Serikali ya iran yaanza kuondoa ruzuku kwenye mafuta.......................

[Rutashubanyuma]

Politically Confident, Iran Cuts Subsidies on Prices

By WILLIAM YONG

Published: January 16, 2011

TEHRAN — After months of false starts, dire warnings and political wrangling, Iran has embarked on a sweeping program of cuts in its costly and inefficient system of subsidies on fuel and other essential goods that has put a strain on state finances and held back economic progress for years.

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Atta Kenare/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s subsidy cuts suggest he has consolidated power.

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The government’s success in overcoming political obstacles to make the cuts and its willingness to risk social upheaval suggest that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have consolidated power after the internal fractures that followed his bitterly disputed re-election in 2009 — a development that some analysts believe could influence Iran’s position at nuclear talks in Istanbul this month.
“The initial success of the subsidy reform will increase the regime’s confidence generally,” said Cliff Kupchan, a former State Department official who is now a director at the Washington-based Eurasia Group. “This could make them more assertive in the talks. But more importantly, a confident and unified regime is better positioned to reach consensus on some initial agreement.”
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said recently that international sanctions had slowed Iran’s nuclear program, and the restrictions do seem to have disrupted sectors of the economy, particularly banking and export-related industries. But the sanctions do not seem to be the driving force behind the subsidy cuts.
Iran’s foreign exchange revenues also sank in recent years as oil prices fell from prerecession highs, creating greater budget pressures. But Tehran has long sought to cut the subsidies — even under the reformist administration of President Mohammad Khatami — and particularly for oil.
The logic is compelling: artificially low prices encourage greater consumption, leaving less oil to export for cash. And the higher oil prices rise, the greater the “opportunity costs” in lost exports. But the timing, whether for political or economic reasons, was never right to cut the subsidies.
While the government may be feeling economic pressure now, analysts say, the current program of cuts is principally a sign of its political strength, having vanquished the opposition that sprang up after the 2009 elections and stared down the government’s traditional conservative wing, which has challenged Mr. Ahmadinejad’s authority.
“This was something the two previous administrations wanted to do but could not accomplish,” said Kevan Harris, a graduate student at Johns Hopkins University who has written extensively on Iran’s economy and social welfare system. “Now that the liberals have been sidelined, like any good politician, Ahmadinejad has taken the most popular ideas from the opposing side and implemented them himself.”
The success of the subsidy cuts so far also seems to have contributed to a continuing reassessment of Mr. Ahmadinejad. He emerged in the diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks as something of a sober pragmatist — battling with retrograde forces in the government — rather than as the ranting extremist he seemed when he called for Israel to be wiped off the map. In October 2009, according to one of the cables, he argued for a nuclear compromise promoted by the United States that would have sent uranium out of the country for enrichment. And during the protests following the 2009 elections, he is reported to have argued for more freedom of the press — until a general in the Revolutionary Guards slapped him and shouted, “It is you who created this mess!”
The subsidy cuts, which the International Monetary Fund says have amounted to $4,000 a year for the average Iranian family, began in earnest last month when the rationed price of gasoline jumped to about $1.44 a gallon from just 38 cents. With a ration of only 16 gallons a month at the subsidized rate, most motorists buy the bulk of their fuel now at the even higher market rate of $2.64 per gallon, significantly more than the $1.80 that people pay in nearby Dubai.
In recent weeks, subsidies have also been reduced on flour, water and diesel. But the spike in prices has not provoked the angry protests that followed the introduction of fuel rationing in 2007. The price of bread has tripled, on average, the government says; water, which used to be practically free, now costs between 10 cents and 85 cents per cubic meter, based on a sliding scale under which consumers pay a higher rate the more they use.
The government says these are just the first steps in what it calls an “economic transformation plan” that will also include banking reform, sweeping changes in Iran’s tax and customs system, and ever more privatization of state-owned industries. And with officials already reporting drops in the consumption of gasoline, flour, diesel and electricity, even before the prices were raised, Mr. Ahmadinejad has been exultant.
“I believe that the Imam of Our Time has managed this plan and supports it,” he said in a speech last week, citing the “hidden” 12th imam revered by Shiite Muslims as the embodiment of justice and righteousness.
Iran’s state-directed economy has long been plagued by corruption, inflation, inefficiencies and unemployment, which is particularly high among young people. The problems have damaged Iran’s ability to compete in world markets. Ending state controls and subsidies have long been seen as the first step in reviving a moribund economy that the C.I.A. estimates grew by an anemic 1.5 percent in 2009. Analysts say the unemployment and inflation rates are about 20 percent, nearly double the official figures of 11.8 percent and 12.2 percent respectively.
Energy use was the most obvious place to start in reducing subsidies. Iran’s population has doubled since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, but energy consumption is five times higher. Few educated Iranians still believe in the old Khomeinist doctrine that Iranians have a right to free energy because of their country’s oil wealth.

