Takwimu za waliopiga kura 2010 - Angalia, Fikiria, Amua


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Wadau, hebu angalieni hizi takwimu hapa chini halafu mweney kujua atujuze kwa nini mwaka 2010 umekuwa kama outlier, yaani hiyo spike sio ya kawaida, kama unachora graph itakutisha kwa jinsi inavyoshuka ghafula. Can anyome tells me kwa nini iwe hivyo, is there a need ya additional evidence ya kuwaambia NEC kuwa uchaguzi huu ulikuwa batili? na kuwa waliondoa karibu asiimia 30 ya wapiga kura. I want to believe kuwa waliojitokeza kupiga kura mwaka huu walikuwa 80% au zaidi. Loh kweli Dr Slaa aliibiwa kinyama, JK huo sio uungwana mwana

year voter turn out
1965- 77.1%
1970- 72.2%
1975- 81.7%
1980- 75%
1985- 75%
1990- 74.4%
1995- 76.7% (Mkapa won by 61.82%, Mrema got 27.7%)
2000- 84.4%(Mkapa won 71.7%, Lipumba got 16%)
2005- 72.4% (JK won by 81% , Lipumba got 11%)
2010- 42.64%(JK won by 61.17%, Dk. Slaa got 26.34%)

source of data: African elections database Elections in Tanzania
 
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Ni kweli kabisa idadi ya watu waliopiga kura mwaka huu ndogo kiasi cha kusikitisha na ni pigo kubwa kwa demokrasia hapa nchini. Hivyo utafiti wa kisayansi unatakiwa ufanyike ili kuuweka bayana sababu hasa zilizosababisha hali hii. Hata hivyo kwa mtazamo wangu kuna mambo kadhaa ambayo yamechangia kutokea kwa hali hii.

1. Pamoja na kwamba uhamasishaji wa wapiga kura mwaka huu ulikuwa mkubwa kutokana na kuwepo kwa kampeni zenye msisimko kuliko wakati mwingine wowote katika historia, wapiga kura wengi hawakuwa na imani na NEC (Tume ya Uchaguzi) kuwa inaweza kusimamia uchaguzi huru na haki na hivyo kutoona kama kungekuwa na tofauti yoyote ya kupiga kura au la. Hii ilitokana na matukio kadhaa ambayo yako well documented yaliyoonyesha dhahiri NEC kuipendelea CCM (kwa mfano kutokuchukua hatua hata baada ya Chadema kulalamika kwamba mgombea urais wa CCM alikuwa anatoa ahadi ya kitapeli kinyume na Sheria ya Gharama za Uchaguzi).

2. Idadi kubwa ya disenfranchised voters (wanafunzi wa vyuo vya elimu ya juu pamoja na wapiga kura waliokosa majina yao katika vituo ambao walinyimwa haki yao ya kupiga kura).

3. Vitisho vilivyofanywa na vyombo vya ulinzi na usalama hasa kitendo cha JWTZ kutoa taarifa (this was quite unprecedented) ya kuvitaka vyama vya siasa vikubali matokeo YOYOTE yatakayotolewa na NEC kilitafsiriwa na wapiga kura wengi kama ushahidi wa kuwepo kwa mpango kabambe wa kuchakachua kura kwa manufaa ya chama tawala, so it did not matter whether one cast one's vote or not, the outcome had already been decided. And this was vindicated by the infamous Daily News editorial, which dictated that whatever the circumstances, DR SLAA COULD NEVER BECOME TANZANIA'S 5TH PHASE PRESIDENT! (Mind you, Daily News is government's official handout and the president is its de facto editor in chief). Pia kitendo cha Police kupitisha water cannon trucks sehemu mbalimbali kabla ya uchaguzi kiliwafanya wapiga kura wengi wawe scared away na kujiuliza whether voting was worth all the looming trouble.
 
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The most unpopular president ever
 
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Ni kweli kabisa idadi ya watu waliopiga kura mwaka huu ndogo kiasi cha kusikitisha na ni pigo kubwa kwa demokrasia hapa nchini. Hivyo utafiti wa kisayansi unatakiwa ufanyike ili kuuweka bayana sababu hasa zilizosababisha hali hii. Hata hivyo kwa mtazamo wangu kuna mambo kadhaa ambayo yamechangia kutokea kwa hali hii.

