadala uanzie huku uraini. Kuwepo na roundatable meetings na wataalam (wapo) wa ndani na nje halafu mapendekezo yatolewe. Bunge letu lilivyo sasa hivi ni uwanja wa mipasho, hakuna la maana litapatikana pale kama msukumo hautatoka huku uraiani.
     
  14. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    I beg to differ.

    Hon. Zitto did the right thing raising this here, after all this is supposed to be a forum for the common Tanzanians. Are you suggesting that this issue is not to be discussed by Tanzanians?

    Are you suggesting it is OK for the Kikwwete administration to request help in formulating this very plan from the Norwegians, but it is not right for Hon. Zitto to air these concerns on an open forum?

    What you fail to understand is, those who may need to use this information maliciously or to the disadvantage of Tanzania have better access through governmental channels, probably better access than Hon. Zitto. Therefore this info could hardly add value to what they either have already, or could very easily acquire.

    Therefore, Zitto keeping this discussion private and "in the proper forums" could only mean that the common Tanzanian is denied information.

    Above all, this piece is nothing new, Zitto did publish this quite some time ago.

    What we need is more transparency, not less.
     
  15. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Burlesque alert:

    Zitto atawapa msemo walioanza kiutani kusema kaandikiwa na wa Norway, kwamba kaandikiwa halafu hakujua hata kutafsiri kwenda Kiswahili.

    Kama si hivyo kwa nini kung'ang'ania Kiingereza?
     
  16. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    Unajua mimi najiuliza kama viongozi wetu wanafuatilia
    hata kwenye tv tu jinsi viongozi wa nchi nyingine walivyo makini na
    wanavyojiandaa na pia matumizi ya lugha na wakalimani wanapokwenda nchi zingine?

    wachina na wamarekani wanapokutana tv zoote zinaonesha na unaona
    wakalimani wanatumika na unasikia wachina hao hao wamesoma Marekani au Uingereza..
    hatujifunzi kabisaa
     
  17. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Burlesque alert:

    Pengine mnakosea mnapofikiri wanawaandikia watu wa Bumbuli na Kigoma. Pengine wanawaandikia donors, NGO generators na venture capitalists walio New York, London, Minneapolis, Dubai, Berlin na Oslo.

    Vinginevyo kwa nini mambo ambayo yanaweza kuwa mazuri yaandikwe kiingereza tu?
     
  18. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Burlesque... aaah, you know the deal.

    Unaweza kuambiwa "Wizara ya Mambo ya Nje haina bajeti ya wakalimani wa Kiswahili na Kiingereza"
     
  19. jmushi1

    jmushi1 JF-Expert Member

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    This view (Resource curse),began to emerge in the 1980s, and gained popularity in the mid-1990s baada ya publication ya Jeffery Sachs and Andrew Warner inayoitwa "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth"

    Other than the economic phenomenon known as "Dutch Disease", There is also the belief that abundant natural resources sparks political conflict and can lead to authoritarian regimes.(Hili ni baya sana unaweza kuona ccm wanavyofanya lolote ili kubaki madarakani)

    Kama umeshafanya research ya kutosha,dutch disease siyo tatizo kwa nchi yetu(LCD, stands for Less Developed County) in terms of resources(gas).It is more likely to happen under the foreign aid(research has been done in Uganda kama sikosei).

    Developed nations(zinazotegemea manufacturing) ambazo ni "mostly industilized", ndizo zimekuwa zikikumbana na dutch disease kuanzia miaka ya 60's ilipoanzia huko Netherlands na hivyo kupelekea kuitwa "Dutch Disease",hadi miaka ya 70 ambapo Muingereza alikuwa ndo exporter mkubwa wa oil.

    Napingana kabisa na hilo la Dutch Disease kwasababu unapolitumia kwenye muktadha wa Natural resource, linakuwa siyo relevant kwasababu negative effect yake(at least kwenye researches),ni manufacturing(de industrialization). Kwasababu kinachotokea ni ku disccourage exportation of other commodities,sasa jiulize kama sisi tuna export vitu gani?Are we industrialized?What is our "other commodities"?Hatuwezi kusema hivyo kwasababu we are not an exporting nation neither are we a manufacturing country.