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[Rutashubanyuma]

The subsidy cuts, which the International Monetary Fund says have amounted to $4,000 a year for the average Iranian family, began in earnest last month when the rationed price of gasoline jumped to about $1.44 a gallon from just 38 cents. With a ration of only 16 gallons a month at the subsidized rate, most motorists buy the bulk of their fuel now at the even higher market rate of $2.64 per gallon, significantly more than the $1.80 that people pay in nearby Dubai.

Nina wasiwasi ya kuwa ugumu wa maisha utaipeleka Iran kule kule kwa watunisia........mapinduzi ya nguvu wa umma.......................

 

[david2010]

:smile-big::frog: Hawa viongozi hawana nia na hawa haja na maisha yetu ndio maana bill ya umeme wameruhusu bila kupinga, wanailipa Dowans mabilioni ya hela, wanawauwa watu wanaodai haki zao ili waonyeshe dhairi walivyo
soma hii
umejifunza nini mazishi ya wafuasi wa Chadema? Send to a friend Thursday, 13 January 2011 21:03 0diggsdigg

Mwenyekiti wa Chadema Freeman Mbowe(mwenye miwani kushoto) na Mbunge wa Arusha mjini, Godbless Lema wakibeba mwili wa Marehemu Omary Ismail kutoka katika chumba cha maiti katika Hospitali ya Mount Meru jijini Arusha

Maelfu ya wakazi wa Arusha na miji jirani juzi walijitokeza na kufanya maandamano makubwa kuliko yote yaliyowahi kufanyika katika historia ya Jiji la Arusha. Lengo la maandamano hayo lilikuwa ni kufanya ibada ya maombolezo ya watu wawili kati ya watatu waliofariki wiki iliyopita kwa kupigwa risasi na polisi wakati wakiandamana kwa amani kushinikiza kurudiwa uchaguzi wa Meya na Naibu Meya wa jiji hilo.

Katika maombolezo hayo, maelfu waliandamana kwa amani kutoka chumba cha kuhifadhia maiti katika Hospitali ya Mount Meru hadi Viwanja vya NMC na kusababisha barabara kadhaa kufungwa.
Ulikuwa umati mkubwa na wa kutisha, ingawa ulikuwa tulivu ajabu.

Lakini jambo la kushangaza ni kuwa katika shughuli zote hizo, hakuna askari yeyote wa polisi aliyekuja kutoa ulinzi kwa hadhara hiyo.
Habari zinasema kuwa baada ya viongozi wa Chadema kuona hakuna ulinzi wa polisi waliamua kujipanga kwa kuteua vijana ambao walifanya kazi za kipolisi, zikiwamo za usalama barabarani kwa kuongoza magari na kufunga baadhi ya barabara ili kuruhusu maandamano hayo makubwa kuelekea katika Viwanja vya NMC ambako ibada ya kuwaombea marehemu ilifanyika.

Haijawahi kutokea katika historia ya nchi yetu maelfu kwa maelfu ya watu kukusanyika na kufanya maandamano ya aina hiyo na kujumuika kufanya ibada au mkutano pasipo polisi kutoa ulinzi. Kitendawili kigumu kutegua ni pale polisi wanapokataza vyama vya siasa na vikundi vingine kuandamana kwa maelezo kuwa wanazo habari za kiintelijensia kuwa maandamano hayo au mikutano hiyo itakuwa na uvunjifu wa amani.

Lakini pia kwa upande mwingine, inawezekana kwamba habari za kiintelijensia huwa kweli zinalisaidia jeshi hilo na huenda ndio sababu juzi liliruhusu kufanyika maandamano na ibada ya kuwaombea marehemu pasipo kutoa ulinzi wowote. Polisi wanaweza kutoa hoja kwamba hawakutoa ulinzi wowote juzi kwa sababu habari za kiintelijensia ziliwaonyesha mapema kuwa shughuli zote hizo zingefanyika salama bila uvunjifu wa amani wa aina yoyote.