1. Pamoja na kwamba uhamasishaji wa wapiga kura mwaka huu ulikuwa mkubwa kutokana na kuwepo kwa kampeni zenye msisimko kuliko wakati mwingine wowote katika historia, wapiga kura wengi hawakuwa na imani na NEC (Tume ya Uchaguzi) kuwa inaweza kusimamia uchaguzi huru na haki na hivyo kutoona kama kungekuwa na tofauti yoyote ya kupiga kura au la. Hii ilitokana na matukio kadhaa ambayo yako well documented yaliyoonyesha dhahiri NEC kuipendelea CCM (kwa mfano kutokuchukua hatua hata baada ya Chadema kulalamika kwamba mgombea urais wa CCM alikuwa anatoa ahadi ya kitapeli kinyume na Sheria ya Gharama za Uchaguzi).

2. Idadi kubwa ya disenfranchised voters (wanafunzi wa vyuo vya elimu ya juu pamoja na wapiga kura waliokosa majina yao katika vituo ambao walinyimwa haki yao ya kupiga kura).

3. Vitisho vilivyofanywa na vyombo vya ulinzi na usalama hasa kitendo cha JWTZ kutoa taarifa (this was quite unprecedented) ya kuvitaka vyama vya siasa vikubali matokeo YOYOTE yatakayotolewa na NEC kilitafsiriwa na wapiga kura wengi kama ushahidi wa kuwepo kwa mpango kabambe wa kuchakachua kura kwa manufaa ya chama tawala, so it did not matter whether one cast one's vote or not, the outcome had already been decided. And this was vindicated by the infamous Daily News editorial, which dictated that whatever the circumstances, DR SLAA COULD NEVER BECOME TANZANIA'S 5TH PHASE PRESIDENT! (Mind you, Daily News is government's official handout and the president is its de facto editor in chief). Pia kitendo cha Police kupitisha water cannon trucks sehemu mbalimbali kabla ya uchaguzi kiliwafanya wapiga kura wengi wawe scared away na kujiuliza whether voting was worth all the looming trouble.
Nakubaliana na wewe kwa kiasi kikubwa, kama tunataka kuimarisha demokrsia nchi utafiti wa kina unahitajika ingawa baadhi ya majibu tayari tunayo mkononi. Lakini kama hatutaki tutegemee yaliyotokea kujirudia mwaka 2015.

Ninachojua waliojitokeza ni wengi kuliko miaka yote iliyopita ki- idadi(quantity) hata ki asilimia(quality), tatizo NEC ilikuwa imeshapanga tayari matokeo kichwani. Kwa mahesabu ya kawaida Tanzania haiwezi kuwa na wapiga kura Mil. 20 yaani nusu ya watanzania wote impossible that is next to impossible ukizingatia takwimu za UN kuwa nusu ya watanzania wako chini ya umri wa miaka 18.

NEC walitaka kulazimisha asilimia walizozipanga wao ikashindikana, kwa akili ya kawaida wapiga kura Tanzania hawawezi kuzidi Mil. 13 kiasi kwamba hata zingeharibika 3% wapiga kura halali wangekuwa at least 12,500,000 na kama waliojitokeza mwaka huu ni Mil. 8.5 asilimia ingekuwa approx. 70%.

Mimi sikubali kama watu hawakujitokeza, walijitokeza ila makadirio ya NEC yalikuwa mabaya poor aproximations, sitaki kusema walitakadiria kiwango cha juu ili waje kuongeza kura zao.

Utaratibu wao wa kuficha daftari ni mbovu haufai, vile vile umesababisha watu wengi kutoona majina yao. Hilo daftari linatakiwa liwe wazi mtu kuhakiki jina lake kwa kipindi kirefu hata mwaka mmoja kabla ya uchaguzi, sasa unapotoa daftari siku tano kabla ya uchaguzi unategemea nini hasa watu wa vijijini. Ndiyo Kiravu alijitetea kuwa watu hawaoni majina yao kwa sababu hawaangalii vizuri, ila yeye akipigiwa simu anawaelekeza hadi page lilipo sasa anategemea atafanya kazi hiyo kwa watu wangapi au wangapi watakuwa na uwezo wa kwenda ofisi za NEC kama alivyofanya Mbatia haiwezekani.