    Under that assumption however,how it happens,ni kwamba when a country experiences a resource boom due to a tradable resource discovery and/or an increase in a resource price,it normally undergoes a real appreciation of its exchange rate and as a result of rising wages,a relocation of some of the labor force to the resource sector.

    A real appreciation reduces the international competitiveness of other tradable sectors because resource-based exports crowd out commodity exports produced by those sectors kama ulivyosema hapo juu.Sasa ebu niambie ni commodities zipi tulizonazo kwenye different sectors ambazo tuna zi export na kwamba zitakuwa affected?

    Kwa sababu mkuu,kama tunazungumzia Dutch Disease inayotokana na natural resources,basi usisahau kuwa ni huko udachi miaka ya 50 na 60 ambapo discoveries ya natural gas ilipelekea sector ya uzalishaji kupoteza competitiveness.Na wale walikuwa ni maexpoters pamoja na manufacturers kiukweli!

    Gylfason(2002),aliargue kwamba on long term,natural resource abundant countries may register slow down in their growth rates not ony because of the Dutch Disease,but above all,as a result of lacking and/or ill-defined property rights, weak rule of law and imperfect, missing or moonlighting markets in many developing and emerging market economies.Pia extensive "rent seeking" which can reinforce corruption in business and government;and low incentives for human capital accumulation.

    As a result,many people end up stuck in low-skill intensive natural resource based industries.Na kusema ukweli,those are the only characteristics of the vulnerability to the Dutch Disease that is relevant to a nation such as ours.I realy dont see other sectors that can be strangeled by the Dutch Disease occurance.(unaweza kunipati mifano nitashukuru)

    What i think here mh Zitto,it is crucial that policy makers design appropriate macroeconomic policies to successfully deal with such issues.

    I think revenues from booming sector(natural resources), should be used to stimulate productivity improvements in in non-booming sectors as well as upsacaling general infrastructers that are relevant for the broader economic development.

    Additionally,improvements of the "institutional framework",would be essential for the development of a "market based economy" that does not rely on the natural resource sector only. This is because It will help to diversify the production structure of our nation.

    Hilo litasaidia especially on occassion kama vile ikitokea a significant declines in international gas/oil prices.

    My bottomline here,is that some notable features of many Low Income Countries (or LCD if you want),such as ours, are not in line with the assumptions of the core Dutch Disease Theory

    Kuhusiana na IMF,nawashauri tu muwe waangalifu,chombo hicho hakipo kwa maslahi ya taifa letu FYI...Hapo chini nimekuwekea "Top Ten Reasons to oppose the IMF.Nimequote kipengele namba 5,ila the rest utapata ukigonga link.

    Top Ten Reasons to Oppose the IMF | Global Exchange

    Ni hayo tu kwasasa,bado nina endelea kusoma article yako.
     
  20. Queen Esther

    Queen Esther JF-Expert Member

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    Kiranga my bro,first of all to differ with me is your right.

    What I am trying to emphasize is the right forumn. We all know hon. Zitto is from opposition part in the name of CHADEMA, therefore if the matter can be taken more seriously can bring more results. Kiranga you remember issue ya mabadiliko ya Katiba? Why opposition parts cannot team up again and show their uzalendo on this? May be there seeing Hon Zitto preferring one man show and that is why they step back. But again if that is what they are doing for whom's benefit?

    When we discuss issues of natural resources, we should always remember that is where our wealth is. When we talk about poverty and all the good strategies formulated day and night to ensure we improve our economy natural resource has more percentage on this. Again remember this is the time. God didn't give us all those natural resources to be taken away and benefit someone else.

    Transparency is what we are all looking for, but what thereafter? Kila nyumba Ina Siri zake, I believe it is the same to our Govt. As directed by prof, let a team go through those contracts, review them and give us the report. Let me remind you je report ya Bomani iliwekwa publicly after that review, furthermore what are the outcome of the findings and recommendations?. Do we know them in that picture of transparency?

    I still believe we need to support prof on his vision and strategies. If Hon. Zitto can join him for the sake of TZ and sensitivity of the matter, it will be my pleasure and I will thank God for that.

    Anyway that is my opinion.

    Queen Esther
     
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