Tunasema hivyo kwa mzaha tu. Lakini tunadhani lilikuwa kosa kubwa sana kwa upande wa jeshi hilo kuruhusu shughuli hizo kufanyika bila wao kuwapo, kwa sababu hakuna aliyekuwa na uhakika kwamba hata kama wafuasi wa Chadema na viongozi wao walionyesha polisi dhamira ya kweli kuwa maandamano na ibada hiyo vingefanyika kwa amani, wasingekuwa na uhakika kuwa mwendawazimu, mlevi au mkereketwa wa chama chochote cha siasa asingeweza kukatiza na kuuchokoza umati huo na hivyo kuanzisha vurugu kubwa.

Dhana iliyopo hivi sasa miongoni mwa wananchi kuhusu polisi kushindwa au kukataa kutoa ulinzi kwa shughuli hizo za Arusha juzi, ni kuwa polisi waliogopa kwa kudhani kuwa wangeshambuliwa na waombolezaji ili kulipa kisasi kwa sababu vifo vya marehemu vilitokana na vitendo vyao vya kinyama na kikatili.
Kama picha tuliyochapisha katika ukurasa wa pili wa toleo la leo inavyoonyesha, pengine ndio maana polisi wa usalama barabarani, ambao ni dhahiri kuwa hawakuhusika na mauaji hayo, walijitokeza na kujipanga kandokando ya Barabara ya Afrika Mashariki na kushuhudia bila wasiwasi maandamano hayo yakipita.

Bila shaka kuna mambo mengi tuliyojifunza kutokana na maandamano na mkutano wa ibada ya kuwaombea marehemu hao waliouawa kikatili na polisi wiki iliyopita.
Kweli tumejifunza mengi, lakini somo kubwa ambalo watawala wetu na Jeshi la Polisi nchini wanachopaswa kujifunza ni kwamba wananchi wanataka haki zao za kikatiba sio tu ziheshimiwe bali pia zizingatiwe na kwamba polisi au watawala hawana mamlaka ya kukataza watu kuandamana au kukusanyika kwa kisingizio cha kuwapo habari za kiintelijensia kuwa utakuwapo uvunjifu wa amani.

Kuanzia sasa jukumu la polisi katika suala hili liwe kuongoza na kulinda maandamano na mikutano ya wananchi, sio kujipachika mamlaka ya kuruhusu au kukataa kufanyika kwa shughuli hizo.



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Comments




+2 #7 MNKAI 2011-01-14 16:49 Mimi najua kabisa kua mheshimiwa raisi amejifunza kitu kufuatia mauaji yaliyofanywa kwa raia wasio na hatia kufuatia kipigo kilichofanywa na jeshi la polisi ambalo limekabidhiwa jukum la kulinda amani ya nchi yetu.
Kama hakujifunza kitu ajifunze jambo hili kuwa DAMU iliyomwagwa Arusha ni MBEGU tena imepandwa na DOLA(Mhimili wa serikali)Itachi pu miche na hatimaye MATUNDA ya mbegu hii yatakua dhahili siku moja
Mamshauri Mheshimiwa rais atumie busara alizopea na mungu kutoa tamko lake yeye kama rais mwenywe dhamana na raia.Na kamwe aiwaachie wasio na hekima wala busara kutoa hoja na matamko yasiyowafariji watanzania wenye majonzi badala yake kuchochea hisia kwamba upo MKONO wa CHAMA Tawala
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+2 #6 MBONA, Nyanswi M. 2011-01-14 14:11 Tatizo la viongozi wetu ni kujipachika mamlaka yasiyowahusu, kwani mwenye mamlaka ya kuruhusu kitu kufanyika ndani ya familia ni mzazi, mtaa ni mwenyekiti,wila ya DC, mkoa RC, sasa kama hawa watu waliruhusiwa na kiongozi mkoani na haya maandamano yalifanyika kimkoa kuna tatizo gani hadi wewe wa taifa uingilie? basi hakuna maana ya kua na hawa viongozi wa chini kila kitu kitoke taifani...IMENIUMA SANA
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