In short watu wa kulaumiwa ni NEC hawakuwa makini, labda niseme either NEC hawana uwezo na ujuzi wa handle data kubwa kiasi hicho au waliruhusu watu wasio na taaluma kuingilia daftari kwa makusudi ama NEC ni wazembe.
 
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Takwimu za NEC zina mushkeli sana. Huenda turnout ilikuwa kubwa, ila shida ilikuwa ni namba halizi ya waliopiga kura againts hizo takwimu feki za hao NEC.
 
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Takwimu za NEC zina mushkeli sana. Huenda turnout ilikuwa kubwa, ila shida ilikuwa ni namba halizi ya waliopiga kura againts hizo takwimu feki za hao NEC.
Well said. The problem here is not much with the NEC figures but the conduct of the polls. The reported low voter turnout shows how an organized attempt to steal an election can kill democracy and consequently lead to anarchy. Study of the demographics of Tanzania (with the current population estimated at 44m), shows the following age structure, which is well in conformity with the NEC's reported number of registered voters (about 20 million):
0–14 years: 43%
15–64 years: 54.1%
65 years and over: 2.9% [(2009 est.) - Source: CIA World Factbook]
 
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Taarifa na takwimu uchaguzi wa Tanzania


Watanzania walipiga kura tarehe 31 Oktoba 2010. Uchaguzi huo ulikuwa muhimu kwa nchi hii hasa kwa kuwa chama tawala hakijawahi kutolewa madarakani tangu ilipopata uhuru mwaka 1961. Yafuatayo ni baadhi ya maswala muhimu yanayohusu uchaguzi wa Tanzania 2010.


Tanzania ina idadi kubwa kiasi gani ya wakazi?
Kwa mujibu wa Benki ya Dunia takwimu za mwaka 2008, Tanzania ina wakazi wapatao milioni 42. Umoja wa Mataifa ulikadiria mwaka 2009 kuwa Tanzania ilikuwa na wakazi milioni 43.7.

Watu wangapi walijiandikisha kupiga kura?
Tume ya uchaguzi ya Tanzania ilitangaza kuwa watu waliojiandikisha kupiga kura ni milioni 19, lakini waliojitokeza kupiga kura walikuwa takriban milioni nane au asilimia 42.


Je watanzania walipiga kura siku gani?
Siku ya kupiga kura ilikuwa tarehe 31 Oktoba 2010


Kampeni zilianza lini?
Kampeni za uchaguzi wa Tanzania zilianza Agosti 31, na kumalizika tarehe 30 Oktoba 2010.


Kuna wagombea wangapi wa kiti cha Rais?
Kwa kiti cha Rais wa Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania kulikuwa na wagombea saba, vile vile katika uchaguzi wa Rais wa Zanzibar kulikuwa na wagombea saba pia.


Tanzania ina majimbo mangapi ya uchaguzi?
Kwa Tanzania na Bara na Zanziba kuna jumla ya majimbo ya ubunge 239


Je Rais na wabunge hukaa madarakani kwa miaka mingapi?
Kwa mujibu wa katiba ya Tanzania, Rais huchaguliwa na kuwepo madarakani kwa muda wa miaka mitano kabla ya uchaguzi mwingine kufanyika. Sheria hiyo hutumika kwa wabunge na madiwani.


Jina kamili ni nini?
Nchi hii hutambulika kama Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania kwa shughuli rasmi.


Je Tanzania ukubwa wa nchi kiasi gani?
Tanzania ina ukubwa wa kilometa za mraba 945,087.


Lugha Rasmi ni zipi?
Lugha zinazotumika kwa shughuli rasmi ni Kiingereza na Kiswahili.


Dini kubwa ni zipi?
Ingawa kuna dini nyingine ndogo ndogo, idadi kubwa ya watanzania ni wakristu na waislamu.
 
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Hapo kwenye takwimu za watu, hivi wanaangalia na takwimu za watu wanaofariki kila siku na wanawatoa kwenye idadi au ndo zinakuwa takwimu za ongezeko tu???
idani ya wapiga kura inanipa shaka kuhusu ongezeko la watu nchini
 
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unajua me napata hofu kwamba hizi takwimu ni za kupika zaidi.mwanzoni walisema waliojiandikisha ni mil19 wakati wa kutangaza matokeo wakafika ml 20!inakera kuwa na watu wasio makini ktk serikali yetu
 
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unajua me napata hofu kwamba hizi takwimu ni za kupika zaidi.mwanzoni walisema waliojiandikisha ni mil19 wakati wa kutangaza matokeo wakafika ml 20!inakera kuwa na watu wasio makini ktk serikali yetu

Rais wa Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania (Kikwete) hayuko makini
sembuse waliokunywa uji wa mgonjwa.
 
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ipo siku Mungu aliye hai atayafuta machozi yetu watz.real inauma sana.jamani tuwe makini ktk kila jambo tunalolifanya.naamini kila mtu akisimama ktk nafasi yake vizuri bila uzembe taifa litanyanyuka.tutiane moyo sisi kwa sisi tutaweza
 
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ipo siku Mungu aliye hai atayafuta machozi yetu watz.real inauma sana.jamani tuwe makini ktk kila jambo tunalolifanya.naamini kila mtu akisimama ktk nafasi yake vizuri bila uzembe taifa litanyanyuka.tutiane moyo sisi kwa sisi tutaweza
Hivi nchi hii hakuna vijana wazalendo?
 
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Taarifa na takwimu uchaguzi wa Tanzania


Watanzania walipiga kura tarehe 31 Oktoba 2010. Uchaguzi huo ulikuwa muhimu kwa nchi hii hasa kwa kuwa chama tawala hakijawahi kutolewa madarakani tangu ilipopata uhuru mwaka 1961. Yafuatayo ni baadhi ya maswala muhimu yanayohusu uchaguzi wa Tanzania 2010.


Tanzania ina idadi kubwa kiasi gani ya wakazi?
Kwa mujibu wa Benki ya Dunia takwimu za mwaka 2008, Tanzania ina wakazi wapatao milioni 42. Umoja wa Mataifa ulikadiria mwaka 2009 kuwa Tanzania ilikuwa na wakazi milioni 43.7.

Watu wangapi walijiandikisha kupiga kura?
Tume ya uchaguzi ya Tanzania ilitangaza kuwa watu waliojiandikisha kupiga kura ni milioni 19, lakini waliojitokeza kupiga kura walikuwa takriban milioni nane au asilimia 42.


Je watanzania walipiga kura siku gani?
Siku ya kupiga kura ilikuwa tarehe 31 Oktoba 2010


Kampeni zilianza lini?
Kampeni za uchaguzi wa Tanzania zilianza Agosti 31, na kumalizika tarehe 30 Oktoba 2010.


Kuna wagombea wangapi wa kiti cha Rais?
Kwa kiti cha Rais wa Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania kulikuwa na wagombea saba, vile vile katika uchaguzi wa Rais wa Zanzibar kulikuwa na wagombea saba pia.


Tanzania ina majimbo mangapi ya uchaguzi?
Kwa Tanzania na Bara na Zanziba kuna jumla ya majimbo ya ubunge 239


Je Rais na wabunge hukaa madarakani kwa miaka mingapi?
Kwa mujibu wa katiba ya Tanzania, Rais huchaguliwa na kuwepo madarakani kwa muda wa miaka mitano kabla ya uchaguzi mwingine kufanyika. Sheria hiyo hutumika kwa wabunge na madiwani.


Jina kamili ni nini?
Nchi hii hutambulika kama Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania kwa shughuli rasmi.


Je Tanzania ukubwa wa nchi kiasi gani?
Tanzania ina ukubwa wa kilometa za mraba 945,087.


Lugha Rasmi ni zipi?
Lugha zinazotumika kwa shughuli rasmi ni Kiingereza na Kiswahili.


Dini kubwa ni zipi?
Ingawa kuna dini nyingine ndogo ndogo, idadi kubwa ya watanzania ni wakristu na waislamu.
convolution kikwete amechaguliwa na robo y watanzania wenye uwezo wa kupiga kura, so hafai kuwa rais wetu otherwise awe rais wa hao robo...nawasilisha
 
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convolution kikwete amechaguliwa na robo y watanzania wenye uwezo wa kupiga kura, so hafai kuwa rais wetu otherwise awe rais wa hao robo...nawasilisha
Mimi sio Rais wangu kwa maana tangu anaingia madarakani sijawahi kumpigia kura.

Siwezi kumpa kura yangu mwizi na anayekubali wezi wenzie wazidi kuibia Watanzania.

Hafai kuwa Rais anafaa kuwa chekibobu na kukenua kenua tu.
 
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Gamba la Nyoka

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nadhani kuna watu walijiandikisha kupiga kura lakini hawakuwa na sifa za mpiga kura(mathalani watoto under 18), kumbukeni kuwa kipindi cha mwisho cha kujiandikisha ndo kulikuwa na zoezi la kusajili simu lilikuwa linaendelea, na ili usajili simu yako ilibidi uwe na kitambulisho fulani, ndo nadhani wengine wakajiandikisha ili wakipate hicho kitambulisho cha mpiga kura. Kuna kituo fulani ulikuwa ukienda kujiandikishwa, huulizwi document yoyote ya kuonyesha kwamba wewe ni mtanzania, na una umri gani. sasa mapungufu kama haya iwapo yalikuwepo na ktk vituo vingine ni dhahiri waliojiandikisha watakuwa wengi kuliko hali halisi
 
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Hivi mwaka 2005 walipiga kura watu wangapi kiujumla against ya waliojiandikisha na JK alishinda kwa kura ngapi?
 
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mbona mimi watu wengi ambao nawafahamu wamepiga kura mwaka huu?
vijana wengi wamepiga kura sana mwaka huu hii ni addition kwa watu wengine?
mbona magazeti yote ya nov 1 yaliandika high turn out?
iwaje matokeo yaonyeshe low turn out? something is wrong somewhere
mimi naamini ilikuwa more than 10m voters wali turn out
 
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Wadau, hebu angalieni hizi takwimu hapa chini halafu mweney kujua atujuze kwa nini mwaka 2010 umekuwa kama outlier, yaani hiyo spike sio ya kawaida, kama unachora graph itakutisha kwa jinsi inavyoshuka ghafula. Can anyome tells me kwa nini iwe hivyo, is there a need ya additional evidence ya kuwaambia NEC kuwa uchaguzi huu ulikuwa batili? na kuwa waliondoa karibu asiimia 30 ya wapiga kura. I want to believe kuwa waliojitokeza kupiga kura mwaka huu walikuwa 80% au zaidi. Loh kweli Dr Slaa aliibiwa kinyama, JK huo sio uungwana mwana

year voter turn out
1965- 77.1%
1970- 72.2%
1975- 81.7%
1980- 75%
1985- 75%
1990- 74.4%
1995- 76.7% (Mkapa won by 61.82%, Mrema got 27.7%)
2000- 84.4%(Mkapa won 71.7%, Lipumba got 16%)
2005- 72.4% (JK won by 81% , Lipumba got 11%)
2010- 42.64%(JK won by 61.17%, Dk. Slaa got 26.34%)

source of data: African elections database Elections in Tanzania
Hiyo inatokana na majina hewa yaliyoingizwa na CCM via neck. Ilikuwa ni mpango kabambe wa uchakachuaji
 
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Wadau, hebu angalieni hizi takwimu hapa chini halafu mweney kujua atujuze kwa nini mwaka 2010 umekuwa kama outlier, yaani hiyo spike sio ya kawaida, kama unachora graph itakutisha kwa jinsi inavyoshuka ghafula. Can anyome tells me kwa nini iwe hivyo, is there a need ya additional evidence ya kuwaambia NEC kuwa uchaguzi huu ulikuwa batili? na kuwa waliondoa karibu asiimia 30 ya wapiga kura. I want to believe kuwa waliojitokeza kupiga kura mwaka huu walikuwa 80% au zaidi. Loh kweli Dr Slaa aliibiwa kinyama, JK huo sio uungwana mwana

year voter turn out
1965- 77.1%
1970- 72.2%
1975- 81.7%
1980- 75%
1985- 75%
1990- 74.4%
1995- 76.7% (Mkapa won by 61.82%, Mrema got 27.7%)
2000- 84.4%(Mkapa won 71.7%, Lipumba got 16%)
2005- 72.4% (JK won by 81% , Lipumba got 11%)
2010- 42.64%(JK won by 61.17%, Dk. Slaa got 26.34%)

source of data: African elections database Elections in Tanzania
Kumbe Slaa hajamfikia Mrema 1995.
 
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MKUNGA

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half mbona kwa Slaa tu ummweka Dr. mbona kwa Lipumba hukuweka Prof.?
 

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